All-time GVT

[unknown33]

http://www.puckprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=108
Do you think it's useful?

List is sorted by overall regular season career GVT.
Take a look at year-by-year finishes.


To test the credibility of GVT here are the 2009-10 regular season top players for each position:

G
1 Ryan Miller
2 Evgeni Nabokov
3 Ilya Bryzgalov
4 Henrik Lundqvist
5 Jimmy Howard

F
1 Alex Ovechkin
2 Sidney Crosby
3 Henrik Sedin
4 Nicklas Backstrom
5 Alexander Semin

D
1 Duncan Keith
2 Mike Green
3 Drew Doughty
4 Chris Pronger
5 Nicklas Lidstrom


@optimus: Oh sorry!
What is GVT?
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=233

Click to read more...

 

[optimus2861]

Might help to know what "GVT" means.

 

[jkrx]

Might help to know what "GVT" means.

Goals over threshold apparently

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=233

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Goals over threshold apparently

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=233

Interesting stat, but from reading the description it doesn't seem to factor in PP or PK time. Most people are critical of Mike Green because he is something like the 4th or 5th penalty killer among defenseman on his team. I would think if that were factored in that his position would be lower.

 

[overpass]

GVT is Puck Prospectus's player value metric, Goals Versus Threshold. The historical numbers linked to here go back to 1944.

It's pretty good for a single-number metric. Conceptually, it divides every team's performance into offensive, defensive, and goaltending pools, and then splits up the credit for each to each individual player. Offensive GVT is based on goals and assists, with goals given more weight. It's also split into power play, even strength, and shorthanded performance. Defensive GVT is based on shot prevention while the player is on the ice, and goaltending is based on save percentage.

There are certainly some oversimplifications in this model of value, that's why it's a model, not reality. But it seems to work pretty well for current NHL players.

However, I'm not sure how well it works for historical seasons. There is far less data available before 1997-98, when the NHL implemented their real-time scoring system to track time on ice. Before 1968, there is no plus-minus and little special teams data available. I have no idea how the model splits up credit for players pre-1968 especially, or what assumptions it uses.

Also, I don't believe there is any adjustment for strength of league, so the league total GVT doubled from the 1966-67 to 1967-68 season. This makes it very difficult to compare across eras.

If you want to judge how well it performs, here are the top 50 players in career regular season GVT, from the link.

1 | Wayne Gretzky | 542
2 | Gordie Howe | 519
3 | Ray Bourque | 492
4 | Patrick Roy | 434
5 | Dominik Hasek | 426
6 | Al MacInnis | 378
7 | Jaromir Jagr | 376
8 | Paul Coffey | 367
9 | Jacques Plante | 362
10 | Phil Esposito | 357
11 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 355
12 | Tony Esposito | 355
13 | Steve Yzerman | 351
14 | Mario Lemieux | 349
15 | Jean Beliveau | 345
16 | Glenn Hall | 344
17 | Bobby Orr | 341
18 | Mark Messier | 340
19 | Joe Sakic | 338
20 | Red Kelly | 327
21 | Maurice Richard | 326
22 | Marcel Dionne | 325
23 | Stan Mikita | 319
24 | Larry Murphy | 311
25 | Martin Brodeur | 307
26 | Phil Housley | 307
27 | Brett Hull | 298
28 | Bobby Hull | 296
29 | Denis Potvin | 293
30 | Mats Sundin | 292
31 | Ron Francis | 292
32 | Mike Modano | 291
33 | Chris Chelios | 290
34 | Larry Robinson | 289
35 | Scott Stevens | 287
36 | Brendan Shanahan | 285
37 | Teemu Selanne | 285
38 | Guy Lafleur | 282
39 | Alex Delvecchio | 278
40 | Brad Park | 272
41 | Brian Leetch | 272
42 | Ed Belfour | 271
43 | Sergei Fedorov | 270
44 | Jean Ratelle | 270
45 | Frank Mahovlich | 269
46 | Mark Recchi | 268
47 | Luc Robitaille | 263
48 | Pierre Turgeon | 261
49 | Norm Ullman | 258
50 | Ted Lindsay | 258

Doug Harvey was at #63, with 240 GVT.

And here are the year-by-year leaders.

Bill Durnan | 43-44 | 59.3
Bill Durnan | 44-45 | 46.9
Bill Durnan | 45-46 | 28.8
Bill Durnan | 46-47 | 39.3
Turk Broda | 47-48 | 30.5
Bill Durnan | 48-49 | 35.6
Bill Durnan | 49-50 | 27.0
Terry Sawchuk | 50-51 | 37.6
Terry Sawchuk | 51-52 | 38.8
Gordie Howe | 52-53 | 41.2
Harry Lumley | 53-54 | 35.5
Harry Lumley | 54-55 | 41.3
Jacques Plante | 55-56 | 34.1
Glenn Hall | 56-57 | 41.3
Jacques Plante | 57-58 | 29.3
Jacques Plante | 58-59 | 44.6
Glenn Hall | 59-60 | 31.7
Glenn Hall | 60-61 | 35.4
Jacques Plante | 61-62 | 44.0
Glenn Hall | 62-63 | 24.5
Glenn Hall | 63-64 | 38.0
Norm Ullman | 64-65 | 26.9
Glenn Hall | 65-66 | 30.0
Edward Giacomin | 66-67 | 27.2
Jean Ratelle | 67-68 | 22.3
Phil Esposito | 68-69 | 35.6
Bobby Orr | 69-70 | 46.5
Bobby Orr | 70-71 | 51.0
Bobby Orr | 71-72 | 45.9
Bobby Orr | 72-73 | 37.0
Bernie Parent | 73-74 | 59.3
Bernie Parent | 74-75 | 50.4
Ken Dryden | 75-76 | 51.1
Guy Lafleur | 76-77 | 37.0
Guy Lafleur | 77-78 | 36.5
Mike Palmateer | 78-79 | 40.1
Marcel Dionne | 79-80 | 30.2
Wayne Gretzky | 80-81 | 32.5
Wayne Gretzky | 81-82 | 42.6
Wayne Gretzky | 82-83 | 41.0
Wayne Gretzky | 83-84 | 44.3
Wayne Gretzky | 84-85 | 44.5
Wayne Gretzky | 85-86 | 37.0
Wayne Gretzky | 86-87 | 39.7
Mario Lemieux | 87-88 | 34.9
Mario Lemieux | 88-89 | 42.1
Patrick Roy | 89-90 | 35.0
Ed Belfour | 90-91 | 42.6
Patrick Roy | 91-92 | 38.2
Curtis Joseph | 92-93 | 40.2
Dominik Hasek | 93-94 | 43.9
Dominik Hasek | 94-95 | 55.5
Mario Lemieux | 95-96 | 37.6
Dominik Hasek | 96-97 | 49.7
Dominik Hasek | 97-98 | 54.0
Dominik Hasek | 98-99 | 54.4
Olaf Kolzig | 99-00 | 30.2
Sean Burke | 00-01 | 35.2
Jose Theodore | 01-02 | 43.1
Marty Turco | 02-03 | 34.6
Roberto Luongo | 03-05 | 47.1
Miikka Kiprusoff | 05-06 | 40.2
Roberto Luongo | 06-07 | 38.5
Alexander Ovechkin | 07-08 | 33.1
Tim Thomas | 08-09 | 37.7
Ryan Miller | 09-10 | 35.3

The year-by-year variability of goalie stats and the difficulty in extracting team defence from goalie play in earlier years cause goalies to dominate the single-season leaderboards. Here are the top skaters, year-by-year.

Lorne Carr | 43-44 | 24.4
Maurice Richard | 44-45 | 34.6
Max Bentley | 45-46 | 24.2
Maurice Richard | 46-47 | 27.2
Ted Lindsay | 47-48 | 19.8
Ted Lindsay | 48-49 | 22.4
Ted Lindsay | 49-50 | 24.3
Gordie Howe | 50-51 | 32.5
Gordie Howe | 51-52 | 33.8
Gordie Howe | 52-53 | 41.2
Gordie Howe | 53-54 | 30.2
Bernie Geoffrion | 54-55 | 25.7
Jean Beliveau | 55-56 | 34.0
Gordie Howe | 56-57 | 28.1
Dickie Moore | 57-58 | 25.0
Dickie Moore | 58-59 | 28.4
Jean Beliveau | 59-60 | 21.4
Bernie Geoffrion | 60-61 | 28.6
Bobby Hull | 61-62 | 21.2
Gordie Howe | 62-63 | 20.8
Bobby Hull | 63-64 | 25.6
Norm Ullman | 64-65 | 26.9
Bobby Hull | 65-66 | 27.6
Stan Mikita | 66-67 | 26.8
Jean Ratelle | 67-68 | 22.3
Phil Esposito | 68-69 | 35.6
Bobby Orr | 69-70 | 46.5
Bobby Orr | 70-71 | 51.0
Bobby Orr | 71-72 | 45.9
Bobby Orr | 72-73 | 37.0
Bobby Orr | 73-74 | 43.8
Bobby Orr | 74-75 | 48.5
Denis Potvin | 75-76 | 29.2
Guy Lafleur | 76-77 | 37.0
Guy Lafleur | 77-78 | 36.5
Mike Bossy | 78-79 | 31.0
Marcel Dionne | 79-80 | 30.2
Wayne Gretzky | 80-81 | 32.5
Wayne Gretzky | 81-82 | 42.6
Wayne Gretzky | 82-83 | 41.0
Wayne Gretzky | 83-84 | 44.3
Wayne Gretzky | 84-85 | 44.5
Wayne Gretzky | 85-86 | 37.0
Wayne Gretzky | 86-87 | 39.7
Mario Lemieux | 87-88 | 34.9
Mario Lemieux | 88-89 | 42.1
Ray Bourque | 89-90 | 24.8
Wayne Gretzky | 90-91 | 31.0
Mario Lemieux | 91-92 | 26.5
Mario Lemieux | 92-93 | 35.9
Sergei Fedorov | 93-94 | 30.0
Eric Lindros | 94-95 | 32.1
Mario Lemieux | 95-96 | 37.6
Mario Lemieux | 96-97 | 30.8
Jaromir Jagr | 97-98 | 26.4
Jaromir Jagr | 98-99 | 34.8
Pavel Bure | 99-00 | 27.4
Joe Sakic | 00-01 | 34.9
Jarome Iginla | 01-02 | 29.5
Milan Hejduk | 02-03 | 29.0
Martin St. Louis | 03-05 | 28.9
Jaromir Jagr | 05-06 | 29.2
Sidney Crosby | 06-07 | 28.5
Alexander Ovechkin | 07-08 | 33.1
Alexander Ovechkin | 08-09 | 27.3
Alexander Ovechkin | 09-10 | 32.7

 

[pitseleh]

There are certainly some oversimplifications in this model of value, that's why it's a model, not reality. But it seems to work pretty well for current NHL players.

I agree, though I do think that their goaltending numbers tend to be inflated. They don't pass the smell test to me.

However, I'm not sure how well it works for historical seasons. There is far less data available before 1997-98, when the NHL implemented their real-time scoring system to track time on ice. Before 1968, there is no plus-minus and little special teams data available. I have no idea how the model splits up credit for players pre-1968 especially, or what assumptions it uses.

Also, I don't believe there is any adjustment for strength of league, so the league total GVT doubled from the 1966-67 to 1967-68 season. This makes it very difficult to compare across eras.

Yeah, looking at the list it appears that modern players are getting a boost in their numbers. 10 of the top 14 players played a significant chunk of their careers in the nineties.

Having Brett Hull ahead of Bobby Hull really shows that effect.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Having Phil Housley at #26 shows that it places too much weight in a defenseman's offense.

All the usual pros and cons of using save % as the sole measure of a goaltender apply, as well.

 

[overpass]

Having Phil Housley at #26 shows that it places too much weight in a defenseman's offense.

I don't know if I'd say that. Offensive contributions are fairly easy to quantify and value. I'd say, rather that it's difficult to quantify how much players contribute or give away defensively.

That's why I prefer to use a plus-minus based system to value a player's career, rather than one that gives more points for scoring goals than preventing them.

All the usual pros and cons of using save % as the sole measure of a goaltender apply, as well.

To be fair, I think the goaltender gets a small amount of credit for shot prevention in GVT, at least for current years. So it's not just save percentage, just almost all save percentage. For example, about 15% of Brodeur' value in this fall under DGVT, or defensive GVT, which I assume is shot prevention.

 

[Mayor Bee]

[deleted]

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The question with Housley is the same as it is with Mike Green: do the defensive deficiencies offset the offensive production? I have a difficult time imaging that either Green or Housley is defensively poor enough that it offsets the difference in offense from them to the next most productive defenseman.

Phil Housley is ranked over contemporaries Chris Chelios and Scott Stevens.

No team would ever win a Cup with Phil Housley as their #1 defenseman and probably not with Phil Housley as their #2 either.

 

[Mayor Bee]

[deleted]

 

[Canadiens1958]

Team Cumulative GVT

Team cumulative GVT per season could be interesting.Playoff individual GYT and team cumulative as well.

Since 1987 - Gretzky no GVT leader has been on a cup winning team while during the O6 era, leaders on cup winning teams were plentiful.

More than an interesting coincidence. Worth exploring.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

Team cumulative GVT per season could be interesting.Playoff individual GYT and team cumulative as well.

Since 1987 - Gretzky no GVT leader has been on a cup winning team while during the O6 era, leaders on cup winning teams were plentiful.

More than an interesting coincidence. Worth exploring.

30 teams compared to 6, that could be the main factor.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Since 1987 - Gretzky no GVT leader has been on a cup winning team while during the O6 era, leaders on cup winning teams were plentiful.

More than an interesting coincidence. Worth exploring.

As someone mentioned, goalies tend to dominate the single season leaderboards. If you look at skaters only: Lemieux in 92', Sakic in 01', and St. Louis in 04' were also leaders on Cup winners.

Defensemen may be another area worth looking into. Orr was the only one to lead with goalies included (4x), and if you look at skaters only Orr does it 2 more times, and Potvin and Bourque do it once each

 

[unknown33]

Having Brett Hull ahead of Bobby Hull really shows that effect.

That's why looking at overall numbers isn't telling like for all stats...

Bobby Hull has 11 Top 10 finishes Regular Season and and 5 in the Playoffs
Brett Hull has 2 Top 10 finishes in the Regular Season and 4 in the Playoffs

 

[unknown33]

All the usual pros and cons of using save % as the sole measure of a goaltender apply, as well.

Pretty much all other stats like GAA/Wins/SO are a derivation using more for goaltenders uninfluenceable statistics.

GAA = (1 - save percentage) x shots against per game
SO depends on SV%, shots against with a random 0 goals cutoff
Win depends on GA (=save percentage x shots against) and GF (hardly any influence)

 

[unknown33]

Phil Housley is ranked over contemporaries Chris Chelios and Scott Stevens.

Again don't look at the overall regular season numbers.


Yearly Top40 finshes

Phil Housley
Regular Season: 12 13 17 17 19 23 31 31 34 38
Playoffs: None

Chris Chelios:
Regular Season: 12 17 22 24 26 28 29 29
Playoffs: 2 6 9 15 16 24 27 28 30

Huge edge for Chelios.

Scott Stevens:
Regular Season: 14 18 19 24 29 34 35
Playoffs: 10 14 20 28 32 33 39

That's closer but I'll still give it to Stevens.

Regardless of that Mayor Bee made a good point ... hockey fans just love the tough and hitting defensemen which may lead to overrating them (opposite for the 'no defense' - defensmen)

 

[Canadiens1958]

Overview

Few comments about the GVT - all time.

Worthwhile but a presentation in 10 season increments would have been more relevant and interesting.

Sloppy in places - #174 Syl Apps Sr and Jr seem to be blended.

Don Beaupre > Grant Fuhr and similar head scratchers abound.
Jay Bouwmeester at 989 could be justified but not in the context of some of the other rankings.

There seems to be a quirk, perhaps a template past a certain point.
Claude Cyr (4433) - one period(1 goal) injury replacement goalie for the 1958-59 Montreal Canadiens who played all of one complete season in the minors EHL is ranked ahead of Earl Balfour (4519) with 288 NHL regular season games including two full 70 game seasons.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Just shows that GVT doesn't really overcome the main problem with hockey metrics - player interdependency. As long as they all fail to come to grips with that, we may as well go by goals and assists.

 

[overpass]

I'm not saying that Housley is the equal of the other two, but I think when you account for the vastly different playing styles and situations, perhaps it's time that we actually do a very careful re-evaluation of his career instead of resorting to the "No defense, couldn't hit, couldn't win" oversimplification.

When comparing Housley to Stevens or Chelios, over the course of a career, it's important to consider that they played different roles at even strength. While there are no numbers to support this, Stevens and Chelios almost certainly faced stronger opposition, as they were matched up against the other teams top lines. They would have also taken more defensive zone draws, while Housley would have taken more offensive zone draws, as their coaches would play to their strengths. These factors make it easier for Housley to get positive points, plus-minus.

GVT isn't able to take this into account. No numbers-based rating system is, except for recent seasons where detailed play-by-play records available. In many cases this effect may not be a big deal, but in the case of Stevens and Chelios it almost certainly is.

I'm not sure how GVT allocates credit for team penalty killing either. Most likely it's (team penalty killing goals above replacement) divided among players proportionately by shorthanded ice time. That could very well underrate Stevens and Chelios's contributions while shorthanded, as one would expect that they would be more responsible than the average player on the ice for their team's defensive success.

 

[unknown33]

Sloppy in places - #174 Syl Apps Sr and Jr seem to be blended.

Don Beaupre > Grant Fuhr and similar head scratchers abound.
Jay Bouwmeester at 989 could be justified but not in the context of some of the other rankings.

There seems to be a quirk, perhaps a template past a certain point.
Claude Cyr (4433) - one period(1 goal) injury replacement goalie for the 1958-59 Montreal Canadiens who played all of one complete season in the minors EHL is ranked ahead of Earl Balfour (4519) with 288 NHL regular season games including two full 70 game seasons.

As the rankings are based only on objective numbers there's nothing to justify here.
You can question the statistical methods used, but not the gained results.

And for the fifth time ... I always thought GVT might be useful for comparing players seasonwise. Just like with pts/g/a.

The players beeing sorted by career overall GVT is a decent solution (by no means an All-time ranking) and certainly better than organized by teams/alphabeticly.