Alex Ovechkin - UFA this summer - 11M$ AAV for 3 years. Do you sign him, yes or no?

[Future GOAT]

Nah, that's a pass.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Not exactly equivalent but they're pretty close

Would I rather have Ovi putting up 40 goal/25 assists seasons or Hall/RNH doing 30 goal/30 assists years? Well yeah obviously Ovechkin.

When its 11 million versus 6.5 million though, plus considering age, you'd be stupid not to pick the young wingers who are producing more per dollar.

And secondary assists are still valuable, they're definitely not way behind goals/primary assists, players who drive play and have the pucks on their stick a lot pickup secondary assists but that doesn't mean their contribution to the play was significantly less important

What's with the fantasy numbers? Hall has scored 30 goals 1x in his career and RNH never has so I'm not sure where you're getting "30/30 years" from. Also, Hall makes 8M, not 6.5M. He is also guaranteed to miss games and only has 105pts in the last 3 seasons combined (OV has 181). He is also a loser, which he proved by signing in Buffalo despite saying his major goal is to win. Not sure why anyone would mention him beside OV. Even at your fantasy 6.5M, Hall is a waste of cap. As for RNH, you have to be kidding lol. Gets to ride McDavid and Drai's coattails but still can't score 30. Let OV ride shotgun to those guys and he's putting up 60+ for sure.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

No, that's too much.

But I'm sure Washington would pay it. His value to that organization is far greater than it would be for any other team.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

For Washington - absolutely yes.
For everyone else - makes no sense to pay him that much.

 

[22FUTON9]

For Washington - absolutely yes.
For everyone else - makes no sense to pay him that much.

Yep, I feel like this is the right answer

 

[hockey4sale]

Last summer it was rumored that Ovie is looking for ~11M in the new deal based on prorating his current contract signed in 2008 to today’s salary cap, the fact that deal is not signed yet tells me even Caps think 11M is a bit too much for 35year old Ovie, IMO Ovechkin’s new contract should be in the 8M-9M range, or just extend current 9.5M deal for next 3 years

 

[Roshi]

I dont have problem with the money, but id like it to be for 4-5 years.

But sure, if this is on the table, ill take it.

What do you guys think 3 time reigning Rocket winner is worth? How about someone who have won it 7/8 times for the last 8 years?

 

[ijuka]

Such a crazy AAV? No. Something reasonable? Sure.

 

[filinski77]

Last summer it was rumored that Ovie is looking for ~11M in the new deal based on prorating his current contract signed in 2008 to today’s salary cap, the fact that deal is not signed yet tells me even Caps think 11M is a bit too much for 35year old Ovie, IMO Ovechkin’s new contract should be in the 8M-9M range, or just extend current 9.5M deal for next 3 years

Can't remember who said it, but I recall hearing rumblings that Ovechkin (and other players around the league) will not likely be getting early extensions so that their teams don't have to use a protection slot for them in the upcoming expansion draft.

To answer the question though, no Ovi isn't worth $11 million (from a cap-hit value perspective). Neither is Crosby. Both are too old to be the 7th highest paid player in the league, and neither are top-7 players in the league.

 

[Mickey Marner]

For Washington - absolutely yes.
For everyone else - makes no sense to pay him that much.

This is correct. I think he'll come in under 11 though.

 

[SotasicA]

Same as the Crosby thread, yes. Ovechkin puts butts in seats and jersey’s on backs. Teams would make a ton of money off of Ovechkin.

You'd have to sell quite a lot of jerseys to make $33m.

 

[hockey4sale]

Can't remember who said it, but I recall hearing rumblings that Ovechkin (and other players around the league) will not likely be getting early extensions so that their teams don't have to use a protection slot for them in the upcoming expansion draft.

To answer the question though, no Ovi isn't worth $11 million (from a cap-hit value perspective). Neither is Crosby. Both are too old to be the 7th highest paid player in the league, and neither are top-7 players in the league.

Good point about expansion draft, that could be it, I totally forgot about the Seattle team

 

[libertarian]

I love OV but at his age a 11M X 3 years is a way over payment. In todays cap era you can no longer over pay players for loyalty when they are on the down side of their careers.

 

[txpd]

Last summer it was rumored that Ovie is looking for ~11M in the new deal based on prorating his current contract signed in 2008 to today’s salary cap, the fact that deal is not signed yet tells me even Caps think 11M is a bit too much for 35year old Ovie, IMO Ovechkin’s new contract should be in the 8M-9M range, or just extend current 9.5M deal for next 3 years

Very likely that its not signed yet because the Caps dont want to have to leave another forward unprotected. Simple as that. I believe BobbyMac said same on tv this week

 

[txpd]

I love OV but at his age a 11M X 3 years is a way over payment. In todays cap era you can no longer over pay players for loyalty when they are on the down side of their careers.

In the end these hockey teams are businesses. Leonsis will make a profit on Ov's salary based on merch sales alone. Ovechkin is worth every penny he could be paid in pure dollars and cents. The question is the % of the salary cap it takes up and whether they can keep a competitive team around him with the available cap space. Ovechkin will continue to make money for the Capitals after he retires from playing. Be honest. If he is making a legit run at Gretzky's goals record, the Capitals are going to be making money hand over fist off Ovechkin.

How much is a ufa level 40 goal scorer worth in the NHL? What is your projection for the downside of his career?

 

[txpd]

I dont have problem with the money, but id like it to be for 4-5 years.

But sure, if this is on the table, ill take it.

What do you guys think 3 time reigning Rocket winner is worth? How about someone who have won it 7/8 times for the last 8 years?

I am pretty confident that the deal will either match Backstrom's end date or will be a 5 year deal. I think Ov wants to play to 40 and I think doing that in one more contract is easiest.

 

[jetsforever]

That is an owners perspective not a fan perspective.

As a fan, overpaying a player for marketing reasons is dumb. Ovi is not even a 10M player now let alone 11

The fan version of that is you get to see the Ovechkin on your team!

 

[bobholly39]

Last summer it was rumored that Ovie is looking for ~11M in the new deal based on prorating his current contract signed in 2008 to today’s salary cap, the fact that deal is not signed yet tells me even Caps think 11M is a bit too much for 35year old Ovie, IMO Ovechkin’s new contract should be in the 8M-9M range, or just extend current 9.5M deal for next 3 years

The rumor as far as I remember it was 12 or 12.5M. Definitely started with 12 though I think. Just a rumor though, so who knows if true.

I dont have problem with the money, but id like it to be for 4-5 years.

But sure, if this is on the table, ill take it.

What do you guys think 3 time reigning Rocket winner is worth? How about someone who have won it 7/8 times for the last 8 years?

If he wasn't 35 yrs old, it'd be a no brainer. As you say, 3 rockets, 7/8, the AAV is fine, great even for that value. It all comes down to the age though - players past 35 almost always fall of a cliff, sharp decline. He's certainly pacing well so far, so he could end up being one of the few exceptions to hold up well past that

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, he’s going to still score goals for the next few seasons. Even if it’s 30-40, the contract isn’t terrible. If it’s 40-50, the contract isn’t bad.

 

[bobholly39]

Yes, he’s going to still score goals for the next few seasons. Even if it’s 30-40, the contract isn’t terrible. If it’s 40-50, the contract isn’t bad.

Just to set the right expectations based on historical precedence for that age group. For next 3 years he'll be 36, 37 and 38.

3 players in history have topped 40 goals at 36 (none 50) - and in pretty high scoring seasons (2007, 2006, 1979).
1 player in history topped 40 goals (40 exact) at age 37, and it was on a Boston team powered by Orr/Esposito in the expansion era, high scoring
Brett Hull scored 37 goals as a 38 year old. Only 2 other players (30 and 31 goals) topped 30 at 38 yrs old.

Clearly Ovechkin is in argument for the greatest goal-scorer ever, so if anyone can beat some of these age goal-scoring records, he has a good shot. But at his age, 30-40 is already a huge stretch, so I don't think that should be an expected minimum

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Just to set the right expectations based on historical precedence for that age group. For next 3 years he'll be 36, 37 and 38.

3 players in history have topped 40 goals at 36 (none 50) - and in pretty high scoring seasons (2007, 2006, 1979).
1 player in history topped 40 goals (40 exact) at age 37, and it was on a Boston team powered by Orr/Esposito in the expansion era, high scoring
Brett Hull scored 37 goals as a 38 year old. Only 2 other players (30 and 31 goals) topped 30 at 38 yrs old.

Clearly Ovechkin is in argument for the greatest goal-scorer ever, so if anyone can beat some of these age goal-scoring records, he has a good shot. But at his age, 30-40 is already a huge stretch, so I don't think that should be an expected minimum

Since I was bored, a couple of recent "elite" players and what they did at ages 36, 37 and 38.

Brett Hull
39 G, 79 P
30 G, 63 P
37 G, 76 P

Joe Sakic
32 G, 87 P
36 G, 100 P
13 G, 40 P (44 GP)

I looked up some others, but most of them were kind of injury plagued and didn't play full seasons (ie. Yzerman, Lemieux, etc.)

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

The rumor as far as I remember it was 12 or 12.5M. Definitely started with 12 though I think. Just a rumor though, so who knows if true.



If he wasn't 35 yrs old, it'd be a no brainer. As you say, 3 rockets, 7/8, the AAV is fine, great even for that value. It all comes down to the age though - players past 35 almost always fall of a cliff, sharp decline. He's certainly pacing well so far, so he could end up being one of the few exceptions to hold up well past that

Understand your point, but at the same time we've heard this for OV (and Crosby) every year: goal scorers fall off a cliff at age 30..then 31..then 32, 33, 34, 35. Maybe it's just time to accept that OV is an exception to the norm? Also, it makes no sense comparing ages guys like Esposito, Gretzky, Bobby Hull, etc fell off because technology, nutrition, etc have developed so much in recent years. Athletes in all sports are retiring later, have way longer primes, etc.

 

[895]

Very likely that its not signed yet because the Caps dont want to have to leave another forward unprotected. Simple as that. I believe BobbyMac said same on tv this week

Haven't you been arguing the opposite for months?

 

[txpd]

Haven't you been arguing the opposite for months?

I have been. Yes, but I trust BobbyMac knows more than I do and I can admit being wrong. I can believe they are going to do that. I still believe the media circus will be off the hook if they wait with speculation of who might get Ov.

 

[Regal]

If the Canucks signed their RFAs to shorter, cheaper deals and could dump their bad contracts, then sure. Would love to have him on the team and the interest and excitement alone is probably worth a bit of overpayment. Unfortunately Benning has ran the team for 7 years so there's no room barring a miracle.