An Attempt to Demystify the Habs' woes against weaker opponents

[Chfan]

Purely my opinion and my view on the subject.


http://www.canadiensdaily.com/2015/...nked-opponents-a-psychological-point-of-view/

First, it is important to consider that even though the team they are playing against isn’t as good on paper, it doesn’t mean that they can’t have a good game.
If you look at it from the underdog’s point of view, what could be more motivating than to play one of the top teams in the league? The Habs have been in the top tier of the league’s standings right from the start and are currently in first place in the Eastern conference. Teams are considering them like one of the teams to beat or as a measuring stick, making their motivation really high to beat the Canadiens. Bottom-feeder or not, they want to win too and as you have to highlight the poor play of the Habs, you also have to give credit to the team against who they lost.

Second, to be a successful team, you have to believe that you can be one. The coaches have to not only prepare the players for the game but also prepare them mentally for the whole season and the playoffs. For that, every sports coach will try to make their team believe in themselves, and believe that they are the best. This belief is also what makes the Habs such a resilient team when they are trailing by a goal or two. They believe that they can win any game.

Now, take in that they have this mentality in the locker room and think that they are going against a team that is ranked about 20 places below them in the standings. Sometimes, it doesn’t have to be a conscious underestimation of the opposing team. It can simply be a feel that they are going to win, making them less prepared for a full physical effort. The coaches are obviously trying to warn them that it can be a trap game, and they know it. But, somehow, that “high gear” is just that much hard to get on when you’re playing a bottom-feeder versus a rival like Boston or a top team like Chicago. It is not easy to manage this situation. As a coach, you don’t exactly want to be telling your players that they can’t beat that team to motivate them. You tell them to get ready, but in the end, the level of motivation of each player stays between their own ears.

What do you guys think?

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[Le Tricolore]

Post part of your article here. Just because you're an HF Partner doesn't mean I want to click your link without knowing anything about your writing.

 

[Chfan]

Post part of your article here. Just because you're an HF Partner doesn't mean I want to click your link without knowing anything about your writing.

Sorry man, I'm really new at this!

 

[Pricef*]

Great read.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Chfan, I didn't find your article offered a new perspective on the subject. It's sort of what the casual fan might already think or know. I think the next step in your future writing should be to include statistics of some sort, quotes, analysis, stuff like that. But I wish you best of luck in this new pursuit, I know it isn't easy. I hope this doesn't sound harsh, but I did take the time to read the entire article.

 

[Chfan]

Chfan, I didn't find your article offered a new perspective on the subject. It's sort of what the casual fan might already think or know. I think the next step in your future writing should be to include statistics of some sort, quotes, analysis, stuff like that. But I wish you best of luck in this new pursuit, I know it isn't easy. I hope this doesn't sound harsh, but I did take the time to read the entire article.

Very helpful comment. Yes, it is really not easy but it is a very enjoyable process. I tend to agree with you on all points and I will improve the quality of the articles as I get more experience writing them. Thanks a lot!

 

[Chfan]

Great read.

Thanks!

 

[mustardnight*]

Chfan, I didn't find your article offered a new perspective on the subject. It's sort of what the casual fan might already think or know. I think the next step in your future writing should be to include statistics of some sort, quotes, analysis, stuff like that. But I wish you best of luck in this new pursuit, I know it isn't easy. I hope this doesn't sound harsh, but I did take the time to read the entire article.

Make sure you don't believe that statistics justify an article.

100% of the time it works 60% of the time.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Make sure you don't believe that statistics justify an article.

100% of the time it works 60% of the time.

No, I'm not suggesting that at all, just using it as an example of the type of content that makes an argument specific enough to be interesting. ChFan's article lacks some specifics or context that statistics could provide. For example, how are other top teams performing against weaker opponents? Is the situation particular to the Habs or general? Does the weakness in performance show up only in the scoreline or elsewhere (which is to say, some other stat). Was Price playing in those games? Etc.

I'm just giving some insight into what I would personally find interesting in such an article. Other people can weigh in with other opinions.

 

[Shred]

For example, how are other top teams performing against weaker opponents? Is the situation particular to the Habs or general? Does the weakness in performance show up only in the scoreline or elsewhere (which is to say, some other stat). Was Price playing in those games? Etc.

Exactly what I was hoping to find here. We always complain that the habs lose against poor teams, but maybe every team complains about the same... clearly top teams don't only lose to top teams. Guess I could figure it out myself but I'm not the one trying to get visitors on my site.

Edit:
Actually, just for a quick exercice, if I consider Arizona, Edmonton, Carolina and Buffalo to be the 4 true worst teams, here are the top teams who have lost to them:

Montreal (6) : Buffalo (3), Edmonton (2), Arizona
Tampa Bay (3): Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton
Detroit (1): Buffalo
NYIslanders (2): Buffalo, Edmonton
Pittsburgh (1): Carolina

Nashville (1): Carolina
St-Louis (0)
Chicago (2): Edmonton, Arizona
Anaheim (2): Arizona (2)
*San Jose (6): Buffalo (2), Carolina, Edmonton (2), Arizona

Not really a clear cut top team like the others but included to have 5 teams per association and because they lose a lot to bad teams too.

So it seems to show that Montreal loses way more to the worst teams. I didn't check who played more against the worst teams yet, whether the #1 or #2 goalie was playing, whether it was the second game of a back to back for one of the teams, and whether they were home and away games, all among probably a multitude of other factors that could explain these statistics. Maybe someone with more time to waste will dig into that after the season

 

[mustardnight*]

Exactly what I was hoping to find here. We always complain that the habs lose against poor teams, but maybe every team complains about the same... clearly top teams don't only lose to top teams. Guess I could figure it out myself but I'm not the one trying to get visitors on my site.

Edit:
Actually, just for a quick exercice, if I consider Arizona, Edmonton, Carolina and Buffalo to be the 4 true worst teams, here are the top teams who have lost to them:

Montreal (6) : Buffalo (3), Edmonton (2), Arizona
Tampa Bay (3): Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton
Detroit (1): Buffalo
NYIslanders (2): Buffalo, Edmonton
Pittsburgh (1): Carolina

Nashville (1): Carolina
St-Louis (0)
Chicago (2): Edmonton, Arizona
Anaheim (2): Arizona (2)
*San Jose (6): Buffalo (2), Carolina, Edmonton (2), Arizona

Not really a clear cut top team like the others but included to have 5 teams per association and because they lose a lot to bad teams too.

So it seems to show that Montreal loses way more to the worst teams. I didn't check who played more against the worst teams yet, whether the #1 or #2 goalie was playing, whether it was the second game of a back to back for one of the teams, and whether they were home and away games, all among probably a multitude of other factors that could explain these statistics. Maybe someone with more time to waste will dig into that after the season

Ah statistics, what did I write above? Have they all played the same amount of games against these teams?

Buffalo definitely has our number. We also lost in OT in two of those games.

 

[Shred]

Ah statistics, what did I write above? Have they all played the same amount of games against these teams?

I did not extrapolate anything from the data, I only provided it, and also mentioned potential problems, including what you just said in your post. Did you even read what I wrote?

Note that since there is one bad team from each conference, the amount played against each of them at the end of the season should be equal.

 

[Wats]

Tokarski played a lot against the lower ranked teams.

 

[AntonCH]

How about looking at the coach / coaching staff and their inability to fire up the troops?
2 points is 2 points and if the team consistently has a hard time firing themselves up for these lesser teams than look no further than the coaches

Bowman had the ability to fire up better teams against worse competition!

 

[Devourers]

I remember as a kid Detroit once had this prolific year where they were practically unstoppable. Anyways I remember reading the scores in the newspaper one day and Detroit actually lost to San Jose who at the time was having one of their worst seasons on record.

I think there is some credibility in the theory that sometimes teams don't show up against weaker opposition. I also think puck luck is a ***** sometimes too.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

Purely my opinion and my view on the subject.


http://www.canadiensdaily.com/2015/...nked-opponents-a-psychological-point-of-view/

What do you guys think?

I think the Oilers had Tokarski's number (twice). I think the Sabres are an underrated team that will make waves next season. I think the Habs are so full of themselves that they take non-playoff teams too lightly. Unfortunately, they can't face Boston 82 times a season and win 60 or more of them.

 

[habsfanatics*]

I think this is mostly do to the human brain, a psychological aspect of playing up to your opponents level etc.

Competition breeds quality imo.

These teams can also always get up for a game against the habs.

I'd be curious as to how often someone like Usain Bolt breaks world records in trials/rehearsal vs live performance, ie Olympics etc. I think he would would have a tendency to save his best for what he considers to matter the most.

No idea if this is true or not, but I can see the players actually upping their game in games they perceive to matter more.

 

[habsfanatics*]

Due ^

 

[Winter Eclipse]

First article was about how Therrien is a great coach.

Second article is about how playing like ***** against a garbage opponent is not at all a bad sign.

Prediction for 3rd article: Giving credit to goaltending is overrated, we should really be praising the coach, and here's why!

 

[Scintillating10]

They just can't get ready for weaker teams. Team plays on emotion

 

[habsfanatics*]

First article was about how Therrien is a great coach.

Second article is about how playing like ***** against a garbage opponent is not at all a bad sign.

Prediction for 3rd article: Giving credit to goaltending is overrated, we should really be praising the coach, and here's why!

No maybe the 3rd article will be, winning against the better teams is not at all a bad sign.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

No maybe the 3rd article will be, winning against the better teams is not at all a bad sign.

We have MT and DD, how could there possibly be a better team than us?

 

[Teufelsdreck]

We have MT and DD, how could there possibly be a better team than us?

Another way of looking at it is: The Habs are so strong that they can afford to carry a few weak sisters.

 

[Pricef*]

We have MT and DD, how could there possibly be a better team than us?

You're right, we have a stud all-star lineup. WAIT..

 

[Winter Eclipse]

Another way of looking at it is: The Habs are so strong that they can afford to carry a few weak sisters.

Whaaa-??

I've been assured the Habs actually have a garbage roster, and it's only due to the cunning defensive tactical genius of MT, and the never-say-die inspirational work ethic of "Mr. 47 points" DD that the Habs are 1st in the East; now if only we could get lazy *** Eller to give the bare minimum 40+ points most other zero PP time 3rd line Centers put up, boy howdy we'd be all set!!