Speculation: Armchair Canucks GM: What is your core competitive strategy

[I in the Eye]

See, the thing is, while being innovative and always looking into new ways of decision making and crunching data, there doesn't appear to be much of a lasting legacy brought forward by Gillis in that regard. I think Gillis wanted to really push the envelope in that regard but he didn't really know how to put it into a coherent team managing strategy from top to bottom. I am not sure anyone has really done so in the NHL in a way you can demonstratively say they are and they are getting results because of it.

Gillis had ideas, maybe he is ready to do something more concrete this time around.

He included it in everything from scheduling to player development to contract negotiations and injury recovery, etc.... and finally, to drafting. Maybe some of it was the placebo effect, but the team was very successful over the course of his tenure as GM, including the drafting towards the end was improved once changes implemented. Utilizing the innovative approach involved different departments and department personnel. There are signs that he had a coherent team managing strategy from top to bottom (well, not the very top with Aquilini - dealing with Aquilini effectively is a very important success factor requiring a very delicate and thoughtful approach going forward for anyone in charge, IMO... hopefully, that can be figured out by the GM in his strategy). We'd be much better off today if what he did was continued, instead of being stripped down to operate 30 years in the past. His innovation and looking in new ways of decision making and crunching data didn't have a lasting legacy, because it was belittled and abandoned by his replacement. I wouldn't expect a ripped out tree to keep bearing fruit.

 

[Jay Cee]

I think he was a good manager from top to bottom (ish) but I think his body of work in analyitics was very preliminary. I have not really heard one thing about it besides how coaches were sometimes given some helpful feedback on how certain decisions were statistically poor.

I'm not talking about then vs now in how Benning compares to Gillis. I think we have beaten that one to death.

 

[Cogburn]

Pragmatic. I think we're almost there but we can't start frittering away prospects or picks on win now pieces.

If a deal for a youngish top flight player comes up that we can't refuse, I mean I'm game, but I'm not going to hope we go looking to move the under 25 crowd for anything that comes along.

 

[I in the Eye]

I think he was a good manager from top to bottom (ish) but I think his body of work in analyitics was very preliminary. I have not really heard one thing about it besides how coaches were sometimes given some helpful feedback on how certain decisions were statistically poor.

There was a recent interview where Gillis explained how they used analytics to get more offensive production out of Kesler. That's a quick example of a direct tangible result.

 

[Paulinvancouver]

Keep on keepin’ on!

Dunno what one of your arbitrary categories it fits under... competitive, I guess? Combination competitive/patience?

 

[Jay Cee]

Yup. I had forgotten that one.

I guess what I was getting at as a point was it's would be simplistic to say Gillis had moved the dial on organizational structure in that regard and Beninng just tore it all down and abolished it. Does anyone actually believe that? For stuff like you mentioned, I am sure they are helping players to this day with such things. That is Wall's only job isn't it?

 

[I in the Eye]

Yup. I had forgotten that one.

I guess what I was getting at as a point was it's would be simplistic to say Gillis had moved the dial on organizational structure in that regard and Beninng just tore it all down and abolished it. Does anyone actually believe that? For stuff like you mentioned, I am sure they are helping players to this day with such things. That is Wall's only job isn't it?

I'm sure the department still exists... like I'm sure the FBI and the DOJ still exists in the States. If quality information is being supplied, that's fantastic... but need the buy in from the ultimate decision maker. I think there's evidence that suggests that analytics isn't being used for advantage, even if it is being provided.

 

[MarkMM]

Yup. I had forgotten that one.

I guess what I was getting at as a point was it's would be simplistic to say Gillis had moved the dial on organizational structure in that regard and Beninng just tore it all down and abolished it. Does anyone actually believe that? For stuff like you mentioned, I am sure they are helping players to this day with such things. That is Wall's only job isn't it?

To some degree there's the anecdotal stuff about how under Gillis the Canucks had an exclusive deal with the analytics company Stathletes which was discontinued under Benning (not sure on whose end the exclusivity ended, but early on Linden and Benning seemed to talk down their trust in analytics, which is fair, if their own judgement wasn't provably so awful).

 

[Bitz and Bites]

You are grossly overrating Markstrom, and seriously underrating the value of the 4th overall pick. Goalies just don't get traded for picks like this. Schneider was pretty much a one-off, and the offer for Miller in 2015 was largely because of Miller's pedigree. Even the offer with the 10th overall pick might not be enough to get it done.

Benning wasted cap space buying Eriksson for free. I'm proposing adding an 8th overall pick to take on the Lucic contract for 4 years.

Adding Bowen Byram and Matthew Boldy in the draft, while keeping next year's 1st round pick which should be high would be a huge boost to a rebuild. I would wait until before the expansion draft to buy out Lucic, which also gives some time to see if there are any additional compliance buyouts offered in an upcoming CBA.

Maybe we don't get a top 10 pick for Markstrom but Lehner (21st OA) and Martin Jones were both traded for first round picks and Jones was still a back up at that point.We need to get more value out of Markstrom than a throw in to move up in the draft.Thanks to Benning,we have almost nothing of any value to trade except Marky and we need to get value from a team that needs a #1 goaltender and is willing to pay the price.

I'd love to get Edmonton's 8th OA pick and would do whatever it took to make that happen but I doubt the Oil trade it to move Lucic and I doubt Lucic waives to come to VanCity.Also,do we even have the cap space to do that with Eriksson,Spooner, and Schaller on the roster and virtually untradeable unless we take back something just as bad?

 

[drax0s]

Early on - probably entirely Visionary - a complete tear-down rebuild with all the 2011 core pieces traded away for picks over 2-4 years with a heavy investment in scouting and player development. Now? I'm probably a combination of patient and pragmatic because I think we're too far along and I don't think Aquilini will be sold on rebuild 2.0.

We have a few young assets that I feel are "hits" (Boeser / Pettersson / Horvat / Hughes(?) / Demko(?) ) that we can / are forced to to build around. We're kind of at the point where we need to start pruning the dead weight and find something that matches up with that new core's peak years. Horvat's 24 - that puts our timeline at ~4 years? Any longer and we're probably forced into mediocrity / rebuild 2.0. I figure we need to find 3-5 more young, contributing pieces to our roster above replacement level either via either drafting or trades.

1. Invest heavily in drafting and player development. Our draft picks that go through our prospect pipeline in Utica need to be good picks and properly developed into NHL players within that window. Prospects should be knocking on the NHL door within their first 1-3 years in our system.
2. Invest heavily in pro scouting. We're at the point where if we pull any more Gudbranson / Sutter - we're forced into mediocrity / rebuild 2.0.
3. We can probably survive one more year finishing low in the standings. Year 1 - anyone not part of the future gets traded for draft picks at the deadline. I'd probably still keep around Edler, but Horvat is likely all the leadership we need. Showcase certain players that aren't part of that 3-4 year timeline and pick up solid picks and prospects. Limit the reclamation projects to change of scenery trades if no other offer is available.
4. All that sports science stuff Gillis was good at is more geared towards putting a good core over the top. That focus comes once we have something to work with.

Even with all that, I'd expect to be fired in year 2-3. There's a lot of variance in our future - do we win a draft lottery or not. Do our prospects develop or not.

 

[Hit the post]

Maybe we don't get a top 10 pick for Markstrom but Lehner (21st OA) and Martin Jones were both traded for first round picks and Jones was still a back up at that point.We need to get more value out of Markstrom than a throw in to move up in the draft.Thanks to Benning,we have almost nothing of any value to trade except Marky and we need to get value from a team that needs a #1 goaltender and is willing to pay the price.

I'd love to get Edmonton's 8th OA pick and would do whatever it took to make that happen but I doubt the Oil trade it to move Lucic and I doubt Lucic waives to come to VanCity.Also,do we even have the cap space to do that with Eriksson,Spooner, and Schaller on the roster and virtually untradeable unless we take back something just as bad?

Lehner and Jones were also several years younger when they were dealt (at least compared to Markstrom). 25/26 vs 29 for Marky.

 

[tantalum]

You have to be patient-pragmatic. You need to add bonafide core pieces via free agency if you can but still maintain conservatism when it comes to your picks. And be core I mean Panarin players not Myers or Ferland players.

I don’t feel they can be visionary at this point. If they go that route you are going to run the risk of losing a couple of the 4 core players you currently have. They’ve been forced into working with the few pieces they have.

The problem is that for patient-pragmatic to work you truly need a good GM. Not just a competent one but actually top notch. Note that Benning can not be described by any of those words....he’s incompetent.

If Benning is at the helm you have no choice but to hope a visionary course is being plotted (it’s not).

 

[dwarf]

Well I think you have to keep and acquire as many picks as possible when rebuilding. At least we are not trading first round picks, which is to me the epitome of idiocy.

All the seconds we have given away is almost akin to trading firsts, but at least its only a quick puke at the idiocy, and not suicide.

I was very impressed this year with Roussel. I know he was injured to start the year, and the upcoming one, but have to give kudos when its due. Roussel, and Bo, were the hardest workers on the team.

Hopefully the guys who want to become core players here, understand the sheer amount of hard work it takes in the gym and off season training, to play first line minutes. You have to be in the best shape of your life every year to make the big dollars.

I hope we let Edler walk, unless he is fine with a no trade clause. He has been a good soldier here, but he is just mentor ship at this point, and we have enough players doing that. Would love to see him moved to a contender for a high pick if he does come back.

I am not sure how the Seattle expansion draft is going to work. Are we going to lose one of Markstrom or Demko at the end of the season to them? If so one has to be moved now, and it has to be Markstrom.

Really wish we could get the shovel out, and move on from Bartschi, Granlund, Beagle, Sutter, Eriksson, and Spooner. Sure wish there was someone out there willing to take these players. As it is I see them as having negative value, because of being overpaid, and it would cost picks to move them.

Picking 10th is not great this year. I am thinking you can hope for Podkolzin to drop and you never know he may. Lars lindgren might have a good idea as to what to expect from Soderstrom. Guess we will see.

 

[clunk]

Visionary. I wouldn't let one player in Horvat stop that plan. You brought in a failure of a front office, learn from it. We're going to lose some prime Horvat years because of that. That is something we have to live with. Build through the draft, weaponize cap space and think for the long term until you have the core young pieces to win with. We still need at least 2 more top 6 forwards, a top pairing d-man and another top 4 before I am comfortable inserting veteran talent into what we already have. I don't want to be mediocre. If we want to win a cup, it takes patience. Patience is something I have as long as we don't have a dinosaur in charge.

 

[BROCK HUGHES]

Visionary--i would love a GM with a vision for this team.Not a Gm who has built a team thinking that they are competitive and aggressive as we speak with a roster full of garbage.
If we go into next season and still have the likes of Sutters,Eriksson,Tanev,Beartschi,Beagle,Grandlund,Spooner.Then we know that this team has no vision.We will only be competing for ping pong balls again,not the playoffs.

 

[Balls Mahoney]

You are grossly overrating Markstrom, and seriously underrating the value of the 4th overall pick. Goalies just don't get traded for picks like this. Schneider was pretty much a one-off, and the offer for Miller in 2015 was largely because of Miller's pedigree. Even the offer with the 10th overall pick might not be enough to get it done.

Benning wasted cap space buying Eriksson for free. I'm proposing adding an 8th overall pick to take on the Lucic contract for 4 years.

Adding Bowen Byram and Matthew Boldy in the draft, while keeping next year's 1st round pick which should be high would be a huge boost to a rebuild. I would wait until before the expansion draft to buy out Lucic, which also gives some time to see if there are any additional compliance buyouts offered in an upcoming CBA.

I'm lukewarm on trading Markstrom but if ever you were going to do it, this would be the time. Selling him at peak value would be a good thing if he's not the guy who's going to be leading this team deep in three-five years.

 

[vancityluongo]

You have to be patient-pragmatic. You need to add bonafide core pieces via free agency if you can but still maintain conservatism when it comes to your picks. And be core I mean Panarin players not Myers or Ferland players.

I don’t feel they can be visionary at this point. If they go that route you are going to run the risk of losing a couple of the 4 core players you currently have. They’ve been forced into working with the few pieces they have.

The problem is that for patient-pragmatic to work you truly need a good GM. Not just a competent one but actually top notch. Note that Benning can not be described by any of those words....he’s incompetent.

If Benning is at the helm you have no choice but to hope a visionary course is being plotted (it’s not).

I don't think they're really at risk of wasting the prime of core players in the sense that I don't think having a 30 year old Bo Horvat is a problem if you can supplement him with more core players between 20-24.

Look at the Caps - they won with Ovechkin at 32 and Backstrom at 30, largely because they had Holtby, Kuznetsov and Carlson in that 24-28 year old "prime" to support.

Essentially, if we can't replace the downgrade in production between Bo's age 25 season and his age 30 season with another Bo Horvat-like player to replace the current Markus Granlund in that role - we're not going anywhere anyways.

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Lehner and Jones were also several years younger when they were dealt (at least compared to Markstrom). 25/26 vs 29 for Marky.

True enough but Markstrom is more established and teams looking for immediate help to win now might look at his longer NHL track record as a plus.
Also,Lehner and Jones were at the age where they’re approaching UFA status so it’s not like the aquiring team was getting the benefit of several years or RFA control to make that a factor.

 

[Hit the post]

True enough but Markstrom is more established and teams looking for immediate help to win now might look at his longer NHL track record as a plus.
Also,Lehner and Jones were at the age where they’re approaching UFA status so it’s not like the aquiring team was getting the benefit of several years or RFA control to make that a factor.

I can't disagree with that.

 

[tantalum]

I don't think they're really at risk of wasting the prime of core players in the sense that I don't think having a 30 year old Bo Horvat is a problem if you can supplement him with more core players between 20-24.

Look at the Caps - they won with Ovechkin at 32 and Backstrom at 30, largely because they had Holtby, Kuznetsov and Carlson in that 24-28 year old "prime" to support.

Essentially, if we can't replace the downgrade in production between Bo's age 25 season and his age 30 season with another Bo Horvat-like player to replace the current Markus Granlund in that role - we're not going anywhere anyways.

I just don’t think you can go right back to square one. I’m not thinking age is an issue but rather the patience of the players themselves. I think it’s time to take some cautious steps forward. Not all in or anything but it has to move beyond visionary or at least how I interpret visionary.

You protect your picks and even grab more if you can for the spare parts. You don’t sign decent to good players for specific needs. They aren’t in the place of they have chance if only they can find that #4 d-man or top 6 winger at the deadline or July 1. That’s where you make the Ferland signing.

They need to add core pieces yet...through the draft for sure but I think they should also feel free to find core pieces through free agency and even perhaps trade if possible. Last summer I wasn’t in that headspace. That has changed with Pettersson and Hughes.

 

[ChilliBilly]

The player that we can trade looking to the future is Horvat. Trade him to a contender. A prospect 2 1sts and a 2nd would do it for me. (A contender would mean those are late 1sts)

 

[rypper]

Visionary should be the strategy but even then we're a few years behind of when that should have started.

 

[ginner classic]

At this point, my strategy would be more about rebuilding behind the scenes in the immediate and then incorporating long-term building for the team.

I wouldn't get hired by Aquillini because I would demand a lot of sweeping changes and budget/resources up front.

Short-Term

- Hire advanced analytics scouting division
- Hire top sport psychologists and performance specialists to monitor the team
- Hire a Gilman-like numbers specialist to manage cap affairs, contracts and number haboos
- Make Utica winning the Calder Cup within three years a top emphasis within the organization with all the resources and personnel necessary to make that happen

Long-Term

- Sell off any player who won't be here or won't be productive within three years for futures as productive opportunities arise. No one leaves for free.
- Acquire as many draft picks as possible
- Shift from a good ol' boy scouting system to a more analytical scouting system
- Hire former Canucks to monitor and work with Canucks prospects before they enter the system (steal the Red Wings model)
- Make winning a Stanley Cup within five years a top emphasis

How you would manage the team and what you would do to execute was not really the question. Maybe I worded it poorly. Essentially these are phases. How should we be viewing the team today and what should be the generic approach?

I don't disagree with the tactics you suggested.

No matter which of the five approaches you believe we should be taking though, hiring smarter people in all roles is a must, analytics is a must, player development is a must. I don't care if we are contenders or rebuilding. We should aim to excel in all of those areas. There is no salary cap on non player salaries.

 

[zcaptain]

Well, I think it was pragmatic

I would like Benning to do a review, of what is working and what is not.....and what he can do to improve

Amateur Drafting.......B+...…………………...Great picks in general
Pro Signing...…………..C+ ………………...…..Hire new pro-scouts
Contract resolution....C....…………………….Hire a cap guru
Asset Management.....C...……………………..Review and adjust
Farm Team...…………..C-...…………………….Investigate and Review

I would like to see assets like Markstrom, Hutton, Tanev, Sutter, Baertschi all moved for picks
(hopefully 2019 Picks)

I would like to see some ingenuity in making these trades...……….example
Player B = 3rd pick...………...so package that with an extra 3rd Round to obtain a 2nd

I would like to see aggressive use of our extra Cap space...………..example
Cap dump player + 1st for Canucks 2nd (buy 1 year contracts)

If signing a UFA, make it a 26 year old, high end UFA...…..no middle or bottom type
(Does not have to be Panarin or Karlson)
Sign for 5 or 6 years depending on current skill level and in consultation with new head of Pro scouting

Benning needs to get to Utica, review what veterans are needed, review how the coaching staff is using them
and investigates why players are requesting trades or leave...adjust according

In general, I like the Canucks direction, but in some cases, we should trade players who have solid years
No more, being in love with a player, as it muddies the direction the team should be heading in, if that player
should be traded.....No more NTC's

 

[Hit the post]

Farm Team...…………..C-...…………………….Investigate and Review

That's being pretty charitable. When Gaunce is among your better forwards there, you stink pretty bad.