Guys, I’m leaving for my vacation this afternoon and I’ll be out of town for about a week. Internet access will be infrequent at best, but of course I’ll check back here when I have the chance.
Here’s my take on the series. I know I wrote a lot, but I’m basically trying to anticipate and respond to an entire week’s worth of discussion before I leave. Thanks to the GMs in advance for voting. Good luck Arrbez; congrats if you win, and good effort if you lose.
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The Montreal Canadiens’ advantages
Superior playoff experience. The Canadiens’ roster is full of proven playoff veterans who raised their level of play in the post-season. The Canadiens feature four Conn Smythe winners (Mikita, Dryden, Dye & Crozier) and four players have led the playoffs in goals, assists or points (Mikita, Abel, Dye & Stapleton). Tough, gritty defensive players like Leswick, Westfall and Ashbee were also known for saving their best performances for the postseason. The Habs roster has won the Stanley Cup a combined 52 times, roughly double the amount that Aurora has. Finally, the Habs have a solid amount of international experience as well: five Canadiens were members of Canada’s victorious team in the 1972 Summit Series (Mikita, Dryden, Park Lapointe, Stapleton). Despite the historic performances of Henderson and Esposito Kharlamov, it was Brad Park who was named Canada’s MVP. Overall the Habs have superior success, both at the team individual level, in the playoffs and in international tournaments.
Stronger depth. The Canadiens have stronger depth at every position. The Habs’ fourth line features Leswick and Skov, two linemates from the Detroit dynasty. Leswick was a tough, fiery player who attempted to, and usually succeeded in, throwing opponents off their game, while Skov relied on strong positional play to restrict passing and force shooters to take low-probability shots from bad angles. Westfall was the top shutdown winger on Orr’s Bruins and later captained the Islanders for many years (including leading them from a 3-0 series deficit to a game 7 victory where he scored the only goal). On defense, Beck provides significant size, toughness, and the ability to quarterback a powerplay while Ashbee provides veteran leadership and strong positioning. In net, Crozier has a Conn Smythe and Melanson is a proven backup on a dynasty team. The role of depth becomes even more crucial because the Habs are well-rested while the Tigers are coming off a grueling 7-game series. The Tigers’ fourth line features a decent combination of individual talents, but I’m not sure if it comes together. There’s a goon (yes, who had some talent, but required Yzerman to help him reach his offensive potential), a skilled, two-way pest, and a power forward. Only one of those players (Linsemen) really seems fit for fourth-line duty, as Probert contributes little and Nolan won’t be able to provide much offense in limited ice time and was never great defensively. The Tigers’ bottom two defensemen, while solid, were never regarded as the top defenders in their league and lack the size, mobility and playoff experience of Beck and Ashbee. Hern is an intriguing pick but Irbe is a very marginal goalie in an all-time draft. Overall the Canadiens have stronger depth at every position.
Better goaltending. While I appreciate the historical significance of Dryden vs. Tretiak, in a seven-game series, primarily involving NHL players and an NHL style, Dryden is far more proven. Even though Dryden lacks longevity, he was one of the most dominant goalies in NHL history, with 1 Conn Smythe, 6 Stanley Cups, 5 first-team all-star selections and 5 Vezinas. Dryden is proven as an underdog and as a favorite. He nearly singlehandedly won the Stanley Cup in 1971, shutting down Orr’s Bruins and Mikita and Hull’s Hawks. Montreal was facing a higher-seeded team in each of its three matchups that spring, and the “big three” on defense was not yet in existence. Later in his career, on a powerhouse team, Dryden also used his cool, calm demeanor to give his teammates confidence and open up their game. I’m in the group of GMs that thinks that Tretiak is a strong, capable starting goalie, but he lacks Dryden’s year-after-year consistency and proven playoff performances in the NHL.
Top-end scoring. It’s worth mentioning that my team has two multiple Art Ross winners (Mikita and Dye), versus none for the Tigers. Dye and Abel have both led the league in goals at least twice.
Countering the Tigers’ advantages.
Coaching. While Adams is a good coach (won three Stanley Cups, named coach of the year twice) Ivan (three Stanley Cups and six first-place regular-season finishes) is superior (top 5-8 all-time, I think). The Canadiens can minimize Ivan’s superior coaching record through home ice advantage, which prevents Ivan from getting his preferred match-ups in 4 of 7 games. I also think that the Canadiens’ team is very well-suited to Adams style; it features many composed, professional veterans with track records of strong leadership (Mikita, Abel, Roberts, Armstrong, Westfall, Magnuson) and two-way play. Ivan, while a great coach, might not have been the best choice for Aurora. Would a coach who focused on two-way play so much be willing to play Lafontaine, Probert and Ozolinsh?
Size & toughness on Aurora’s second line. Aurora’s second line is very large and tough. Their sheer strength could potentially pose a threat. I believe the Habs can respond to this for the following reasons. First, as shown during the 1997 Cup Finals, it was disciplined positional play, not brute strength, that was used to shut down Lindros and Leclair. In the first three rounds, every team was throwing their biggest, strongest players at Lindros, and he dominated. Only the smooth, sublime Lidstrom (in the Cup finals) was able to slow The Big E down. On the Habs, Brad Park and Pat Stapleton are both very strong positional defenders. While they were fairly large and strong, it was their disciplined positional play (and offense) that allowed them to become all-star defenders. Glen Skov, Ed Westfall and Ken Mosdell were strong positional defensive forwards who relied on anticipating the play and poke-checking the puck out of harm’s way. Thus, my strong, positional players should be able to offset Lindros’s size and strength, just like it did in the 1997 Cup finals.
With that said, if there are people who doubt that strategy, I do have several tough, large players who can play Lindros’s style. Barry Beck (6’4”, 215 lbs), Marty McSorely (6’2”, 235 lbs) and George Armstrong (6’2”, 220 lbs) have proven repeatedly that they’re willing to take on opponents’ biggest, toughest players. They’re ready for a fight too—if I lose a #6 defenseman or third-line forward for five minutes and Aurora loses their #2 centre, I’ll have an advantage. Lapointe and Park, while lacking Lindros’s size, were both aggressive hitters, and can wear Lindros down in a series.
Small top line for Montreal. While my top line is quite small, Mikita and Wharram faced the largest, toughest defensemen routinely during their primes. Aside from Aurora’s second line (and I already discussed how I’d deal with them) and Probert (who won’t see much ice time) there’s nobody on the Tigers that is significantly larger than what Mikita and Wharram are used to seeing.
Most importantly, Aurora’s checking line (Linseman/Backstrom/Ellis), which will presumably face the Mikita line, has an average size of 5’10” 178 lbs; the Mikita line has an average size of 5’9.3”, 169 lbs. I don’t think that a 9-pound, 2/3 of an inch advantage is significant. The only defensemen of above-average size are Bourque (I give him his due as the best defenseman in the series) and Ramage (a player of Mikita’s caliber would significantly outplay Ramage, if he were given significant icetime).
Strategy. I expect my top line to face a tough battle from Aurora’s top defense pair and third or fourth forward line; but my top line’s speed, stickhandling ability and the presence of a two-time Hart, four-time Art Ross winner should allow them to prevail. Also, if Aurora focuses too much on my top line, my second line (with Babe Dye, a two-time Art Ross and Conn Smythe winner, and Sid Abel, Hart-winner and two-time goal-scoring leader) can step up and provide enough offense to win.
I have home ice advantage. My strategy will involve some line-matching. I will play my fourth (defensive) line, plus my strong positional defenders like Stapleton and Park, against the Tigers’ second line in an effort to minimize their scoring and physical play. My third line (very strong defensively) plus Lapointe and Magnuson (two excellent defensive blueliners, both of whom were hard hitters) will guard Aurora’s top line. Dryden will start every game barring exceptional circumstances.
