Prospect Info: Alexander Holtz (Part II)

[Oneiro]

Beyond anything he's actually accomplished, or hasn't for that matter...
Going on D+4 after being selected #7 overall and only having played in 28 NHL is the reddest of red flags.

This is a big year...a top 10 pick that can't break into the NHL 4 years after being drafted probably isn't going to.

Now back to fishing.

Can't say I disagree. And I'm not really a fan of his game. If the right trade is available for an established player at the right cap hit, I don't think I hesitate at all. (And from day one, I've thought Foote impressed more, despite even worse speed.)

I would spend the first quarter or half of the year giving him a lot of rope, maybe some PP time simply because the team needs that shot. If the wins aren't coming, I think that changes things a bit and then he'd likely be a part of the problem anyway. But if we're still a top team, which is not a given, I'd run the experiments while you can.

 

[Clam Jensen]

you will have a hard time convincing me that the single most important defining characteristic of NBA wins and losses is anything other than the refs.

Are you implying Tim Donaghy wasn’t an honest and truthful man?

 

[My3Sons]

Are you implying Tim Donaghy wasn’t an honest and truthful man?

My kids all love the NBA. I take them to a bunch of games each season. As a very casual NBA fan it's remarkable to me how bad the reffing is when you are there. Worse, it really looks like the small name players get fouled anytime they drive to the net and there is any contact and they fall down. Watch Lillard or Harden in a game closely. Chris Paul as well. In contrast, the bigger you are the less likely you are to get a foul called unless your name is LeBron. I have heard the announcers actually talk about defending Zion Williamson by "building a wall". I've seen plays that would be holding in the NFL not result in foul calls where he is trying to drive to the basket. It's awful. A good example is Draymond Green who should foul out of just about every game I watch him play. If he was on a bad team he'd be piling up fouls but they don't want him detracting from Curry and Thompson (although with the aging of that core it may change). Take a look at the foul shot disparities. My oldest showed me that at one point the Lakers down the stretch had far and away the biggest free throw disparity in the league. Sorry, they aren't so skilled and aggressive they would be getting that many free throws. It's bordering on wrestling and how this doesn't get discussed by the sports talking heads is beyond me. It makes game management seem better in contrast which is how bad the NBA has become. The only thing close is pass interference in the NFL.

 

[Zippy316]

There should be absolutely no reason that Holtz doesn’t make the team and contribute next year.

He’s no longer playing with other developing forwards for the most part. There’s no longer going to be guys like Sharangovich, Tatar, and Wood who are poor linemates for a smaller skilled player who isn’t overly physical and needs to round out his game.

The team going into next year is going to be a much more well rounded team. He’s going to be playing with good players or players that can make the game easy on him. Most of the young players at this point have established themselves and their role. Hell even if he ends up with say Boqvist-McLeod on the fourth line, that’s a situation where I can still see him succeeding.

 

[TF1970]

ideal spot for holtz after the Toffoli addition (assuming he is in the picture come season commencement) IMO might be alongside Haula/Palat. Two responsible and gritty veterans who do quite a bit of dirty work but also have some offensive skill.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I think he’s trade bait now.

Beyond anything he's actually accomplished, or hasn't for that matter...
Going on D+4 after being selected #7 overall and only having played in 28 NHL is the reddest of red flags.

This is a big year...a top 10 pick that can't break into the NHL 4 years after being drafted probably isn't going to.

Now back to fishing.

No it isn’t. Lots of non-superstar forwards don’t break into the league until 24-25. Nyquist, Tatar, Coleman, even our very own Tyler Toffolli. Development isn’t a straight line.

 

[Triumph]

I think he’s trade bait now.

No it isn’t. Lots of non-superstar forwards don’t break into the league until 24-25. Nyquist, Tatar, Coleman, even our very own Tyler Toffolli. Development isn’t a straight line.

Nobody there was a 7th overall pick. Nyquist and Tatar were deliberately sat on by an out of touch Detroit front office. Development is not a straight line, but when top 10 picks aren't on the NHL roster by D+4, they usually don't make it there at all.

 

[Forge]

Talk to Detroit about him. Maybe they'd have interest in putting him back with Raymond

 

[Omar Little]

Talk to Detroit about him. Maybe they'd have interest in putting him back with Raymond

For Rasmussen

 

[Emperoreddy]

Hard to avoid the feeling we are going to try cashing out on him

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

With Toffoli signed for only 1 more year it really doesn't make any sense to trade Holtz. I don't want another 2nd round pick in this year's draft or some underwhelming return for Holtz. Just let the kid play. Injuries will happen and if he plays some games in Utica to start the year it's not the worst thing. It's gonna be harder for him to get minutes with Toffoli but I wouldn't trade him for scraps.

 

[Lou Bloom]

With Toffoli signed for only 1 more year it really doesn't make any sense to trade Holtz. I don't want another 2nd round pick in this year's draft or some underwhelming return for Holtz. Just let the kid play. Injuries will happen and if he plays some games in Utica to start the year it's not the worst thing. It's gonna be harder for him to get minutes with Toffoli but I wouldn't trade him for scraps.

The Devils also have Clarke, Foote, Thompson and Gristyuk as near ready NHL winger prospects. Holtz's best attribute (his scoring ability) is something the Devils' currently have an abundance of in the organization, if they can get a player or pick of similar value that can add a different element to the team (200 ft play, forechecking, physicality, etc...) I don't see how that wouldn't be a good move to try and add a bit of diversity of talent to the system.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

The Devils also have Clarke, Foote, Thompson and Gristyuk as near ready NHL winger prospects. Holtz's best attribute (his scoring ability) is something the Devils' currently have an abundance of in the organization, if they can get a player or pick of similar value that can add a different element to the team (200 ft play, forechecking, physicality, etc...) I don't see how that wouldn't be a good move to try and add a bit of diversity of talent to the system.

Clarke and Gritsyuk are the only 2 of theose 4 with potential top 6 upside. Foote might be able to be a 3rd/4th liner. He still has that heavy shot and brings size. Sometimes I forget that he is in the system. It's hard to say what Tyce can be. He seems to have a decent skill set with a good motor and some pep to his game. He needs to have a big year for Utica first.

Clarke I have some high hopes for. He had a great year in the AHL this past year. He looked good the 3 games I saw Utica live this year. He has a good shot and it's one of his best attributes.

Gritsyuk is 2 years away from coming over from the KHL but the other 3 will be beating for a roster spot/call up this year. Thompson I believe is on a 1 way deal this year. I remember he had some weird thing in his contract where the 2nd year of his 2 year deal is a 1 way contract in the NHL. I'm not exactly sure why Fitzgerald signed off on that. I guess they thought by the 2nd year he would be a NHLer for sure. Was kind of a dumb move considering Tyce was a 4th round pick and never really a blue chip prospect.

 

[NJDevils17]

I’m fine waiting on Holtz to see what we have or don’t but I’m feeling confident he’s gone this week.

 

[Devil X]

I’m fine waiting on Holtz to see what we have or don’t but I’m feeling confident he’s gone this week.

I'm not sure you trade away possible scoring depth. The goal this year is not just the playoffs but to go deep. I'm not sure its a smart idea to move a cost controlled forward who could very well play in your top 6.

 

[theoptimist]

RIP H20

 

[Triumph]

The Devils also have Clarke, Foote, Thompson and Gristyuk as near ready NHL winger prospects. Holtz's best attribute (his scoring ability) is something the Devils' currently have an abundance of in the organization, if they can get a player or pick of similar value that can add a different element to the team (200 ft play, forechecking, physicality, etc...) I don't see how that wouldn't be a good move to try and add a bit of diversity of talent to the system.

Clarke has had issues staying healthy. Foote is nowhere close to being in the same realm as Holtz - Foote has 42 goals in 140 AHL games, Holtz has 34 goals in 87 games. Foote is unlikely to be a scorer of significance at the NHL level. Thompson let's not even talk about, he didn't score an AHL goal the last 3 months of the season. And Gritsyuk, fine, but he won't be here for another 2 years. The Devils really do not have an abundance of scoring wingers in their system.

If Holtz asks for a trade, I hope they find one for him, but otherwise, the Devils should not trade Holtz. Scoring winger is not an organizational strength.

 

[Lou is God]

Clarke has had issues staying healthy. Foote is nowhere close to being in the same realm as Holtz - Foote has 42 goals in 140 AHL games, Holtz has 34 goals in 87 games. Foote is unlikely to be a scorer of significance at the NHL level. Thompson let's not even talk about, he didn't score an AHL goal the last 3 months of the season. And Gritsyuk, fine, but he won't be here for another 2 years. The Devils really do not have an abundance of scoring wingers in their system.

If Holtz asks for a trade, I hope they find one for him, but otherwise, the Devils should not trade Holtz. Scoring winger is not an organizational strength.

I was high on Thompson last year, I know injuries have messed with his growth but that streak of going 35+ games without a goal in the AHL is hard to believe.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Without another move, there is still a spot for Holtz to take.

Bratt-Hughes-Toffoli
Timo-Nico-Mercer
Palat-Haula-Holtz
Foote-McLeod-Bastian

That is certainly enough skill to get an honest chance.

 

[TF1970]

i keep wondering if with holtz/clarke, does one of them make the other expendable in terms of a potential trade?

 

[devilsblood]

With Toffoli signed for only 1 more year it really doesn't make any sense to trade Holtz. I don't want another 2nd round pick in this year's draft or some underwhelming return for Holtz. Just let the kid play. Injuries will happen and if he plays some games in Utica to start the year it's not the worst thing. It's gonna be harder for him to get minutes with Toffoli but I wouldn't trade him for scraps.

I do agree about the Toffoli angle, and being able to look beyond this season when the spot may open back up....

I'm not sure you trade away possible scoring depth. The goal this year is not just the playoffs but to go deep. I'm not sure its a smart idea to move a cost controlled forward who could very well play in your top 6.

....but if the team doesn't think he can keep up with the pace of the league, let alone the pace we play at, then get what you can now. I'd be OK with a high 2nd round pick in what is supposed to be a very good draft.


And if Meier is indeed the long term option as the PP shooter, then that cuts Holtz's goal scoring upside on this team rather considerably.

 

[devilsblood]

Without another move, there is still a spot for Holtz to take.

Bratt-Hughes-Toffoli
Timo-Nico-Mercer
Palat-Haula-Holtz
Foote-McLeod-Bastian

That is certainly enough skill to get an honest chance.

I very much dislike the narrative that if Holtz is not with high end players, then he is not being giving a chance.

Especially since he was an absolute drag on the good players he was with last season.

He needs to prove he can play, and that's on him, not his linemates. But yeah, there is a clear spot there for him if he does prove it.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Clarke has had issues staying healthy. Foote is nowhere close to being in the same realm as Holtz - Foote has 42 goals in 140 AHL games, Holtz has 34 goals in 87 games. Foote is unlikely to be a scorer of significance at the NHL level. Thompson let's not even talk about, he didn't score an AHL goal the last 3 months of the season. And Gritsyuk, fine, but he won't be here for another 2 years. The Devils really do not have an abundance of scoring wingers in their system.

If Holtz asks for a trade, I hope they find one for him, but otherwise, the Devils should not trade Holtz. Scoring winger is not an organizational strength.

The Devils’ put up the 4th most goals in the NHL last year and are adding Tyler Toffoli to the team. We’re talking about a possible 3rd line winger role that might be used more as a defensive role anyway. Stashing Holtz on the Utica again and tanking his value for more scoring depth is just a bad use of value. You could easily acquire a player to play on the bottom 6 for fairly cheap.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I very much dislike the narrative that if Holtz is not with high end players, then he is not being giving a chance.

Especially since he was an absolute drag on the good players he was with last season.

He needs to prove he can play, and that's on him, not his linemates. But yeah, there is a clear spot there for him if he does prove it.

not every prospect is the same. Not every prospect is Dawson Mercer or Zach Parise who start out on the 4th line and work their way up the lineup.

Holtz has a very specific skillset and he needs to be put in the right scenarios to succeed. Yes, he thus far has not been good enough, but he has also not been done any favors. If you are expecting him to "work his way up the lineup" by playing him on the 4th line with Mike McLeod nightly, then you might as well just trade him now because that is not what his skillset is best suited for.

I am not saying to hand him anything. Just for him to be put in better positions to succeed.

 

[Triumph]

The Devils’ put up the 4th most goals in the NHL last year and are adding Tyler Toffoli to the team. We’re talking about a possible 3rd line winger role that might be used more as a defensive role anyway. Stashing Holtz on the Utica again and tanking his value for more scoring depth is just a bad use of value. You could easily acquire a player to play on the bottom 6 for fairly cheap.

I don't care about maximizing the value of every player, that isn't the goal. The Devils' window is open now. They have no immediate NHL roster needs but they don't have infinite resources. Injuries will happen. Maybe Holtz can win a spot even without injuries. Again, if he wants out, fine, I wouldn't blame him. He still represents a huge need on this team and Toffoli may walk next offseason.