Advanced stats and MacKinnon

Foppa · Apr 30, 2015

As I was very on and off following the team this year, let me ask the die-hards this...did Nathan MacKinnon really face the hardest QoC in the NHL this year of any forward in the league?

Between the lack of points, threats of 4th line ice time and stupid trade rumors on the main board - I had just assumed this season could be chalked up to a sophomore slump.

Yet...the advanced stats seem to indicate that Nate had a very admirable year. His quality of competition is apparently the highest in the league, his Corsi relative is extremely good and he didn't even get sheltered with a ton of offensive zone starts, basically ranking in the middle of the pack.

The Avs are a team that advanced stats usually HATES. So somebody explain this chart to me. I may be totally fumbling my limited #fancystats knowledge.

InjuredChoker · Apr 30, 2015

there are sill good fancy stats players on bad fancy stats team (taylor hall has been fancy stat darling for a long time) for example. in some sense it's easier to look in fancy stats on a bad team.

it helps that mackinnon played a lot of his minutes with landeskog who is of course good at driving the play. mackinnon is also good at carrying the puck and getting zone entries with puck control that helps getting shot attempts over dumping the puck. he also shoots quite a lot which helps a little.

i have to check the QoC part.

where is the chart from?

Foppa · Apr 30, 2015

InjuredChoker said:
there are sill good fancy stats players on bad fancy stats team (taylor hall has been fancy stat darling for a long time) for example. in some sense it's easier to look in fancy stats on a bad team.

it helps that mackinnon played a lot of his minutes with landeskog who is of course good at driving the play. mackinnon is also good at carrying the puck and getting zone entries with puck control that helps getting shot attempts over dumping the puck. he also shoots quite a lot which helps a little.

i have to check the QoC part.

where is the chart from?

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usag...siRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

Stories · Apr 30, 2015

Soo.... Gaustad doesn't ever get offensive starts. And Yakupov only gets offensive stats yet always loses possession....

tigervixxxen · Apr 30, 2015

What 4th line ice time? Not this MacKinnon.

He played the majority of the second half before his injury with Landeskog and O'Reilly and they were taking the toughest matchups. I don't know about highest in the league or whatever but it doesn't surprise me his QoC was high.

The whole team couldn't score the first 2 months of the season and the PP sucked all year. I don't even consider it a "sophomore slump" because he wasn't ever any worse than the others.

Boy, I bet it would be nice to get 70% O zone starts like some guys get.

Foppa · Apr 30, 2015

Stories said:
Soo.... Gaustad doesn't ever get offensive starts. And Yakupov only gets offensive stats yet always loses possession....

Sounds about right?

Foppa · Apr 30, 2015

tigervixxxen said:
What 4th line ice time? Not this MacKinnon.

He played the majority of the second half before his injury with Landeskog and O'Reilly and they were taking the toughest matchups. I don't know about highest in the league or whatever but it doesn't surprise me his QoC was high.

The whole team couldn't score the first 2 months of the season and the PP sucked all year. I don't even consider it a "sophomore slump" because he wasn't ever any worse than the others.

I'm not saying MacKinnon was poor this year...like I said I didn't follow enough. Just that the chicken little crowd on this forum and idiots on the main forums seem quick to dismiss Nate's potential from "surefire franchise superstar" to "player 'x' (who you wouldn't have even dare mention in the same breath as Mac a year ago) is going to be better than MacKinnon, because points.

InjuredChoker · Apr 30, 2015

ok so mack does have highest corsi QoC per behindthenet. there's some minor differences in how stats are counted (behindthenet includes EN situations most others don't) in different sites but he seems to be up there in other sites.

i think QoC by ice time is better though. as corsi doesn't nearly always match with what player is best or how hard the competition is (there are some other reasons also why i don't like QoC metrics that much). coaches usually give their best players most ice time, so i think that's why it's fairly good measurement. of course coaches might make mistakes there (hello julien!). he doesn't crack the top 60 in QoC measured by ice time and was 6th on the avs.

StayAtHomeAv · May 1, 2015

InjuredChoker said:
ok so mack does have highest corsi QoC per behindthenet. there's some minor differences in how stats are counted (behindthenet includes EN situations most others don't) in different sites but he seems to be up there in other sites.

i think QoC by ice time is better though. as corsi doesn't nearly always match with what player is best or how hard the competition is (there are some other reasons also why i don't like QoC metrics that much). coaches usually give their best players most ice time, so i think that's why it's fairly good measurement. of course coaches might make mistakes there (hello julien!). he doesn't crack the top 60 in QoC measured by ice time and was 6th on the avs.

Totally agree about the ice time being the better judge of QoC. What's a good site that uses TOI? The ones I occasionally look at seem to be based on +\-.

InjuredChoker · May 1, 2015

StayAtHomeAv said:
Totally agree about the ice time being the better judge of QoC. What's a good site that uses TOI? The ones I occasionally look at seem to be based on +\-.

war-on-ice.

The Kingslayer · May 1, 2015

I wonder what the advanced stats would have told us about Peter Forsberg that my 2 eyes couldnt.

InjuredChoker · May 1, 2015

The Kingslayer said:
I wonder what the advanced stats would have told us about Peter Forsberg that my 2 eyes couldnt.

forsberg was probably an absolute beast in corsi.

The Kingslayer · May 1, 2015

InjuredChoker said:
forsberg was probably an absolute beast in corsi.

Wish we could know his numbers lol

R S · May 2, 2015

Stories said:
Soo.... Gaustad doesn't ever get offensive starts. And Yakupov only gets offensive stats yet always loses possession....

Correct.

R S · May 2, 2015

InjuredChoker said:
forsberg was probably an absolute beast in corsi.

I think he probably was too. Sakic as well.

Colorado Avalanche · May 3, 2015

Watching the games. He was awful. Whatever stats says.. He needs to figure out how to use his speed better.

cgf · May 3, 2015

What the. Do you know what the word awful means? Or did you mean that watching only the first 30 games, he, like Landy/ROR, was awful?

Colorado Avalanche · May 3, 2015

cgf said:
What the. Do you know what the word awful means? Or did you mean that watching only the first 30 games, he, like Landy/ROR, was awful?

I had really high expectations for him. He should crash the net more, instead of skating to offense zone and putting the breaks on. Nothing good comes frlm that. He couldnt even challenge struggling Duchene for #1 center spot. Yes, he was awful in my opinion compared to his first season. i was actually expecting him to get better, not worse.

Tweaky · May 3, 2015

Colorado Avalanche said:
I had really high expectations for him. He should crash the net more, instead of skating to offense zone and putting the breaks on. Nothing good comes frlm that. He couldnt even challenge struggling Duchene for #1 center spot. Yes, he was awful in my opinion compared to his first season. i was actually expecting him to get better, not worse.

He missed 18 games, which is a big part of why his points total is down. Plus he rode the train off the rails along with the rest of the forwards at the beginning of the season. The time period when he was actually at center was when Duchene was playing fairly well, so was not going to be overtaken at that point. He also made big strides in his two-way game. Yes, we all probably expected more from him. We expected more from everyone. But to say he categorically got worse is short-sighted. The league adjusted to him, and he spent the first half of the year learning how to deal with that, and the second half, when his production was ramping up, was cut short by injury.

Guenin was awful most of the time, Berra was awful (for a few games), the offense as a whole was not good...but none of them were "awful" for more than a game or two at a time. Buffalo was awful. Arizona was awful. MacK and the rest of the core forwards were below expectations...but not awful.

The Kingslayer · May 5, 2015

Colorado Avalanche said:
I had really high expectations for him. He should crash the net more, instead of skating to offense zone and putting the breaks on. Nothing good comes frlm that. He couldnt even challenge struggling Duchene for #1 center spot. Yes, he was awful in my opinion compared to his first season. i was actually expecting him to get better, not worse.

I too hated his stupid button hook thing he did. I wanted him to challenge defenders the same way he did in his rookie year.

Advanced stats and MacKinnon

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