Alex Cotton, 132nd Overall

[Frk It]

1. Have realistic expectations for drafting in rounds 4-7
2. Continue to be disappointed

The choice is yours

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

1. Have realistic expectations for drafting in rounds 4-7
2. Continue to be disappointed

The choice is yours

This isn't expecting the guy to become a 60 point all star. This is us saying that drafting an overager that can't skate is not a good recipe for success. And again, if 20 of the players picked between Detroit's first 4th (97 OA) and Detroit's 5th (132 OA) look like promising prospects that could at least be AHLers, then we f***ed up.

33 players were picked between Stange and Cotton. Literally 2/3rd of them look to be more promising prospects than anyone we picked in that range. And half of that look like they could be NHLers at some point.

2020 was a very deep draft and the Wings scouts pooped the bed outside of Raymond and Wallinder. The verdict is still out on Niederbach, Hanas and Viro but they don't look too promising. The Wings literally could have just gone off the CSB rankings and drafted better than they did.

2020 Draft Prospect Rankings

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

That is a lot of animus directed towards a 132nd OA pick

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That is a lot of animus directed towards a 132nd OA pick

It's more that he was picked at all. Like I said, Detroit's drafting from the 3rd to 7th round in what was a deep draft kind of sucked in general. Cotton is just the most obvious of bad picks in that draft.

 

[Gniwder]

I have a small amount of hope for Chase Bradley but he's looking like a 5-6 year project. The rest are looking like they are going to wash out of hockey by 2023 or 2024. Maybe Bednar becomes an Extraliiga or DEL level goalie, but he's not that good.

Sure, 5 or 6 years then he might be as good as Crisco. At least the 2021 late picks have a better chance of being AHLers, the 2020 draft looks like they thought the draft was going to be cancelled by COVID and they got drunk all season. I'm wondering if these guys even know how to use a freakin' computer. They could've done better by surfing the internet like we do.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Sure, 5 or 6 years then he might be as good as Crisco. At least the 2021 late picks have a better chance of being AHLers, the 2020 draft looks like they thought the draft was going to be cancelled by COVID and they got drunk all season. I'm wondering if these guys even know how to use a freakin' computer. They could've done better by surfing the internet like we do.

The 2021 draft looks like our late picks could be something. Mazur has the makings of a top 9 guy, Savage and Dower-Nilsson had good years and notable improvements from their draft. I'd bet that Savage makes it as a LGD type at some point in the future, and Dower-Nilsson goes to the AHL at some point, at the least.

 

[TCNorthstars]

This isn't expecting the guy to become a 60 point all star. This is us saying that drafting an overager that can't skate is not a good recipe for success. And again, if 20 of the players picked between Detroit's first 4th (97 OA) and Detroit's 5th (132 OA) look like promising prospects that could at least be AHLers, then we f***ed up.

33 players were picked between Stange and Cotton. Literally 2/3rd of them look to be more promising prospects than anyone we picked in that range. And half of that look like they could be NHLers at some point.

2020 was a very deep draft and the Wings scouts pooped the bed outside of Raymond and Wallinder. The verdict is still out on Niederbach, Hanas and Viro but they don't look too promising. The Wings literally could have just gone off the CSB rankings and drafted better than they did.

2020 Draft Prospect Rankings

If all they are is AHLers, how did we mess up?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

If all they are is AHLers, how did we mess up?

Why are you OK with drafting guys that are only in the system for 2 years and then we let walk?

If they only end up as AHLers that helps the farm team, but it's better than being a washout. It also gives them additional development time. Maybe they get a cup of coffee in the bigs? Maybe they become good veteran mentors for the next crop of youngsters we draft and put on the farm? Maybe they learn enough about the game to become coaches or management or scouting staff for the team?

 

[TCNorthstars]

Why are you OK with drafting guys that are only in the system for 2 years and then we let walk?

If they only end up as AHLers that helps the farm team, but it's better than being a washout. It also gives them additional development time. Maybe they get a cup of coffee in the bigs? Maybe they become good veteran mentors for the next crop of youngsters we draft and put on the farm? Maybe they learn enough about the game to become coaches or management or scouting staff for the team?

Because no team signs 100% of their players to contracts, none. Those rounds are a real crap shoot and not where you find great players. From the 2014-2019 drafts (round 5 on) there have been 26 guys who have played 100+ games in the NHL. There were 543 picks in round 5 on in that time. So 5% have played meaningful time in the NHL. Those are not good odds. Granted those numbers will go up a bit (closer to 8%) as these younger ones develop, but that is an incredibly low percentage. Again, no team signs 100% of their players. Cutting bait quickly with someone you don't see in your future gives others that may have a better shot more of an opportunity.

 

[Frk It]

It's more that he was picked at all. Like I said, Detroit's drafting from the 3rd to 7th round in what was a deep draft kind of sucked in general. Cotton is just the most obvious of bad picks in that draft.

How the f*** was he the most obvious of the bad picks? He wasn't even a bad pick.

He had just scored 20 goals and put up 67 pts that year and out-produced kids taken the year before in their +1 years..

He had some good offensive tools, mainly his shot. They hoped the rest of his game improved more. It didn't.

 

[Perfect Human]

pick 132 is like what a 15% probability to play in the NHL?

edit: regularly for a short while

 

[Frk It]

Why are you OK with drafting guys that are only in the system for 2 years and then we let walk?

Why are you not OK with something that happens 90% of the time happening?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Why are you not OK with something that happens 90% of the time happening?

Because when you have 12 picks you should hope for more than 2 of them to be something.

 

[TCNorthstars]

pick 132 is like what a 15% probability to play in the NHL?

edit: regularly for a short while

Since the 2011 draft only 1 player has played ANY games in the NHL. Jacob Peterson - Dallas (2017) 65gp 17pts. So it looks like 10%.

 

[Perfect Human]

Since the 2011 draft only 1 player has played ANY games in the NHL. Jacob Peterson - Dallas (2017) 65gp 17pts. So it looks like 10%.

So does that mean we can close this thread now that he was not signed?

 

[TCNorthstars]

Because when you have 12 picks you should hope for more than 2 of them to be something.

I think the WIngs have a better chance in the lottery than teams getting more than 2 legit NHLers out of a draft.

 

[Henkka]

This isn't expecting the guy to become a 60 point all star. This is us saying that drafting an overager that can't skate is not a good recipe for success. And again, if 20 of the players picked between Detroit's first 4th (97 OA) and Detroit's 5th (132 OA) look like promising prospects that could at least be AHLers, then we f***ed up.

33 players were picked between Stange and Cotton. Literally 2/3rd of them look to be more promising prospects than anyone we picked in that range. And half of that look like they could be NHLers at some point.

2020 was a very deep draft and the Wings scouts pooped the bed outside of Raymond and Wallinder. The verdict is still out on Niederbach, Hanas and Viro but they don't look too promising. The Wings literally could have just gone off the CSB rankings and drafted better than they did.

2020 Draft Prospect Rankings

When you are listing those names, North American drafting is the problem and Europe rolling just fine.

 

[MBH]

Cotton - picked in his D+1 year, outscored Bowen Byram that year (also in his D+1 year).
It's worth drafting a kid and seeing if he can make enough improvements in his game to maintain your interest.

 

[Gniwder]

Cotton - picked in his D+1 year, outscored Bowen Byram that year (also in his D+1 year).
It's worth drafting a kid and seeing if he can make enough improvements in his game to maintain your interest.

Stat watchers make for poor scouts. Hakan did the exact opposite with Soderblom, he had terrible stats but Hakan saw the potential regardless. Bargain pick at #159.

The other thing is, Cotton has absolutely no hockey IQ, and it's really apparent. As we've seen with past players and prospects, you can't fix stupid even if the team did manage to fix his skating.

 

[MBH]

Stat watchers make for poor scouts. Hakan did the exact opposite with Soderblom, he had terrible stats but Hakan saw the potential regardless. Bargain pick at #159.

The other thing is, Cotton has absolutely no hockey IQ, and it's really apparent. As we've seen with past players and prospects, you can't fix stupid even if the team did manage to fix his skating.

The best predictor for the future is the past.
I'll take a guy who goes big as a D1 overager over a Kienan Draper type any day of the week.

Although, quite honestly, watching Cotton in the kids tournament, it got pretty obvious pretty fast that he was struggling.
But I thought the same about Regula too. And that kid's got 16 NHL games to his name.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The best predictor for the future is the past.
I'll take a guy who goes big as a D1 overager over a Kienan Draper type any day of the week.

Although, quite honestly, watching Cotton in the kids tournament, it got pretty obvious pretty fast that he was struggling.
But I thought the same about Regula too. And that kid's got 16 NHL games to his name.

Cotton doesn’t have half the skating ability of Regula.

 

[Gniwder]

Cotton doesn’t have half the skating ability of Regula.

or half the brain of Bowey who was also a 1 PPG player in the WHL.

 

[Frk It]

Cotton was ranked top 100 by Central Scouting, HockeyProspect, and FC Hockey that year and we got him at 132.

 

[Killerjas]

Cotton was ranked top 100 by Central Scouting, HockeyProspect, and FC Hockey that year and we got him at 132.

Lots of players are ranked top 100 by Central Scouting and other organisations, and never get drafted.

 

[MBH]

If we held Detroit to the same standards the Monday morning QBs want, we never would have drafted Soderblom.