Are expectations too high for rookie NHL players?

[FractionTwo]

We always expect rookies to come out hot out of the gate, but is it good if they start off slowly and then naturally progress into being better? The term "bust" gets used too often for any player that slightly doesn't reach expectations, so I want to discuss how people feel about how some first rounders the past 5-7 years have been playing, and if it's right to deem them a bust or not

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[GeeoffBrown]

I do think people expect way too much from young players.

But 5-7 years is definitely enough time to judge IMO. Like, Sam Bennett 4th overall 2014 is kind of a bust for a top 5 pick.

 

[robsenz]

Yes, but the league has really transitioned into a young mans game, so it kind of makes sense slightly, but still completely unreasonable for rookies.

 

[Mr Burns]

I think it's because of the Crosby/Ovechkin effect. They entered in the league in a dominant fashion during their rookie year and now people expect every 1st overall pick to do the same. Since, only McDavid achieved to do the same, it's just unfortunate he was injured during his rookie year.

 

[zar]

We always expect rookies to come out hot out of the gate, but is it good if they start off slowly and then naturally progress into being better? The term "bust" gets used too often for any player that slightly doesn't reach expectations, so I want to discuss how people feel about how some first rounders the past 5-7 years have been playing, and if it's right to deem them a bust or not

Yes, I agree.

1st round pick - I think forwards should be allowed around 2-3 years before judgement starts to be passed and dmen around 4-5 years
Out of 1st round - add a year.

... but we are talking about the flawed human race and therefore no one will actually be realistic.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes, but the league has really transitioned into a young mans game, so it kind of makes sense slightly, but still completely unreasonable for rookies.

Have to be reasonable.

Hughes, very physically unready to play in the NHL last season compared to Kakko. Kakko and Dach while both more physically mature, were still 18 and coming into a men's league.

People need to have realistic expectations.

Is Laf struggling? A little, but really, with a late Birthday and the Q not running, he should be with the Rangers. most important is that each kid if they jump to the NHL have the mental makeup that they can learn from a tough season and get better.

As a Canucks fan, both Lind and Gadjovich, their 2017 2nd round picks were late birthdays, thus they were eligible to play in the A in 18-19 season. Both struggled getting into games and producing. They picked it up in year 2 and have both had a very strong start to year 3. The other option for both guys was to return to JR as an over-ager, but to me, same as with Zadina, better to move up a level and battle through than go back to junior and dominate with 50 goals and 100 points. Battling in the A and learning and improving shows me more than kicking butt as an over-ager.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

No not really, if you want the league defining superstar label, you need to impress your first year.

McDavid, Crosby, Ovi have been top NHL players since the first day they stepped on the ice and that's why they're who they are.

So when someone like Hughes/Laf has a poor rookie year, thats fine, not every 18/19 year old is ready but that also comes with lowered expectations for their ceilings. Makes you think they'll simply be very good, not the year in year out Hart contender that some really high picks become.

 

[FractionTwo]

No not really, if you want the league defining superstar label, you need to impress your first year.

McDavid, Crosby, Ovi have been top NHL players since the first day they stepped on the ice and that's why they're who they are.

So when someone like Hughes/Laf has a poor rookie year, thats fine, not every 18/19 year old is ready but that also comes with lowered expectations for their ceilings. Makes you think they'll simply be very good, not the year in year out Hart contender that some really high picks become.

hot take, laf isn't that good

 

[542365]

People definitely expect too much from young players, especially since they don’t get the deployment that veterans get. It’s very rare for a rookie to play 16+ minutes a night and on the top PP unit, and that’s where guys produce. Even the most talented players need plenty of ice time with quality players to produce well.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I think it's because of the Crosby/Ovechkin effect. They entered in the league in a dominant fashion during their rookie year and now people expect every 1st overall pick to do the same. Since, only McDavid achieved to do the same, it's just unfortunate he was injured during his rookie year.

Disagree with you. The RNH / Yakapov drafts kind of killed a lot of hype with it. I actually think it came later, as hockey has a short memory. In 2014, Ekblad went and was dubbed a #1 D already for his play. Then there was the INSANE 2015, where McDavid and Eichel were both immediate franchise players. Then Matthews got drafted and scored 40 goals as a rookie. That run had a lot of people saying "prospects now are NHL ready", when in fact it was just luck. The last few drafts haven't really had the top end who were physically mature to dominate in the NHL.

Everyone is expecting someone to step in and be an immediate top line player.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think having high expectations for high picks is alright. I think where people jump the shark is when they draw final conclusions about how good (or bad) those players are going to be for the rest of their careers based on their rookie seasons.

 

[Mr Burns]

Disagree with you. The RNH / Yakapov drafts kind of killed a lot of hype with it. I actually think it came later, as hockey has a short memory. In 2014, Ekblad went and was dubbed a #1 D already for his play. Then there was the INSANE 2015, where McDavid and Eichel were both immediate franchise players. Then Matthews got drafted and scored 40 goals as a rookie. That run had a lot of people saying "prospects now are NHL ready", when in fact it was just luck. The last few drafts haven't really had the top end who were physically mature to dominate in the NHL.

Everyone is expecting someone to step in and be an immediate top line player.

Agreed.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

hot take, laf isn't that good

I think its relative. There were some who were expecting a elite 1st liner this first year, "the best prospect since McDavid", that he will definitely win major trophies one day etc so those people should definitely temper themselves big time.

While its too early to write him off, I think we are starting to get the point where you're looking more at a Hall (minus the questionable Hart win)/RNH esque career more than a Mackinnon/Matthews

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

No not really, if you want the league defining superstar label, you need to impress your first year.

McDavid, Crosby, Ovi have been top NHL players since the first day they stepped on the ice and that's why they're who they are.

So when someone like Hughes/Laf has a poor rookie year, thats fine, not every 18/19 year old is ready but that also comes with lowered expectations for their ceilings. Makes you think they'll simply be very good, not the year in year out Hart contender that some really high picks become.

MacKinnon was 22 before his first PPG season. Kucherov was 23. Draisaitl was 23. Are they not superstars because they couldn't do it earlier?

Everyone develops differently, and not everyone can put up gaudy numbers at 18. Being able to do so is the exception, not the norm.

 

[FractionTwo]

I think its relative. There were some who were expecting a elite 1st liner this first year, "the best prospect since McDavid", that he will definitely win major trophies one day etc so those people should definitely temper themselves big time.

While its too early to write him off, I think we are starting to get the point where you're looking more at a Hall (minus the questionable Hart win)/RNH esque career more than a Mackinnon/Matthews

i'd rather a hall/RNH than those two because they really did rig it for the >rags just to be relevant lol. such a dumb idea to screw over the wings and kings just so a playoff bubble team gets the "best" player in a draft

 

[JT Kreider]

Yes. Matthews scoring 4 goals in his debut threw everyone's expectations for rookies coming straight out of the draft completely out of whack.

Fun fact he was already 19 that night in Ottawa while Hughes did not play a single game as a 19 year old rookie and Kakko played 15 regular season games as a 19 year old rookie

Matthews scoring 40 goals as a rookie was a once in a generation season.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

MacKinnon was 22 before his first PPG season. Kucherov was 23. Draisaitl was 23. Are they not superstars because they couldn't do it earlier?

Everyone develops differently, and not everyone can put up gaudy numbers at 18. Being able to do so is the exception, not the norm.

Well there are different development curves for sure but I think thats part of the reason they're seen as a tier lower than McDavid/Crosby/Ovi.

But those guys are the exact type you hope you're drafting with a 1st overall. Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Kucherov are all guys who have very realistic aspirations at winning a MVP any given season (over the 5+ year span they're in their primes). I'm beginning to believe Hughes/Laf aren't that level- do you remember how electric Mack was at 18? Nowhere near where he is now but he still stopped the show more frequently than just about anyone

 

[FractionTwo]

Well there are different development curves for sure but I think the part of the reason they're seen as a tier lower than McDavid/Crosby/Ovi as well.

But those guys are the exact type you hope you're drafting with a 1st overall. Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Kucherov are all guys who have very realistic aspirations at winning a MVP any given season (over the 5+ year span they're in their primes). I'm beginning to believe Hughes/Laf aren't that level- do you remember how electric Mack was at 18? Nowhere near where he is now but he still stopped the show more frequently than just about anyone

Mackinnon back when he was younger was insane and I didn't see him as the dynamite player he was until that playoff series against the predators. Kid is just electric and whizzes past everyone

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Mackinnon back when he was younger was insane and I didn't see him as the dynamite player he was until that playoff series against the predators. Kid is just electric and whizzes past everyone

He wasn't a dominant player yet, but he was absolutely electric

that playoff goal against the Wild still gives me chills

 

[Dexter Colt]

Stardom right out of the gate is an exception rather than the rule. Even jumping straight from major junior to NHL is so.

Terms like bust and generational are thrown around way too easily.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Yes. Matthews scoring 4 goals in his debut threw everyone's expectations for rookies coming straight out of the draft completely out of whack.

Fun fact he was already 19 that night in Ottawa while Hughes did not play a single game as a 19 year old rookie and Kakko played 15 regular season games as a 19 year old rookie

Matthews scoring 40 goals as a rookie was a once in a generation season.

IIRC wasn’t Matthews like just a couple days from being in the 2015 draft?

Not that it matters, but that 1-3 of the 15 draft would’ve been insane!

 

[Kublakhan]

I think it's more like scouts and media pump up these kids to make them look way better than they are to start..

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

I think having high expectations for high picks is alright. I think where people jump the shark is when they draw final conclusions about how good (or bad) those players are going to be for the rest of their careers based on their rookie seasons.

This. People were calling Stamkos a bust after his rookie year, even tho 40+ points is enough to get big contracts in today's game.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Well there are different development curves for sure but I think thats part of the reason they're seen as a tier lower than McDavid/Crosby/Ovi.

But those guys are the exact type you hope you're drafting with a 1st overall. Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Kucherov are all guys who have very realistic aspirations at winning a MVP any given season (over the 5+ year span they're in their primes). I'm beginning to believe Hughes/Laf aren't that level- do you remember how electric Mack was at 18? Nowhere near where he is now but he still stopped the show more frequently than just about anyone

Sure, the absolute best of the best can put up great numbers at 18, but that doesn't mean that we should hold every rookie 1st round pick to the McDavid/Ovi/Crosby standard.

I also would agree that Hughes/Laf/Hischier probably aren't going to be the best of the best (probably closer to RNH level, give or take). But, overall, I still think expectations are still too high for most rookies. The old standard of 200 games is still usually when you start to have a good idea of what most players can do at the NHL level.

 

[FractionTwo]

This. People were calling Stamkos a bust after his rookie year, even tho 40+ points is enough to get big contracts in today's game.

wait, people called stamkos a bust?