Another Late Season Surge

[Golden_Jet]

Yup all these late season wins will definitely help us win a Cup.

What a joke

5 and 5 in last 10
14-16 in last 30

Seems close to season average.

 

[stempniaksen]

Maybe it's because I know very little about the draft this year but (assuming no lottery luck) isn't the difference between 5 and 7 somewhat inconsequential?

There seems to be a "big 2" up front and Levshunov seems to have separated a bit at the top defenceman but the group between 4 and 10ish seemed to be more grouped together than years past. It feels like Sens management could quite easily still get "their guy" at 7 despite the fanbases outside hope at a top-five pick.

 

[BondraTime]

Maybe it's because I know very little about the draft this year but (assuming no lottery luck) isn't the difference between 5 and 7 somewhat inconsequential?

There seems to be a "big 2" up front and Levshunov seems to have separated a bit at the top defenceman but the group between 4 and 10ish seemed to be more grouped together than years past. It feels like Sens management could quite easily still get "their guy" at 7 despite the fanbases outside hope at a top-five pick.

Look at it as a %.

Chance of them getting their guy at 5 is 50+%

Chance of them getting their guy at 7 is 10%

Obviously the % changes dramatically if you like a guy rated much higher or lower, and those % are just made up for effect. But the chances they get their guy drop dramatically if they like any of the top guys.

On the board, we will likely be perfectly fine as it’s likely there is a group of 5-8 guys that will be viewed as fine picks at 5 or 7. The Sens scouts are going to have a list where they want a certain player, they may not be fine with how things shake out.

 

[stempniaksen]

Look at it as a %.

Chance of them getting their guy at 5 is 50+%

Chance of them getting their guy at 7 is 10%

Obviously the % changes dramatically if you like a guy rated much higher or lower, and those % are just made up for effect. But the chances they get their guy drop dramatically if they like any of the top guys.

On the board, we will likely be perfectly fine as it’s likely there is a group of 5-8 guys that will be viewed as fine picks at 5 or 7. The Sens scouts are going to have a list where they want a certain player, they may not be fine with how things shake out.

I totally understand the logic and obviously it could bite them. It just feels like this year specifically the "%" of it mattering is much smaller than in a typical year where the top X is more "set".

I know it's admittedly because I'm using publicly available lists while the Sens will have their own, but there isn't much of a consensus this year and as fans we can probably complain less than year with a defined top 5/6.

 

[BondraTime]

I totally understand the logic and obviously it could bite them. It just feels like this year specifically the "%" of it mattering is much smaller than in a typical year where the top X is more "set".

I know it's admittedly because I'm using publicly available lists while the Sens will have their own, but there isn't much of a consensus this year and as fans we can probably complain less than year with a defined top 5/6.

Likely no different than 2020, where it was the exact same on lists and on HF, seen as a wide open field, but for the Sens they’d have been very, very upset if Detroit took Sanderson.

We will be perfectly fine with who we take, no doubt about that. It won’t be a 2021 where we miss out on very good prospects and get a Boucher.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Look at it as a %.

Chance of them getting their guy at 5 is 50+%

Chance of them getting their guy at 7 is 10%

Obviously the % changes dramatically if you like a guy rated much higher or lower, and those % are just made up for effect. But the chances they get their guy drop dramatically if they like any of the top guys.

On the board, we will likely be perfectly fine as it’s likely there is a group of 5-8 guys that will be viewed as fine picks at 5 or 7. The Sens scouts are going to have a list where they want a certain player, they may not be fine with how things shake out.

Totally true. This will 100% impact whether the scouts get "their guy".

However scouts are very far from batting 1.000 so that may, or may not, be a blessing in disguise. Who knows.

I guess the one silver lining is that this is probably a good year to drop from 5 to 7, as the group of prospects in that range all seem to be fairly similar in upside.

I think it's going to be a really interesting draft to watch.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Winning against Boston last night may very well bump our second first round pick up several places if Boston gets knocked out in the first two rounds. So a consolation to losing our chance to “pass” Montreal and Arizona for a better first pick, neither of which would probably have happened anyways.

We needed to lose against Montreal when we played them a couple games back, that would have helped our own first pick.

Edit: now we have to cheer for teams that didn’t win their division and have less regular season points than Boston to make it to the third round (to position our second first round pick as high as possible)

 

[bert]

Winning against Boston last night may very well bump our second first round pick up several places if Boston gets knocked out in the first two rounds. So a consolation to losing our chance to “pass” Montreal and Arizona for a better first pick, neither of which would probably have happened anyways.

We needed to lose against Montreal when we played them a couple games back, that would have helped our own first pick.

This is true I think it actually just moved from 28 to 25. So I guess thats a positive from that win.

Montreal sucks so much couldnt hold a lead if their life depended on it. The two wins against Tampa and Boston did cost the sens 2 spots though.

 

[Micklebot]

[

Totally true. This will 100% impact whether the scouts get "their guy".

However scouts are very far from batting 1.000 so that may, or may not, be a blessing in disguise. Who knows.

I guess the one silver lining is that this is probably a good year to drop from 5 to 7, as the group of prospects in that range all seem to be fairly similar in upside.

I think it's going to be a really interesting draft to watch.

That really depends on who their guy is, if our scouts guy is Iginla or Yakemchuk, we're probably pretty safe at 7, but if we are targeting Dickenson, Demidov or Lindstrom, this probably creates more uncertainty.

 

[Micklebot]

This is true I think it actually just moved from 28 to 25. So I guess thats a positive from that win.

Montreal sucks so much couldnt hold a lead if their life depended on it. The two wins against Tampa and Boston did cost the sens 2 spots though.

And if the conference finals end up with two of Tampa, Toronto Was, and NYI vs two of Col, EDM, Wpg, Nah VGK, or LAK, then the could get pushed down 4 more spots.

So here's to cheeri g on a first or second round exit for Boston

 

[Alf Silfversson]

[

That really depends on who their guy is, if our scouts guy is Iginla or Yakemchuk, we're probably pretty safe at 7, but if we are targeting Dickenson, Demidov or Lindstrom, this probably creates more uncertainty.

If we're targeting Iginla or Yak at 5 then we got our guy at 5... or at 7. My point is that even the best scouts rarely get the absolute best guy left on the board at 5 or 6. So while it increases uncertainty for the scouts at 7 vs. 5, it will likely be pretty random as far as final outcome goes. Particularly with the tier of players in that range this year.

I'd obviously rather have 5 than 7 but it is pretty much even odds on the kind of player we're likely to get.

 

[bicboi64]

So here's to cheeri g on a first or second round exit for Boston

Smh, I can't believe I might unintentionally cheer forTML

 

[StoicSensFan]

And if the conference finals end up with two of Tampa, Toronto Was, and NYI vs two of Col, EDM, Wpg, Nah VGK, or LAK, then the could get pushed down 4 more spots.

So here's to cheeri g on a first or second round exit for Boston

 

[Golden_Jet]

Smh, I can't believe I might unintentionally cheer forTML

Just need to cheer for them to lose in Second round, same pick.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Leafs will lose eventually either way, so I'd be happy to see Boston go out round 1 for our benefit.

 

[bicboi64]

Just need to cheer for them to lose in Second round, same pick.

Thank the hockey gods, can't see myself ever cheering for the leafs.

My nightmare cup finals would be ducks vs leafs.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yup all these late season wins will definitely help us win a Cup.

What a joke

They have won one, lost one to end out the season.

Expecting them to be something they aren’t is more the joke man.

Be happy with 5th to 7th, it’s what we earned.

 

[JD1]

Look at it as a %.

Chance of them getting their guy at 5 is 50+%

Chance of them getting their guy at 7 is 10%

Obviously the % changes dramatically if you like a guy rated much higher or lower, and those % are just made up for effect. But the chances they get their guy drop dramatically if they like any of the top guys.

On the board, we will likely be perfectly fine as it’s likely there is a group of 5-8 guys that will be viewed as fine picks at 5 or 7. The Sens scouts are going to have a list where they want a certain player, they may not be fine with how things shake out.

I understand completely what you're saying but what you're not considering is:

What are the chances that "their guy" is "the guy"?

We'll have happy scouts on draft day if we had 5oa. Big deal really. That only matters if the chosen guy works out. Boucher and Brown are recent high profile top picks that completely busted but both were "our" guy.

Outside of a clear tier distinction, does it matter?

 

[BondraTime]

I understand completely what you're saying but what you're not considering is:

What are the chances that "their guy" is "the guy"?

We'll have happy scouts on draft day if we had 5oa. Big deal really. That only matters if the chosen guy works out. Boucher and Brown are recent high profile top picks that completely busted but both were "our" guy.

Outside of a clear tier distinction, does it matter?

Well they have taken Tkachuk, Stutzle and Sanderson as their guys at the top of the draft, and haven’t had the chance, which is bewildering, to draft at the top other than those two drafts. I trust them with their choice at the top of the drafts, it's everywhere else that I do not have much faith in them.

In 2016 they apparently wanted Sergachev, but he was taken earlier.

2021 there was a clear dropoff point, as you said there was a clear tier distinction they missed on by that late season surge.

I think it matters a large amount in a draft like this one, where it seems like any of 10 guys could go from 2-6, which makes it much less certain and much more random in nature that could throw wrenches into the staffs plans. They will, undoubtedly, have 1 guy in mind at the draft, they will be praying they don't have to settle for another guy.