After Matthews and Laine rookie seasons; 40 and 36 goal, rookies goal scoring has gotten down, a lot, although goal scoring itself is way up
- Thread starter Artorius Horus T
- Start date
This is a bigger topic than just rookie goal scoring.
We had super rookies a decade ago that were immediately among the best players in the league, and within a short period of time taking their teams to the playoffs. Connor Bedard might do that for the Blackhawks soon, maybe, maybe not.
But the trend since 2016 is that the top picks don't deliver to that level. Only one of the #1OA picks since 2016 is going to the playoffs this Spring, and he was heavily carried by the undrafted player on his line (Panarin). You'll still hear people talking like tanking for elite talent is the best strategy but the better teams usually don't have many players under 24. The Bruins have none. The Lightning have some guy named Lilleberg, the Panthers only Lundell, the Canucks only Hoglander, or maybe you can add Podkolzin if he sticks. The Oilers have Broberg and Holloway which have yet to establish themselves.
Leaving aside team success, and just looking at individual production - have a look at the top 20 scorers in the league, Robert Thomas and Quinn Hughes are 24, everyone else is 25 or older. No one 23 or under.
So yes rookie goal scoring isn't what it used to be, and young player scoring in general isn't what it used to be.
We had super rookies a decade ago that were immediately among the best players in the league, and within a short period of time taking their teams to the playoffs. Connor Bedard might do that for the Blackhawks soon, maybe, maybe not.
But the trend since 2016 is that the top picks don't deliver to that level. Only one of the #1OA picks since 2016 is going to the playoffs this Spring, and he was heavily carried by the undrafted player on his line (Panarin). You'll still hear people talking like tanking for elite talent is the best strategy but the better teams usually don't have many players under 24. The Bruins have none. The Lightning have some guy named Lilleberg, the Panthers only Lundell, the Canucks only Hoglander, or maybe you can add Podkolzin if he sticks. The Oilers have Broberg and Holloway which have yet to establish themselves.
Leaving aside team success, and just looking at individual production - have a look at the top 20 scorers in the league, Robert Thomas and Quinn Hughes are 24, everyone else is 25 or older. No one 23 or under.
So yes rookie goal scoring isn't what it used to be, and young player scoring in general isn't what it used to be.
Auston Matthews is the youngest player among the top 15 goal scorers in the NHL.
He's 26.
He's also the youngest among the top 10 in points.
He's 26.
He's also the youngest among the top 10 in points.
I believe espescially Bedard is closer talentwise in goalscoring than his goalscoring this year indicates. Also he has a little bit better ppg than Matthews and Laine.
But he plays on one of the worst teams in a long time. Except Sharks who where even worse this year you have to go back to 16/17 Colorado to find a team with fewer than 52 points.
Toronto had 95 points in Matthews rookie season and Winnipeg 87 points. Toronto had two other rookies the same year as Matthews with over 60 points in Nylander and Marner. Also had Zitsev, Hyman and Brown joining as rookies so they took a huge step forward that year. Have to be the best group of rookies joining a team in a year.
Also had some offensive talent on the team outside of the rookies in JVR, Kadri, Bozak and Rielly.
Winnipeg meanwhile had Ehlers, Scheifele, Wheeler, Byfuglien, Perreault, Trouba and Little.
This year Chicago's best players outside of Bedard are a 36 year old Foligno, Kurashev, Dickinson and Seth Jones.
But he plays on one of the worst teams in a long time. Except Sharks who where even worse this year you have to go back to 16/17 Colorado to find a team with fewer than 52 points.
Toronto had 95 points in Matthews rookie season and Winnipeg 87 points. Toronto had two other rookies the same year as Matthews with over 60 points in Nylander and Marner. Also had Zitsev, Hyman and Brown joining as rookies so they took a huge step forward that year. Have to be the best group of rookies joining a team in a year.
Also had some offensive talent on the team outside of the rookies in JVR, Kadri, Bozak and Rielly.
Winnipeg meanwhile had Ehlers, Scheifele, Wheeler, Byfuglien, Perreault, Trouba and Little.
This year Chicago's best players outside of Bedard are a 36 year old Foligno, Kurashev, Dickinson and Seth Jones.
Sam de Mtl
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2021
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League had a gap in talent that was quickly filled by young talent a few years ago. As the gap got filled, there remained less space for new rookies to achieve the same level of success.
The coming expansion processes may yet bring a new wave of young talents to eventually gap what will be a declining level of competition for a few years with teams being a little thin for a while.
The coming expansion processes may yet bring a new wave of young talents to eventually gap what will be a declining level of competition for a few years with teams being a little thin for a while.
- Jan 24, 2007
- 7,316
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I think it’s the sticks, and the % of NHLers that have used composite sticks from a very young age is growing every year, limiting the impact of the rookies who had a legit competitive advantage due to understanding the sticks better earlier.
Every player in the NHL today grew up with composites, they were introduced nearly 30 years ago. I don’t think that would have a major influence, more likely IMO that an event like lost Covid seasons is having a larger impact on younger players.
Uh? No, this isn't how it works.
The current crop of rookies just is less talented.
- Jan 24, 2007
- 7,316
- 7,735
I remember looking before at when they were allowed at the junior and lower levels to establish a timeline, and it was relatively recently (like 2011 I want to say?) I tried to google search and couldn't find the exact dates. That kind of lines up with the Matthews / Laine class being particularly good at utilizing them but those two are also unique talents with amazing shots and are outliers.
I'm also not up to speed on how composite sticks have improved in 30 years. In any case modern offenses have totally changed and the big reason is the amount of torque players now generate with subtle wrist movements on composite sticks, and I do believe younger players that used them from a young age had a competitive advantage due to it.
ginomini
Registered User
- May 25, 2014
- 799
- 852
This theory is completing wrong hhaha, I played U10 hockey in 2006 and everyone had composite sticks hahaha.
And also, it does not take 15 years to get used to new stick technology, maybe more like 15 days?
gifted88
Dante the poet
There has only been one player drafted since the Matthews draft I thought could put up big goal totals in his first year. Bedard.
It's like saying that after 05-06 rookies goal scoring went down. That was just Matthews and Laine. No rookie since then has come into the league with their talent and readiness. Except, maybe, Kaprizov who was on pace for 40 goals, but Covid... If Michkov arrives and immediately scores 40+, this should not be a reason for global conclusions.
Martin Skoula
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2017
- 11,768
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Do you remember that close up super slow mo clip of rookie year Kessel shooting a snap shot in some sort of practice setting, everyone went nuts about the whip on it? That part of the shot hasn’t evolved, but guys like Bedard are doing it at full speed after a toe drag and angle change against the flow of motion while he’s holding the stick a foot away from his body.
It’s not the stick itself but what you can do by combining it with other skills and years of training the muscle memory on them. That plus I don’t think Kessel’s coaches would let him experiment with skating into multiple D-men’s to toe drag shot through their skates when he can safely score 30+ just flying down the wing and ripping normal shots.
How long did it take after the first slapshot for the netfront tip meta to develop?
jigglysquishy
Registered User
The league has seen talent gaps before. 1998-2002 produced very little in consistent talent.
1998 produced one future HHOFer, late round Pavel Datsyuk.
1999 produced two HHOFers, in the Sedins, and one future one in late round Henrik Zetterberg.
2000 produced one HHOFer, in late round Henrik Lundqvist.
2001 produced zero HHOFers, though Kovalchuk is a HHOF talent.
2002 produced one future HHOFer, in Duncan Keith
Then 2003 is known as one of the deepest drafts in NHL history, and was followed by Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby right after.
The weak years were partly due to weird cultural values to huge, slow, low-skill players. But also partly due to being impacted by the 2005 lockout.
Similiarly, the 2017-2021 drafts were all impacted by the transition from trapping hockey 2010-2017, to fast no-hitting hockey, then followed by massive disruption in COVID.
1998 produced one future HHOFer, late round Pavel Datsyuk.
1999 produced two HHOFers, in the Sedins, and one future one in late round Henrik Zetterberg.
2000 produced one HHOFer, in late round Henrik Lundqvist.
2001 produced zero HHOFers, though Kovalchuk is a HHOF talent.
2002 produced one future HHOFer, in Duncan Keith
Then 2003 is known as one of the deepest drafts in NHL history, and was followed by Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby right after.
The weak years were partly due to weird cultural values to huge, slow, low-skill players. But also partly due to being impacted by the 2005 lockout.
Similiarly, the 2017-2021 drafts were all impacted by the transition from trapping hockey 2010-2017, to fast no-hitting hockey, then followed by massive disruption in COVID.
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