Value of: Arizona RFA contracts - Rieder, Stone, Murphy

[Stephen Gionta]

What term/AAV are each of them expected to get??

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[rt]

I'd guess between 2-4 yrs for each at some amount greater than 3m but less than 4m on average. Stone is the most proven and should be the one closest to 4m per, while Rieder is the least proven and should be the closest to 3m per.

Let's say 3.1 for Rieder, 3.5 for Murphy, and 3.9 for Stone? Maybe 3-4yrs for the D and 2-3yrs for Rieder?

 

[The Nuge]

I'd guess between 2-4 yrs for each at some amount greater than 3m but less than 4m on average. Stone is the most proven and should be the one closest to 4m per, while Rieder is the least proven and should be the closest to 3m per.

Let's say 3.1 for Rieder, 3.5 for Murphy, and 3.9 for Stone? Maybe 3-4yrs for the D and 2-3yrs for Rieder?

Stone is about to hit UFA, and is coming off a career year. I just don't see why he'd agree to a deal under 4

 

[Homesick]

Stone is about to hit UFA, and is coming off a career year. I just don't see why he'd agree to a deal under 4

I doubt an arb would give him less than 4 as well.

 

[BruinDust]

Stone had better numbers than Seth Jones last season. Their 3 year numbers are pretty comparable. Seth probably has a higher upside.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if an arbitrator gave Stone an AAV of 4.75-5.0.

Murphy seems primed for a bridge deal, probably just south of 3.0 per over 2 years.

Reider I have no idea.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Stone will be coming off of a significant knee injury suffered towards the end of last year at the age of 26. Stone is at 87 points in 279 NHL games, with his most significant season being last year's 36 point campaign. A lot of those points were coming from the PP, which was pretty average for the Coyotes last year (17.7% success rate).

Just b/c he had better numbers than Seth Jones doesn't mean that he has to get paid like Seth Jones. Jones was also 19 when he made the NHL roster and saw 70+ games of action. Stone was 23 before he saw 70+ games of action.

I think the only way he sniffs $4 M per is if it is a long-term deal. The injury really makes a long-term deal difficult. I envision going to arbitration and settling on a 2 year, $6.0-6.5 M deal in total. If the injury did not occur, 5 years at $21 M total would seem about right.

Murphy will probably be in the $2.2-$3.0 M range on a bridge deal. $3.2-4.0 M if trying to sign long term.

Rieder is a difficult one to figure, but I would put him squarely in the Murphy range as well.

Don't believe that any one of these guys deserves $4 M on a 1 or 2 year deal. But if the deal is long term, I could see a little over $4 M AAV, but not much more than another $250 k per year above $4 M.

 

[Curufinwe]

For comparison, last summer the Flyers gave MDZ a 2 year deal at $3.875m just before his arbitration case.

He had 32 points in 64 games in 14-15.

 

[rt]

Stone is about to hit UFA, and is coming off a career year. I just don't see why he'd agree to a deal under 4

Over the last three seasons he's averaged around 25pts/yr and 20mins/gp - he had a strong statistical uptick of about 10pts and 3min/gp last year, he also suffered a devastating knee injury to close out the season.

 

[BUX7PHX]

For comparison, last summer the Flyers gave MDZ a 2 year deal at $3.875m just before his arbitration case.

He had 32 points in 64 games in 14-15.

It is funny b/c MDZ was my best comp for Stone's value, even though they are different players.

MDZ has played 160 more NHL games than Stone and has nearly double the points. MDZ has had three years of basically hitting 0.5 PPG (09-10, 11-12, and 14-15 season). Stone had that last year. His only year of doing so. By that logic, Stone would have to come in under what MDZ agreed to. Let's say that number is $3.5 M per year.

The kicker is how much that knee injury affects Stone next year. The Coyotes would be stupid to throw a 5 year deal out there for a player coming off major injury. If he never performs at a level that he once did, then that is $3.5-4.5 M AAV for the next 5 years that Coyote management would have to chalk up as a loss.

In arbitration cases, does injury to the player come into play? If an arbiter gives Stone between $4.5-5.0 M, then the arbiter would have to be drunk.

Arizona probably qualified Stone at $2.2-2.8 M or something equivalent to a 2nd round pick. Other teams can't offer sheet that b/c of his injury. Stone is probably looking to maximize the value of his one or two year deal b/c a team won't sign him long term as a result of the injury. Goes to arbitration. Stone gives his background, and Chayka simply says, "Everything presented is true, but he is coming off of major surgery." No way that an arbiter decides north of $3.75 M AAV. Arizona signs him to a 2 year deal. If no ill effects from injury, extension talks start next offseason. If there are potential issues from injury, Coyotes can trade him or expose him in expansion draft.