Horse Racing: Arkansas Derby day recap: $41,000,000 bet, Nadal and Charlatan win Ky. Derby preps

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The current leader boards for the Kentucky Oaks and Derby:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/triple-crown/road-to-the-kentucky-derby/2020

Derby
#	Horse	Points	Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings	Career Earnings	Trainer	Breeder/Owner
1	Authentic Into Mischief—Flawless	60	$300,000	$331,200	Bob Baffert	Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Hertrich, III, Frederick, Fielding, John D. and Golconda Stables
2	Ete Indien Summer Front—East India	54	$285,156	$333,156	Patrick Biancone	Robert B. Tillyer & Eric Buckley Shanahan, Linda, Bacon, Sanford, Dream With Me Stable, Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC and Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC
3	Mischevious Alex Into Mischief—White Pants Night	50	$308,410	$344,230	John Servis	WinStar Farm, LLC Cash is King LLC
4	Modernist Uncle Mo—Symbolic Gesture	50	$240,000	$288,800	William Mott	Wygod Family, LLC Wygod, Pam and Martin
5	Enforceable Tapit—Justwhistledixie	33	$264,550	$347,150	Mark Casse	Clearsky Farms John C. Oxley
6	Storm the Court Court Vision—My Tejana Storm	32	$1,196,351	$1,232,951	Peter Eurton	Stepping Stone Farm Exline-Border Racing LLC, Bernsen, David A., Wilson, Susanna and Hudock, Dan
7	Sole Volante Karakontie—Light Blow	30	$243,510	$266,310	Patrick Biancone	Flaxman Holdings Limited Biancone, Andie and Limelight Stables Corp.
8	Thousand Words Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol	25	$205,000	$235,000	Bob Baffert	Hardacre Farm Jerome S. Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC
9	Tiz the Law Constitution—Tizfiz	22	$456,000	$498,900	Barclay Tagg	Twin Creeks Farm Sackatoga Stable
10	Silver Prospector Declaration of War—Tap Softly	21	$654,851	$713,051	Steven Asmussen	Hargus Sexton, Sandra Sexton &Silver Fern Farm, LLC Paul P. Orr, Ed and Orr, Susie
11	Honor A. P. Honor Code—Hollywood Story	20	$80,000	$122,200	John Shirreffs	George Krikorian C R K Stable LLC
12	Major Fed Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe	20	$80,000	$116,500	Gregory Foley	Lloyd Madison IV, LLC Lloyd Madison Farms, IV LLC
13	Candy Tycoon Twirling Candy—Liberty's Lyric	20	$76,000	$134,600	Todd Pletcher	Jerry Romans Jr. Mathis Stable LLC
14	Untitled Khozan—Cindy Says	20	$67,275	$95,675	Mark Casse	Brent Fernung, Crystal Fernung,Mike Sebastian Jr. & Mike Sebastian Barber, Gary and Sebastian, Michael B.
15	Shotski Blame—She Cat	19	$212,466	$236,222	Jeremiah O'Dwyer	Springland Farm & Prime Bloodstock LLC Wachtel Stable, Barber, Gary, Pantofel Stable and Karty, Mike
16	Independence Hall Constitution—Kalahari Cat	14	$205,000	$250,000	Michael Trombetta	Woodford Thoroughbreds Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC, Verratti, Kathleen and Verratti, Robert N.
17	Silver State Hard Spun—Supreme	14	$80,000	$136,106	Steven Asmussen	Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC
18	Azul Coast Super Saver—Sky Treasure	14	$80,000	$104,000	Bob Baffert	SF Bloodstock, LLC Watson, Karl, Pegram, Michael E. and Weitman, Paul
19	Shoplifted Into Mischief—Shopit	13	$388,500	$438,000	Steven Asmussen	Machmer Hall, Carrie Brogden &Craig Brogden Cheyenne Stables, LLC, Grandview Equine and LNJ Foxwoods
20	Anneau d'Or Medaglia d'Oro—Walk Close	12	$385,000	$403,000	Blaine Wright	Highland Yard LLC Peter Redekop B. C., Ltd.
21	Maxfield Street Sense—Velvety	10	$300,000	$354,412	Brendan Walsh	Godolphin Godolphin, LLC

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OAKS
#	Horse	Points	Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings	Career Earnings
1	Finite	70	$524,349	$638,349
2	Tonalist's Shape	60	$256,680	$309,390
3	Water White	54	$175,375	$234,275
4	British Idiom	50	$1,400,000	$1,441,250
5	Shedaresthedevil	50	$225,600	$297,648
6	Bast	34	$840,000	$852,200
7	Alta's Award	20	$60,000	$119,550
8	Kansas Kis	20	$53,750	$141,650
9	Spice Is Nice	20	$38,400	$64,200
10	Motu	16	$98,200	$161,257

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Remember, this was Gamine's maiden race. The accolades are aplenty. Beyer figures for Saturday at Santa Anita were revealed today:

Combatant = 98, G1 Sana Anita Handicap
Authentic = 98, G2 San Felipe Stakes
Flagstaff = 96, G2 San Carlos Stakes
River Boyne = 99 (turf), G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile
Warren’s Showtime = 75 (turf), China Doll Stakes
Gamine = 87, maiden special-weight​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Aqueduct (New York):

• Manny Franco won four times and teamed with trainer Michelle Nevin to go a perfect 3-for-3.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Charlie Marquez, who at last check is 16 years old, won three times.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Irad Ortiz, Jr. added three wins to his North America lead in 2020.

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Race 4: The $1 exacta was a massive $771.80. The $,50 tri returned over $3,400. The $.10 super paid more than $4,500.

Santa Anita (California):

• Umberto Rispoli had a profitable afternoon going 6 3-2-0. He is winning at a 24% clip in his first extended try in America and even better with a 26% percentage on turf.
• Flavien Prat also won three times.
• Race 7: Donna Veloce (Flavien Prat/Simon Callaghan) won the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel for 3-year-old fillies as expected though she overcame a stumble at the break. She is now 4 2-2-0 and is approaching half a million in earnings.

Monday, March 9:

Turf Paradise (Arizona):

• Jockey Scott Stevens, the brother to Hall of Famer rider Gary, rode his 5,000th career winner. He has ridden since he was 15 years old in 1976. Only 35 North American jockeys have reached 5,000 wins.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

This is the third (of four) Kentucky Derby future bet weekends opened a couple or so of days ago. The book closed today. Authentic's odds were sliced in half at 6-to-1 which is the lowest odds outside the field which is at 4-to-1. The fourth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool is set for April 3-5.

The updated list:

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 (with trainer and morning-line odds)
Horse	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
Authentic	Bob Baffert	6-1
Basin	Steve Asmussen	38-1
Chance It	Saffie Joseph Jr.	53-1
Charlatan	Bob Baffert	12-1
Enforceable	Mark Casse	23-1
Ete Indien	Patrick Biancone	16-1
Gouverneur Morris	Todd Pletcher	26-1
Honor A. P.	John Shirreffs	14-1
Independence Hall	Mike Trombetta	27-1
Major Fed	Greg Foley	42-1
Max Player	Linda Rice	71-1
Maxfield	Brendan Walsh	15-1
Modernist	Bill Mott	35-1
Nadal	Bob Baffert	10-1
Royal Act	Peter Eurton	68-1
Silver Prospector	Steve Asmussen	24-1
Sole Volante	Patrick Biancone	20-1
Spa City	Kiaran McLaughlin	104-1
Storm the Court	Peter Eurton	60-1
Thousand Words	Bob Baffert	34-1
Three Technique	Jeremiah Englehart	29-1
Tiz the Law	Barclay Tagg	7-1
Wells Bayou	Brad Cox	62-1
All Other 3-Year-Olds	--	4-1

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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 (with trainer and morning-line odds)
Horse	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
Authentic	Bob Baffert	12-1
Basin	Steve Asmussen	30-1
Chance It	Saffie Joseph Jr.	30-1
Charlatan	Bob Baffert	12-1
Enforceable	Mark Casse	30-1
Ete Indien	Patrick Biancone	10-1
Gouverneur Morris	Todd Pletcher	20-1
Honor A. P.	John Shirreffs	20-1
Independence Hall	Mike Trombetta	20-1
Major Fed	Greg Foley	50-1
Max Player	Linda Rice	30-1
Maxfield	Brendan Walsh	15-1
Modernist	Bill Mott	20-1
Nadal	Bob Baffert	10-1
Royal Act	Peter Eurton	30-1
Silver Prospector	Steve Asmussen	20-1
Sole Volante	Patrick Biancone	12-1
Spa City	Kiaran McLaughlin	50-1
Storm the Court	Peter Eurton	30-1
Thousand Words	Bob Baffert	15-1
Three Technique	Jeremiah Englehart	50-1
Tiz the Law	Barclay Tagg	8-1
Wells Bayou	Brad Cox	30-1
All Other 3-Year-Olds	--	9-2

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[Preds Partisan]

Someone was asking me so I'll ask you, Authentic romped the field, but if Baffert isn't the trainer, what would be his true standing after this weekend?

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Someone was asking me so I'll ask you, Authentic romped the field, but if Baffert isn't the trainer, what would be his true standing after this weekend?

I like this horse and Sole Volante as my top two Ky. Derby picks. Baffert has multiple horses including the green Charlatan. Authentic wasn't high on too many Derby lists as the past week approached. Some prognosticators were unsure of the horse with just two races. He beat his stablemate Thousand Words who was a $1,000,000 purchase. By contrast, Authentic was bought for only $350,000.

Last year, Baffert's horses got much attention but I made the point that I didn't like any of them to win the Derby. I said that as early as February. The highest of his three finished fourth and fifth.

While Authentic is far from a cinch and maybe someone else will develop in the upcoming prep races, I think this horse is deserving of the top billing right now.

Into Mischief horses won two of the Derby prep races today (also Mischievous Alex) and generally have the reputation for going 1 1/8 miles -- less than the 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby -- but all horses have question marks as 3-year-olds. They are still raw. That is where Baffert's skill for these races is important.

Finally, Into Mischief is arguably the top current North American juvenile sure -- up there with American Pharoah, Uncle Mo, Tapit and few others.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I don't follow baseball much these days but King Guillermo is owned by an ex-pro baseball player Victor Martinez and the horse is named after the owner's father. The horse wasn't previously nominated for the Kentucky Derby and as such the owner has to put up $6,000. That is a done deal.



Raw emotions from the rider, too, who is number two in the Tampa Bay standings. He knew what he had to do. Went right to the lead from the outside. The track was speed favoring much of Saturday.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Kentucky Derby preps (2):

ARKANSAS:

Oaklawn's card will be announced on Wednesday but the races below will be among those run. The Rebel is a Kentucky Derby prep with a 50-20-10-5 point system awarded to the top four finishers. Bob Baffert has a powerful record in this race and I believe he will ship Nadal in the Rebel.​

3/14/2020	Essex Handicap	4-Year-Olds & Up	1 1/16-Miles	$350,000
3/14/2020	Azeri (Gr. 2)	4-Year-Olds & Up, Fillies & Mares	1 1/16-Miles	$350,000
3/14/2020	Rebel (Gr. 2)	3-Year-Olds	1 1/16-Miles	$1,000,000

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KENTUCKY:

Turfway will have a rare afternoon post on Saturday though the card is yet to be finalized. The Jeff Ruby Steaks (steakhouse sponsor) is a Ky. Derby prep with a 20-8-4-2 point system awarded the top four finishers. This race is not run on dirt, rather synthetic.​

March 14	Mayers Electric Animal Kingdom Stakes	Age 3yo	Distance 6.5F	$75,000
March 14	Twin Spires Kentucky Cup Classic	Age 4up	Distance 1 1/8 miles	$150,000
March 14	Maxim Crane Works Bourbonette Oaks	Age 3yo fillies	Distance 1 mile	$150,000
March 14	Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)	Age 3yo	Distance 1 1/8 miles	$250,000
March 14	Rushaway Stakes	Age 3yo	Distance 1 1/16 miles	$100,000
March 14	Latonia Stakes	Age 4up f/m	Distance 1 mile	$100,000

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The indictments issued today by the feds is obviously significant. The people charged are in serious trouble. Jason Servis will forever be known as a fraud -- or worse -- if this works against him. Jorge Navarro has had a shoddy reputation for a while and the video of his mocking such reputation from a couple of years ago will be etched into his persona. This is troubling for the sport and the vultures will prey. Once again the actions of the damned overpower the many splendors of the good. Other trainers like Mark Casse, Graham Motion and Tim Glyshaw, the latter perhaps who had the strongest words I saw, have gone public with criticisms of their cohorts. While Kiaran McLaughlin and Gary Contessa, two trainers with seemingly sturdy reputations, quit their passion within the past week over finances, wages, insurance compensation, etc., one wonders if they also got tired of the alleged shenanigans of competitors now made public. A major step backward today but hopefully a lesson in the right direction eventually.

I would expect immediate scratches of Navarro and Servis trained horses drawn for Wednesday at Gulfstream.

Unrelated, Jose Ortiz is expected to return to riding later this week as his wrist injury healed quicker than expected.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Announced by the Wests (owners): Bob Baffert gets Maximum Security.

 

[Preds Partisan]

So I'm skipping the big news since everyone should know where I stand on cheating and horse well-being.

Moving on, Breeders' Cup tix at Keeneland went on sale yesterday and they sold out of every non high roller package I was interested in almost immediately. Looks like TV for me.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Good for Ralph Nicks to be on this list. He seems to be a capable horseman, not a huge name but solid abilities.



Also, Rockingham Ranch, who had horses with Jason Servis, announced they would give Brad Cox horses; however, later in the day, Cox said he refused. Seems as if his plate is full.

Ron Lombardi, who owns six horses at Belmont currently trained by Servis, will transfer that half-dozen to Kelly Breen.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

So I'm skipping the big news since everyone should know where I stand on cheating and horse well-being.

Moving on, Breeders' Cup tix at Keeneland went on sale yesterday and they sold out of every non high roller package I was interested in almost immediately. Looks like TV for me.

How often do you visit Keeneland?

 

[Preds Partisan]

Before I got old and decrepit, up to ten times per meet, then weekends only, and now once per meet if I'm lucky. Used to go sales occasionally as well as an observer. Had an attorney friend with a box for several years, tailgated, did the backstretch breakfast package they used to have, had D. Wayne circle an exacta on my program, pretty much the full experience.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

• Rebel Stakes and Jeff Ruby Steaks: Two Kentucky Derby preps were drawn today.
• War Emblem (Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert), who wired the field in the 2002 Kentucky Derby at 20-to-1, passed away at Old Friends Farm in Kentucky at where many horses are cared in their final years. He was 21. War Emblem was 13 7-0-0 and earned $3.4 million, He either won or was off the board as was the case when he attempted to win the Triple Crown but finished 8th in the Belmont Stakes. The 2002 Derby was the year of the $1300 exacta, $18,000 tri and $91k $1 super.

​

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Irad Ortiz, Jr. added four wins to his North American lead of 2020. He has 85 wins which is 20+ more than all other riders. Included in today's win was career #2,500.
• Edgar Prado continues his attempt to pass Angel Cordero into 8th place all-time in North America jockey wins. He has 7,054 which is three less than the Hall-of-Famer Cordero.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The draw for the Rebel Stakes was held today. Bob Baffert's Nadal draws the rail. Here is a summary:
2020 Rebel Stakes Cheat Sheet



REBEL STAKES

What: Grade 2. A Kentucky Derby prep race. The top four finishers will receive, respectively, 50-20-10-5 points.
Where: Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas
When: Saturday, March 14, 2020, Race 10
Time: 5:23 pm Central Time (6:23 Eastern Time)
Who: 3-year-olds
Distance: 1 1/16 mile
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $1,000,000
TV: TVG
History: Inaugurated in 1961. Among the Kentucky Derby winners who won this race are American Pharoah,and Smarty Jones. Bob Baffert has trained a rec-rd six winners in this race.
Kentucky Derby prep schedule: Kentucky Derby Prep Races

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Nadal (KY)	Joel Rosario	117	Bob Baffert	-
2	Excession (KY)	Tyler Baze	117	Steven M. Asmussen	-
3	Basin (KY)	Javier Castellano	117	Steven M. Asmussen	-
4	Silver Prospector (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	122	Steven M. Asmussen	-
5	No Parole (LA)	Joseph Talamo	122	Thomas M. Amoss	-
6	Three Technique (KY)	Luis Saez	117	Jeremiah C. Englehart	-
7	Coach Bahe (KY)	Santo Sanjur	117	Philip A. Bauer	-
8	American Theorem (KY)	Tiago Josue Pereira	117	George Papaprodromou	-

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​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

JEFF RUBY STEAKS

What: Grade 3. A Kentucky Derby prep race. The top four finishers will receive, respectively, 20-8-4-2 points.
Where: Turfway Park, Florence, KY (Greater Cincinnati, OH)
When: Saturday, March 14, 2020, Race 11
Time: 6:42 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-olds
Distance: 1 1/8 mile
Surface: All-weather track
Purse: $250,000
TV: TVG
History: Inaugurated in 1972. Formerly known as the Sprial Stakes, now sponsored by a top steakhouse located in Cincinnati and other spots in the Midwest. Lil E. Tee and Animal Kingdom won this race and the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby prep schedule: Kentucky Derby Prep Races​

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Dack Janiel's (KY)	Rafael Bejarano	123	Jack Sisterson	-
2	Toma Todo (KY)	Alan Garcia	123	Steven M. Asmussen	-
3	Fancy Liquor (KY)	Florent Geroux	123	Michael J. Maker	-
4	Unthrottled (FL)	Corey J. Lanerie	123	Dallas Stewart	-
5	Myamanoi (KY)	Kendrick Carmouche	123	Danny Gargan	-
6	Halo Again (ON)	Rafael Manuel Hernandez	123	Steven M. Asmussen	-
7	Victory Boulevard (KY)	Gerardo Corrales	123	Michael J. Maker	-
8	Finnick the Fierce (KY)	Sonny Leon	123	Rey Hernandez	-
9	Austrian (NY)	Abel Lezcano	123	Jose Fernandez	-
10	The Stiff (KY)	Geovanni Franco	123	Michael W. McCarthy	-
11	Invader (KY)	Albin Jimenez	123	Wesley A. Ward	-
12	Field Pass (MD)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	123	Michael J. Maker	-

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Another of Bob Baffert's young studs is Charlatan who broke his maiden on Feb. 16 in a field of four at Santa Anita in a convincing debut performance as second choice. He is running similarly to Justify whose second race after a maiden debut win was in an allowance optional claiming. I would expect a victory here could be cause for Santa Anita Derby talk for his third career race.

One consideration is there may be slop or mud in Oaklawn as rains are expected in the area. Nadal is a big horse. He is noticeably bigger than most. Due to his size, he could be impeded on a wet or muddy track.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thursday, March 12, 2020

• Virus: Various tracks across America will hold races but without spectators for the time being. Same being done in Ireland and Dubai from what I saw. New York, Maryland, Florida, California are among the places in North America.
• Keeneland: The all-important April sale has been postponed. The April 2 meet opener will be held without spectators.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Julien Leparoux won with two of three mounts.
• Danny Gargan has a hot barn and won with his lone starter. The 22% trainer lifetime is 37% this year.
• Kenny McPeek won with two of three starters.
• Christophe Clement on turf! He is an outstanding turf trainer and his first-time starter -- one of two in the race -- was overlooked by too many in winning the finale in a mighty battle at 16-to-1.

​

• Tyler Gaffalione, the pride of south Florida, was 4 2-1-1 today two days after "Tyler Gaffalione Day" was held in Broward County. Subpar grammar aside from Broward County, a jockey isn't an "its" but the kid can ride.

​

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Race 6: Maybe the race of the day. Morning Snow (Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert) won by a neck in a thriller. The winner was sent out for the fourth time, second victory.
• Ricardo Santana, Jr.-Steve Asmussen, as potent a duo as exists, won twice with five tries.
• Kelsi Harr rode a winner for her fiancée Robert Cline. She has under 20 lifetime wins. Awesome photo:

Fair Grounds (Louisiana):

• Race 9: The runner up paid $40.40/$22.00. Not bad for someone who didn't win.
• Race 8: Lea's Princess (Adam Beschizza/Joe Sharp) paid $73.60.
• Race 3: Hey Grace (Chester Bonnett/Merlin Marechal) paid $81.00. The trainer has been active since the 1970s but doesn't send out too many horses.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Expected bump on wagering since this is the only thing to bet on?

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Expected bump on wagering since this is the only thing to bet on?

Tough to say. Without spectators at a track like Gulfstream, the handle could be down. It is a vacation destination with plenty of tourists. I am not sure how many people will be betting on mobile devices with online accounts. My initial feeling is betting will be down.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Awful lot of gamblers are going to need to get their fix somewhere.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Awful lot of gamblers are going to need to get their fix somewhere.

Which betting interest? I don't think baseball, this time of year especially, and hockey are active gambling sports. Basketball? Probably more so but college hoops with the tourney is something uniquely popular and I don't know if the betting interests will transfer. Now, if you are in Las Vegas or a state that has legal sports betting with simulcast shown, perhaps there will be an increase in those facilities. But there isn't a magnetic race to publicize. The Rebel? The Oaklawn card? I don't think it will draw as many additional eyes as say the Florida Derby. Plus, with the markets struggling mightily, people may take a breather.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

In the past few minutes, Sam Houston (Texas) is suspending SIMULCAST operations but not live racing. I suppose that is similar to other tracks that have banned patrons. I would imagine if live racing is conducted the simulcast feed is still transmitted. Track employees are allowed at the Stronach tracks.

This is another matter that can affect all-source handles (money bet). Without a signal, people won't bet what they can't see. Again, I imagine due to TVG and internet wagering that signals will be sent.

And as a reminder, Santa Anita canceled Friday's card due to inclement weather in southern Cal.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Add Oaklawn and Turfway to the list. Keeneland announced patrons banned from the opener on April 2.

@Preds Partisan