AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

Update coming tomorrow - but I missed very fringe cases that both the Colts and Broncos could miss the playoffs despite winning out, and those cases held up over week 11 so far. (The Colts one involved Denver winning the AFC West AND Buffalo winning the AFC East, while the Denver one required the Colts to win out to finish ahead of them and Buffalo also to win the AFC East, just to give you idea just HOW fringe).

A Chiefs loss tonight will however mean the Colts control their own destiny for a wild card, because it means the Broncos could no longer win the division at 12-5 with the Chiefs also at 12-5, which is a requirement for the Colts missing the playoffs at 12-5.

The only teams to control their own destiny right now in the AFC are teams already in a playoff position.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Well the KC loss came through, so the Colts control their own destiny again. Additionally, we are in the strange spot of the current first place team not controlling their own destiny for home field - or even their division! - the Chiefs are still in the driver's seat in that respect for the conference and Cleveland will win the AFC North if they win out (and BAL-CLE have no more games against each other)

AFTER WEEK 11:
1. Baltimore - 8-3
2. Kansas City - 7-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over JAX and MIA)
3. Jacksonville - 7-3 (Holds SoV tiebreaker over MIA)
4. Miami - 7-3 (AFC East leader)
5. Cleveland - 7-3
6. Houston - 6-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over PIT)
7. Pittsburgh - 6-4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Buffalo - 6-5
9. Indianapolis - 5-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN, CIN)
10. Denver - 5-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
11. Cincinnati - 5-5
12. Las Vegas - 5-6
13. LA Chargers - 4-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
14. NY Jets - 4-6
15. Tennessee - 3-7
16. New England - 2-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for a wild card
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for a wild card
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 12:
- Kansas City can lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss
- Cleveland will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, KC loss, and MIA loss.
- Jacksonville will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss.
- Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and either a BAL or PIT win.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss.
- Baltimore will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a CLE loss.
- Pittsburgh will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a CLE loss.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, BAL win, CLE win, PIT win, JAX win, BUF win, and MIA win.
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, BAL win, HOU win, DEN win, MIA win, and BUF win
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny with a loss and 2 of the following 3 occur (1)A BUF+MIA win (2)A PIT win, or (3)A HOU win.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, PIT loss, and BAL loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, and any of a BUF, IND, BAL or JAX loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and either (1)BUF loss or (2)a JAX and BAL loss

CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- New England can no longer win home field throughout the playoffs with a loss.

 

[misterchainsaw]

This feels like it's going to get more congested for the wild cards rather than less with Cleveland down their QB and the AFC South beating each other up. The Colts sneak into the 7th spot ahead of Houston, but they also still have a matchup remaining. By my reasoning 11 teams are still realistically alive for the playoffs - although if you don't think Cincy can win 5 of 6 with a backup quarterback I wouldn't blame you for taking them out - their tiebreakers are also bottom of the barrel.

Denver just misses on controlling their own destiny - there is a specific scenario where Baltimore finishes 3rd in the AFC North at 12-5 while losing a non-conference game that leaves Denver on the outside looking in on tiebreakers.

We've also got a total elimination scenario for New England this week (and probably 2 for the NFC though I haven't looked at that conference due to the Monday night game yet)

AFTER WEEK 12: (a - eliminated from home field advantage contention)
1. Baltimore - 9-3
2. Kansas City - 8-3 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over JAX and MIA)
3. Jacksonville - 8-3 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over MIA)
4. Miami - 8-3
5. Pittsburgh - 7-4 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over CLE)
6. Cleveland - 7-4
7. Indianapolis - 6-5 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over HOU) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Houston - 6-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN)
9. Denver - 6-5
10. Buffalo - 6-6
11. Cincinnati - 5-6
12. Las Vegas - 5-7
13. LA Chargers - 4-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and NYJ)
14. NY Jets - 4-7 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over TEN)
15. Tennessee - 4-7
a-16. New England - 2-9

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card.

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 13:
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and a JAX, BAL, or MIA win.
- Baltimore will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a KC loss.
- Jacksonville will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win and a KC loss.
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, KC loss, and JAX loss.
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss.
- Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card birth with a loss, JAX win, IND win, DEN win, and PIT win.
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, PIT win, and DEN win.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and a CLE win.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and an IND, PIT, or JAX loss.

CLINCHING AND ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 13:
- The NY Jets will be eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss,
- Tennessee will be eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss and either (1)a MIA win, (2)a JAX win, or (3)a CLE, PIT and KC win.
- The LA Chargers will be eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss and either (1)a MIA win, (2)a JAX win, or (3)a IND, CLE, PIT, and KC win.
- New England will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss or a MIA win.
- The NY Jets will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss and a MIA win.
- New England will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, IND win, PIT win, and either (1)a CLE win or (2)a CIN and HOU win.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Fun Fact:

If the Dolphins win their next 2 (home vs. Tenn & home vs, Jets) and the Bills lose ONE of its next 2 (at KC & home vs. Dallas) The Dolphins will clinch the AFC East before their final 3 week gauntlet of Dallas/Bal/Buf.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I'm making no guarentees on the control of destiny changes this week. Shit's convoluted

Anyone want to see if they can find a scenario in the playoff machine where Indy can lose this week, then win out and still miss the playoffs? My reference says they will not control their own destiny after a loss this week, but I'm not seeing it. Their tiebreakers are too good and Cincy has to lose to KC for Denver to win the AFC West to make KC one of the wild cards with a better conference record. And Indy would have a H2H tiebreaker over PIT. I can't get 3 wild cards over them.

(This site is easier to manage than ESPN's playoff machine, BTW: Playoff Predictors
Just click "update" any time you want to go back to the current standings.)

AFTER WEEK 13: (a - eliminated from home field advantage; d - eliminated from division)
1. Miami - 9-3 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over BAL)
2. Baltimore - 9-3
3. Kansas City - 8-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over JAX)
4. Jacksonville - 8-4
5. Pittsburgh - 7-5 (Holds Divisional record tiebreaker over CLE) (Holds Common opponents record over IND)
6. Cleveland - 7-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over IND)
7. Indianapolis - 7-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over HOU)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Houston - 7-5
9. Denver - 6-6 (Buffalo eliminated from tiebreaker via H2H, holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
10. Cincinnati - 6-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over BUF)
11. Buffalo - 6-6
12. LA Chargers - 5-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over LV)
13. Las Vegas - 5-7
14. d - NY Jets - 4-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN)
15. a - Tennessee - 4-8
16. d - New England - 2-10

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Miami controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 14:
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and either a KC or JAX win.
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and a KC win.
- Kansas City will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, MIA loss, and BAL loss.
- Jacksonville will gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, KC loss, and MIA loss.
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, CLE win, HOU win, DEN win, and BAL win
- Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and either (1)PIT + DEN win, (2)a DEN + HOU win, or (3)a HOU + IND + PIT win.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, BUF win, and DEN win.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and either(1) an IND loss, or (2)2 of PIT, CLE, HOU lose.
- Cincinatti will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and 3 of the following teams lose: BUF, DEN, CLE, HOU, and PIT.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, DEN loss, IND loss, HOU loss, PIT loss, and CLE loss.

CLINCHING AND ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 14:
- New England is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, CIN win, HOU win, OR a BUF+LV win.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss, or two of the following three teams win: MIA, BAL, JAX.
- The LA Chargers are eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss, MIA+BAL win, or a JAX+BAL win combined with JAX clinching SoV over LAC.
- Buffalo is eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss and either (1)a MIA win or (2)a JAX+BAL win.
- Cincinatti is eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss and a MIA win.
- Denver is eliminated from home field advantage contention with a loss and 2 of the following 3 teams win: BAL, MIA, JAX.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

SIX teams at 7-6 in the AFC.

This is how this car crash shakes out right now, top 2 teams are in WC spots.

PIT 7-6
IND 7-6
---
HOU 7-6
DEN 7-6
CIN 7-6
BUF 7-6

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Happy for my Ravens, alone at the top for now... toughest schedule left but gave themselves a shot. Might get some help from injuries on other squads:

Dec 17: Jaguars @ Jacksonville
Dec 25: 49ers @ San Fran
Dec 31: Dolphins in Baltimore
Jan 7: Steelers in Baltimore.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Both conferences are getting nuts. New England lasts a couple extra days with their upset over Pittsburgh, but Cincinnati dropped the hammer to eliminate them in the 1:00 window Sunday. Miami somehow still controls their own destiny for #1 after 3 of the 4 division winners lose. We now have two division races within a game and all 4 are at least somewhat in play with Baltimore/Miami having difficult schedules down the stretch. (I'd actually argue the two that are within a game (KC over DEN and JAX over HOU/IND) are safer than the two that are not).

Again no guarentee's on the changes of destiny - I don't have a reference for that and shit's complicated Buffalo's is the major scenario I'm not sure is exactly right. The eliminations for the 5-8 teams are also ridiculous but I have a reference there.


AFTER WEEK 14: (a - eliminated from home field advantage; d - eliminated from division)
1. Baltimore - 10-3
2. Miami - 9-4
3. Kansas City - 8-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over JAX) (AFC West Leader)
4. Jacksonville - 8-5 (AFC South Leader)
5. Cleveland - 8-5
6. Pittsburgh - 7-6 (Holds H2H divsion tiebreaker over CIN) (DEN and BUF are eliminated from tiebreaker via conference record, then PIT holds common games tiebreaker over IND)
7. Indianapolis - 7-6 (Holds H2H division tiebreaker over HOU) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN, CIN, and BUF)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Houston - 7-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN, CIN, and BUF)
9. Denver - 7-6 (Buffalo eliminated from tiebreaker via H2H, holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
10. Cincinnati - 7-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over BUF)
11. Buffalo - 7-6
12. a - LA Chargers - 5-8 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over LV) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ and TEN)
13. a - Las Vegas - 5-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ and TEN)
14. d - NY Jets - 5-8 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over TEN)
15. a - Tennessee - 5-8
ELIMINATED: New England

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Miami controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card.


POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 15:
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and a BAL, JAX, or KC win.
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss.
- Houston will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and any of: a MIA win, a KC win, a BUF loss, a DEN loss, or a PIT loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and any of: a HOU+IND loss, a BUF loss, or a CLE+IND loss
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and any of: (1)a CLE+HOU loss, (2)a CLE+IND loss (3)a KC loss, (4)a BUF loss, (5)a DEN loss
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and three of (1)DEN loss, (2)a KC+CIN loss (3)IND + CLE loss, (4)HOU + CLE loss (5)PIT+(CIN or CLE) loss

CLINCHING AND ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 15:
- Baltimore will clinch a wild card with a win with either (1)a BUF or DEN loss plus any of a PIT/HOU/CLE loss OR a (2)BUF AND DEN loss.

- The NY Jets are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and either (1)a BUF win*, (2)3 of 4 of CIN, IND, HOU, and CLE win or (3)a PIT, HOU, and CLE win
- Tennessee is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss, OR a LV+DEN+KC+MIA win.
- Tennessee is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss* (* also satsified with a DEN+LV win or a DEN+BUF+LAC win in addition to the note below)
- Las Vegas is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and either a KC or DEN win.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, a BUF and DEN win, and any of the following: (1)CIN+PIT+CLE win, (2)CIN+HOU+KC+JAX win (3)CIN+HOU+CLE+JAX win, (4)IND+HOU+CLE+JAX win, (5)PIT+HOU+KC+JAX+MIA win (6)PIT+CLE+KC+JAX+MIA win or (7)HOU+CLE+KC+JAX+SoV/SoS clinches
- LA Chargers are eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and either a KC or DEN win.
- LA Chargers are eliminated from playoff contention wtih a loss, HOU and JAX win, and any of the following: (1)CIN+DEN+CLE win, (2)CIN+CLE+KC win, (3)NE, DEN, PIT, CLE win, (4)CIN, DEN, IND, mIA win, (5)DEN+PIT+CLE win + SoV clinches, (6)PIT+CLE+KC win + SoV clinches, (7)CIN+BUF+DEN+IND+KC win + SoV clinches,
- Buffalo is eliminated from home field advantage with a loss and either a MIA or BAL win.
- Cincinnati is eliminated from home field advantage and AFC North contention with a loss or a BAL win.
- Denver is eliminated from home field advantage with (1)a loss plus either a MIA or BAL win OR (2)a MIA and BAL win with a BUF loss.
- Houston is eliminated from home field advantage with (1)a loss plus either a MIA or BAL win OR (2)an IND+BAL+MIA win with a BUF loss.
- Indianapolis is eliminated from home field advantage with a loss and either a MIA or BAL win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from home field advantage with a loss and a MIA win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from AFC North contention with a loss and a BAL win.


*The results marked with an * in various elimination scenarios also requires either IND/HOU to not tie or a CIN win

 

[Karterthadon]

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

They keep saying Bills don't control their destiny...how exactly do they miss the playoffs if they finish 11-6? I ran it through ESPN's playoff machine (which has been spotty in recent years) and can't figure out how they miss without a tie happening (that may be the answer as to whey don't control it). @misterchainsaw your help is needed.

 

[misterchainsaw]

They keep saying Bills don't control their destiny...how exactly do they miss the playoffs if they finish 11-6? I ran it through ESPN's playoff machine (which has been spotty in recent years) and can't figure out how they miss without a tie happening (that may be the answer as to whey don't control it). @misterchainsaw your help is needed.

Cincy, Indy and Cleveland can all finish ahead of them for wild cards at 11-6 (they'd all have to win out except for a CLE loss to CIN)

 

[PanthersPens62]

Assuming the Bills beat both the Chargers & Pats, if Miami loses at least 1 of the next 2 then Week 18 will be for the AFC East title. If the 'Fins can beat Dallas & Baltimore they will clinch the AFC East & week 18 will determine whether they can get the # 1 seed.

 

[daver]

Assuming the Bills beat both the Chargers & Pats, if Miami loses at least 1 of the next 2 then Week 18 will be for the AFC East title. If the 'Fins can beat Dallas & Baltimore they will clinch the AFC East & week 18 will determine whether they can get the # 1 seed.

Would love to see a Baltimore loss to SF and a Dolphin loss to the the Cowboys next week which would make the Baltimore/Miami game vitally important for the #1 seeding and potentially brings the Bills back in for a Division Title showdown and possible #2 seed in the last week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Doing this from home instead of at work with my 3 monitors (I'm off this week), so we'll see how this goes.

11-6 will be good enough for everyone except for Buffalo and Cincinnati, and even they have to have about 15 consecutive results go against them for it not to be good. Only one result is different - in both cases Indy, Cleveland, and Jacksonville have to finish 11-6, but the difference is if Miami finishes 12-5 Buffalo misses, if Miami finishes 11-6 Cincinnati misses. (this is assuming both the Bills and Bengals ALSO win out)

The result of that is interestingly we have 7 teams that control their own destiny for the playoffs, but they are not the current 7 playoff teams - as Houston does and Cincinnati does not. Furthermore, Houston controls Buffalo and Cincinnati's destiny in that if they win out, Buffalo and Cincinnati then WOULD control their own destiny.

AFTER WEEK 15: (a - eliminated from home field advantage; d - eliminated from division; x - clinched playoff spot)
1. x-Baltimore - 11-3
2. Miami - 10-4
3. Kansas City - 9-5 (AFC West Leader)
4. Jacksonville - 8-6 (AFC South Leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over IND and HOU)
5. Cleveland - 9-5
6. d-Cincinnati - 8-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over IND and BUF)
7. Indianapolis - 8-6 (Holds H2H division tiebreaker over HOU) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over BUF)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Houston - 8-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over BUF)
9. Buffalo - 8-6
10. d-Pittsburgh - 7-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN)
11. a-Denver - 7-7
12. a-Las Vegas - 6-8
12. d-LA Chargers - 5-9 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over LV) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ and TEN)
ELIMINATED: New England (3-11), NY Jets (5-9), Tennessee (5-9)

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Miami controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 16:
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a loss and either a BAL or KC win.

- Jacksonville will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss and either a HOU or IND win.
- Indianapolis will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss.
- Houston will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss.

- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss and a BUF win.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss and either a BUF win or a MIA loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and any of: a JAX loss, a BUF loss, an IND loss, or a CLE loss,
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and any of: a JAX loss, a CIN loss, an IND loss, or a CLE loss.
- Pittsburgh will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, IND+HOU loss, a BUF loss, and a KC win.


CLINCHING AND ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 16:
- Buffalo will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss, MIA win, BAL win, or JAX loss OR BAL clinches SoV tiebreaker over BUF.
- Houston will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss, BUF loss, MIA win, or BAL win.
- Indianapolis will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss, MIA win, or BAL win.
- Cleveland will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss and either a MIA win or a BUF+IND loss
- Jacksonville will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss, MIA win, BAL win, BUF loss, or BAL clinches SoV tiebreaker over JAX.
- Kansas City will be eliminated from home field advantage with a loss and either a MIA or BAL win.

- Baltimore will clinch the AFC North with a win and a CLE loss.
- Miami will clinch the AFC East with a win and a BUF loss
- Kansas City will clinch the AFC West with a win.
- Las Vegas will be eliminated from AFC West contention AND wild card contention with a loss.
- Denver will be eliminated from AFC West contention with a KC win.
- Buffalo will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss and a MIA win
- Cleveland will be eliminated from AFC North contention with a loss and a BAL win

- Miami will clinch a wild card with a win
- Cleveland will clinch a wild card with a win and any of the following: (1)BUF+IND+DEN loss and MIA win, (2)BUF+DEN+PIT loss and MIA win, (3)IND+DEN+PIT loss and MIA win, (4)JAX+DEN+PIT loss and MIA OR IND win (5)BUF+JAX+PIT+LV loss and IND win (6)BUF+JAX+PIT loss and IND+MIA win.
- The LA Chargers will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, JAX win, or JAX clinches SoV over LAC (this is almost certain to happen sooner or later)
- As noted above, Las Vegas will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Week 17 clinching scenarios:

 

[PanthersPens62]

I think Buffalo will clinch based on scenario #1. However just for shit & giggles it would be great if Cincy beats KC & one or both of LV & Denver win (Denver had better be able to beat the Hockey Stick at home) just to see the Chiefs having to sweat out week 18 just to make the playoffs.

 

[hatterson]

So to clear up the Bills a bit and ignoring ties it's:

1.) Win

2.) 2 or more of:
- PIT loss
- CIN loss
- JAX loss or (HOU and IND losses)


Also kinda nuts that Cleveland is still alive for the #1 seed but isn't yet locked into the playoffs and what they need to get there isn't even that nuts.
- Beat Jets and Bengals this week and next
- Miami win over Baltimore this week
- Buffalo win over Miami next week
- Pittsburgh win over Baltimore next week

 

[LT]

HOU vs. IND in Week 18 could be a de facto playoff game.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Little late, but man what a bloodbath for the contenders last week. We're left with the Colts in the 7 seed but not controlling their own destiny (because if the Colts/Bengals win out and the Steelers don't, then the Bengals win that tiebreaker on H2H). We do, however, still have 7 teams controlling their own destiny because the Texans play the Colts and thus can pass them - and also controls the H2H against both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Also, I know we have the clinching scenarios above, but this will be the tie-less verison (and also include elimination scenarios)

AFTER WEEK 15: (a - eliminated from home field advantage; d - eliminated from division; x - clinched playoff spot)
1. x-Baltimore - 12-3
2. x-Miami - 11-4
3. Kansas City - 9-6 (AFC West Leader)
4. Jacksonville - 8-7 (AFC South Leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over IND and HOU)
5. Cleveland - 10-5
6. a-Buffalo - 9-6
7. a-Indianapolis - 8-7 (Holds H2H division tiebreaker over HOU) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over PIT)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. a-Houston - 8-7 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over PIT)
9. d-Pittsburgh - 8-7 (Holds H2H divisional tiebreaker over CIN)
10. d-Cincinnati - 8-7
11. a-Las Vegas - 7-8 (Holds H2H divisional tiebreaker over DEN)
12. a-Denver - 7-8
ELIMINATED: New England (4-11), NY Jets (6-9), Tennessee (5-10), LA Chargers (5-10)

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Miami controls their own destiny for home field advantage
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for a wild card.
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card.

POSSIBLE CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- The loser of Miami/Baltimore will no longer control their own destiny for home field advantage.

- Jacksonville will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss and a IND or HOU win.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss
- Indianapolis will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss
- Houston will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss

- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and two of the following: (1)CIN win, (2)PIT win, (3)JAX and (IND or HOU) win.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss
- Indianapolis will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and a CIN or BUF loss.
- Pittsburgh will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and either a JAX loss, BUF loss, or an IND+HOU loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and two of the following: (1)JAX loss, PIT+HOU, loss OR IND+HOU loss, (2)BUF loss, (3)PIT loss

CLINCHING AND ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17:
- Baltimore will clinch homefield advantage and the AFC North with a win.
- Miami will be eliminated from homefield advantage with a loss.
- Cleveland will be eliinated from homefield advantage and the AFC North with a BAL win or a loss.

- Baltimore will clinch the AFC North with a CLE loss
- Miami will clinch the AFC East with a win or a BUF loss
- Kansas City will clinch the AFC West with a win or a DEN and LV loss
- Jacksonville will clinch the AFC South with a win, HOU loss, and IND loss
- Buffalo will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss or a MIA win
- Indianapolis will be eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss and a JAX win
- Houston will be eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss and either a JAX or IND win.
- Las Vegas will be eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss or a KC win
- Denver will be eliminated from AFC West and contention and with a loss or a KC win.

- Cleveland will clinch a playoff spot with a win, BUF loss, PIT loss, JAX loss, or an IND and HOU loss
- Buffalo will clinch a playoff spot with a win and two of the following: (1)CIN loss, (2)PIT loss, (3)JAX loss or IND+HOU loss
- Denver is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss OR 3 of the following: (1)PIT win, (2)KC win, (3)BUF win, (4)JAX loss and a IND+HOU win.
- Las Vegas will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- Cincinnati will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, BUF win, and PIT win.
- Pittsburgh will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, IND win, BUF win, and either (1)a HOU win and DEN loss, (2)a JAX win and DEN loss, or (3)a HOU+KC win and JAX loss
- Houston will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, IND win, JAX win, and either (1)a BUF win, or (2)a CIN win and a DEN+PIT loss

 

[Jovavic]

HOU vs. IND in Week 18 could be a de facto playoff game.

Wife and I might go, Indy is only 3 hours away, Texans gotta take care of the Titans first though

 

[hockeykicker]

So Pitt only gets in if they win and Indy/Houston tie?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So Pitt only gets in if they win and Indy/Houston tie?

No they can get in with a win if BUF loses too.

 

[JTBF81]

So Pitt only gets in if they win and Indy/Houston tie?

Pitt is in with a win+one of the following:
1. Buffalo loss vs Miami
2. Jax loss or tie
3. Houston/Indy tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Pitt is in with a win+one of the following:
1. Buffalo loss vs Miami
2. Jax loss or tie
3. Houston/Indy tie

They also can get in with a loss if Jacksonville loses and Denver wins. That would create a 3 team tiebreaker for 7 between PIT/JAX/DEN which PIT would win by strength of victory, essentially eliminating Jacksonville's H2H win over them.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Alright being a different week this is going to be a bit of a different format:

Baltimore has clinched the #1 seed.

The winner of Buffalo/Miami will be the #2 seed.

Kansas City has clinched the #3 seed.

Jacksonville will clinch the #4 seed with a win.
- Else the winner of the Houston/Indianapolis game clinches the #4 seed. (If tie, IND wins)

Cleveland has clinched the #5 seed.

If Buffalo wins, Miami clinches the #6 seed.
If Miami and Jacksonville win, the winner of Houston/Indianapolis will be the #6 seed
If Miami wins and Jacksonville loses, Pittsburgh will be the #6 seed with a win
- Else Buffalo will be the #6 seed.

There's 4 distinct divisonal results that will effect the 7 seed:
JAX/MIA win: -Pittsburgh will be the #7 seed with a win, else Buffalo is the #7 seed
JAX/BUF win: -WInner of Houston/Indianapoilis is the #7 seed.
TEN/MIA win: -If PIT wins, BUF is the #7 seed. If PIT AND DEN loses, JAX is the #7 seed. If PIT loses and DEN wins, PIT is the #7 seed
TEN/BUF win: -If PIT wins, PIT is the #7 seed. If PIT and DEN loses, JAX is the #7 seed. If PIT loses and DEN wins, PIT is the #7 seed.