News Article: advanced stats at 50 game mark

[Lord Stan 2020]

http://www.rawcharge.com/2014/1/24/5340618/2013-2014-lightning-advanced-statistics-through-game-50

pretty good article l I found off facebook account.

Click to read more...

 

[The Macho King]

PDO is a dumb stat.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

PDO is a dumb stat.

I think most stats are dumb in ways especially looking over entire team and not individuals but thought was pretty well written and interesting.

 

[The Macho King]

I think most stats are dumb in ways especially looking over entire team and not individuals but thought was pretty well written and interesting.

Oh, wasn't criticizing the link. And honestly, Corsi and Fenwick do have pretty decent value in determining on ice performance. PDO is just incredibly simplistic, and ignores some rather... obvious cases that could be made. The argument is that it regresses to 100%...
I think it's overly simplistic. I'd say the better argument would be to use it as a metric of overall team effectiveness 5 on 5. You could look at it and say "wow, this team is really good 5 on 5 - they get good goaltending and their players hit twine". Instead, in this attempt at moneyballing hockey, we look at it and say "IMPOSSIBRU!!!! ALL TEMAS MUST BE AT 100".

I would guess that, historically, if you look at PDO numbers, you'll find not that they "regress to the mean" as much as "holy ****, good teams have good PDO, bad teams have bad PDO", and maybe some outliers in either direction for teams that have bad PDO but only allow ten shots a game, or a team has good PDO but only gets 10 shots a game, etc.

 

[walle]

Fenwick for percentage 5v5 (shots+missed shots)

Palat 51.7% - Johnson 51.5% - Marty 51.4%
Hedman 54.0% - Salo 54.8%

Killorn 51.3% - Flip 51.8% - Purcell 54.0%
Carle 49.2% - Gudas 48.5%

Brown 54.3% - Nate 53.4% - Kucherov 54.4%
Brewer 49.9% - Barberio 53.8%

Malone 51.2% - Crombeen 49.2% - Panik 47.8%
Sustr 48.9% - Cote 60.6%

Pyatt 45.0% - Connolly 50.3% - Stamkos 50.8%
Aulie 42.7% - Korobov 42.6%

Tyrell 37.1% - Labrie 36.0%

 

[DFC]

Another good spot to state we need Kucherov on the PP more. Last in the league in PP SOG.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Oh, wasn't criticizing the link. And honestly, Corsi and Fenwick do have pretty decent value in determining on ice performance. PDO is just incredibly simplistic, and ignores some rather... obvious cases that could be made. The argument is that it regresses to 100%...
I think it's overly simplistic. I'd say the better argument would be to use it as a metric of overall team effectiveness 5 on 5. You could look at it and say "wow, this team is really good 5 on 5 - they get good goaltending and their players hit twine". Instead, in this attempt at moneyballing hockey, we look at it and say "IMPOSSIBRU!!!! ALL TEMAS MUST BE AT 100".

I would guess that, historically, if you look at PDO numbers, you'll find not that they "regress to the mean" as much as "holy ****, good teams have good PDO, bad teams have bad PDO", and maybe some outliers in either direction for teams that have bad PDO but only allow ten shots a game, or a team has good PDO but only gets 10 shots a game, etc.

you have a point there.

but if PDO has been exceptionally high, say over 102% or so, it has come down. same thing if it has been 98% or so. some teams are able to keep it little higher. like one would expect from teams that have very skilled players and/or good goaltending. bruins, canucks, pens. great teams can keep it over 100 and bad teams can't get it there. but long-term, those teams also have good fenwick/corsi.

i haven't read other stuff from raw charge to now what they mean with bishop coming crashing down to earth. drop would be considered likely i guess but i wouldn't be shocked if he maintains that or close to it and i'd expect his sv% to be well above average by season's end. i don't see tampa's PDO being that high that it's totally unsustainable. there seems to be always few teams that have similar or even higher, every season.

 

[walle]

Tampa forwards vs rest of the league

stats

lets see where guys rank in 5v5 points/60 (min 300mins played which includes 349 forwards)

35 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 2,28
45 PALAT, ONDREJ 2,16
56 JOHNSON, TYLER 2,08
113 FILPPULA, VALTTERI 1,78
123 KILLORN, ALEX 1,73
145 PURCELL, TEDDY 1,65
168 KUCHEROV, NIKITA 1,56
203 MALONE, RYAN 1,44
212 BROWN, J.T. 1,42
271 CROMBEEN, BJ 1,15
313 PANIK, RICHARD 0,84
323 THOMPSON, NATE 0,77

5v5 On-ice Goals for per 20 minutes (GF20)

30 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 1,102
47 JOHNSON, TYLER 1,013
49 PALAT, ONDREJ 1,006
58 KILLORN, ALEX 0,990
109 PURCELL, TEDDY 0,854
157 FILPPULA, VALTTERI 0,774
170 KUCHEROV, NIKITA 0,751
201 MALONE, RYAN 0,694
243 BROWN, J.T. 0,630
285 THOMPSON, NATE 0,549
323 CROMBEEN, BJ 0,446
328 PANIK, RICHARD 0,421

5v5 On-ice goals against per 20 minutes (GA20)

1 KUCHEROV, NIKITA 0,173
4 BROWN, J.T. 0,315
6 CROMBEEN, BJ 0,382
15 THOMPSON, NATE 0,439
23 PALAT, ONDREJ 0,460
30 JOHNSON, TYLER 0,492
51 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 0,563
89 FILPPULA, VALTTERI 0,619
138 KILLORN, ALEX 0,688
148 PURCELL, TEDDY 0,701
185 MALONE, RYAN 0,747
240 PANIK, RICHARD 0,842

On-ice 5v5 GF% = % of goals scored while player is on the ice that were scored by his team = Goals For / (Goals For + Goals Against)

1 KUCHEROV, NIKITA 0.812
7 PALAT, ONDREJ 0,686
10 JOHNSON, TYLER 0,673
13 BROWN, J.T. 0,667
16 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 0,662
65 KILLORN, ALEX 0,590
96 THOMPSON, NATE 0,556
97 FILPPULA, VALTTERI 0,556
105 PURCELL, TEDDY 0,549
118 CROMBEEN, BJ 0,538
204 MALONE, RYAN 0,481
333 PANIK, RICHARD 0,333

 

[2016cupwinners]

A pet peeve of mine is the giveaway takeaway ratio. Giveaways, depending on how often they handle the puck, gives me an idea of how careful they are with the puck. Takeaways gives me an idea how well they use their stick to pressure puck carriers.

Hedman 28Gva 27Tka
Carle 26Gva 19Tka
Salo 17Gva 12Tka
Barberio 21Gva 8Tka
Gudas 29Gva 10Tka
Brewer 31Gva 9Tka
Sustr 22Gva 2Tka

Some good Dmen around the league:
Andrej Sekera 30Gva 57Tka
Alex Pietrangelo 25Gva 24Tka
Ryan Suter 28Gva 26Tka
Duncan Keith 47Gva 41Tka
Ryan McDonagh 54Gva 38Tka
Erik Karlsson 81Gva 51Tka
Shea Weber 32Gva 22Tka

Looking at this, I'd say our D have done a good job of limiting giveaways, but other than Hedman and Carle who look good here, our D could do a better job of keeping their sticks near the puck to create more turnovers.

 

[DFC]

A pet peeve of mine is the giveaway takeaway ratio. Giveaways, depending on how often they handle the puck, gives me an idea of how careful they are with the puck. Takeaways gives me an idea how well they use their stick to pressure puck carriers.

Hedman 28Gva 27Tka
Carle 26Gva 19Tka
Salo 17Gva 12Tka
Barberio 21Gva 8Tka
Gudas 29Gva 10Tka
Brewer 31Gva 9Tka
Sustr 22Gva 2Tka

Some good Dmen around the league:
Andrej Sekera 30Gva 57Tka
Alex Pietrangelo 25Gva 24Tka
Ryan Suter 28Gva 26Tka
Duncan Keith 47Gva 41Tka
Ryan McDonagh 54Gva 38Tka
Erik Karlsson 81Gva 51Tka
Shea Weber 32Gva 22Tka

Looking at this, I'd say our D have done a good job of limiting giveaways, but other than Hedman and Carle who look good here, our D could do a better job of keeping their sticks near the puck to create more turnovers.

Yeah, but those are the elite defensemen in the league, and our own elite defenseman, Hedman, is pretty comparable to those guys. I think the only way you can make a statement like that is if you're comparing our #2 to the average #2, #3 to #3 etc.

 

[91Stammer*]

I don't think our defense is that bad, but we need more strong prospects in our D pool. I wish we could have taken Jones over drouin. It would make our top pair really threatening for years.

Still am happy with Drouin.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

Yeah, but those are the elite defensemen in the league, and our own elite defenseman, Hedman, is pretty comparable to those guys. I think the only way you can make a statement like that is if you're comparing our #2 to the average #2, #3 to #3 etc.

What really bothers the hell out of me is look at sustr. He had a ton of take aways I saw lol. Yet here has two so how the hell do the keep track is it even right or close to right you got to ask this question for sure when he has 22 give aways and 2 take aways lol.

I saw him taking pucks from guys. I just dont know. He took a lot of pucks away on boards etc.. These numbers are skewed lol to be honest.

I take into effect the overall picture though hits blocks give aways take aways plus minus look at other guys on their teams line ups etc. see where they stand.

So can say hey panik started off like hell but at end had improved good sign. Connolly didnt bring offense but was solid in defensive zone etc.

I want to know these things myself. I also use all the charts stats for older guys see the drop off that really doesnt lie if is progressing at a rate and doubles or triples per year? Maybe time to get rid of that guy as quickly as possible lol.

I want guys who respect the puck and dont cause odd man rushes. So some turnovers penalties are worse than others.

Killorn had bad habits those seem gone? Etc.

Eye test is always the best of course. Yet before giving up on a brewer who stat wise has came back this year and performed up to almost his past self!! After a couple year major drop or malone who just continues to drop off the planet you got to do eye test first than make sure stats agree. Malone must go. Brewer is ok at 5-6 but his contract bites. He isnt continuing to get worse though which is AWESOME