Alex Ovechkin, Alex Edler and their +/- ratings.

[Love]

Im a big Edler fan and with all the trade talk around him lately, I've been hoping that Gillis doesnt trade him because despite HF's endless knowledge of players they never watch, I still think he's great and wouldnt fetch an adequate return due to his "poor play" this season.


Most peoples biggest knock against both Edler and Ovechkin this season, is an argument that is very heavily based on +/- (Ovie is -19 and Edler is -22). I am by no means an Advanced Stats specialist especially when it comes to NHL advanced stats, but I tried my best to find out more of whats really going on with these two players and if their +/- ratings are actually indicative of their play.


So I found this article by SB Nation on Ovechkin's +/-: http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/2/1/5367724/alex-ovechkin-and-the-problem-with-plus-minus

The article is short so I think its worth a read but essentially what it is saying is this: Plus/Minus is a stat that doesnt take into account "how" or "why" a goal is scored. I t simply records how many goals for vs how many goals against when a certain player is on the ice at 5 on 5. The problem with that is, that Ovechkin could be on the ice for 10 shots for and 1 against, and be a -1. This chart below explains the concept much better, but essentially it shows that Ovechkin has not changed, but his teammates around him (both goalies and skaters) have gotten significantly worse.

On-Ice shooting percentage is his teammates Shooting % when Ovie is on the Ice.

On-Ice save percentage is the goalies Save % when Ovie is on the ice.

Year Ovechkin Shooting % On-Ice Shooting % On-Ice Save %
2013-14 12.1% 7.25% .900
2012-13 11.5% 11.2% .916
2011-12 9.85% 8.75% .916
2010-11 8.50% 9.09% .929
2009-10 14.9% 12.2% .936
2008-09 10.2% 10.2% .900
2007-08 12.7% 10.7% .905



Ovechkin's shooting percentage is actually higher this season than his career average. So why is his +/- so bad this year even though it is usually very good? His team is ****. Ovie hasnt changed, but his surrounding have. Ovie's shooting % in 09/10 was the same as this season, yet he had a plus 45 rating that year (this season he is on pace for minus 27).


As for Edler, He has easily the worst PDO (Shooting % + Save %) on the entire Cancuks roster (96%). Edler even has a higher Shooting % than Garrison, Bieksa and Hamhuis, yet they all have significantly higher PDO.

You might say, "Yeah thats fine, it just shows he's good offensively but allows way more chances than he creates." Not so fast...

His Corsi For % (Shots for vs Shots against) is essentially the exact same as both Ryan Stanton and Dan Hamhuis who are tops for D-Men on the Canucks. He is significantly better than Tanev, Garrison and Weber in that regard.

For whatever reason, Edler's On-Ice Shooting % is 4.2% (Lowest on the team). And Dan Hamhuis leads the team in that regard at 8.9%. Why is this the case? Edler's personal shooting % is better than Hamhuis'. IMO, it is a very similar situation to Ovechkin's. Edler isnt any worse than he once was, but his team certainly has **** the bed as of late.

I hope that we can learn to stop using plus/minus as a credible stat. Obviously my argument isnt fool proof and as I said before, I barely know how these advanced stats work, but I hope this can take some heat of players like Ovie and Edler for simply having a bad plus/minus rating as there is way more to it than that.

Here's the link to where I got some of these stats from:

http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice?team=van&min_gp=50&sort=shooting_pct

Click to read more...

 

[Davegarri]

Well a huge reason for Ovi not having a stellar +/- is that power play goals, points, or just being on the ice during a ppg does not factor into +/-.

Ovi has 60 points this season, 27 of those points are on the PP (15g 12a), making 45% of his points come on the power play. I'm sure he's also been on the ice during PPG's where he didn't get a point, not affecting his +/-. That's why often players that thrive on the PP have surprisingly low +/-'s.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Well a huge reason for Ovi not having a stellar +/- is that power play goals, points, or just being on the ice during a ppg does not factor into +/-.

Ovi has 60 points this season, 27 of those points are on the PP (15g 12a), making 45% of his points come on the power play. I'm sure he's also been on the ice during PPG's where he didn't get a point, not affecting his +/-. That's why often players that thrive on the PP have surprisingly low +/-'s.

Someone's effectiveness on the PP has nothing to do with his +/-.

There are plenty of great PP players who are also very strong at even strength and thus have a good +/-.

To be fair though, there are a large variety of contextual and team related factors that go into +/-, so it should be taken with a grain of fault.

 

[ThatForeignGuy]

Edler is arguably our most physical defense men, up there with Bieksa. Edler gets a lot of hate because people were labeling him "The Next Lidstrom" which is very unrealistic, although he has shown he has the tools, he hasn't been able to put it all together. After that people were expecting him to be our savior and our #1 defense man, and he's not quite there yet (I say that loosely).

People only see his +/- and they think that he's terrible, when in fact he's actually playing like he always has, the only thing that's changed is the Canucks aren't scoring as many goals and our power play sucks. Factor in that he's on the ice more than most of our team and you can see where that useless stat comes from. The fact of the matter is that all our defense men are slumping but since Edler is the guy we have such high expectations for, he's where we put the blame when things go bad.

 

[Brooklanders*]

Its the worst stat for judging a player. In Haseks prime just like at the Red Wings team plus/minus and that will tell u plenty.

 

[ponder]

It hasn't been "poor play" for Edler this season, he's been legitimately awful. I watch most Nucks games, am definitely a fan of Edler's game in general, but he's been playing with zero confidence this year (offensively or defensively), and has been making bad mistakes constantly. I expect him to bounce back eventually, he has too much skill not to, but to say he hasn't been bad this year is just wrong.