Are the Penguins better off without Letang at market value?

[molon labe]

So, are we better off in 2022-2023 with the offense we're establishing if it means losing Letang? Or are we better off taking (maybe) a hit of Rust / Rakell in order to pay Letang the over inflated D market price? Letang is quite a bit better than a lot of defense that have been paid 10 mil plus recently....so we might be daydreaming to believe that he's taking 9-9.5 (which even then, are we prepared for?).

* This thread assumes we have a Geno next year at a significant discount. At 9.5/10 (I know you can argue that's a discount for what he's brought to us) - this becomes a different argument...but by all accounts Geno is coming in cheaper than maybe he should.

** This thread also assumes we're paying retail for Letang and all that comes with having him.

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[molon labe]

My vote is to dump what you have to (trim the fat) to keep the 4.

I've always hated paying for mediocrity. Either you bring a unique element to the team - or you're part of a revolving door. Zucker and any one of our D-Men other than Letang (maybe matheson?) are paid ...well average. That's not how you win when you need to pay stars. If you're a roster full of average/above average...you do what you gotta do. But when you have a star or 3, you have to find guys who can play above contract. For whatever reason we've shied away from that over JR's last several years and loaded up with guys who can only ever hope to play AT contract.

Edit: But it's a close choice to me. Because I believe paying Letang 10 mil would be a huge mistake. I think a lot of his points would be made up by a guy like Matheson or replacement getting the time he spends with Sid / Geno. It's better to keep Letang - but anything over 9 mil or so becomes dicey.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

We're not replacing what Letang (ideally) brings through FA or a trade. If he walks, this team can start the big sell. That said, I don't think the Letang we've seen the past couple months is worth the kind of contract commitment it'll take to keep him, not on a team that's right at the very end of the era's Cup window.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't. I would let him walk, but I think he and Geno both re-sign for 3-4 years. Those guys are gonna be a trainwreck after a year or two of their new deals, wherever they sign.

 

[Peat]

Slight uncertainty over what market value looks like compared to Nurse's/Jones'/Werenski's deals given he's better than all of them and older than them aside, I think we're damned if we do and damned if we don't if Letang's shooting for that sort of money.

 

[jmelm]

We don't have the depth/prospects to withstand losing a #1 Dman. And we can't just "do it by committee" either because a lot of the guys have either not yet taken that step (i.e. Pettersson) or just don't have the ability to provide the offense Letang does.

People like to shit on Letang for the odd mistakes he makes, but let's see what people have to say about Friedman or Marino or Ruhwedel if any of those guys had to play 25 minutes/game.

Letang is more important to this team than Malkin, quite honestly, though we don't have the depth or high end prospects to withstand losing quality players at any position.

 

[SomeDude]

It all depends on who would replace him. This D without Letang and just some random guy inserted in the lineup would be terrible. If you can land Klingberg, he would help out the PP (honestly would probably be an improvement), but I think there still would be a sizeable hole. There's nobody else out there in UFA that moves the needle, so you'd pretty much have to look for a trade. We don't have the assets (or desire to spend said assets) to pull off a major move. Just pay the man, dump Zucker, and ride off into the sunset with the big 3.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

It will come down to the reality of the cap, and where else we need to improve for win-now mode...
Will the Jarry/DeSmith combo continue or will we need to spend more money there?
Kap can bring us some draft pics.
Zucker, I think he's with us another year. Can we sell off Pettersson for cap space instead?

I really like our top 6, for the most part, and don't see a quick fast improvement for the short term. Restocking the bottom six is probably the most we'll do next year.

 

[Darren McCord]

You dont find top end talent easy.

You dump middle players like Petts, Erod, Heinen, ZAR, Simon to sign Geno, Letang and Rust.

Then you hope a prospect comes up big unexpected for cheap. Thats how you win in a cap world. Not team wins without a major contribution from a guy making less than 1mil

 

[Peat]

I dunno about not being able to do it by committee. Thinking about, if you break down what Letang does, it's...

PP1 - you can get top PP QBs who maybe aren't 1Ds but will take care of your PP. There's not a ton, but they're out there

PK2 - Ton of second unit PKers out there.

19 minutes a night of 5v5 - theoretically easy. You get a 17 minute a night dman, give Marino an extra 30 seconds, and bump the second pairing up by about a minute or two.

However... quality matters innit. Letang takes a mix of the hardest minutes and the primest attacking minutes. The PP guy should do well out of the prime minutes, but the hard minutes? You're gonna need a better guy than Chad Ruhwedel.

So... you can probably cover Letang leaving by getting Josh Manson and John Klingberg. You might even be better. You've also probably spent 12-13m and been indecently lucky in FA. I guess if you can make Pettersson disappear, you have that money, but you simply can't count on that.

But paying Letang a "regret me" contract isn't hugely more attractive. Gets more so if he's willing to take a short term on it, but even then, the more fair looking contracts we have on this team the harder it goes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean isn't the rumor that Letang wants something in the $7 million range over 5 years?

I would sooner sign Klingberg for $7 million a year than sign Letang for $10 million a year, but I don't see that as an option in the poll.

 

[ColePens]

I'll just say this... the decision IS NOT easy. I am on record for saying I want Letang/G/Sid through the end of the era. So i'll stick to that and cover my eyes/ears. So here is my final take:

Sid/G: I don't care what the price is - until they retire I want them a Penguin.

Letang: If his pricetag is far too high, and I mean egregiously high, then okay fair... split ways.

Rust: Go get paid man. You f***ing deserve it. Take the highest bidder in a city you like and live your dream. I am cheering for Rust, the human, to get PAID.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

People are too emotionally attached to professional athletes. Parasocial relationships are weird, man.

 

[jmelm]

I'll just say this... the decision IS NOT easy. I am on record for saying I want Letang/G/Sid through the end of the era. So i'll stick to that and cover my eyes/ears. So here is my final take:

Sid/G: I don't care what the price is - until they retire I want them a Penguin.

Letang: If his pricetag is far too high, and I mean egregiously high, then okay fair... split ways.

Rust: Go get paid man. You f***ing deserve it. Take the highest bidder in a city you like and live your dream. I am cheering for Rust, the human, to get PAID.

We can afford to give both the money and term to either and both of Letang and Rust as any team in the league.

As I’ve said before, no one is paying Rust 7.5 or more on a 7 year deal (or even shorter term). I could see him getting 6.5 - 7 max. We can afford that, and if we want to go eight years, we can bring the AAV down closer to 6.5 or perhaps even slightly less (6.25?)

Re. Letang: if his initial negotiating ask is 5 x 7.X million, then it stands to reason we could either get him to accept that AAV on a shorter term deal, or a lower AAV on a 5 year deal (maybe down to 7.0 or even slight under).

We can afford, given our ownership, to have both of these deals as heavily signing bonus-laden and front loaded as possible, which will also help bring the AAV down.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Is market value for Letang really 10 million?

The people we saw sign at 9+ were all still in there prime and peak years as defencemen.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Is market value for Letang really 10 million?

The people we saw sign at 9+ were all still in there prime and peak years as defencemen.

I think it's probably right around $9 million. He's not at his peak and he's only going to decline as the contract rolls on, but he's still on the short list of the league's best top pairing defensemen. Probably top-10 pretty comfortably.

 

[Jacob]

I don’t know.

I kinda think a couple 4 million RDs might make us better than spending 8 on Letang, who is still very good and probably still worth that, but might not be for long and will be tough to hide or move if he deteriorates. At least with Malkin you can move him to wing or put him with linemates that support his weaknesses.

 

[jmelm]

Is market value for Letang really 10 million?

The people we saw sign at 9+ were all still in there prime and peak years as defencemen.

More realistically, those players who signed those deals last year were guys whose best years were still ahead of him.

Letang has been elite this year and he may be able to maintain that for another 1-2 years, but then he’s going to start to (slowly IMO) decline.

So sure: north of $8M if it’s a 2 year deal with any team, but AAV will come down with each additional year. That’s why I think we should go 5 years if it will bring the AAV down substantially.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

People are too emotionally attached to professional athletes. Parasocial relationships are weird, man.

Are you talking about fans or the Front Office being too attached?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Are you talking about fans or the Front Office being too attached?

Fans. At least with the FO there's some sort of connection to job security through jersey/ticket sales. Can't wrap my head around people giving a shit about these guys retiring as Penguins or recoiling at the notion of seeing them in other jerseys. I got over that when I was like 15 and Jagr got traded.

 

[MilesNewton]

What do you think the chance would be that he will sign in Montreal and be with his agent the GM Kent Hughes?

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Tang drives me nuts but we can't just replace him. Voted 3 like everyone else.

 

[Ogrezilla]

We don't have anything resembling a replacement for Letang, and replacing him with a free agent is just asking to pay a worse player more than he's worth. I'll take the risk that Letang may fall off over the near-certainty that whoever we replace him with is just plain worse at hockey. You win with home-grown or traded-for top end talent and cheap depth. Trying to fill key positions with market value free agents is not the way to go.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

What do you think the chance would be that he will sign in Montreal and be with his agent the GM Kent Hughes?

Probably a pretty safe assumption to say he ends up in Montreal if he isn't re-signed, but I'd say he re-signs in Pittsburgh. Think a lot of it comes down to how the Penguins fare in the playoffs.

 

[The Old Master]

(i.e. Pettersson) or just don't have the ability to provide the offense Letang does.

People like to shit on Letang for the odd mistakes he makes, but let's see what people have to say about Friedman or Marino or Ruhwedel if any of those guys had to play 25 minutes/game.

yes we would come up short on the offense side. but as it gets harder for him to make up for his brain freezes a lot of that will cancel out the good that he dose (think matty). I would like to keep him but it will depend on the cost. and I'm not as high on him as some here.

 

[Ogrezilla]

yes we would come up short on the offense side. but as it gets harder for him to make up for his brain freezes a lot of that will cancel out the good that he dose (think matty). I would like to keep him but it will depend on the cost. and I'm not as high on him as some here.

we will come up short on the defensive side replacing Letang with any of our right D as well. He's just a straight up better hockey player than anyone we have internal to replace him. Sure, they might not be as silly looking brain farts, they'll just generally get outplayed compared to him the other 99% of the time.