Speculation: Anaheim and Expansion - Why the Ducks are in great shape

[Jumptheshark]

If Bieksa doesn't waive the Ducks can just buy him out. But I've outlined my sound reasoning as to why he likely waives, what's your counter argument?



Could be a lot worse than trading a player who has a similar yet higher upside NHL replacement in house. Also no one is claiming the Ducks expansion situation is better than those teams, but it's a lot better than the clubs who are losing a good player no matter what - and a lot better than people are making it out to be.

You have not made your case why he waives. He is getting bought out 48 hours after the final. Even without bieska. Ducks still have to expose a good dman. Math is not hard here. Ducks have no choice but to buy out bieska. You theory is he waives but I do not see him doing it to be a nice guy. I am will to get the NHLPA will be putting pressure on players not to waive

 

[GoldiFox]

Would happily move 12th OA for Vatanen. The Canes defense would be pretty well set with Vatanen as a 3rd pairing and PP option. Also gives the Canes more flexibility to potentially move Faulk at some point (if negotiations don't work out).

The Canes also had interest in Fowler before the season started. Wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a D in a deal like this.

 

[gamer1035]

Yeah this all checks out.

However, the leafs do not want vatanen so you will have to dump him elsewhere

 

[tomd]

The problem is that the promise has no enforceable weight. Say Vegas agrees to it...then takes Vatanen anyways. The Ducks have no recourse...even the league would be like "sucks to be you."

The most you can do is include a punitive clause in an unrelated trade with Vegas, like Vegas trades you a 2nd if they take Vatanen instead of Kerdiles...and I'd wager they'd still take Vatanen because he's worth more than Kerdiles and an early 2nd.

Your proposed solution is not a solution at-all.

Deals like that were made all the time during previous expansion drafts. It could certainly be in writing if need be. It is, in effect, a legitimate trade that would be posted with the league.

 

[dracom]

ok...I'll type this very slowly so you can comprehend it.

Kerdiles has the highest upside of any player that might be left exposed by the Ducks. LV has said they are going to draft young forwards so Kerdiles is a good choice for them unless they decide to go with Wagner who has almost no upside.

Now, assume for a minute that LV does want Kerdiles. If the Ducks trade Vatanen for a pick or a young ED exempt forward then they could protect Kerdiles as their 7th forward. In that situation, LV gets NEITHER Vatanen or Kerdiles. To avoid that outcome, LV agrees IN ADVANCE with Anaheim NOT to take Vatanen if the Ducks will expose Kerdiles. Ducks get to keep Vatanen (or trade him later without a gun to their head) and LV gets the young forward they want.

Is that really so hard? Please don't reply again that LV would take Vatanen over Kerdiles.

You just don't get it. Kerdiles upside isn't all that great to begin with. Positional 3rd liner or legit NHL top 4 D. If Vats is exposed, they take him even if they want Kerdiles.

Your logic is so out there it makes no sense, lol.

 

[Sojourn]

You have not made your case why he waives. He is getting bought out 48 hours after the final. Even without bieska. Ducks still have to expose a good dman. Math is not hard here. Ducks have no choice but to buy out bieska. You theory is he waives but I do not see him doing it to be a nice guy. I am will to get the NHLPA will be putting pressure on players not to waive

Bieksa wouldn't be waiving to be a nice guy. He would be waiving to stay with Anaheim, and to help make sure the team is better for it. It's a win-win for him. If he forces them to buy him out, his time in Anaheim is done.

 

[dracom]

You have not made your case why he waives. He is getting bought out 48 hours after the final. Even without bieska. Ducks still have to expose a good dman. Math is not hard here. Ducks have no choice but to buy out bieska. You theory is he waives but I do not see him doing it to be a nice guy. I am will to get the NHLPA will be putting pressure on players not to waive

Why would the NHLPA care? You think they go around pressuing players with NMC or NTC never to waive them? Waiving helps Bieksa continue what he wanted to do when he came here. Play on a SC caliber team, be close to his buddy Kes, raise his family in SoCal and not be forced to move them again (which he would do if he gets bought out and wants to keep playing hockey). Plenty of reasons to waive his NMC for the expansion draft.

Would happily move 12th OA for Vatanen. The Canes defense would be pretty well set with Vatanen as a 3rd pairing and PP option. Also gives the Canes more flexibility to potentially move Faulk at some point (if negotiations don't work out).

The Canes also had interest in Fowler before the season started. Wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a D in a deal like this.

12OA for Vats? I'm down.

Yeah this all checks out.

However, the leafs do not want vatanen so you will have to dump him elsewhere

Just like the Leafs didn't want Andersen?

 

[Crosbysux]

The issue with trading away players to deal with the expansion draft is that people are ignoring that other teams are also dealing with expansion issues. Many teams are struggling with having to expose defensemen. Why would they be able to take on Vatanen, as well?

Because there are a lot of teams that don't have 3 Dmen the caliber of Vatanen and especially young, RH PMD, that have a reasonable cap hit. There are teams that would be willing to let one of their guys go to expansion if it means getting Vatanen, or doing a subsequent trade. Ducks are in a good spot, Vatanen will be in high demand.

 

[Barness01]

I've seen JT miller for Vatanen talked about before and it seems like it'd make a lot of sense for both sides regarding the ED.

 

[tomd]

You just don't get it. Kerdiles upside isn't all that great to begin with. Positional 3rd liner or legit NHL top 4 D. If Vats is exposed, they take him even if they want Kerdiles.

Your logic is so out there it makes no sense, lol.

I give up...you just refuse to understand that this would be a deal made in advance and filed with the league.

Yes, it only works if they want Kerdiles but I think even you would agree that Kerdiles has the highest upside of any player the Ducks are likely to leave exposed (assuming Vatanen is traded).

 

[The Duck Knight]

You have not made your case why he waives. He is getting bought out 48 hours after the final. Even without bieska. Ducks still have to expose a good dman. Math is not hard here. Ducks have no choice but to buy out bieska. You theory is he waives but I do not see him doing it to be a nice guy. I am will to get the NHLPA will be putting pressure on players not to waive

Bieska will waive if he wants to continue playing for Anaheim and not have to move his family. It's that simple.

And once Bieksa is taken care of and we trade Vatanen we protect Fowler/Lindholm/Manson. So no we won't be exposing a good dman.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Why would the NHLPA care? You think they go around pressuing players with NMC or NTC never to waive them? Waiving helps Bieksa continue what he wanted to do when he came here. Play on a SC caliber team, be close to his buddy Kes, raise his family in SoCal and not be forced to move them again (which he would do if he gets bought out and wants to keep playing hockey). Plenty of reasons to waive his NMC for the expansion draft.



12OA for Vats? I'm down.



Just like the Leafs didn't want Andersen?

Why would the NHLPA CARE? Do some history checking on the guy running the show. That is his battle ground fodder.

The last thing he wants to hear is a player waiving his NMC because a team said pretty please with sugar on top.

Bieska is getting bought out Nd with 7.3.1 protection list ducks still stand to lose A good d

 

[Sojourn]

Why would the NHLPA CARE? Do some history checking on the guy running the show. That is his battle ground fodder.

Bieksa is a grown man who can make his own decisions. I don't think he gives a **** what the NHLPA thinks on this matter. He wants to stay in Anaheim.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

You have not made your case why he waives. He is getting bought out 48 hours after the final. Even without bieska. Ducks still have to expose a good dman. Math is not hard here. Ducks have no choice but to buy out bieska. You theory is he waives but I do not see him doing it to be a nice guy. I am will to get the NHLPA will be putting pressure on players not to waive

I did lay out my reasoning in the OP, but I'll spell it out again.

Bieksa demanded the NMC in the first place because he wants to play out his contract in Anaheim for a contending team, and doesn't want to move his family again.

If Bieksa waives the NMC for expansion, it's almost certain he gets to stay in Anaheim because Vegas has no reason to pick him. Murray can even agree to honor the NMC post expansion for the duration of the deal.

If Bieksa doesn't waive his NMC, he's going to be bought out. He's 100% leaving Anaheim and moving his family, has no guarantee of catching on with a contending team or of staying in the West.

One route leaves him little chance of moving, the other guarantees it, which is better for Bieksa? He'll waive

Either way, Bieksa isn't an issue when it comes to the Ducks and expansion. Whether he waives or gets bought out, he isn't going to be protected.

 

[dracom]

I give up...you just refuse to understand that this would be a deal made in advance and filed with the league.

Yes, it only works if they want Kerdiles but I think even you would agree that Kerdiles has the highest upside of any player the Ducks are likely to leave exposed (assuming Vatanen is traded).

Yes, if we traded Vats he would be the one with the highest upside. But that's not what you've been proposing. You keep proposing that the Ducks would leave both Vats and Kerdlies exposed and Vegas would take Kerdlies over Vats is just wrong.

There's just no reason for Vegas to want a prospect with limited upside over a top 4 RHD that MANY teams in the league would want.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Yeah this all checks out.

However, the leafs do not want vatanen so you will have to dump him elsewhere

There is no shortage of teams looking for a top 4 RD. Just off the top of my head NYR/ARI/VAN/CHI/NJ/DET/TB. There is no need for us to "dump him".

 

[Crosbysux]

Would happily move 12th OA for Vatanen. The Canes defense would be pretty well set with Vatanen as a 3rd pairing and PP option. Also gives the Canes more flexibility to potentially move Faulk at some point (if negotiations don't work out).

The Canes also had interest in Fowler before the season started. Wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a D in a deal like this.

I wouldn't do it for the 13 OA. Typically it's a top 6/9 FWD, high end prospect and a 1st for a D like Vatanen. Being a high pick might make it a 2 piece package, but would not do it for the pick alone.

 

[dracom]

Why would the NHLPA CARE? Do some history checking on the guy running the show. That is his battle ground fodder.

The last thing he wants to hear is a player waiving his NMC because a team said pretty please with sugar on top.

Bieska is getting bought out Nd with 7.3.1 protection list ducks still stand to lose A good d

There's a difference between losing a good D and trading a good D for assets.

 

[Starat327]

Why would the NHLPA CARE? Do some history checking on the guy running the show. That is his battle ground fodder.

EVen assuming the NHLPA cares.. why wouldnt Bieksa take care of himself and his family first? The dude doesnt have much of an NHL career left. If he wants to spend it in SoCal and not moving his family again, waiving is his best chance of that.

His options are to

a) waive, likely not be taken, finish his contract in SoCal for all the reasons the OP and subsequent posters have stated.

or

b) refuse to waive, be bought out, and only stay in SoCal if he signs a cheap deal with the kings(?)

I suppose B) is a possibility, but when coupled with the other factors (Kesler, better contention window, not having to commute from wherever he lives now to DTLA), it seems like a no-brainer.

I highly doubt Bieksa will allow the NHLPA to pressure him into waiving and giving up all that he wanted, just to make a stand against the big bad NHL at the twilight of his career.

 

[Kingspiracy]

Bieska will waive if he wants to continue playing for Anaheim and not have to move his family. It's that simple.

And once Bieksa is taken care of and we trade Vatanen we protect Fowler/Lindholm/Manson. So no we won't be exposing a good dman.

If he declines to waive and gets bought out, couldnt he end up with more money in his pocket by signing with another local team?


Edit... also even if he does waive and clears the expansion draft, whats stopping the ducks ****ing him off to some ****** team afterwards? He loses all control of where he ends up.

 

[The Duck Knight]

If he declines to waive and gets bought out, couldnt he end up with more money in his pocket by signing with another local team?

Yes, but anything over minimum money would be thievery on Bieksa's part. In reality the Kings would make their team worse by signing him, which would work for me.

 

[LoovTrain]

If Bieksa doesn't waive and gets bought out, then the Ducks need to acquire a Dman to satisfy the 40/70 rule. Stoner and Holzer didn't qualify.

 

[tomd]

Yes, if we traded Vats he would be the one with the highest upside. But that's not what you've been proposing. You keep proposing that the Ducks would leave both Vats and Kerdlies exposed and Vegas would take Kerdlies over Vats is just wrong.

There's just no reason for Vegas to want a prospect with limited upside over a top 4 RHD that MANY teams in the league would want.

oh my God this is incredible.

Look, I have no problem if you say that LV would take another player over Kerdiles if Vatanen was traded. That is a fair discussion. But when I specifically say that one way to keep Vatanen would be to have a deal in place for LV to select Kerdiles if he is left exposed and not take Vatanen, why do you keep saying that LV would take Vatanen? At that point they couldn't if a deal had been made. Please tell me you at least understand that much.

 

[Sojourn]

If he declines to waive and gets bought out, couldnt he end up with more money in his pocket by signing with another local team?

That would be an interesting(see: poor) decision on the King's part, but sure, it's possible. It's also possible that it isn't just the geography that matters here. Bieksa may actually want to stay with Anaheim, where he can play with one of his best friends, on a more competitive team.

He also may not. I won't pretend to understand his motivations. If the Kings want to sign him, I don't think Anaheim fans are going to shed a tear.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If he declines to waive and gets bought out, couldnt he end up with more money in his pocket by signing with another local team?

If Bieksa wants to take that gamble, his break even point would be $1.4M