An honest examination of Erik Karlsson and the Senators Defense

[JBucephalus]

Let me preface this by saying that these are just my personal observations and that I think Karlsson was the correct choice for captain in a season where not much was expected of our team. Management clearly sees him as our future so he can learn a lot this season without the pressure of overly high expectations. His evolution as a player and captain will be interesting to say the least. Also I am interested to hear this board’s thoughts on this subject(regardless of whether or not you agree).

Erik Karlsson: He appears to be our main offensive catalyst as of right now and he is certainly adept at it. He is masterful when he’s controlling the puck at the opponents blueline, churning his skates and getting shots through to the net(something I did not see as much last season, even though I think we have all become accustomed to that attribute from his earlier seasons). It seems to me that he shoots low most of the time, attempting to get it on net for a rebound or for a deflection. That contributes to his low shooting %. I would love to see him use his slapshot a bit more but I have no real complaints about his offensive side of the game. With that said, we are certainly going to need an upgraded top 9, with regards to scoring, to help Karlsson shoulder the load and minimize the amount of risky plays he feels are necessary. His point totals are astounding for a defenseman but when we are ready to contend for the playoffs, and as Karlsson continues to grow as a player, we are going to see his TOI and point totals go down. If it helps him give the team better quality minutes then I am all for it.

I think from a defensive aspect, that he is on the ice too often. We are really lacking in the quality Defenseman department and this may be the main reason behind his TOI, especially with Methot injured. High-risk plays are an integral part of his game and they lead to some beautiful plays, however he does feel it necessary to force some plays to try and jump start the offense. This leads to a higher amount of turnovers. I know he has the capability to play solid on the defensive side of the puck, but it doesn’t always seem like the effort is there. Maybe his Achilles injury is still having an effect on his stamina, but I think anyone that has followed the Senators knows that he still has the ability to burst out and cover for a mistake he made or to jump up with the rush. He can still use those bursts to drive attackers wide. He can still use his stick to disrupt puck control and quickly force it the other way. So the capability is there. If he had his ice time cut by even 4 minutes I think we would see him be a lot more effective out there. This brings us to the rest of the D.

Phillips: It’s a real struggle out there for him right now. Age seems to have quickly caught up with him and it hurts to say that because he used to be such a stalwart d-man back there. He has been making a lot of unforced errors this season. There is no way he can handle 20+ minutes a night at this stage in his career. I think he would be much more capable as our 5-6 guy. The contract that he was given may not look good but we are a relatively young franchise and I think loyalty is a somewhat important aspect for us. Like it or not the big rig is a part of our legacy. Our loyalty to players may help to attract more lucrative free agents, although there is no way to really quantify that statement.

Borowiecki: I really like the way he plays the game but it seems his ceiling is more of a 3rd pairing D man and its clear that he is not capable of handling top pairing minutes. I do not think this team has “toughness†issues and Borowiecki is a big part of that. Everyone on this team seems willing to stand up for each other which was evidenced by Chiasson going after Sil.

Weircioch: Does not have very good foot speed but he can move the puck well and play capably on the back end in a limited role. Might like to see him more on our powerplay but he is an injury fill in and I think his ceiling is limited.

Gryba: He definitely has a noticeable physical presence some games and can play capable D. Much like Weircioch I do not think his ceiling is higher than injury fill-in or 3rd pairing.

Ceci: He has certainly panned out well so far although he is still young and can play very inconsistently. In a somewhat limited role he has been able to handle himself this year and I think going forward he will be an integral part of our Defense but he is not capable of being too much of a workhorse at the moment. I see him as a solid top 4 with definite offensive upside.

Cowen: He has struggled at times but I do not think we’re going to see him come into his own for another 2-3 years. I believe he has all the makings of a top 4 that can provide some assistance on the offensive side of the game. He also throws some pretty good checks and will back them up as we all saw in last night’s game against the Kings.

Methot: Not a lot of substance for his current season. I cannot see him being a part of our future as his back problems are concerning and he still may be asking for high-price or too long of term. I would like him to be back, as I think he is a solid partner for EK but the back can be very tricky.

In short, our defense as it is currently constructed is not capable of getting this team to the playoffs. I know as fans we have suffered through 8 years of inconsistent play but I can see some semblance of a plan. There are a lot of intriguing pieces on this team. Murray has a track record of moving pieces and I hope he is seriously considering Yandle even though the asking price would be high(unless they ask for this years first rounder). If Melnyk is willing to loosen up on the budget in the coming years, when Ceci and Cowen as well as a lot of our younger players solidify, then I think management will be capable of fixing the D to help us on the path to becoming a perennial playoff team again.

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[LuckyPierre]

Karlsson would be adequate defensively if he had a partner.

He hasn't had a partner all year. He's had a travelling circus of three bottom four defensemen to read off of every night.

Our defense is legitimately missing a #2. We have every other piece. Methot, when healthy, is a fair option at #2 given his chemistry with Karlsson, but we truly are missing that surefire partner for EK.

I challenge anyone to name me another top 20 defenseman in the league that doesn't have a set partner. It's the main reason why EK has struggled, guaranteed. That's on Murray to rectify.

 

[JBucephalus]

Karlsson would be adequate defensively if he had a partner.

He hasn't had a partner all year. He's had a travelling circus of three bottom four defensemen to read off of every night.

Our defense is legitimately missing a #2. We have every other piece. Methot, when healthy, is a fair option at #2 given his chemistry with Karlsson, but we truly are missing that surefire partner for EK.

I challenge anyone to name me another top 20 defenseman in the league that doesn't have a set partner. It's the main reason why EK has struggled, guaranteed. That's on Murray to rectify.

Yes, I certainly agree with you on that. Him not having a legitimate number 2, with Methot being injured, has certainly contributed to his poor defensive play. I also believe that his high TOI has contributed to his lapses. If he could play less and conserve more energy he would be more effective. But again, we don't have a solid top 4 at the moment to be able to help him shoulder that workload. I think finding him a capable #2(I'm honestly not too optimistic on Methot at the moment) is a priority.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Yes, I certainly agree with you on that. Him not having a legitimate number 2, with Methot being injured, has certainly contributed to his poor defensive play. I also believe that his high TOI has contributed to his lapses. If he could play less and conserve more energy he would be more effective. But again, we don't have a solid top 4 at the moment to be able to help him shoulder that workload. I think finding him a capable #2(I'm honestly not too optimistic on Methot at the moment) is a priority.

A healthy Methot as a #2 can make us playoff bound. A true #2 could bring us one elite forward away from contention.

 

[JBucephalus]

A healthy Methot as a #2 can make us playoff bound. A true #2 could bring us one elite forward away from contention.

I would disagree on that. I still think this team has too many holes even with a healthy Methot. He would certainly be a step towards fixing the disaster that is our own zone play, but not enough to will us into the playoffs. I could very well be wrong on that though.

 

[swiftwin]

Bring back Filip Kuba

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

Agree with most of this except I think you under rate Ceci

 

[pm88]

I really don't think we should give up on Cowen as some people seem to hint once in a while. I think he can be a poor mans version of Chara at some point for us. Just wish he was even nastier than he is. He has the physical gifts to back it up and would be fun to watch as well

 

[Minister of Offence]

His season has had a lot of ugly. But I'll refrain from being all that disappointed with him individually until I see that the problem isn't the fact he has to carry his partners jock strap offensively AND defensively.

If you're gonna let him play like a rover, the other guy probably can't be 36 and well over the hill.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

His season has had a lot of ugly. But I'll refrain from being all that disappointed with him individually until I see that the problem isn't the fact he has to carry his partners jock strap offensively AND defensively.

If you're gonna let him play like a rover, the other guy probably can't be 36 and well over the hill.

This, however I can't believe MacLean did or Cameron does want him to play like a rover.

 

[Minister of Offence]

This, however I can't believe MacLean did or Cameron does want him to play like a rover.

That's what he's been when he's at his best, wouldn't you agree?

 

[arglebargle]

I think the simple fact that the coaches keep playing him 30 minutes a game despite him not being so hot this year speaks volumes about the rest of the team's defencemen. If he's actually been as bad as people are saying, what does his continued overuse say about Ceci and Gryba?

I think the coaching staff has asked Karlsson to do too many things for too much of the game because the rest of the lineup is inadequate.

I think giving him a decent D-partner would help him. I also think him shortening his shifts by 5-10 seconds and playing 2-3 fewer minutes per game would help him. Those aren't options unless they get a 3rd pairing that the coaches are comfortable playing for more than 15 minutes a game.

 

[Scrub*]

Karlsson won't be the same again. If he could skate around the ice like he could in his Norris winning year he would be doing that already. He's just not the same anymore, no matter who is coaching. That being said, it would be nice to get him some help back there instead of playing him with Phillips, Boro or any other low skill defenceman.

 

[dumbdick]

Karlsson's skating has been fine at times since the accident. He can still skate just like before, but his overall game may have come back down to earth a bit so we're seeing it less. Teams also seem to have figured him out and both he and the team system have been forced to adjust by changing his style.

Ceci and Cowen will be fine. Boro and Gryba wouldn't crack many NHL rosters other than ours. I'm not ready to give up on Weir entirely because I think he could still be a very good player if he puts it all together.

 

[officeglen]

OP, answer this: which D has the second most TOI for the Sens?

 

[JBucephalus]

OP, answer this: which D has the second most TOI for the Sens?

Interesting, according to nhl.com the second total ice time leader overall for the Senators is Ceci. I will admit I was not aware of that. I've never really had a gripe with Ceci's play even with some of his mistakes but it seems I may have been giving him less credit than he deserves. He really has handled those minutes well for how young he is. The point remains that they still require some solid additions to their top 4 at the moment.

 

[JBucephalus]

Karlsson's skating has been fine at times since the accident. He can still skate just like before, but his overall game may have come back down to earth a bit so we're seeing it less. Teams also seem to have figured him out and both he and the team system have been forced to adjust by changing his style.

Ceci and Cowen will be fine. Boro and Gryba wouldn't crack many NHL rosters other than ours. I'm not ready to give up on Weir entirely because I think he could still be a very good player if he puts it all together.

Agreed on Karlssons skating. We have seen him do it even after his injury. I still believe he has the capability, but having to play heavy minutes without reliable assistance from the other D men forces him to conserve himself. I cannot deny that his injury has affected his play, we saw it in the lockout season as well as last season. He is still a dynamic player despite the injury. His ability may not be entirely 100% what it was, but he's displayed the acceleration and speed at times. As an example, I remember in the second game against St.Louis this year where Karlsson was beating out Tarasenko to loose pucks, which is not an easy feat. So the ability is still there. I am of course only speculating but that's just how I view it.

 

[Six Assets]

Interesting, according to nhl.com the second total ice time leader overall for the Senators is Ceci. I will admit I was not aware of that. I've never really had a gripe with Ceci's play even with some of his mistakes but it seems I may have been giving him less credit than he deserves. He really has handled those minutes well for how young he is. The point remains that they still require some solid additions to their top 4 at the moment.

correct, but phillips has played 23 games vs. 28 by ceci

phillips: 22:21 TOI/g

Ceci: 19:28 TOI/g

Crazy how much phillips plays

 

[JBucephalus]

correct, but phillips has played 23 games vs. 28 by ceci

phillips: 22:21 TOI/g

Ceci: 19:28 TOI/g

Crazy how much phillips plays

He really has had a rough go of it in recent years, I feel for him. I think it's a very good possibility that no matter how you divvy up the ice-time to the D that we currently have, it would not lead to significantly more wins. Maybe the thought process is that they may as well let the veteran take the abuse. Again, just one perspective.

 

[HavlatMach9]

about taking the abuse, that's one way to look at it, it does seem plausible

 

[Back in Black]

We all know there is a problem with Karlssons defensive side. He has not made many efforts to actually back check, and it is hurting the Team. He used to hustle back and that made his +/- much better in the past. And a Norris Contender.

Thank God he is at least leading the team in points.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Posted this in the EK thread, but it works here too....

EK has not been great defensively. He isn't 'great' defensively anyways, but he has always been good. Couple that with his generational offence (defence man), and you get a one-of-a-kind player.

He has not been good defensively this year, and it's not his partner's fault.

I think that there are three main things at work that are conspiring together to make EK less effective in his own zone, and I think all three are solvable in an immediate sense, if it becomes a goal.

1) because we are a young inexperienced team that struggles to score on most nights, EK carries the burden for offence. Given that he is a defenceman, when he puts the team on his shoulders offensively it leads him to always be thinking offence first, and thus always cheating a little to that side.

2) because he plays so much a night. EK has to manage his tank given that he has to play half the game. And these aren't minute munching minutes, these are expected to be game breaking minutes. It is physically and mentally draining. Sometimes players don't have the gas for a crazy back-check, especially when they have just driven the offensive rush, and sometimes they have to cheat a little to make sure that they have enough in the tank to be effective all game.

3) there is no one on the team anymore who can tell EK to relax and stop trying to do too much. Spezza is gone, Alfie is gone, Gonchar is gone. No one on the squad has the respect and pedigree to relate to EK and the expectations that are on his shoulders. It's easy for Phillips to say "take it easy EK, I know what it feels like" but the truth is, he does't, and no one else on the team is good enough to (bobby is close, and will get there here with us).

The solution is easy and pretty straight forward in my eyes, but all three issues must be dealt with together.

The Zib line has been taking more and more of the scoring burden away from EK, which is great news. That is a line that has a nice mix of experience and youth, and is a line that can actually play unsheltered minutes and produce offence. This will free Karlsson from feeling he must win games on his own. We must continue to shuffle to create that second line that can be trusted to pot a goal here and there, and we will see EK back off a little. The man wants to win, and if no one else can do it, you KNOW EK is going to give it a go, and he has been, night after night, often to the detriment to his D.

Cutting back EK's minutes by 2-4 could give him more gas in the tank to do special things, and make his epic back checks. We want him to have the gas to do his epic rushes, AND his chase-down back checks in the same shift. He does't need to play as much, especially on the PP (75% should be max).

And the last thing is that the coaching staff need to focus on freeing up EK's mind, and letting him be a star, a captain, but a player on a team, not THE team. I don't think EK has a proper role model on the team, and I think that one should be found (Alfie on staff ASAP?), they could replace Phillips, or at least the coaching staff have to realize that this side of the game is important. Sometimes young guys need to hear from people they respect, and sometimes they need to be grounded.

What we all need to remember is that EK has all of the tools, knows how to use them, and when he does he is in a class all-around, of his own. He needs to be able to play his game without feeling the weight of the team's wins and losses on his shoulders alone. the 'C' has added to this because as a star it means to some that you ARE the team. There are few things worse than being accused of not trying when you feel like you're carrying the team night after night, especially when we are still losing (this is what Spezza had endured for most of his time here).

Tackle these three issues and I bet we see EK happy, and as all-around dominant as we all know he is. We may also win a few more games!

My opinion

 

[Busboy]

Karlsson would be adequate defensively if he had a partner.

He hasn't had a partner all year. He's had a travelling circus of three bottom four defensemen to read off of every night.

Our defense is legitimately missing a #2. We have every other piece. Methot, when healthy, is a fair option at #2 given his chemistry with Karlsson, but we truly are missing that surefire partner for EK.

I challenge anyone to name me another top 20 defenseman in the league that doesn't have a set partner. It's the main reason why EK has struggled, guaranteed. That's on Murray to rectify.

I feel like our offence is in a similar position. OP says our top 9 needs to be better, but really I think it's only our top 3 that needs to be better.

Nothing really new here though, most will agree that this team is at the very least one top line forward and one top half defenseman away from being a contending team.