Friedman: Arbitration offer/asks: Isles and de Haan over 3M apart

[Spazkat]

Do the stats you are referencing take into account the level of competition? I'm not questioning your take, I'm just curious because I often feel that Leddy is matched up with opposing top lines, and I know that can sometimes sway your numbers.

Also, I remember reading that Leddy's numbers improved after he was separated from Hamonic last season, so that is also something to consider.

There is a fair amount of research that points to QoT having more effect on stats than QoC except in extreme usage cases (example: Kesler almost exclusively D zone vs Panarin exclusively O zone deployment)

 

[kasper11]

his average (cap hit) was $1,966,667. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/calvin-de-haan

i think the team has to offer 10% more than the avg of the last contract? which is roughly $2.16?

it isn't unusual for the team to undervalue, and the player to overvalue. it's a common strategy.

wouldn't give him more than $4 per, for 5 years. he is 26 and just had his best year. wasn't very good without Seidenberg. wasn't very good at the WC's. he is not a difference maker. solid defensively (good shot-blocker, isn't big enough to handle big forwards, or mobile enough to handle quick forwards), sub-par offensively.

This is incorrect. The qualifying offer is based on the base salary of the previous season, not the average (and does not icnlude the signing bonus as some people have speculated).

https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator

The qualifying offer for this year was $2.5M.

 

[embracedbias]

Calvin de Hann is not worth 5M. The most I'd pay would be 3.75

I'd go up to 3.82

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Holy moly.

Why are people shocked about this in contract negotiations?

3 million apart likely means meeting in the middle 1.5 apart from either offer.

Same with 2 million. That usually means 1 million from either side at the end of the day.

That middle point is 3.5-ish, and not many people think that's outlandish.

 

[Duck Off]

Keep in mind that's their arbitration offer. I highly doubt during the actual negotiations that the number was that low.

it's honestly amazing that people ignore this. If this wasn't an arbitration case, then this could be an issue. since it is, it's common for the player ask to be too high, and the team ask to be too low. As of now, there's simply nothing to see or worry about here.

 

[ToastrStutzle]

Trade him to the sens. CDH grew up in the shadow of the CTC here in Ottawa. He'd love to return....

He can replace Methot as Karlsson's LHD defensive partner

 

[Riptide]

his average (cap hit) was $1,966,667. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/calvin-de-haan

i think the team has to offer 10% more than the avg of the last contract? which is roughly $2.16?

it isn't unusual for the team to undervalue, and the player to overvalue. it's a common strategy.

wouldn't give him more than $4 per, for 5 years. he is 26 and just had his best year. wasn't very good without Seidenberg. wasn't very good at the WC's. he is not a difference maker. solid defensively (good shot-blocker, isn't big enough to handle big forwards, or mobile enough to handle quick forwards), sub-par offensively.

Just an FYI. Qualifying offers are based off of the players salary, not cap hit. Last year for CDH that would be 2.5m (according to this thread).

 

[THall4]

isles r dumb wanting to give $1.95 mil

Its the art of negotiations.

paying party offers low ...payee offers high ...settlement..usually somewhere in the middle of the two numbers.

In this case, I think he'll sign for about 3-3.5M

 

[deckercky]

How is their arbitration ask that much lower than the qualifying offer? I thought the team could only reduce salary by a maximum 10 or 15% through arbitration. $1.95M is a reduction of over 20% from a $2.5M qualifying offer.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

he wants 5??? per??? lol

This. De Haan should have been serving me my blue cheese burger at Barley Mow last night. Super average, would not pay more than 2.5 to 3.0, and even there would rather use a replacement-level guy.

 

[Fugazy]

That offer is too low for CDH.

 

[kasper11]

How is their arbitration ask that much lower than the qualifying offer? I thought the team could only reduce salary by a maximum 10 or 15% through arbitration. $1.95M is a reduction of over 20% from a $2.5M qualifying offer.

They had to offer a qualifying offer of $2.5M. De Haan turned down the offer, and he initiated arbitration.

Because de Haan initiated the arbitration, there is no lower limit placed on his salary determination by the arbitrator. Had the team initiated arbitration, the lowest possible salary would be 85% of his salary last year.

 

[mouser]

They had to offer a qualifying offer of $2.5M. De Haan turned down the offer, and he initiated arbitration.

Because de Haan initiated the arbitration, there is no lower limit placed on his salary determination by the arbitrator. Had the team initiated arbitration, the lowest possible salary would be 85% of his salary last year.

For clarification: that's only if the team initiated the salary arbitration instead of making a qualifying offer. And it would be 85% of salary + signing and roster bonuses.

If the team had instead elected arbitration after making the qualifying offer then it's a minimum of 100% of salary + signing and roster bonuses from the prior season.

 

[Starat327]

This. De Haan should have been serving me my blue cheese burger at Barley Mow last night. Super average, would not pay more than 2.5 to 3.0, and even there would rather use a replacement-level guy.

Waiters in Canada make 2-3 million? Sign me up.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Look what the kid Pesce just got.
Spotrac showed he had one more year on his entry level at $800,000.

Money is crazy . 6 years / 4.8 per avg for Dehaan

Kulemin and Clutterbuck are making each 5 mill next season . Pay the kid already .
He is actually important for us . Not like these other 2

 

[Eisen]

$5M? Hope this goes to arbitration and Snow goes all Milbury at him.

1.95m? I hope that the arbitrator hangs up laughing until the Islanders offer a fair amount.

 

[rikker]

This is incorrect. The qualifying offer is based on the base salary of the previous season, not the average (and does not icnlude the signing bonus as some people have speculated).

https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator

The qualifying offer for this year was $2.5M.

good to know, thanks.

 

[rikker]

Just an FYI. Qualifying offers are based off of the players salary, not cap hit. Last year for CDH that would be 2.5m (according to this thread).

thank you for clarifying that.

 

[wintersej]

There is a fair amount of research that points to QoT having more effect on stats than QoC except in extreme usage cases (example: Kesler almost exclusively D zone vs Panarin exclusively O zone deployment)

QoC is a garbage input.

 

[Chardo]

Just part of the negotiations. DeHaan will be signed long term. After giving up a boatload to draft him, and then to protect him from expansion, Garth has his much of his own reputation tied to deHaan.

 

[Brainiac]

His base salary last year was $2.5M. That means his qualifying was $2.5M. And the Isles qualified him at that number, he turned it down, and now the Isles are telling the arbitrator that he isn't worth $2.5M?

I know that you ask for the moon...but, when you say that a player is worth less than what you yourself offered, you lose credibility with the arbitrator. How is he going to take anything the Isles say seriously?

100% agreed. You always hear posters defending GMs on lowball offers. Saying "duh, that's how negociation works, start low and move from there and bla bla bla".

But everyone seems to forget that these negociations are not one on one. Arriving at the table with a completely ridiculous amount is not a good tactic. It makes you look foolish in front of the third party who has to make a call based on what he hears from the GM and the player.

 

[Iceman]

Wow, that's not much penny from Islanders.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Its the art of negotiations.

paying party offers low ...payee offers high ...settlement..usually somewhere in the middle of the two numbers.

In this case, I think he'll sign for about 3-3.5M

I think if it's a two year deal or however how many years until free agency then maybe but if it's long term then 4+ if not 5.

 

[BEERnSOUP]

1 year 3.3m.

 

[airbus220]

Just part of the negotiations. DeHaan will be signed long term. After giving up a boatload to draft him, and then to protect him from expansion, Garth has his much of his own reputation tied to deHaan.

Sounds Good. They should be happy CDH didn't want an award.