Coach Discussion: All Purpose Coaching Thread Part III

[Whileee]

Pretty simple to me. Paul got two seasons with a top 5 roster and didn't deliver. Let's move on to the next coach. Could end up being worse or could be better but we know what Paul brings (not Stanley Cups). I'd think Paul probably lands as a slightly above average coach which is solid but I truly believe that sometimes a team just needs fresh perspectives and motivation.

The Jets were a top-end team over the past two seasons. They reached the Conference Finals and ran into a better goalie in MAF (Vegas). Last season in the playoffs, they outplayed the eventual SC Champion for the most part of a 6-game series, but again ran into a hotter goalie in Binnington. If coaches were fired for not winning a Stanley Cup with a good roster, most of the outstanding coaches in NHL history would have been fired prematurely.

Since so many seem to like to reference 5v5 shot metrics as a measure of team performance, here is where the Jets stood in their last two play-off seasons (combined)...

5v5, Score/Venue Adjusted:

CF% 52.6 (#3 in the NHL)
xGF% 54.5 (#1 in the NHL)

Their PP ranked #6 in goals/60 minutes among all playoff teams.
Their PK ranked #7 in goals against / 60 minutes.

So, they were the best team in the league in expected goals share at 5v5, and in the top end in special teams combined.

 

[Whileee]

Interesting interview by Maurice today. A few nuggets...

He's clearly not that happy with their play recently, and in particular doesn't like that they have turned into a team that just relies on the rush, rather than zone time and cycling. He feels that gives his D less stress than trying to trade rushes and defend more in their own zone. I think the current line-up is really oriented to rush, the top two lines have become focused on rush hockey instead of cycling more, and Lowry's line lacks good cycling players without Copp.

He clearly knows that his D is overmatched in terms of skill. He likes how hard they compete, but realizes their limitations. Praise for Poolman and his development. Even more praise for Kulikov, indicating he thought he was a big loss. I think we'll see Kulikov slide back into the 2nd pair when he's back.

Obviously very happy that Copp is returning soon. He really likes the Copp-Lowry duo, but also hinted at perhaps separating them and shaking up the line-up to get more balance. My guess is that he might be looking at moving Copp up to 2C if the team doesn't improve their play soon, and moving Wheeler back to the wing, demoting Roslovic to the 3rd line.

Here's a preview of a forward line-up I think we might see fairly soon if the Jets' performance doesn't improve:

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Roslovic
Harkins-Shore-Appleton

When Little returns, I think we might see something like this...

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Roslovic
Harkins-Lowry-Appleton/Shore

My own preference for the top 6 in the short term might be...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Copp-Wheeler

 

[surixon]

Interesting interview by Maurice today. A few nuggets...

He's clearly not that happy with their play recently, and in particular doesn't like that they have turned into a team that just relies on the rush, rather than zone time and cycling. He feels that gives his D less stress than trying to trade rushes and defend more in their own zone. I think the current line-up is really oriented to rush, the top two lines have become focused on rush hockey instead of cycling more, and Lowry's line lacks good cycling players without Copp.

He clearly knows that his D is overmatched in terms of skill. He likes how hard they compete, but realizes their limitations. Praise for Poolman and his development. Even more praise for Kulikov, indicating he thought he was a big loss. I think we'll see Kulikov slide back into the 2nd pair when he's back.

Obviously very happy that Copp is returning soon. He really likes the Copp-Lowry duo, but also hinted at perhaps separating them and shaking up the line-up to get more balance. My guess is that he might be looking at moving Copp up to 2C if the team doesn't improve their play soon, and moving Wheeler back to the wing, demoting Roslovic to the 3rd line.

Here's a preview of a forward line-up I think we might see fairly soon if the Jets' performance doesn't improve:

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Roslovic
Harkins-Shore-Appleton

When Little returns, I think we might see something like this...

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Roslovic
Harkins-Lowry-Appleton/Shore

My own preference for the top 6 in the short term might be...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Copp-Wheeler

He needs to throw zone time out the window imo. Nothing wrong with cycling but the goal shouldn't ge to just keep the puck on the wall in their end.

I get that the defense is overmatched but imo instead of doubling down on being risk adverse we need to try to create more offense.

 

[DashingDane]

The Jets were a top-end team over the past two seasons. They reached the Conference Finals and ran into a better goalie in MAF (Vegas). Last season in the playoffs, they outplayed the eventual SC Champion for the most part of a 6-game series, but again ran into a hotter goalie in Binnington. If coaches were fired for not winning a Stanley Cup with a good roster, most of the outstanding coaches in NHL history would have been fired prematurely.

Since so many seem to like to reference 5v5 shot metrics as a measure of team performance, here is where the Jets stood in their last two play-off seasons (combined)...

5v5, Score/Venue Adjusted:

CF% 52.6 (#3 in the NHL)
xGF% 54.5 (#1 in the NHL)

Their PP ranked #6 in goals/60 minutes among all playoff teams.
Their PK ranked #7 in goals against / 60 minutes.

So, they were the best team in the league in expected goals share at 5v5, and in the top end in special teams combined.

I didn't know they had looked that good at 5v5. That's definitely encouraging but doesn't change the fact that Paul didn't deliver when he had the roster to do so.

Coaches shouldn't be fired for not winning the cup. They should be fired for having had time to build a top roster, implementing their systems and then still failing to win the cup. I also think Laviolette and Jon Cooper should have been fired by now... I'm struggling to find any coaches (in any sport) that suddenly started winning cups after 6 seasons with a team. Typically they seem to bring a cup within the first three seasons if they have the roster to do so and I believe the Jets had the roster to win. Paul has had more opportunities than most coaches get in a full career. I really like him as a person and communicator but would happily put money on him not bringing a cup to Winnipeg at this point. Hopefully I get to eat a bunch of crow as I don't see True North firing him. I also don't think there is anything controversial in wanting him gone considering the length he has coached the team and the results he has produced.

 

[Ducky10]

I like Andrew Copp, I think he’s a very good player. Him being our 2C makes me sad.

 

[LowLefty]

I like Andrew Copp, I think he’s a very good player. Him being our 2C makes me sad.

If at all, Copp as 2C would need to be temporary -
Little should be #2 but will likely need to work his way back into that role after being away as long as he has.
Wheeler may also stay in the role which leaves Little for #3
But I don't see any circumstances where Copp should be #2 - Let Wheels continue until Little is ready.

 

[scelaton]

If at all, Copp as 2C would need to be temporary -
Little should be #2 but will likely need to work his way back into that role after being away as long as he has.
Wheeler may also stay in the role which leaves Little for #3
But I don't see any circumstances where Copp should be #2 - Let Wheels continue until Little is ready.

I think Little could slip right into Roslovic's spot at 2RW, keeping Wheeler at 2C for now.

 

[LowLefty]

I think Little could slip right into Roslovic's spot at 2RW, keeping Wheeler at 2C for now.

I'm not sure Little will be able to handle 2nd line minutes on his return - the length of time he has been out along with the type of injury might require a slower introduction into the minutes he is used to seeing. But you never know - maybe he's ready

 

[LowLefty]

I didn't know they had looked that good at 5v5. That's definitely encouraging but doesn't change the fact that Paul didn't deliver when he had the roster to do so.

Coaches shouldn't be fired for not winning the cup. They should be fired for having had time to build a top roster, implementing their systems and then still failing to win the cup. I also think Laviolette and Jon Cooper should have been fired by now... I'm struggling to find any coaches (in any sport) that suddenly started winning cups after 6 seasons with a team. Typically they seem to bring a cup within the first three seasons if they have the roster to do so and I believe the Jets had the roster to win. Paul has had more opportunities than most coaches get in a full career. I really like him as a person and communicator but would happily put money on him not bringing a cup to Winnipeg at this point. Hopefully I get to eat a bunch of crow as I don't see True North firing him. I also don't think there is anything controversial in wanting him gone considering the length he has coached the team and the results he has produced.

IMO, young teams are a crap shoot for how well they can do in the early years along with how well they can handle the pressure of PO hockey.
I know it's been done before but I still think the key players needed more time to be a serious threat.

If you look back at some of the areas we've seen growth the last few years, it seems as though we my have set expectations a little high.
Ehlers game has taken another step to becoming a very good offensive threat - he's learning to shoot more and drag the puck less along with his improved D game.
Laine goes without saying - he's a much better player now that he was 2 years ago regardless of the stats - it was only a matter of time before his weaknesses were exposed (LY) and his effectiveness would decline. The scoring will come back because the hard stuff to learn is now behind him (to an extent).
Connor still needs work on his D game but his O game has shown improvement - he's a better player today.
Helle is still inconsistent - he shows us flashes of top tier goaltending and then he falls off a cliff for periods - it still appears as though you really don't know what you're going to get with this guy from game to game. That's his goal - consistency.

Those are a few examples of areas that are better now than they were a year or two ago - but now we have a new leak in the pail, namely our D and that has nothing to do with coaching (or at least very little unless you want to debate usage with our rookies and waver players - as if it would take us over the top).

IMO, when a team is still growing, learning and adapting, they shouldn't necessarily be expected to win it all - but expectations change based on your record and sometimes the original plan (draft / develop) is forgotten or ignored due to the hype, the possibilities, and the financial benefits that come from a deep playoff run and a team that might have been playing over their head.

I don't think Mo is being judged on not winning cups up to this point

 

[DashingDane]

IMO, young teams are a crap shoot for how well they can do in the early years along with how well they can handle the pressure of PO hockey.
I know it's been done before but I still think the key players needed more time to be a serious threat.

If you look back at some of the areas we've seen growth the last few years, it seems as though we my have set expectations a little high.
Ehlers game has taken another step to becoming a very good offensive threat - he's learning to shoot more and drag the puck less along with his improved D game.
Laine goes without saying - he's a much better player now that he was 2 years ago regardless of the stats - it was only a matter of time before his weaknesses were exposed (LY) and his effectiveness would decline. The scoring will come back because the hard stuff to learn is now behind him (to an extent).
Connor still needs work on his D game but his O game has shown improvement - he's a better player today.
Helle is still inconsistent - he shows us flashes of top tier goaltending and then he falls off a cliff for periods - it still appears as though you really don't know what you're going to get with this guy from game to game. That's his goal - consistency.

Those are a few examples of areas that are better now than they were a year or two ago - but now we have a new leak in the pail, namely our D and that has nothing to do with coaching (or at least very little unless you want to debate usage with our rookies and waver players - as if it would take us over the top).

IMO, when a team is still growing, learning and adapting, they shouldn't necessarily be expected to win it all - but expectations change based on your record and sometimes the original plan (draft / develop) is forgotten or ignored due to the hype, the possibilities, and the financial benefits that come from a deep playoff run and a team that might have been playing over their head.

I don't think Mo is being judged on not winning cups up to this point

If you don't think the team was ready to perform in the PO's these last two seasons I completely understand you support for Paul (I supported him for 4 seasons). I think a team playing Little and MP on the 4th line is a contender and should have certain expectations so we might just have differing opinions on how good the roster was.

I completely agree the young players have improved. Would have been bad if they didn't. A team will always be growing, learning and adapting. That's the nature of salary cap and can't be an excuse imo.

If your last sentence is true I'd want Chevy fired as well

 

[LowLefty]

If you don't think the team was ready to perform in the PO's these last two seasons I completely understand you support for Paul (I supported him for 4 seasons). I think a team playing Little and MP on the 4th line is a contender and should have certain expectations so we might just have differing opinions on how good the roster was.

I completely agree the young players have improved. Would have been bad if they didn't. A team will always be growing, learning and adapting. That's the nature of salary cap and can't be an excuse imo.

If your last sentence is true I'd want Chevy fired as well

I'd say they did preform in the playoffs one year - and then things slipped when a couple of our young key players also slipped - namely Laine and Ehlers. That along with whatever else was going on behind the scenes. I guess you could blame Mo for some of the behind the scenes stuff if you are willing to do so without really knowing what was going on - and I'm not saying you are.

But really all I was saying is that they were not cup contenders - I didn't say they couldn't perform in the playoffs. I believe your post was calling for Mo's job because he hasn't won a cup with this team. I don't think they were ready then or now.
Only one team wins and many others will play well but not well enough.

 

[surixon]

I'd say they did preform in the playoffs one year - and then things slipped when a couple of our young key players also slipped - namely Laine and Ehlers. That along with whatever else was going on behind the scenes. I guess you could blame Mo for some of the behind the scenes stuff if you are willing to do so without really knowing what was going on - and I'm not saying you are.

But really all I was saying is that they were not cup contenders - I didn't say they couldn't perform in the playoffs. I believe your post was calling for Mo's job because he hasn't won a cup with this team. I don't think they were ready then or now.
Only one team wins and many others will play well but not well enough.

Imo they most certainly had a roster that could win the cup the prior two seasons.

We are now at a point where a good many of our young core are now in their primes or just about to enter them and the team has taken a few steps back. Yes a lot of tha is due to our defense but we rub a very real risk of missing the Scheifele golden years on that steal of a deal.

This organization can't afford to take a bunch of steps back while we still have Wheeler performing at a solid level.

We can't just perpetually wait on our prospects to graduate. We need Chevy to sort out our defense down the stretch and this summer and we need our coach to get the most out of the current roster while our core is still strong.

While not all on Maurice the team has regressed two years in a row and I see very little in the way of signs that he will be able to really turn things around here and get this whole team performing at an elite level. For that I hope that the org is really evaluating everything and figuring out how they can start contending again and soon. Maurice has been here a lot longer then most coaches get.

 

[LowLefty]

Imo they most certainly had a roster that could win the cup the prior two seasons.

We are now at a point where a good many of our young core are now in their primes or just about to enter them and the team has taken a few steps back. Yes a lot of tha is due to our defense but we rub a very real risk of missing the Scheifele golden years on that steal of a deal.

This organization can't afford to take a bunch of steps back while we still have Wheeler performing at a solid level.

We can't just perpetually wait on our prospects to graduate. We need Chevy to sort out our defense down the stretch and this summer and we need our coach to get the most out of the current roster while our core is still strong.

While not all on Maurice the team has regressed two years in a row and I see very little in the way of signs that he will be able to really turn things around here and get this whole team performing at an elite level. For that I hope that the org is really evaluating everything and figuring out how they can start contending again and soon. Maurice has been here a lot longer then most coaches get.

Yes, Chevy needs to sort out the D
And yes, we need to expect the coach to get the most out of the team
Our young key players were under the age of 22 when we were making that last run - that is not prime time anyway you look at it. They were kids or slightly beyond but they were not in their prime or close to it.

IMO, our best players are yet to show us how good they can be - and Scheif should only get better over the next few years

Our D is now the problem - not coaching - IMO

 

[Guffman]

Interesting interview by Maurice today. A few nuggets...

He's clearly not that happy with their play recently, and in particular doesn't like that they have turned into a team that just relies on the rush, rather than zone time and cycling. He feels that gives his D less stress than trying to trade rushes and defend more in their own zone. I think the current line-up is really oriented to rush, the top two lines have become focused on rush hockey instead of cycling more, and Lowry's line lacks good cycling players without Copp.

He clearly knows that his D is overmatched in terms of skill. He likes how hard they compete, but realizes their limitations. Praise for Poolman and his development. Even more praise for Kulikov, indicating he thought he was a big loss. I think we'll see Kulikov slide back into the 2nd pair when he's back.

Obviously very happy that Copp is returning soon. He really likes the Copp-Lowry duo, but also hinted at perhaps separating them and shaking up the line-up to get more balance. My guess is that he might be looking at moving Copp up to 2C if the team doesn't improve their play soon, and moving Wheeler back to the wing, demoting Roslovic to the 3rd line.

Here's a preview of a forward line-up I think we might see fairly soon if the Jets' performance doesn't improve:

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Roslovic
Harkins-Shore-Appleton

When Little returns, I think we might see something like this...

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Roslovic
Harkins-Lowry-Appleton/Shore

My own preference for the top 6 in the short term might be...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Copp-Wheeler

I really doubt Copp gets elevated to 2C.

 

[JetsFan815]

Effect of Laine being on the ice on team xGF% and GF% (5v5)

year	xGF%	GF%
16-17	-0.95	+2.38
17-18	-1.30	+1.95
18-19	-2.08	-3.30
19-20	-0.11	+3.49

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All numbers are percentage points.

It is much more drastic than that as I believe you are comparing team xGF% vs Laine's xGF%. We should compare team xGF% with Laine off the ice vs Laine's xGF% to determine Laine's impact on these metrics as the former comparison has Laine's impact already baked into the team numbers.

In terms of league wide rankings, in almost all these season the Jets xGF% and CF% ranking is anywhere around 6, 8 or 10 places higher league wide with Laine off the ice. That is a huge confounding variable that needs to be taken into account when looking at Jets performance in these metrics and when deciding how much blame should lay at Maurice's feet for that as was bien argued in the post I was responding to.

His GF% impact is much more positive due to his elite shot, not denying that, only presenting these metrics as those were the ones that @surixon highlighted in his post as being on a decline the last few years of the Maurice era.

 

[GNP]

Moving Copp to a 2nd Line center would be a mistake. He clearly doesn't have the talent needed, and is best suited on a shut down checking line.

Either one of 2 things should happen when Little returns

1) Move Roslo down to a line with Perrault, and another player ?

OR

2) Move Little to the 2nd or 3rd line --depends what you do with Roslo ?

I may be very tempted to leave the 2nd line as is, and, and move Little down to center --Perrault, and another good player --giving us 3 good scoring lines.

 

[surixon]

It is much more drastic than that as I believe you are comparing team xGF% vs Laine's xGF%. We should compare team xGF% with Laine off the ice vs Laine's xGF% to determine Laine's impact on these metrics as the former comparison has Laine's impact already baked into the team numbers.

In terms of league wide rankings, in almost all these season the Jets xGF% and CF% ranking is anywhere around 6, 8 or 10 places higher league wide with Laine off the ice. That is a huge confounding variable that needs to be taken into account when looking at Jets performance in these metrics and when deciding how much blame should lay at Maurice's feet for that as was bien argued in the post I was responding to.

His GF% impact is much more positive due to his elite shot, not denying that, only presenting these metrics as those were the ones that @surixon highlighted in his post as being on a decline the last few years of the Maurice era.

One player shouldn't have a significant effect on the teams overall metrics. Also if you wanted to be truly representative you would have to go team by team and remove there worst XGF% anchor.

 

[surixon]

Yes, Chevy needs to sort out the D
And yes, we need to expect the coach to get the most out of the team
Our young key players were under the age of 22 when we were making that last run - that is not prime time anyway you look at it. They were kids or slightly beyond but they were not in their prime or close to it.

IMO, our best players are yet to show us how good they can be - and Scheif should only get better over the next few years

Our D is now the problem - not coaching - IMO

Coaching is most certainly part of the problem, this teams PK is garbage and has been most of Maurices time here. I think its silly to give the coach a free pass due to a weak roster, Maurice's team performed poorly last year with a darn good defense.

While sure Laine, Connor, Roslovic etc should get better it will be offset by older players on high value contracts getting worse. We have over 25 million tied up in players well into their 30's. Chevy fully went for it the last few years with his deadline acquisitions. I am sure he is fully aware that the clock is ticking on this combination of the core.

 

[LowLefty]

Coaching is most certainly part of the problem, this teams PK is garbage and has been most of Maurices time here. I think its silly to give the coach a free pass due to a weak roster, Maurice's team performed poorly last year with a darn good defense.

While sure Laine, Connor, Roslovic etc should get better it will be offset by older players on high value contracts getting worse. We have over 25 million tied up in players well into their 30's. Chevy fully went for it the last few years with his deadline acquisitions. I am sure he is fully aware that the clock is ticking on this combination of the core.

I say coaching isn't the problem - we can disagree on that rather than repeating our position back and forth.

Mo's team, if you want to lay it at Mo's feet, did play poorly last year - the part that's difficult to nail down is why? Was it bad coaching and if so, based on what? The PK?

Sure, Chevy went all in - and he'll keep going all in every year he gets the chance because that's money in the bank as far as potential playoff rounds played. As for the clock, it's always ticking - every team has a vet or two with a big contract - you roll the dice when the opportunity presents itself and you go as far as you can. No one is waiting around for the team to peak before making a run.

And it's no more silly to give the coach a pass as it is giving the players a pass or worse, expecting more than they can likely deliver and then blaming the coach for not getting more our of them than was realistic - and what's realistic could be debated forever. One thing for sure, there is always someone who feels we didn't go deep enough and then it's on the coach.

The coach is such an easy target when you don't win the cup.

 

[surixon]

I say coaching isn't the problem - we can disagree on that rather than repeating our position back and forth.

Mo's team, if you want to lay it at Mo's feet, did play poorly last year - the part that's difficult to nail down is why? Was it bad coaching and if so, based on what? The PK?

Sure, Chevy went all in - and he'll keep going all in every year he gets the chance because that's money in the bank as far as potential playoff rounds played. As for the clock, it's always ticking - every team has a vet or two with a big contract - you roll the dice when the opportunity presents itself and you go as far as you can. No one is waiting around for the team to peak before making a run.

And it's no more silly to give the coach a pass as it is giving the players a pass or worse, expecting more than they can likely deliver and then blaming the coach for not getting more our of them than was realistic - and what's realistic could be debated forever. One thing for sure, there is always someone who feels we didn't go deep enough and then it's on the coach.

The coach is such an easy target when you don't win the cup.

I would say when things are good everyone has a piece of it and when things are bad everyone has a piece of it as well. By no means do the players get a pass either. I am judging him by what the team does on the ice and whether it is improving or not.

Also everytime Maurice talks about his philosophy and on how he doesn't like our players playing a transition based offense with seam passing I continue to have reservations that we are going to be able to find synergy between how Maurice wants the game to be played and how our young players want to play the game.

Be honest even if you think he is a good coach do you think he will be the right fit for the style of players that our young core. I happen to think Maurice is a good coach but not a good fit for the players we have. I think his system is contrary for how our young players play instinctively. He'd fit rosters like Vegas, St. Louis and Minnesota a lot better imo.

 

[DashingDane]

I'd say they did preform in the playoffs one year - and then things slipped when a couple of our young key players also slipped - namely Laine and Ehlers. That along with whatever else was going on behind the scenes. I guess you could blame Mo for some of the behind the scenes stuff if you are willing to do so without really knowing what was going on - and I'm not saying you are.

But really all I was saying is that they were not cup contenders - I didn't say they couldn't perform in the playoffs. I believe your post was calling for Mo's job because he hasn't won a cup with this team. I don't think they were ready then or now.
Only one team wins and many others will play well but not well enough.

Fair enough. I guess we just disagree about them being contenders or not. I won't get into who was underperformed besides I think it was more than two players. In terms of blaming Mo and calling for his head... I actually blame everybody but it's a lot easier and cheaper to switch a coach than it is to trade away half a team. If you read my answer to Whileee you will know it wasn't just because of the cup but because he had ample time to develop, implement his style and still didn't get results. I actually think this core will win a cup at some point. I just don't think it happens with Mo. Doesn't mean Mo is solely to blame for the teams play but he is certainly the one (along with Chevy) that should be held accountable imo. That's kind of the nature of being a coach.

 

[ecolad]

I would say when things are good everyone has a piece of it and when things are bad everyone has a piece of it as well. By no means do the players get a pass either. I am judging him by what the team does on the ice and whether it is improving or not.

Also everytime Maurice talks about his philosophy and on how he doesn't like our players playing a transition based offense with seam passing I continue to have reservations that we are going to be able to find synergy between how Maurice wants the game to be played and how our young players want to play the game.

Be honest even if you think he is a good coach do you think he will be the right fit for the style of players that our young core. I happen to think Maurice is a good coach but not a good fit for the players we have. I think his system is contrary for how our young players play instinctively. He'd fit rosters like Vegas, St. Louis and Minnesota a lot better imo.

I share your basic perspective on this Surixon. If I were to try distill my concern about Maurice into one simple thought it would be this-- he is trying to run this team based upon what he believes is needed to make a winner, NOT based upon what he actually has.He is very much focussed on filling "roles" in his stylized,pre-conceived notion of what "Jet`s hockey" should look like.

 

[JetsFan815]

One player shouldn't have a significant effect on the teams overall metrics. Also if you wanted to be truly representative you would have to go team by team and remove there worst XGF% anchor.

Except as the data above shows that their is pretty decent sized discrepancy between the Jets unit that's on the ice when he is and when he's not. I don't think removing other teams with their worst xGF players is helpful. Very few players with metrics that are so rough play the number of minutes that Laine does, most of those guys with a couple of exceptions play limited minutes in 4th line type roles whereas he plays 2nd line minutes, those bad metrics are going to be a drag on the team's metrics when the player will be on ice for roughly 1/3rd or more of the total 5 on 5 mins every game. The Jets are somewhat unique in that sense. If you sort by Rel xGF% from last season ascending, Laine is 35th from the bottom and there are not a whole lot of top-6 players with the exception of Drouin around that range for a very long time Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Maurice is not absolved from the team's 5on5 metrics lagging but one has to acknowledge the fact that Maurice is (was?) working with a pretty big handicap that most other coaches don't when coaching this team and that context needs to be taken into account when judging him based on those metrics.

 

[Gm0ney]

The Jets were a top-end team over the past two seasons. They reached the Conference Finals and ran into a better goalie in MAF (Vegas). Last season in the playoffs, they outplayed the eventual SC Champion for the most part of a 6-game series, but again ran into a hotter goalie in Binnington. If coaches were fired for not winning a Stanley Cup with a good roster, most of the outstanding coaches in NHL history would have been fired prematurely.

Since so many seem to like to reference 5v5 shot metrics as a measure of team performance, here is where the Jets stood in their last two play-off seasons (combined)...

5v5, Score/Venue Adjusted:

CF% 52.6 (#3 in the NHL)
xGF% 54.5 (#1 in the NHL)

Their PP ranked #6 in goals/60 minutes among all playoff teams.
Their PK ranked #7 in goals against / 60 minutes.

So, they were the best team in the league in expected goals share at 5v5, and in the top end in special teams combined.

Lumping the 6 games of last season's playoffs in with the 17 games of the year before sure makes things look a bit rosier!

But the Jets were 9th out of 16 in CF% (5v5 SVA) in the 2018-19 postseason, dropping from a 53.36 the previous year to a 50.17 (-3.19); and 5th in xGF% going from 54.99 to 52.91 (-2.08).

And I think you're looking at that PK GA/60 ranking upside down...the Jets' 9.31 GA/60 over both playoffs is the 15th best (out of 21), not 7th. Well, it's tied for 7th-worst, but I don't think that's what you meant...

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I understand both takes on whether Maurice should stay or go. Tip of the hat to Surixon for explaining his gripes with the coach in such a well thought-out manner.

My take is that he should stay, as long as the team looks "right" (even if that doesn't mean winning games a lot of the time) this year. Whereas if we slip into the kind of funk we were in last year, it's time to consider other options.

Two years ago the WCF run was solid, and I was certainly happy with Maurice that year.

Last year sucked. I'm of the opinion that "something happened in the room" (tm). The team just looked lack-luster for most of the year. You could maybe blame Maurice for letting that happen or not fixing it sooner, but coaches don't have a magic wand. But I look at it as a positive that the team appears back on track this year in terms of dedication and effort. Maurice appears to have pulled through whatever our troubles were with a handle on the room. Seems to me he was part of the solution, not the problem.

This year, I like how the team is playing most nights. But it's obvious our D is holding us back - even with many playing decently well above their pay grade. I consider our current problems a roster issue and not a coaching issue. I also credit Maurce that our young guys that have developed under his tenure are looking great.

Last thing that's been on my mind is the "Jets should play high event hockey" argument. It's tough to know whether that's true or not. But it seems to me the opposite theory also seems plausible - that our super talented team doesn't need to be coached to focus on offense (they do that naturally already), but rather coaching defense to add to our already potent offense is the best way to maximize this team.

That's all very hand-wavy and non-statistical, but just how I see it.