Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Lebanezer]

I'm a bit wary of drafting Jiricek at 14 given his injury history, but the Sharks have no D prospects. So while he wouldn't be my first choice at 14, I can understand why they would do that. Looking at Dom's draft pick valuation chart, we could try to move way up in the 1st round with 14, 33 and 42, the middle of the first round after 14 with 33 and 42, or the back of the first round with 33 and 85. Any thoughts?

 

[coooldude]

I'm a bit wary of drafting Jiricek at 14 given his injury history, but the Sharks have no D prospects. So while he wouldn't be my first choice at 14, I can understand why they would do that. Looking at Dom's draft pick valuation chart, we could try to move way up in the 1st round with 14, 33 and 42, the middle of the first round after 14 with 33 and 42, or the back of the first round with 33 and 85. Any thoughts?
View attachment 870654

Given there's this big flat tier seemingly from 20-45 or so, I wonder if we don't keep our picks and try to keep picking whoever of the long list of D falls to those picks.

Like, Jiricek could be a reach at 14, but what if we have a chance to draft three of:
Jiricek/EJ Emery/Stolberg/Elick
Badinka/Brunicke
Hutson, Wallenius, Mews/Freij

That's 10 D men that could get picked between 14 and 40, actually more likely between 20 and 40. I'd probably rather 3 cracks at it than just one, unless that one is Buium. Parekh and Yakemchuk, I'm not even sure are worth giving up two extra high 2nd picks for. Maybe.

I still think it's more likely that we take MBN/Sennecke/Chernyshov at 14, but taking 2 swings at a high 2nd round D man seems apt after that. Trade up option is intriguing but who knows if realistic.

 

[Eklund72]

Eklund-Celebrini-Nygard
Musty-Smith-Zetterlund

1st line is perfect for top line match ups.
2nd line all offense

With our 2025 1st and Vegas 1st draft defenseman.

 

[LilLeeroy]

The main difference is that I don’t think Jiricek has true top-pairing upside, so he has a more limited projection than the top six defensemen (who all definitely have top pairing upside, though some are riskier than others).

Jiricek is very much a “jack of all trades” type of player. Above average at everything, but no outstanding skill. Compared to his brother David, who has an elite shot, I just don’t see any particular aspect to Adam that I can project to a top pairing level. But if he can stay healthy he’s got a really good shot at playing in the NHL, and even even if he doesn’t hit his middle-pairing upside, bottom pairing two-way RHD’s with 6’2” frames are valuable.


He’s got an excellent shot, which gives him good scoring potential. To me, MBN seems like everything we love about Zetterlund but dialed up to 20. Bigger, faster, better at everything.

David was also one of the oldest players in his draft year while Adam is one of the youngest. Development also isn't linear; I remember a time when you talked about how Cale Makar and Mario Ferraro should be regarded as similar prospects.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Only 6 more weeks of drafterbating! I will also be at the draft and would be fun to get a group together.

I personally would be shocked to see anyone trade down from 6-10. I think the only chance MTL trades down from 5 is if Lindstrom is injured enough to scare everyone.

Maybe BUF trades down from 11, if so -- that's our best shot at Yakemchuk. Buium will likely be gone by then. Parekh, who knows.

My prioritized list at 14:
1. Buium if available (pretty much no chance)
2. Yakemchuk (unlikely - BUF, MIN may take him)
3. MBN
4. Sennecke (probably gone by then if the "riser" smoke continues)
5. Chernyshov
6. Trade down with someone who wants Eiserman, try to grab EJ Emery in the high teens or mid-twenties
7. Reach for Emery anyway
8. Eiserman

If we go Eiserman, I'll be fine with it because maybe he can round out his game and his one trick is really good (and probably better than Halttunen)... but I get serious Dany Heatley vibes from him without the 6'4" part.

It will be great to connect at the draft! Pre and post draft party in Vegas seems appropriate.

 

[Juxtaposer]

David was also one of the oldest players in his draft year while Adam is one of the youngest. Development also isn't linear; I remember a time when you talked about how Cale Makar and Mario Ferraro should be regarded as similar prospects.

Find me a post where I said that. I checked my post history and found a couple saying that Ferraro was underrated and that he wasn’t “miles behind” Makar. Obviously I was wrong about that, but if Ferraro had kept progressing as expected from what he showed in his rookie season when I made the posts, he’d be a #2 defenseman right now. It still wouldn’t be a debate between them, but what I said at the time would hold up. Obviously, development is not linear, and I don’t appreciate you suggesting I think it is.

Besides, Makar is a ridiculous example to use. Yes, some players develop exponentially after being drafted. But the vast majority do not. If you want to place a bet with me on whether Adam Jiricek develops an elite skill post-draft and becomes a top pairing defenseman, I’m more than happy to do so.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm a bit wary of drafting Jiricek at 14 given his injury history, but the Sharks have no D prospects. So while he wouldn't be my first choice at 14, I can understand why they would do that. Looking at Dom's draft pick valuation chart, we could try to move way up in the 1st round with 14, 33 and 42, the middle of the first round after 14 with 33 and 42, or the back of the first round with 33 and 85. Any thoughts?
View attachment 870654

For me, when I try to nail down what it is I'd like for them to do with this pick, it depends on whether they see any of the top six defenseman they can reasonably move up to get as a #1 d-man down the line. I get that they all have that potential to one degree or another, I just don't know what those odds really are. I have more confidence in the defensemen at the top of next year's draft reaching that level over these guys (including Buium). If they have a guy they feel can be the #1, they should move up to get them. If they don't, BPA at 14 or trade back somewhere between 15 and 19 if they can get a 2nd out of it. We still need wingers, defensemen, and goalies and the more picks the better in the top two rounds. We're still too shallow on prospects to really make headway on acquiring pieces to fill out our lineup long term at all the positions we need to succeed.

 

[Jargon]

I don’t hate the idea of a smooth skating potentially #3-4 defenseman in Jiricek. The fact is we need as many good defensive prospects as possible, right now we’re really struggling in that area.

That said Brandsegg of House Nygard seems really fun. It’s so tricky to figure this pick out because there are SO many variations in this draft of a. who may fall to us and b. whether Grier can manage to trade up, and if so, how high, and then who does he pick (I imagine one of the top D)?

It makes the draft certainly more exciting.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I’m also curious, if anyone can give a TLDR. I’ve seen comments that sorta vaguely allude to some holes in his game, but a quick lap around the Google pool and it seems he’s the consensus “best scorer” in the draft and some light criticism of his defensive game (which to me feels like a super common concern for so many offensively gifted prospects). Is there something specific to his game or this season that is causing him to drop so severely?

As everyone knows there's always a question about how a player's game translate from minor leagues/NCAAs to the NHL. Eiserman has great goal scoring instincts but the question is always is his game reproducable at the next level.

Look at Laine he was a much more projectable goal scorer yet he's not developed into what they thought he'd be and his innate talent is much greater than Eiserman.

The other aspect is Eiserman's mentality, which hasn't exactly been, been sparkling when it comes to developping an all-around game.

So the real issue does his game translate or would a team be drafting a guy who scores 30 but disappears in the ctunch moments and will his scoring outwwigh his two-way play.

 

[Lebanezer]

 

[LilLeeroy]

Find me a post where I said that. I checked my post history and found a couple saying that Ferraro was underrated and that he wasn’t “miles behind” Makar. Obviously I was wrong about that, but if Ferraro had kept progressing as expected from what he showed in his rookie season when I made the posts, he’d be a #2 defenseman right now. It still wouldn’t be a debate between them, but what I said at the time would hold up. Obviously, development is not linear, and I don’t appreciate you suggesting I think it is.

Besides, Makar is a ridiculous example to use. Yes, some players develop exponentially after being drafted. But the vast majority do not. If you want to place a bet with me on whether Adam Jiricek develops an elite skill post-draft and becomes a top pairing defenseman, I’m more than happy to do so.

Think it was from when Makar and Ferraro were sophomores at UMass

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

This Brandsegg-Nygård clip is making the rounds on social media.

I’m sold. Take him unless Zeev or someone else super surprising is there.

He would compliment Smith super good, ala Leonard.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

This Brandsegg-Nygård clip is making the rounds on social media.

Pure thievery, I like it!

 

[Jargon]

Pure thievery, I like it!

He’s definitely the Grieriest of Grier players. Having him and Celebrini on two different lines would be pretty fantastic and I think he’d really complement Smith.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Think it was from when Makar and Ferraro were sophomores at UMass

Again, like I said I searched my post history and found a couple posts from 2019 where I spoke on both. Mostly, it was me leveraging how they both looked at UMass to say that Ferraro was a legit good prospect with top-4 upside, because he looked almost as good as a star top-5 prospect at the same age. All those posts were on the main boards defending Ferraro from people who said he wasn’t a real prospect. But absolutely nothing saying they were equivalent or that Ferraro was a future star or that Makar was bad or anything like that.

 

[Munnyro]

For what its worth, Nygard will be the highest Norwegian draft pick ever.

 

[OversKy]

I think Helenius and Iggy will be gone. If Helenius drops, I'd prefer MBN personally. They both have their fanboys, but Helenius sounds a lot like Eklund and MBN brings a bit more sandpaper (but might also still be able to play C).

Jiricek I don't know enough how to evaluate his knee injuries but that scares me. I think he'll drop into the 20's and be someone else's Musty (or never pan out).

Solberg I know nothing about. Hopefully the scouts do!

On #33/42, I am far less well read on those guys, but from the little I know or have read about from others, I'd put them in this order for the Sharks team Grier is trying to build:
Elick/Badinka/Brunicke, Hutson, Wallenius, Mews/Freij


He scored a lot of points... I don't think I want to build a team around him, and players like him are often available in FA or at the TDL (as Heatley was, many times)

Heatley was a different skillset but similar to Eichel type player to me. Elite but would turn off or not give much if he felt demoralized. Maybe a bit more selfish and if Eichel has any leadership qualities that was not for Heatley. Of course this isn't mentioning the off ice tragedy...

 

[LilLeeroy]

Again, like I said I searched my post history and found a couple posts from 2019 where I spoke on both. Mostly, it was me leveraging how they both looked at UMass to say that Ferraro was a legit good prospect with top-4 upside, because he looked almost as good as a star top-5 prospect at the same age. All those posts were on the main boards defending Ferraro from people who said he wasn’t a real prospect. But absolutely nothing saying they were equivalent or that Ferraro was a future star or that Makar was bad or anything like that.

So, at one point yourself and others thought Ferraro looked almost as good as Makar, but Makar took massive steps in his D+2 year. If I had a time machine and went back to their freshman years and told you how the two ended up, you wouldn't be slightly surprised?

Jiricek is basically a July birthday that looked really good in the U18s in his D-1 year. He could easily surprise you.

 

[Juxtaposer]

So, at one point yourself and others thought Ferraro looked almost as good as Makar, but Makar took massive steps in his D+2 year. If I had a time machine and went back to their freshman years and told you how the two ended up, you wouldn't be slightly surprised?

Jiricek is basically a July birthday that looked really good in the U18s in his D-1 year. He could easily surprise you.

Thinking they look as good in the NCAA as freshman is a far cry from thinking they projected as equals in the NHL. Mario was an extremely good collegiate player and there’s a reason he’s never spent a game in the AHL. I would probably be a little surprised that Makar ended up the best defenseman in the world and Ferraro is a borderline AHLer, sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised that they weren’t equals.

As I mentioned, it’s not very often that 18 year olds develop elite attributes. Usually, 18 year olds have an elite aspect and as they get older they round out their games. It’s certainly not impossible, I just don’t think it’s very likely and shouldn’t be considered a probable outcome. I did really like him at last year’s U18 and the Hlinka, I’m just worried about the reports that his league play this fall before he got injured was very bad.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

Falk Defense, just score 1 more goal than the other team and you win. Isn't the point of hockey is to win games? jk/

 

[Grinner]

This Brandsegg-Nygård clip is making the rounds on social media.

I can practically smell the lutefisk wafting from the clubhouse

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I can practically smell the lutefisk wafting from the clubhouse

At least lutefisk smells slightly better than surströmming.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I want the Norwegian at 14..

 

[Hodge]

I'm a bit wary of drafting Jiricek at 14 given his injury history, but the Sharks have no D prospects. So while he wouldn't be my first choice at 14, I can understand why they would do that. Looking at Dom's draft pick valuation chart, we could try to move way up in the 1st round with 14, 33 and 42, the middle of the first round after 14 with 33 and 42, or the back of the first round with 33 and 85. Any thoughts?
View attachment 870654

So according to the chart we should be able to trade into the top 5 with ease.

Seems like a no brainer as long as some other team (realistically Columbus or Montreal) agrees to it?

 

[Lebanezer]

So according to the chart we should be able to trade into the top 5 with ease.

Seems like a no brainer as long as some other team (realistically Columbus or Montreal) agrees to it?

I imagine 14, and 33 or 42 would be enticing to a lot of teams in the top 10. 14 and 33 is almost worth #5 alone. Two picks in the top 5 or 6 would be pretty nice.