Management Are you confident in the rebuild? Draft analysis and discussion

[Xspyrit]

Since the only hope and way we have to build a successful hockey team might be through the draft, how will recent drafting compare to the previous era?

Under Bryan Murray as Ottawa GM (not coach), the team made the playoffs 5 times and won 1 playoffs round. The 2016-17's run was Dorion first season as GM, even though everybody knows it was Murray's team. Overall, the Sens were in the middle of the standings during the regular season, so modest results.

Murray was able to sign players like Sergei Gonchar, Clarke MacArthur and Alexei Kovalev, but also acquired Craig Anderson, Marc Methot, Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, etc by trade

Here below is an analysis of the 8 drafts Murray was in charge (not counting 2007 as he became GM 1 week before the draft) and approximatively where these players usually land in re-drafts. Just noting the guys that are seen as first rounders worthy

Note that we used two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick (and 2 prospects) to acquire Kyle Turris (22 y/o, former 3rd OA pick) and Bobby Ryan (26 y/o, former 2nd OA pick)

2008 : Erik Karlsson ~ 3rd OA (vs 15th)
2010 : Mark Stone ~ 3rd OA (vs 178th)
2015 : Thomas Chabot ~ 6th OA (vs 18th)
2011 : Mika Zibanejad ~ 7th OA (vs 6th)
2009 : Mike Hoffman ~ 10th OA (vs 130th)
2014 : Bobby Ryan ~ 15th OA (vs 2nd) in 2005
2011 : Jean-Gabriel Pageau ~ 19th OA (vs 96th)
2010 : Kyle Turris ~ 20th OA (vs 3rd) in 2007
2009 : Robin Lehner ~ 20th OA (vs 46th)
2009 : Jakob Silfverberg ~ 22th OA (vs 39th)
2008 : Zack Smith ~ 25th OA (vs 79th)
2011 : Ryan Dzingel ~ 29th OA (vs 204th)
2012 : Cody Ceci ~ 29th OA (vs 15th)
2015 : Colin White ~ 30th OA (vs 21st)
2008 : Mark Borowiecki ~ 30th OA (vs 139th)

I am not 100% sure of what I am looking for with this thread but the questions would be :

1) Will our 2016-2021 drafting (6 drafts, 4 were during the rebuild) be anywhere near as successful as the harvest above? Note that only 2009 (with a 9th OA pick) and 2011 (with a 6th OA pick) were retool years, we didn't go into a scorched earth rebuild as we have been doing recently. So I am taking in consideration draft position vs end result here

2) Considering that we traded most of the players in the list above during their prime for picks and prospects, how long before we should expect to see some team results? How many years until we start to see a "the rebuild failed" label? I am not saying this is happening and certainly hope it doesn't but just curious about people expectations

3) In the last regime, the GM brought up guys like Gonchar, MacArthur, Anderson, Methot, Turris, Ryan, etc but we still didn't have that much success despite what seems to be great drafting. Will we really be able to have better team results this time with ONLY drafting? Or maybe the firesale will make the difference (well Norris and Stutzle alone certainly help, as well as getting several "lottery picks" like Tkachuk and Sanderson)?

Click to read more...

 

[bashbros32]

the NHL posted a redraft of the 2016 draft, they had:

Filip Gustavsson ~ 24 (vs 55) and
Logan Brown ~ 32+ (vs 11th)

also I know this stat isn't the be all end all of player evaluation, but point per game paces have:

Josh Norris ~ 7 (vs 19)
Drake Batherson ~ 8 (vs 121)

and I think Brady maintains his 4th slot in a consensus redraft of 18 currently. With Makar, Svech and Dahlin ahead of him.

Edit: Hughes not Makar. I always get those 2's draft years confused... my point still stands though.

 

[Xspyrit]

Just changed the title, hopefully to get the discussion going

the NHL posted a redraft of the 2016 draft, they had:

Filip Gustavsson ~ 24 (vs 55) and
Logan Brown ~ 32+ (vs 11th)

also I know this stat isn't the be all end all of player evaluation, but point per game paces have:

Josh Norris ~ 7 (vs 19)
Drake Batherson ~ 8 (vs 121)

and I think Brady maintains his 4th slot in a consensus redraft of 18 currently. With Makar, Svech and Dahlin ahead of him.

Edit: Hughes not Makar. I always get those 2's draft years confused... my point still stands though.

Gustavsson and Norris weren't Sens picks though but I'll put them in the same way I did for Ryan and Turris. I'll build the draft harvest the same way I did for 2008-2015. Logan Brown I'm afraid will be irrelevant. We didn't even get a piece back for him. The first guy on this list is Dahlen lol.

2016 : Jonathan Dahlen ~ ??? OA (vs 42nd)
2017 : Alex Formenton ~ ??? OA (vs 47th)
2017 : Drake Batherson ~ ??? OA (vs 121st)
2018 : Brady Tkachuk ~ ??? OA (vs 4th)
2018 : Jacob Bernard-Docker ~ ??? OA (vs 26th)
2018 : Angus Crookshank ~ ??? OA (vs 126th)
2019 : Lassi Thomson ~ ??? OA (vs 19th)
2019 : Shane Pinto ~ ??? OA (vs 32th)
2020 : Mads Sogaard ~ ??? OA (vs 37th)
2020 : Tim Stutzle ~ ??? OA (vs 3rd)
2020 : Jake Sanderson ~ ??? OA (vs 5th)
2020 : Ridly Greig ~ ??? OA (vs 28th)
2020 : Roby Jarventie ~ ??? OA (vs 33rd)
2020 : Tyler Kleven ~ ??? OA (vs 44th)
2020 : Egor Sokolov ~ ??? OA (vs 61st)
2021 : Tyler Boucher ~ ??? OA (vs 10th)

Some of these picks were acquired due to the firesale (most known is Stutzle). I'll eventually do something to clarify this

 

[bicboi64]

We haven't had the best lotto luck compared to some other teams and we have a very stubborn coach who isn't exactly letting all the best talent play. I don't have the most confidence in the rebuild considering how Dorion and Smith doesn't exactly learn from their mistakes. Last year it was plugs like Gudbranson, this year its Del Zotto.

 

[Hale The Villain]

We should have been trying to make the playoffs this year and added a good player or two this summer, but we pretty much subtracted from the roster in the off-season.

After smartly dumping Dadonov after Vegas, for some inexplicable reason, agreed to trade for him, his 5M salary should have been allocated towards a difference maker that could help the team win games. Instead Dorion spent his 5M salary on MDZ, Sanford and Gambrell.

No one should be surprised when we finish bottom 10 in the league for the 5th straight year. GM is an idiot and the owner doesn't care about winning.

 

[swiftwin]

Yes. Dorion is a good GM. He specifically said at the end of last season that he felt like this season was not the time to start trading futures for immediate veteran help (beyond depth players like MDZ, Sanford, Gambrell).

One thing Dorion has proven is that he doesn't care about the fickle emotional fans. He will look at things analytically and be patient to do the rebuild the right way. No shortcuts.

It's quite clear that we're on the right path.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Sure, but a fifth straight bottom-ten finish is not good. The overpromising and underdelivering will hurt the franchise.

It wasn’t even 5 years before everyone agreed the Oilers rebuild was a failure and they developed a losing culture.

 

[Liver King]

Confident in the drafting, not in acquiring the supporting cast

This really year one of the second phase of the rebuild though

Lets see what happens

 

[Big Muddy]

What year did Murray go from GM to being a coach? Murray started the year as the GM but then had to become the coach (coach was fired or something like that). What year was that? Wonder if someone remembers when that is as I memory seems to failing me at the moment.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Sure, but a fifth straight bottom-ten finish is not good. The overpromising and underdelivering will hurt the franchise.

It wasn’t even 5 years before everyone agreed the Oilers rebuild was a failure and they developed a losing culture.

I don't think Dorion has overpromised anything. The majority of pieces are in place or developing. We simply need to keep building on what we have.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Patience, and ceasing to add personal expectations on the team that go beyond the stated organizational expectations for the season, would go a long way to assuage some of the HFSens fan misery.

Much of it is self inflicted and pointless.

 

[DaveMatthew]

This is what we have as locks, or as close to locks as you can say, that we have control over for the next 3+ years, and where they objectively should slot in:

Stützle - XXX - Batherson
Tkachuk - Norris - XXX
Formenton - Pinto - XXX
XXX - XXX -XXX

Chabot - XXX
Sanderson - XXX
XXX - XXX

There's still a lot of work to do.

Can we re-sign Zub?
Are Paul and Brown going to be here when we're competitive, considering the dollars they'll likely command?
Can we get rid of Murray, White and Zaitsev?
How are we going to get another scoring winger?
How are we going to get another top 4 defensemen? (Or two, if Zub moves on)
How are we going to get a 1A or 1B centre to complement Norris?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yes, I was and am confident in the rebuild.

The only issue is, I don't know if Dorion the one to push us out of it. I have been enormous Dorion supporter for years; it's time for results and he has next 9 months to dramatically improve/adjust things.

 

[PlayersLtd]

What year did Murray go from GM to being a coach? Murray started the year as the GM but then had to become the coach (coach was fired or something like that). What year was that? Wonder if someone remembers when that is as I memory seems to failing me at the moment.

07-08. Fired paddock midway through, finished 7th, swept by Sid in his first playoff win.

 

[ottawah]

This is what we have as locks, or as close to locks as you can say, that we have control over for the next 3+ years, and where they objectively should slot in:

Stützle - XXX - Batherson
Tkachuk - Norris - XXX
Formenton - Pinto - XXX
XXX - XXX -XXX

Chabot - XXX
Sanderson - XXX
XXX - XXX

Agreed, and the real missing piece is still the center position. Its hard to win a cup without a real top end #1 centerman. And those that do tend to have a lights out goalie, which we are still undecided on. We may still rue the day we drafted a #2 LHD and left a potential #1 RHD on the table. I think if we had a top 4 of Chabot/Drysdale and Brannstrom/Zub we would be in better shape. But unfortunately we have not likely been in a position to grab that elite #1 center .....

 

[Xspyrit]

We should have been trying to make the playoffs this year and added a good player or two this summer, but we pretty much subtracted from the roster in the off-season.

After smartly dumping Dadonov after Vegas, for some inexplicable reason, agreed to trade for him, his 5M salary should have been allocated towards a difference maker that could help the team win games. Instead Dorion spent his 5M salary on MDZ, Sanford and Gambrell.

I legitimately thought we were going to do that. I mean... FYOUS has begun

Lot of teams have pricey veterans that they would like to "get rid of". You can even get assetsif you don't send salary back.

Making the playoffs or not wouldn't have mattered. But we needed the players to truly believe they could make them ALL SEASON and start learning to play with that pressure. It's not over, it's pretty early in the season but we're not trending in that direction and I can't see how it's even possible with that kind of defense.

What year did Murray go from GM to being a coach? Murray started the year as the GM but then had to become the coach (coach was fired or something like that). What year was that? Wonder if someone remembers when that is as I memory seems to failing me at the moment.

2007-08

Bryan Murray NHL & WHA Hockey Coaching Record | Hockey-Reference.com

He was coaching in 2005-06 and 2006-07 (probably our 2 best seasons in history) and then became GM until his health didn't allow it

This is what we have as locks, or as close to locks as you can say, that we have control over for the next 3+ years, and where they objectively should slot in:

Stützle - XXX - Batherson
Tkachuk - Norris - XXX
Formenton - Pinto - XXX
XXX - XXX -XXX

Chabot - XXX
Sanderson - XXX
XXX - XXX

There's still a lot of work to do.

Can we re-sign Zub?
Are Paul and Brown going to be here when we're competitive, considering the dollars they'll likely command?
Can we get rid of Murray, White and Zaitsev?
How are we going to get another scoring winger?
How are we going to get another top 4 defensemen? (Or two, if Zub moves on)
How are we going to get a 1A or 1B centre to complement Norris?

Very good summary of the questions we have to ask ourselves.

 

[DanyHeatley]

CANT BUILD A WINNING CULTURE WITHOUT A SEASONED VETERAN GUIDANCE WHO KNOWS WHAT ITS LIKE TO WIN

 

[BoardsofCanada]

I still believe what we saw at the end of last season was the real deal; a scrappy and tenacious team, willing to go to war with anyone in the league.

This year has not gotten off to as great a start as we would like but it can be attributed to:

1) Colin White and Shane Pinto being out. We'd be better at faceoffs with those two and we'd probably have more offense (especially with Pinto).
2) Brady Tkachuk has not been good so far this year. This was to be expected of course and he will undoubtedly heat up. But this is a factor as well.
3) They are a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. They are going up against a lot of hungry, veteran laden teams that feel it's their time.

All this to say I absolutely believe in the pieces we currently have, and that includes DJ Smith 100%. I believe this is a playoff team in the very near future. We just need to be patient. Even if we finish bottom ten again this year, is that such a bad thing to get another solid pick for for the future?

Win or lose, I like watching this young Sens team. Obviously I much prefer the wins but I can see the potential for the future.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Agreed, and the real missing piece is still the center position. Its hard to win a cup without a real top end #1 centerman. And those that do tend to have a lights out goalie, which we are still undecided on. We may still rue the day we drafted a #2 LHD and left a potential #1 RHD on the table. I think if we had a top 4 of Chabot/Drysdale and Brannstrom/Zub we would be in better shape. But unfortunately we have not likely been in a position to grab that elite #1 center .....

Can you guys see Pinto jumping into that 1a/1b C slots with Norris?

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Can you guys see Pinto jumping into that 1a/1b C slots with Norris?

Easily

 

[PlayOn]

Yes, our core looks good, and keeps getting better. That’s the hardest part.

I was ok with doing very little last summer, and I’m a firm believer that the summer of 2022 will go a long way in defining the success overall. Realistically I think a few things need to happen:

1) Re-sign Zub
2) Trade Zaitsev
3) Buyout White
4) Open up talks with Connor Brown, trade him is he wants too much
5) Acquire a top 6 RW
6) Acquire a 3C

I’m comfortable with Norris and Pinto at C. Time will tell if we need an upgrade to win, but to compete I think we will be fine. I think ideally we see JBD, Thomson and Sokolov in the NHL at some point this season and hope that 2/3 can make the jump by next year.

I think we need a RD for Sanderson but chances are we’re gonna have to wait on one of prospects. It’s tough to make trades for those guys, although if we can then obviously it’s a big win.

Seems fairly doable to me overall, far from an impossible task so let’s see what happens!

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Yes but I'm worried things are going to stall if the D doesn't improve.

A lot.

 

[Agent Zub]

4 years of finishing in the basement and only 1 blue chip forward prospect to show for it.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'd like to know what you mean by still? ... I think the question is exclusive .. I mean did you see what Dorion filled in our roster with last year? and the top young players were a year younger.. Now this year the garbage doesn't smell quite so bad.. but they are still items left at the end of the day at the neighborhood yard sale.

Still?

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Yes but I'm worried things are going to stall if the D doesn't improve.

A lot.

Well it all depends on the progress of guys like Thompson, JBD and of course Sanderson. It's too bad the org doesn't believe in Brannstrom anymore - that's why I didn't include him in the list. I wouldn't hold my breath on them bringing in a top-4 guy who's asking 4-6M/year from free agency.