AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

Well, the leaves are turning and we're nearing the halfway point of the NFL season, so it's once again time for a way too early look at the playoff picture in each conference.

AFTER WEEK 8:
1. Kansas City - 6-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over JAX and BAL, holds strength of victory tiebreaker over MIA)
2. Miami - 6-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over JAX and BAL)
3. Jacksonville - 6-2 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL)
4. Baltimore - 6-2
5. Buffalo - 5-3
6. Pittsburgh - 4-3 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over CLE and CIN, holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
7. Cleveland - 4-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CIN, holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
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8. NY Jets - 4-3 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
9. Cincinnati - 4-3
10. Houston - 3-4 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over TEN, holds conference record tiebreaker over LAC)
11. Tennessee - 3-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LAC)
12. LA Chargers - 3-4
13. Indianapolis - 3-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV)
14. Las Vegas - 3-5 (Holds divisional H2H tiebreaker over DEN)
15. Denver - 3-5
16. New England - 2-6

CONTROL OF DESTINY: Note: Only the highest level (among 1st round bye, division title, and making the playoffs) a team controls their own destiny for will be listed here - if a team controls their own destiny for the first round bye, they also control their own destiny to make the playoffs and win their division). A team controls their own destiny if they obtain a certain spot 100% of the time if they win every game for the rest of the year.

- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot


POTENTIAL CHANGES OF DESTINY IN WEEK 9:
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss.
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss.
- Baltimore will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss and a MIA win
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and a BAL win.
- Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and either a BAL or PIT win.
- Tennessee will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss
- The LA Chargers will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win and a KC loss.
- Las Vegas will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win and a KC loss
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss, KC win, BUF win, BAL win, and LAC win.
- Tennessee will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss, MIA win, BUF win, and BAL win
- The LA Chargers will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss, BUF win, and MIA win.
- Indianapolis will gain control of their own destiny with a win, and any of a NYJ loss, BUF loss, MIA loss, or CLE loss.
- Las Vegas will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and either a BUF loss or BAL, CLE, AND PIT losses.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a CIN, MIA, NYJ, BAL, and PIT loss.

Click to read more...

 

[PanthersPens62]

Glad to see this back again!

Needless to say, this Sunday's tilt in Germany could go a long way in determining the #1 seed in the AFC. After this game, The Dolphins have a bunch of very winnable games all the way up to week 16 when they end with a 3 game gauntlet of Dallas (H) Baltimore (A) and Buffalo (H)

 

[Halladay]

All 4 AFC North teams would currently be in the playoffs currently.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Chainsaw ,I forbid you to update this thread until Buffalo is back in.

 

[Halladay]

Chainsaw ,I forbid you to update this thread until Buffalo is back in.

The 2024 edition it is.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Chainsaw ,I forbid you to update this thread until Buffalo is back in.

Does it make you feel better that they still control their own destinies? It's no fun for me doing these after a loss either you know ;-)

AFTER WEEK 9:
1. Kansas City - 7-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore)
2. Baltimore - 7-2
3. Jacksonville - 6-2
4. Miami - 6-3
5. Pittsburgh - 5-3 (Holds Divisional record tiebreaker over CLE and CIN)
6. Cleveland - 5-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CIN)
7. Cincinnati - 5-3
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8. Buffalo - 5-4
9. Houston - 4-4 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over NYJ and LAC)
10. LA Chargers - 4-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
11. NY Jets - 4-4
12. Indianapolis - 4-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV)
13. Las Vegas - 4-5
14. Tennessee - 3-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over DEN)
15. Denver - 3-5
16. New England - 2-7

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Houston controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Las Vegas controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.


POTENTIAL CHANGES OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10:
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC North with a loss.
- Pittsburgh will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC North with a loss and a BAL win.
- Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC North with a loss
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC East with a loss
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss
- Houston will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss
- Tennessee will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss.
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and either a BAL, CIN, or PIT win.
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss.
- Las Vegas will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss.
- Tennessee will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and either a BAL or CIN loss.

 

[The Note]

The North is interesting. I think you could make a reasonable argument Cincy is a top 5 team in the league at this point but is in last because of the hole they dug themselves to start. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are very similar in that their offenses don’t inspire much confidence but their defenses are strong enough to keep them in most games.

I still think Buffalo will make it in and Pittsburgh falls out. I don’t know that you can count on Buffalo to make much noise in the playoffs given the state of their defense, but I just don’t see them missing entirely. I know Tomlin’s teams find a way to win all these miserable games but at some point not having a functional offense has to matter.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

The North is interesting. I think you could make a reasonable argument Cincy is a top 5 team in the league at this point but is in last because of the hole they dug themselves to start. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are very similar in that their offenses don’t inspire much confidence but their defenses are strong enough to keep them in most games.

I still think Buffalo will make it in and Pittsburgh falls out. I don’t know that you can count on Buffalo to make much noise in the playoffs given the state of their defense, but I just don’t see them missing entirely. I know Tomlin’s teams find a way to win all these miserable games but at some point not having a functional offense has to matter.

Eh we'll see but our schedule is harsh

After the next 2 against Den and NYJ we have this gauntlet

@Eagles
BYE
@Chiefs
Cowboys
@Chargers

Then we finish with the Pats ( who we already lost to ) and Dolphins.

Brutal.. These next two games are must wins before we head into that 4 game stretch against those teams. It's going to be a uphill battle. The good news is that we finally get our bye right before the Chiefs game. Bad news is that we still have 3 more games til we get there lol. This late bye is a nuisance especially with how banged we are. I'm not sure it's in the cards this year but it ain't over til it's over!

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Pittsburgh has 4 divisional games left. They might win one of them. Still not sold on them. Out gauned in every game so far and winning because of opportunistic turnovers. Still think they finish with 8 or 9 wins

 

[adsfan]

Pittsburgh has 4 divisional games left. They might win one of them. Still not sold on them. Out gauned in every game so far and winning because of opportunistic turnovers. Still think they finish with 8 or 9 wins

Green Bay needs a win to be 4-5 instead of 3-6 or I think that their season is over.

At halftime it is Steelers 17-13.

The officials blew a call in the second quarter. Pittsburgh threw a lateral behind a receiver and Gary of Green Bay recovered the ball. The officials ruled it an incomplete pass. The Packers challenged it and the officials DID NOT overturn the incorrect call. It could have been GB 20-17 or Steelers 17-16 after the very short field.

The Side Judge was clearly out of position on the play. I don't know what the other officials have for an excuse since their call was clearly wrong even after review.

 

[Halladay]

I think Boyd dropping that potential touchdown pass cost the Bengals a playoff appearance.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Good day for the Dolphins with losses by the Ravens & Jags. KC is the last remaining 2 loss AFC team.

 

[The Note]

Eh we'll see but our schedule is harsh

After the next 2 against Den and NYJ we have this gauntlet

@Eagles
BYE
@Chiefs
Cowboys
@Chargers

Then we finish with the Pats ( who we already lost to ) and Dolphins.

Brutal.. These next two games are must wins before we head into that 4 game stretch against those teams. It's going to be a uphill battle. The good news is that we finally get our bye right before the Chiefs game. Bad news is that we still have 3 more games til we get there lol. This late bye is a nuisance especially with how banged we are. I'm not sure it's in the cards this year but it ain't over til it's over!

I hear ya. I just think the offense/Allen is good enough to get in there, even if it doesn’t feel the same as the past couple years. I know this might ring hollow from a Chiefs fan but I’d still take the Bills over all but maybe 3 other teams in the conference. The AFC is certainly bizarre this year so who really knows how it’ll shake out.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Eh we'll see but our schedule is harsh

After the next 2 against Den and NYJ we have this gauntlet

@Eagles
BYE
@Chiefs
Cowboys
@Chargers

Then we finish with the Pats ( who we already lost to ) and Dolphins.

Brutal.. These next two games are must wins before we head into that 4 game stretch against those teams. It's going to be a uphill battle. The good news is that we finally get our bye right before the Chiefs game. Bad news is that we still have 3 more games til we get there lol. This late bye is a nuisance especially with how banged we are. I'm not sure it's in the cards this year but it ain't over til it's over!

With a 2-5 conference record, they pretty much now will have to steal the division from my Dolphins (meaning Miami losing games they will be expected to win) to make the playoffs barring them somehow getting thru that gauntlet unscathed.

 

[The Note]

I hear ya. I just think the offense/Allen is good enough to get in there, even if it doesn’t feel the same as the past couple years. I know this might ring hollow from a Chiefs fan but I’d still take the Bills over all but maybe 3 other teams in the conference. The AFC is certainly bizarre this year so who really knows how it’ll shake out.

Ok maybe they won’t figure it out.

 

[Halladay]

The New York Times playoff predictor now gives the Bills a 19% chance to make the playoffs. They at the very least have to go 5-3. They have the Bengals at 44%.

 

[Chris5225]

The New York Times playoff predictor now gives the Bills a 19% chance to make the playoffs. They at the very least have to go 5-3. They have the Bengals at 44%.

They definitely won't go 5-3.

 

[StreetHawk]

Pre-season favorites to make the PO struggling in Buffalo, LAC, Jets (due to AR injury), Bengals (Burrow calf injury).

 

[The Note]

Buffalo and Cincy (to a lesser degree) having basically no room for error just to make the playoffs by week 11 wasn’t something I saw coming.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

We're cooked... We would need a miracle.... Better regroup next year. Not even that mad. That too many men penalty was a perfect encapsulation of our season lol....

 

[Peat]

Pittsburgh has 4 divisional games left. They might win one of them. Still not sold on them. Out gauned in every game so far and winning because of opportunistic turnovers. Still think they finish with 8 or 9 wins

They're a pretty difficult to love team right now but I think the way this team hunts down turnovers - while focusing heavily on avoiding their own - does make it kind of credible they can beat more teams and get in. They get hurt badly by elite out of division teams, but they beat most ordinary teams and have done so since the bye last season - and know how to drag other AFC North teams down to their level for a rock fight.

I don't want to be too high on them, but they've been sustaining this recipe for a long time now.

 

[Unholy Diver]

Pre-season favorites to make the PO struggling in Buffalo, LAC, Jets (due to AR injury), Bengals (Burrow calf injury).

Further proof that you should never ever trust the Chargers or Jets

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Further proof that you should never ever trust the Chargers or Jets

Facts

 

[StreetHawk]

Further proof that you should never ever trust the Chargers or Jets

Crazy to think that had the Raiders beaten the Bears they would be 6-4 and in the PO mix. To make it, likely need 10-7 and win out on the tie breakers. They would still have LAC and Den at home which they would need to win to get to 8 wins. KC twice, so who knows. Miami, Indy, Minny the other remaining 3 games. Indy and Min are likely the best targets. So, 10 wins was possible.

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 10:
1. Kansas City - 7-2
2. Baltimore - 7-3
3. Jacksonville - 6-3 (Holds SoV tiebreaker over MIA) (AFC South Leader)
4. Miami - 6-3 (AFC East leader)
5. Pittsburgh - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CLE)
6. Cleveland - 6-3
7. Houston 5-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CIN)
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8. Cincinnati - 5-4
9. Indianapolis - 5-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over BUF and LV)
10. Buffalo - 5-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over LV)
11. Las Vegas - 5-5
12. LA Chargers - 4-5 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over DEN, then holds H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
13. NY Jets - 4-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over DEN)
14. Denver - 4-5
15. Tennessee - 3-6
16. New England - 2-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for home field advantage.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Cleveland controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Las Vegas controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POSSIBLE CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 11:
- The loser of Pittsburgh/Cleveland will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC North.
- Houston will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC South with a loss and a JAX win
- The NY Jets will lose control of their own destiny in the AFC East AND the wild card with a loss.
- Baltimore will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC North with a win and a CLE loss.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss
- Las Vegas will gain control of their own destiny in the AFC West with a win and a KC loss.
- Las Vegas will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss.
- The LA Chargers will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and a CLE win.
- Denver will lose control of their own destiny with a loss
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and either a JAX/HOU loss.
- Tennessee can gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win and either a BUF/MIA loss.

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 11