An Offseason in Review

[Busboy]

Well, for the sake of a balanced argument, our payroll has actually increased significantly in the last 15 years. You have to remember, our payroll in 1999-2000 was about ~$22mil. "15 years" is too wide a net to cast if you want to be accurate. The Sens really only started spending ~$50mil+ in the 2007/08 season.

The payroll has only been stagnant over roughly the past 7 or so years. Problem is, that's the period where other teams have been able to add almost $20mil/yr in contracts.

If we're using the 2007/2008 season to compare I think it's important to ask if we were losing money at that point. According to Melnyk I believe we were.

So you could make the argument that our payroll should have increased over the past 7 years, but first we need to consider that maybe our payroll was too high to begin with.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Fun Fact:
a) The Detroit Red Wings spent $77.8mil in salaries in the 2003/04 season, while the New York Rangers spent $76.5mil.

b) The Nashville Predators, on the other hand, spent $21.9mil in the same season.

c) The Salary Cap ceiling, 11 years later, is $69mil.

Can you imagine if there was no cap now? Some teams would probably be over the 100 million mark, while others would probably still be hovering in the 20s.

Insane.

 

[BankStreetParade]

You guys baffle me.

Four years ago, everyone is saying that we need to strip the roster and rebuild with high draft picks and an influx of youth.

Now that we're at that point, where the team has tons of young talent in the pipelines and on the team playing on cheap contracts, people start complaining that this team doesn't spend any money. That this team has plateaued in spending. That Eugene Melnyk is Bill Wirtz. Where the **** do you guys get this **** from?

If you have young players, that means you have cheap contracts. It's a fact. A lot of our kids are entering the "show me" phase of their careers, especially Zibanejad, Chiasson, Stone and Hoffman. With Zibanejad and Chiasson, you could expect to see their salaries double, triple, quadruple or more.

Then you have Methot and Ryan to sign as UFAs. Even on the most conservative estimate of $7 million/year for Ryan and $4 million/year for Methot coupled with the conservative estimates of $2 million/year for each of Zibanejad and Chiasson, $1.25 million/year for Hoffman and $1 million/year for Stone, you're talking about a payroll of $65+ million next year.

Then you consider the fact that it wasn't that long ago that there used to be many Senators games that weren't televised or were on obscure sports channels that you had to pay a premium for or that you used to get Sens PPV games or that some games just had no coverage at all. And here we are today, every game is on TV and we actually have a network dedicating premium, high level talent to covering this team.

You consider the fact that it wasn't that long ago that our scoreboard was a giant piece of **** that wasn't even worth it's own weight in scrap metal.

You consider the fact that the concession stands have started moving toward actually caring about what fans want.

You consider the fact that the team helped undertake the expansion of the highway leading in and out of the arena. As well as taking steps to improve the flow of traffic out of the parking lots after games.

You consider the sum of ALL of those things and how can the conclusion not be that this team is closer to its fans than ever? We might not be a powerhouse spending team, but that's not too shabby for a team in a city that seems to adamantly refuse to help the team sell out every single game.

You guys need to wake up. If you think Melnyk is anything like Bill Wirtz, I'm embarrassed for you.

 

[Busboy]

You guys baffle me.

Four years ago, everyone is saying that we need to strip the roster and rebuild with high draft picks and an influx of youth.

Now that we're at that point, where the team has tons of young talent in the pipelines and on the team playing on cheap contracts, people start complaining that this team doesn't spend any money. That this team has plateaued in spending. That Eugene Melnyk is Bill Wirtz. Where the **** do you guys get this **** from?

If you have young players, that means you have cheap contracts. It's a fact. A lot of our kids are entering the "show me" phase of their careers, especially Zibanejad, Chiasson, Stone and Hoffman. With Zibanejad and Chiasson, you could expect to see their salaries double, triple, quadruple or more.

Then you have Methot and Ryan to sign as UFAs. Even on the most conservative estimate of $7 million/year for Ryan and $4 million/year for Methot coupled with the conservative estimates of $2 million/year for each of Zibanejad and Chiasson, $1.25 million/year for Hoffman and $1 million/year for Stone, you're talking about a payroll of $65+ million next year.

Then you consider the fact that it wasn't that long ago that there used to be many Senators games that weren't televised or were on obscure sports channels that you had to pay a premium for or that you used to get Sens PPV games or that some games just had no coverage at all. And here we are today, every game is on TV and we actually have a network dedicating premium, high level talent to covering this team.

You consider the fact that it wasn't that long ago that our scoreboard was a giant piece of **** that wasn't even worth it's own weight in scrap metal.

You consider the fact that the concession stands have started moving toward actually caring about what fans want.

You consider the fact that the team helped undertake the expansion of the highway leading in and out of the arena. As well as taking steps to improve the flow of traffic out of the parking lots after games.

You consider the sum of ALL of those things and how can the conclusion not be that this team is closer to its fans than ever? We might not be a powerhouse spending team, but that's not too shabby for a team in a city that seems to adamantly refuse to help the team sell out every single game.

You guys need to wake up. If you think Melnyk is anything like Bill Wirtz, I'm embarrassed for you.

Great post. There's a lot of Eugene hate around here but he has done and continues to do a lot to improve our experiences as fans.

He has financial constraints, which would be true of anyone who may own this team. People act like the sky is falling because we can't spend as much as other teams and they direct their anger towards Melnyk.

Much of that anger is misplaced, and would be better directed at the NHL for allowing the salary cap to slowly creep away from its intended purpose of allowing smaller market teams like Ottawa to be competitive with spending.

 

[BonkTastic]

If we're using the 2007/2008 season to compare I think it's important to ask if we were losing money at that point. According to Melnyk I believe we were.

So you could make the argument that our payroll should have increased over the past 7 years, but first we need to consider that maybe our payroll was too high to begin with.

Absolutely, fair questions all.

Problem is: the team has never had that discussion openly & honestly with the fans. Until then, it's all speculation.

 

[BonkTastic]

You guys need to wake up. If you think Melnyk is anything like Bill Wirtz, I'm embarrassed for you.

Outside of maybe one guy (Trent, who was discussing hockey-ops - and I quote: "I watched Dollar Bill Wirtz cut the payroll down to nothing, trade away my favorite players for cheap garbage in return,"), who said that?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Good:
Finally making the move to trade Spezza, return wasn't what we all thought, but it's a step in the right direction (ie, to be a team like Boston).

Bad:
Though probably not completely the Senators fault, I expected them to have signed Ryan by now.

 

[Micklebot]

Outside of maybe one guy (Trent, who was discussing hockey-ops - and I quote: "I watched Dollar Bill Wirtz cut the payroll down to nothing, trade away my favorite players for cheap garbage in return,"), who said that?

Not from this thread, but there are poeple who have uttered such thoughts...

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=84943463&postcount=190

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=84176275&postcount=784

and my personal fav

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=86036787&postcount=16

 

[BankStreetParade]

Outside of maybe one guy (Trent, who was discussing hockey-ops - and I quote: "I watched Dollar Bill Wirtz cut the payroll down to nothing, trade away my favorite players for cheap garbage in return,"), who said that?

Note from this thread, but there are poeple who have uttered such thoughts...

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=84943463&postcount=190

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=84176275&postcount=784

and my personal fav

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=86036787&postcount=16

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL...ahahahahahah. That's amazing. OMG.

 

[Sensinitis]

You're such a bot, Micklebot.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Great post. There's a lot of Eugene hate around here but he has done and continues to do a lot to improve our experiences as fans.

He has financial constraints, which would be true of anyone who may own this team. People act like the sky is falling because we can't spend as much as other teams and they direct their anger towards Melnyk.

Much of that anger is misplaced, and would be better directed at the NHL for allowing the salary cap to slowly creep away from its intended purpose of allowing smaller market teams like Ottawa to be competitive with spending.[/QUOTE]

This is somewhat forgotten in all of this....what were the points of the last two lockouts? Honestly at the rate we are seeing it climb we are headed for a league with 4-5 teams.

 

[thinkwild]

The salary cap is climbing because teams like the Sens are making more money. Linkage, remember?

If Melnyk hadnt had his little casino temper tantrum and threatened sens fans that their team was destined to be the developer of talent for the rest of the league like the old rough riders, but instead Murray had made the hockey case that they were going to develop a winner the way it must be done, spending when it has earned it by being successful, not spending to try and make it successful, every decision made so far could easily be rationalized as smartly continuing down the draft and develop path that Sens fans have long bragged about that we are capable of as a market of doing. And not rushing to try and buy a Cup like the early Bolts, or when Leonsis came to washington and won the ufa season only to sell all his ufas, or as the recent owner in buffalo and edmonton with their big splash to buy a winner, only to fail and realize it doesnt work and go back to rebuilding cheaply.

Its a subtle point, but if the team isnt good enough yet, spending a lot of money hasnt often changed that. Spending a lot of money is only useful once you are good enough. If you are one of those large market teams that can throw away money even for a last place team, it probably even slows down you ability to become good.

It was time to let alfie retire, many have been calling for Spezza to be traded for a long time, Ryan and Methot are difficult contracts and decisions and should be taking a long time. The timing is right to be taking the path we are on and to continue looking for opportunities like the ryan trade and lazaar draft. The rebuild is over, the hard work and development now begins.

 

[aragorn]

I must be the only guy who thought we got more than Spezza was worth in that deal with Dallas. Chiasson is looking real good so far in preseason which doesn't mean anything until the regular season but it looks promising. Paul was invited to Team Canada & seems to be a highly regarded junior player with NHL potential.

Guptil has good size & skills, we'll be watching Bingo this yr to see if he can break out for us & a 2nd rd pick in a deep draft also looks promising for Ottawa's scouting staff. Spezza sucked defensively, his minus was terrible, his giveaways were terrible & his point production was on the decline not to mention his injury problems seemed to be increasing. IMO he was a depreciating asset that we traded for prospect/players that are trending upwards, I think we got the better deal. I was more disappointed we lost Hemsky. I think the team is much better without Spezza.

 

[trentmccleary]

Great post. There's a lot of Eugene hate around here but he has done and continues to do a lot to improve our experiences as fans.

He has financial constraints, which would be true of anyone who may own this team. People act like the sky is falling because we can't spend as much as other teams and they direct their anger towards Melnyk.

Much of that anger is misplaced, and would be better directed at the NHL for allowing the salary cap to slowly creep away from its intended purpose of allowing smaller market teams like Ottawa to be competitive with spending.

Melnyk's ownership of the team has changed drastically within the past few years. He went from from competitive owner to penny-pinching miser at the drop off a hat. What explains this?

Here are two stories, which do you think is more likely?

1) He really hasn't become a penny-pinching miser who no longer cares whether the team wins as long as he makes a profit. He truly will spend money once some genius figures out how to build a contender at a $15-20M disadvantage. The fact that Ottawa appears to earn more ticket revenue than a dozen other teams who spend more on payroll doesn't mean that our owner is a liar when he cries poor, it means that a dozen other billionaires don't know how to run a business.
or
2) All of Melnyk's recent misfortune have come home to roost and his personal financial troubles are what caused the team to stop trying to be competitive. I believe that since 2008:
- he has divorced.
- been kicked off the board of Biovail.
- been investigated by the Securities Commission.
- lost $900M on the stock market within a time span of a few months.

While he still has more money than any of us will ever have, these massive catastrophes have put him in 'survival mode' and he is pocketing as much profit from the hockey team as possible to offset his recent financial losses in other areas.

The salary cap is climbing because teams like the Sens are making more money. Linkage, remember?

Exactly and with the team's ticket revenue somewhere around 14th, plus other benefits like owning their own arena and operating in a city where hockey is easily marketable... this team should be somewhere between 10th-15th in the league. The Senators shouldn't be crying poor.

I must be the only guy who thought we got more than Spezza was worth in that deal with Dallas. Chiasson is looking real good so far in preseason which doesn't mean anything until the regular season but it looks promising. Paul was invited to Team Canada & seems to be a highly regarded junior player with NHL potential.

Guptil has good size & skills, we'll be watching Bingo this yr to see if he can break out for us & a 2nd rd pick in a deep draft also looks promising for Ottawa's scouting staff. Spezza sucked defensively, his minus was terrible, his giveaways were terrible & his point production was on the decline not to mention his injury problems seemed to be increasing. IMO he was a depreciating asset that we traded for prospect/players that are trending upwards, I think we got the better deal. I was more disappointed we lost Hemsky. I think the team is much better without Spezza.

You're not the only one, but your post looks like all of the others.
..."If Spezza looks like he has during the worst of his injuries for the rest of his career and all of the nobody prospects reach their fullest potential; we win this deal."

There is so much spin and unlikely prediction that it's hard for me to take them seriously.

I predict that Spezza will outproduce (NHL points) all four assets combined from now until the last one of them hangs up his skates.

 

[Micklebot]

Melnyk's ownership of the team has changed drastically within the past few years. He went from from competitive owner to penny-pinching miser at the drop off a hat. What explains this?

Here are two stories, which do you think is more likely?

1) He really hasn't become a penny-pinching miser who no longer cares whether the team wins as long as he makes a profit. He truly will spend money once some genius figures out how to build a contender at a $15-20M disadvantage. The fact that Ottawa appears to earn more ticket revenue than a dozen other teams who spend more on payroll doesn't mean that our owner is a liar when he cries poor, it means that a dozen other billionaires don't know how to run a business.
or
2) All of Melnyk's recent misfortune have come home to roost and his personal financial troubles are what caused the team to stop trying to be competitive. I believe that since 2008:
- he has divorced.
- been kicked off the board of Biovail.
- been investigated by the Securities Commission.
- lost $900M on the stock market within a time span of a few months.

While he still has more money than any of us will ever have, these massive catastrophes have put him in 'survival mode' and he is pocketing as much profit from the hockey team as possible to offset his recent financial losses in other areas.



Exactly and with the team's ticket revenue somewhere around 14th, plus other benefits like owning their own arena and operating in a city where hockey is easily marketable... this team should be somewhere between 10th-15th in the league. The Senators shouldn't be crying poor.



You're not the only one, but your post looks like all of the others.
..."If Spezza looks like he has during the worst of his injuries for the rest of his career and all of the nobody prospects reach their fullest potential; we win this deal."

There is so much spin and unlikely prediction that it's hard for me to take them seriously.

I predict that Spezza will outproduce (NHL points) all four assets combined from now until the last one of them hangs up his skates.

Not sure about this; When factoring in injuries, I could see the combo of Legwand and Chiasson outproducing Spezza (the other two won't be playing for a while). Spezza is good fo 60 to 80 pts depending on health, it's not far fetched at all to expect 30 and 40 from teh Sens duo and for Spezza to miss some time.

All things said, I'm sorry to hear you're down on the team (well ownership really) and hopefully they prove you wrong. We all fans here and it sucks to see finances impact what could be, but it's not like that has ever really not been the case here save a couple years.

 

[BonkTastic]

and my personal fav

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=86036787&postcount=16

Heh, missed this thread for a few days. Nice catch on me.

I absolutely stand by it, though - within the context of not spending on payroll, not surrounding our young players with supplementary talent, making trades with the payroll in mind rather than making pure hockey trades ... I wasn't referring to the Bill Wirtzian "extra-curriculars" (tv blackouts, etc...). I made reference to the rosters - that was my point. I was making a roster commentary. Nothing has changed.

For the record, I still stand by that: I still think we make trades with the budget in mind, and leave assets on the table as a result. I still think we're not surrounding our young players with the right kind of structure & system - we largely depend on our young players to take "the next step" on their own, we don't exactly have a rich history of mentoring young players into the league over the last ~4 years, and I think that's entirely on the budget.

And on top of all that, when I posted that (June 4th), we had heard nothing from the front office/ ownership that was of any confidence at all. Murray was setting us up for a bad return on a Spezza trade (which came true), the team was losing it's 2nd captain in 2 years because they both did not want to be here. I still have almost no confidence in the ownership of this team at any level. Nothing has changed between June and now. We have signed a good player in Legwand because most of the rest of the league views him as flawed (though I'm excited to have him here nonetheless, he'll be good for us), and continue to make questionable moves because we're not spending money - locking up Borowiecki for 4 years (3 year extension for a 25 year old with a cup of coffee in the NHL and a very AHL-like stats line on top of this year's one-way contract) and crossing our fingers that it works out enough that he becomes a "deal" later on.

I still think we're closer to Wirtz than not. If others don't feel the same way, I won't question their opinion. I'm just very, very wary of this team's future. I'm very much a "show me, don't tell me" kind of person. We're not spending now, but we're paying lip service to spending in the future? Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[trentmccleary]

Not sure about this; When factoring in injuries, I could see the combo of Legwand and Chiasson outproducing Spezza (the other two won't be playing for a while). Spezza is good fo 60 to 80 pts depending on health, it's not far fetched at all to expect 30 and 40 from teh Sens duo and for Spezza to miss some time.

All things said, I'm sorry to hear you're down on the team (well ownership really) and hopefully they prove you wrong. We all fans here and it sucks to see finances impact what could be, but it's not like that has ever really not been the case here save a couple years.

Legwand wasn't one of the 4 pieces received in the deal.

 

[Sensinitis]

He's an extension of the deal. He's what the team did with the extra cap space received from the deal. It isn't silly to include him as being part of the deal, especially considering his position.

 

[Icelevel]

better redo the review

 

[Micklebot]

Legwand wasn't one of the 4 pieces received in the deal.

Fair point, though the ~3 mil in salary savings used to sign him was. Guptil, Paul and the 2nd are long term assets. All three should be expected to start contributing (if they even do) for 2-3 year min and longer for the pick, so it's a safe bet the way you've framed it, but much like how when Bos traded Thornton, the assets returned were never intended to directly replace the player traded.

There were lots of valid reasons to move on from Spezza, and while I would have prefered to get more value back, that ship sailed when he got injured at the start of the lockout year. Best time to move him would have been that offseasin in hindsight, but it would have been a tough sell.

For what it's worth, we now have 54 mil committed to 17 players for 2015/16, with Zibanejad, Chiasson, Methot and Stone as notable players needing contracts. If w assume Methot gets ~4, Chiasson and Zibanejad gets 2, and Stone gets 1.5 (all very optimistic imo) that puts us at ~65mil. If we pay a little more, it might be enough to push us just out of the bottom 3rd.

 

[Alfie#11]

For what it's worth, we now have 54 mil committed to 17 players for 2015/16, with Zibanejad, Chiasson, Methot and Stone as notable players needing contracts. If w assume Methot gets ~4, Chiasson and Zibanejad gets 2, and Stone gets 1.5 (all very optimistic imo) that puts us at ~65mil. If we pay a little more, it might be enough to push us just out of the bottom 3rd.

$55 million in salary according to CapGeek.

I think your rough numbers sound decent and if they get the salaries to $65 million then that would be fair. We don't have to be a top spender but we do have to be close enough so that we aren't massive disadvantage because of lack of spending.

I think being competitive in spending level is more important than absolute ranking. If we are 20th out of 30 but only say $3 million behind the top spender, I would not have an issue.

 

[Xspyrit]

Man, some people really grow old as grumpy... Oh well, human nature I guess.

I must be the only guy who thought we got more than Spezza was worth in that deal with Dallas. Chiasson is looking real good so far in preseason which doesn't mean anything until the regular season but it looks promising. Paul was invited to Team Canada & seems to be a highly regarded junior player with NHL potential.

Guptil has good size & skills, we'll be watching Bingo this yr to see if he can break out for us & a 2nd rd pick in a deep draft also looks promising for Ottawa's scouting staff. Spezza sucked defensively, his minus was terrible, his giveaways were terrible & his point production was on the decline not to mention his injury problems seemed to be increasing. IMO he was a depreciating asset that we traded for prospect/players that are trending upwards, I think we got the better deal. I was more disappointed we lost Hemsky. I think the team is much better without Spezza.

I'm with you on this Aragorn. I'm usually behind your posts when it doesn't imply size

What's funny is people always see players with only 1 year left as rentals but NOT Spezza. That's what he was going to be for us, a rental

In that case, getting Chiasson (solid young player), Paul (very young, poised to breakout as a very good prospect), Guptill (very talented, still young enough to be straightened out) and a 2nd in a deep draft? Also, let's not forget about the budget space that allowed them to sign Legwand to a sweetheart deal. Very happy with the return and I could care less what the consensus is around here.

 

[aragorn]

You're not the only one, but your post looks like all of the others.
..."If Spezza looks like he has during the worst of his injuries for the rest of his career and all of the nobody prospects reach their fullest potential; we win this deal."

There is so much spin and unlikely prediction that it's hard for me to take them seriously.

I predict that Spezza will outproduce (NHL points) all four assets combined from now until the last one of them hangs up his skates.

Should we also subtract the giveaways that result in goals against from the goals for? Four assets is a pretty good return for a depreciating aging asset with lingering injury problems, considering we only gave up 3 assets for a younger trending upwards forward in Ryan. We'll see in a few yrs how this trade plays out. Sorry for the spin but doesn't everyone spin their arguments in their favour including you, isn't that the whole premise behind arguing for or against?