Top 4 d-men in minutes for the top 8:
DAL- Heisknanen (3), Lindell (74), Harley (18), Tanev
COL- Makar (4), Toews (108), Manson, Walker (Girard)
EDM- Bouchard (10), Ekholm (102), Nurse (7), Ceci
VAN- Hughes (7), Hronek (53), Zadorov, Cole (Myers, Soucey)
BOS- McaVoy (15), Lindholm (6), Carlo (37), Lohrie
CAR- Slavin (126), Burns (20), Skjei (28), Orlov (55) (Pesce- 66)
FLA- Ekblad (1), Montour (55), Forsling, Mikkola
Kind of crazy. Though the historical data may speak against, still intrigued by trading up. However, it is interesting to see that good teams aren't so reliant on top picks for d-men, but drafting your number one (with a top 15 pick) is just about imperative, unless your team resides in the Southeast (apparently). Maybe we get our guy next year, maybe we get them at 14 or a trade-up.
Aside from Dallas, each team acquired their #2 d-man, and only three (Dallas, Boston, Edm) drafted their #3.
For Vegas, I appreciate they have a bizarre model (though I think it makes sense when going for it- pay prospects/late 1sts for elite talent), but they only drafted their 6th d-man.
In summary, most important thing to do with 14 is hit on a top half of the lineup player. Not sure on the percentages, but 70% chance top 6 winger is better than a 50% top 4 d-man.
Thanks for gathering all these numbers… in part because it really backs up my philosophy for building a Stanley Cup-winning defense.
To summarize, other than your #1D, I think you can build the rest of a good defense corps outside of the first round, whether that’s by picks in the 2nd round and later, via trade, or as UFAs. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t nice to draft all your top-4 guys (for loyalty/cost control/culture reasons), but outside of a true #1D everything else can be acquired if you are creative and smart.
Colorado is the perfect example of this:
#1 Makar (4th overall pick)
#2 Toews (acquired via trade at a reasonable cost)
#3 Girard (3rd round pick)
#4 Manson (TDL, re-signed)
#5 Walker (TDL)
The main reason I’m interested in trading up is that, rather uniquely, I think all six of the D projected in the top-10 have legitimate #1D upside. I don’t think that many if any will hit it, but it’s a good shot to take. And if that D did pan out, it would put less pressure on the 2025 pick to be the make-or-break point of our rebuild.
I also have some questions regarding the defense position as a whole over the past 5 years. The first among them is that I question if kids are really prioritizing two-way defense anymore. We know the NHL is much higher scoring than it was ten years ago, and a big part of that is the reemergence of elite scoring talent that the NHL was lacking between Crosby and McDavid. Between those two generational guys being drafted, we had scoring titles won by mediocrity, and the best defensemen were guys like Keith, Chara, Doughty, Pronger, Niedermayer, Lidstrom, etc. The best forwards outside of Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin were basically two-way studs like Kopitar, Bergeron, Toews, Hossa, Kesler, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc.
Now, the stars of the NHL are exciting, fast-paced offensive players. McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, Marner, Petterson, Q. Hughes, Makar, Mackinnon, J. Hughes, Pastrnak, etc. It’s been a really long time since there was a real stud two-way defenseman at the top of any draft.
I just wonder if kids are being influenced towards this style of play and not really prioritizing learning defense as much, and I’ll be curious how this affects new-age SC builds.