TatteredTornNFrayed
very angry indeed
- Jan 15, 2008
- 800
- 363
They assume every team that's winning while outshot is lucky and will eventually start to lose, which is absurd.
I haven't read the whole thread yet, but wanted to say I strongly agree with the absurdity of basing so much on just shot counts.
And I think a review of all teams winning percentages when Outshooting and when Outshot By, there generally has seemed to be pretty convincing evidence for quite a few recent years that, if anything, more teams win when being outshot than the other way around.
So that right there tells you that stats based only on shots in a game already have some major flaws, especially if they aggregate them over the whole game, and don't take situation into account.
I've read several arguments how they've statistically determined that shot quality is not repeatable, so that is sort of their argument why shot counts are so important, but I don't think those statistical arguments ever quite convinced me. I'll admit I'm no statistical expert, but the analysis always seemed a bit circular to me, and relies heavily on some questionable assumptions.
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