Another "Southern Belt Is A Failure" Article

[GuelphMadHatter]

Funny thing is that this is exactly what happened. Tampa Bay set up shop in 1992, and their IHL affiliate was the Atlanta Knights. The Knights were enormously popular and had a huge following, then went away to clear the way for the Thrashers.

In fact, let's see here...

Houston had the Aeros, who were hugely popular. Houston nearly got the Oilers. Columbus had the Chill (ECHL), who were affiliated with Chicago (NHL) and Indianapolis (IHL). The Chill only had about 200 sellouts in eight seasons, including 91 straight. Nashville had the ECHL Knights, who were popular. And so on.

This may be a shock, but not everyone in an NHL market that's added a team in the last 20 years is a complete rube that doesn't know what they're watching. The sport isn't the problem and the market isn't the problem.

There are two variables that are overlooked far too often.
1) Options. Given the choice between watching a successful team or an unsuccessful one, people prefer the successful one. If someone is a fan of football and hockey and they can watch a successful football team or a feeble hockey team, what's that going to do to attendance?
2) Mediocrity. Plenty of people will see a good team or an average team, but no one will spend huge amounts of money to watch a team that they know is not only rebuilding or on the way down, but has no hope for a few years. Toronto is the exception that proves the rule on that; frankly, the idea that "Toronto does it, so the fact that (American city) doesn't is proof that it's not a hockey market" is a little bit like saying "I don't care that this player had 700 goals and 1500 points in his career; he didn't hit 895 and 2858, so he's not a Hall of Famer!"

The proof is in the pudding. The Minnesota North Stars had a year averaging less than 8,000 attendance; Chicago post-lockout had games of around 8,000; Pittsburgh in 2003-04 had a year of less than 12,000; and so on. That in is no way a reflection of whether or not that market can support hockey or an NHL team.

Mod: deleted.

You make alot of great points though. How can you blame a fanbase when its clear the ownership didn't give the market a chance. The size of the fanbase definitely is a problem, but that's an abstract concept being blamed. The fanbase they do/did have in Atlanta is clearly very passionate. The size is the problem.

Gary Bettman is really who should be blamed, Gary Bettman and the rubber stamp that is the BoG for ever approving a sale of a franchise to a group who clearly doesn't give two craps about hockey in Atlanta.

 

[BadHammy*]

You make alot of great points though. How can you blame a fanbase when its clear the ownership didn't give the market a chance. The size of the fanbase definitely is a problem, but that's an abstract concept being blamed. The fanbase they do/did have in Atlanta is clearly very passionate. The size is the problem.

Gary Bettman is really who should be blamed, Gary Bettman and the rubber stamp that is the BoG for ever approving a sale of a franchise to a group who clearly doesn't give two craps about hockey in Atlanta.

Ding, ding, you win. The market never really had a chance to succeed, to blame it on it being a southern market is mostly ignorance.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Apparently having played the game doesn't matter. People become fans without ever having played, so who cares whether kids in the south play?

Because that's an enormous talent pool that's being tapped?

Want to play a fun game? It's called "who produces the NHL players and when".

Illinois (home of the Blackhawks) has had 41 NHL players from there. 16 of them began their NHL careers in 2000 or later; 25 total began after 1990.

Pennsylvania (home of the Flyers and Penguins) has had 24. 14 of them began their NHL careers in 2000 or later.

Ohio (home of the Blue Jackets) has had 20. 5 of them are after 2000....but for this year, there are three possible first-round draft picks that are Ohio natives (JT Miller, Connor Murphy, and Tyler Biggs). What's very important there is that none of those three is from the Cleveland or Toledo area, which is where every Ohio-born NHL player is from. The Ohio AAA Blue Jackets, which only formed in 2006, has already put 9 players into NCAA hockey with more on the way. That also doesn't include players going to the OHL.

The USNTDP team in Ann Arbor has seen a huge influx in the last five years of kids from California, Arizona, Texas, and all sorts of areas that are "not traditional". That's going to improve the NHL product greatly down the road as more and more kids get involved in youth hockey.

 

[Jamin]

I am completely lost.

EDIT: I agree with your premise. The problem is that it has little to do with what I am arguing.

If you see such a connection, then forgive me but I don't.

The argument was if you have read every page is people were saying you dont need to play hockey to become a fan of hockey after someone said winter teams would grow faster. Now that the argument has shifted towards teams moving south helps grow the game by people playing it the poster is pointing out how the exact opposite oppinion was held like 2 pages back.

 

[GuelphMadHatter]

Obvious strawman, especially considering Americans are far more infamous for geographic ignorance than Canadians are.

That was basically my original point.

 

[dronald]

Being in a place where playing Hockey outside in the Winter is as easy as playing Basketball outside in the Summer increases the chances of a team doing well in a city. End of story.

 

[Steve Passless*]

Maybe people would stop lumping Columbus in with Atlanta and Phoenix if the hockey team in Columbus wasn't about to become an economic disaster on par with the ones in Atlanta and Phoenix. I don't think map skills come into the equation anywhere.

 

[Killion]

The USNTDP team in Ann Arbor has seen a huge influx in the last five years of kids from California, Arizona, Texas, and all sorts of areas that are "not traditional". That's going to improve the NHL product greatly down the road as more and more kids get involved in youth hockey.

For sure, and Im always pleasantly surprised to see where some of these kids are from. Back in the day, NHL teams sponsored Junior A, B & in some cases amateur clubs & entire leagues when the 'A', 'B' & 'C' player contracts were in use, sort of a form of indentured servitude on the down side; on the up-side, the individual clubs were sponsoring hockeys development in Canada through the Depression, WW2 & into the early 60's. Players rights locked up at an early age, with a gentlemans agreement between the teams in terms of territory. It was archaic & punitive to a large degree, hence the birth of the NHLPA & Minor League Unions, however it did deliver up "Hometown Players" to the Leafs & Habs. For teams like Tampa, Phoenix, Atlanta, Nashville, LA & Anaheim etc in particular, along with the Black Hawks, Devils etc being able to draft players that came up through the local amateur systems (though likely played Major Jr. or NCAA elsewhere) it would be a real boon to their marketing efforts (provided the kids decent), an example & a hero to the next generation.

Take Ryan Kesler for example. He's from Livonia (a suburb of Detroit) and a product of the USNDTP and the Ohio State Buckeyes. He looked up to Mike Modano as a kid, another Livonian. Now dont get me wrong, Vancouvers' damned lucky to have him, but in terms of marketing, a player like that should be in a Blue Jackets or Wings uniform where he can play in front of his hometown crowd 42X's a season, not once in a Blue Moon whenever the Canucks visit. Because of the lottery-like selection process through the draft a kid from Dallas or San Jose could easily wind up in Ottawa or Edmonton. I dont know how, but there should be some sort of a mechanism devised whereby local kids, not all of them of course, but a goodly number are able to be selected by their home town teams. Yes, its crazy in light of the contracts & player movement but its something to ponder.

At least, I do. Ponder junk like that. My mind wanders....

 

[Confucius]

For sure, and Im always pleasantly surprised to see where some of these kids are from. Back in the day, NHL teams sponsored Junior A, B & in some cases amateur clubs & entire leagues when the 'A', 'B' & 'C' player contracts were in use, sort of a form of indentured servitude on the down side; on the up-side, the individual clubs were sponsoring hockeys development in Canada through the Depression, WW2 & into the early 60's. Players rights locked up at an early age, with a gentlemans agreement between the teams in terms of territory. It was archaic & punitive to a large degree, hence the birth of the NHLPA & Minor League Unions, however it did deliver up "Hometown Players" to the Leafs & Habs. For teams like Tampa, Phoenix, Atlanta, Nashville, LA & Anaheim etc in particular, along with the Black Hawks, Devils etc being able to draft players that came up through the local amateur systems (though likely played Major Jr. or NCAA elsewhere) it would be a real boon to their marketing efforts (provided the kids decent), an example & a hero to the next generation.

Take Ryan Kesler for example. He's from Livonia (a suburb of Detroit) and a product of the USNDTP and the Ohio State Buckeyes. He looked up to Mike Modano as a kid, another Livonian. Now dont get me wrong, Vancouvers' damned lucky to have him, but in terms of marketing, a player like that should be in a Blue Jackets or Wings uniform where he can play in front of his hometown crowd 42X's a season, not once in a Blue Moon whenever the Canucks visit. Because of the lottery-like selection process through the draft a kid from Dallas or San Jose could easily wind up in Ottawa or Edmonton. I dont know how, but there should be some sort of a mechanism devised whereby local kids, not all of them of course, but a goodly number are able to be selected by their home town teams. Yes, its crazy in light of the contracts & player movement but its something to ponder.

At least, I do. Ponder junk like that. My mind wanders....

Now that sounds exciting, Toronto keeps, Stamkos, Tavares, Nash, Spezza, Seguin, cammalleri, Weiss, Knuble, Moulson, Skinner, Subban

 

[Killion]

Now that sounds exciting, Toronto keeps, Stamkos, Tavares, Nash, Spezza, Seguin

Exactly. No more of this. Its all part of my Evil Plot.

 

[Steve Passless*]

Yeah, the draft mechanism by which the worst teams have the first crack at the best prospects should be subverted so that the Detroit Red Wings automatically get Ryan Kesler.

 

[Killion]

....subverted so that the Detroit Red Wings automatically get Ryan Kesler.

Of course not. Im simply bemoaning the fact that players rarely get drafted by their home town teams. An almost impossible dream. A "what if".

 

[not a trapdoor]

I'm sure there could be _something_ worked out to allow hometown picks, but there's a catch which would mean it'll never happen.

Leaving aside the whole southern expansion debate, the uneven nature of _where_ in North America the NHL players hail pretty much scotches any chance of it happening.

Toronto (for example) might have 100,000 registered junior players and in any given year there might be 50 natives of Greater Toronto in the draft. Meanwhile there's say 2,000 juniors in the Miami Metro area & 0 in the same draft class. So Toronto would get to cherrypick from 50 players and the Panthers don't have the option.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Southern Hockey is not a failure. NHL Management and the ownership selection process is.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Being in a place where playing Hockey outside in the Winter is as easy as playing Basketball outside in the Summer increases the chances of a team doing well in a city. End of story.

Hence the Raptors doing well. Jays too.

 

[Coldhardmitch]

Being in a place where playing Hockey outside in the Winter is as easy as playing Basketball outside in the Summer increases the chances of a team doing well in a city. End of story.

This is NOT the case. For every American reading this thread: You CANNOT find outdoor rinks all over the place in EVERY Canadian City.

For example, Vancouver doesn't have any, and hockey is obviously pretty popular there.

 

[dronald]

This is NOT the case. For every American reading this thread: You CANNOT find outdoor rinks all over the place in EVERY Canadian City.

For example, Vancouver doesn't have any, and hockey is obviously pretty popular there.

It increases the chances still. Although, I might add that Vancouver has 10x the amount of indoor rinks than Phoenix or Atlanta.

And if the temperature can get below 0 then you can create an outdoor rink or skate on a pond.

 

[Adz]

All that is great and it's nice to have that ambition. However lets look at the reality of the situation. If you've never played before and can barely stand up and keep your balance on skates. A team of 7 year olds will kick your butt. However since you're playing with other adults, unless you are all non skaters, first timers. Anytime you're on the ice the other team is on a power play. Your team is a man short, sorry for being callous, no other way to put it.

Had he started as a kid, your friend would have been in the NHL then.

It would be very similar to being part of a relay swim team, and the most water you've ever been in was in the bathtub. Think of all the problems you face soon as you jump in.

Actually a couple of the people we were playing with had been playing roller hockey and ice hockey long before we got the Predators. Hockey has been in Nashville in one form or another since 1962. We were just trying to have fun! My guys were thrilled that I was trying it for the first time ever and were sad that I couldn't actually play. It was all about being together and sharing the sport we loved to watch. And beer.

They're all competitive and love to win, but sometimes it's just about camaraderie. Besides, my kid was the goalie so they had to let me play.

 

[Fugu]

In the NHL, in contrast, the average team earns about 10 cents of every dollar from national TV. It has to earn the other 90 cents itself, mostly by selling tickets. NHL teams ultimately prosper or fail depending on the level of fan interest in their home market. And throughout the U.S., and especially in the Sunbelt, the level of interest in hockey is low. Really, really low

Surprise no one caught this error, but I do think the larger point stands.

In fact, the successful teams, be they American or Canadian are successful because they don't have just gate receipts upon which to rely. They have very lucrative local media deals, suite sales, and of course higher ticket average prices.

Having said that, the level of interest supports the other things --- more demand equals higher ticket prices, businesses buying STH packages, sponsorships, and a big media contract due to good local ratings.

I see the writer's point, but it's poor journalism. Quite a few errors in the article. It's hard to take someone serious when he infers a 'weak market' like Green Bay needs TV revenue to prosper in the NFL.

Green Bay is the only professional sports team in America that is owned by it's own community. In essence, they are owned by the Fans. They have sold out every single home football game since 1960. That's 41 years straight. There are over 80,000 people on the waiting list for season tickets. That's more than the stadium holds.

Yea, sounds like a weak market. If you took TV revenue away in the NFL, Green Bay is one of the only teams that would survive easily. The Packers are the Canadiens of the NFL.

You can't create an alternate reality though. The Packers cannot compete with the massive media markets and business support that teams like Dallas, Washington DC, and the NYC teams can get. It hasn't been just about attendance in these markets for decades. That is a huge part of the problem--- the paradigm shift from an attendance-based business model to one that grew into something that made that a tertiary consideration. Market size in this sense becomes a far greater issue unless you have serious levels of revenue sharing.

 

[Melrose Munch]

This is NOT the case. For every American reading this thread: You CANNOT find outdoor rinks all over the place in EVERY Canadian City.

For example, Vancouver doesn't have any, and hockey is obviously pretty popular there.

It increases the chances still. Although, I might add that Vancouver has 10x the amount of indoor rinks than Phoenix or Atlanta.

And if the temperature can get below 0 then you can create an outdoor rink or skate on a pond.

Vancouver Area has no high school hockey either.

 

[Kirikanoir]

Yeah, the draft mechanism by which the worst teams have the first crack at the best prospects should be subverted so that the Detroit Red Wings automatically get Ryan Kesler.

Well that okay Vancouver would have gotten
Steve Yzerman

 

[dobiezeke*]

Southern Hockey is not a failure. NHL Management and the ownership selection process is.

Just playing devil's advocate - could it be possible that the ownership groups were the only options available to the BoG at the time of these franchises' inception? Was there a lineup of buyers to place teams in the failing markets? I would point at the debacle in Phoenix to show that there is not a large base of potential owners who are willing to dump money into the NHL in these markets.

Just a thought. Look forward to being refuted if the facts prove my opinion wrong.

 

[PredsV82]

Just playing devil's advocate - could it be possible that the ownership groups were the only options available to the BoG at the time of these franchises' inception? Was there a lineup of buyers to place teams in the failing markets? I would point at the debacle in Phoenix to show that there is not a large base of potential owners who are willing to dump money into the NHL in these markets.

Just a thought. Look forward to being refuted if the facts prove my opinion wrong.

Im thinking it didnt happen like you make it seem, ie that the NHL chose the markets it wanted and then tried to find owners willing to go there.

I think the NHL let it be known they were going to expand, and then owners and cities teamed up and made their pitches to the league, and the expansion sites were chosen.

What I dont know is who, if anybody, got passed up in the process that in retrospect would have been a better choice.


Also interesting is that once the Thrash sale goes through(to whomever) only one of the four expansion teams will still have their original owner(although Leipold traded one for another)

 

[Steve Passless*]

Well that okay Vancouver would have gotten
Steve Yzerman

Yzerman grew up in Ontario. Would've been a Maple Leaf. Anyway, the initial premise is stupid, and there's no sense in further sabotaging the thread to indulge it.

 

[Cirris]

Impact Buffalo? Hardly, it's a U S Market and a traditional one at that, just give it 10 more years.

I facepalm every time I see comments like this.

It equates that because Buffalo is on one side of a river it's not allowed to market to the other side of said river. Which is a stupid argument considering Sabres season ticket holders from the "wrong" side of river number in the thousands.

It's like telling the Kansas city Chiefs "hey don't market to Kansas, it's on the other side of the Missouri river."

I'll just end it it at this. Debating it any further is a waste of time and has been dealt with numerous times on this board. Everyone has an ulterior agenda their pushing anyways. So even valid points would be overlooked anyways.