Advanced Stats and Corsi - Another look. (Mod Warning - Keep it Civil)

[ULF_55]

Okay for you advanced stat and Corsi folks.

Click to read more...

 

[Mansfield]

Are we just supposed to be talking advanced stats here?

One thing I found interesting was that clarkson had the highest CF% on NJ last year. Obviously he's been pretty bad for us though....

 

[hatterson]

Shameless plug for the By The Numbers forums.

Also, there's a thread over there specifically related to the Leafs: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1517319

Feel free to peruse there and give thoughts here or there.

 

[samwitch]

Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are the top two D in quality of competition faced. Wow. That's not right haha, we need help.

 

[Mess]

Corsi has proven to be a useful tool when identifying strengths and weaknesses of teams and players.

Even when the Leafs were winning early on, and Power Rankings were still rankng the Leafs lower then the NHL standings because they based their playoff predictions and strengths based on Corsi.

Winning while defying the stats of being consistently outworked, outplayed and outshot will eventually play out as expected and isn't sustainable over time.

Being critical of your team even in wins has merit as there are early warning signs of pending trouble if things are not corrected.

 

[achtungbaby]

I guess the question of the day is: are we just a bad team and last year was a fluke in a lockout year? Advanced stats told us we had no business winning a lot of those games last year, just like this year. It's an important distinction because you don't bother retooling a bad club with a bad foundation, you break it down. We have to figure out what we are and fast.

 

[Mess]

I guess the question of the day is: are we just a bad team and last year was a fluke in a lockout year? Advanced stats told us we had no business winning a lot of those games last year, just like this year. It's an important distinction because you don't bother retooling a bad club with a bad foundation, you break it down. We have to figure out what we are and fast.

The cream always rises to the top.

The smaller the sample set the more volatile & inaccurate the the results.

The results of this team stats like goals for, goals against, specialty teams etc is very eerily similar to the 18-wheeler over a cliff season of 2012. A lockout shortened season simply an anomaly not allowing enough time for the cream to rise.

 

[rrc1967]

Not really advanced stats, but something i've been watching this season with the leafs. I have been for the most part less than dazzled by their record, not even mentioning the fact that they are heavily outplayed most games.

I think the leafs had alot of luck moreso than others around us this year.

If the situation was more balanced the leafs simply would not have been in a playoff hunt for the majority of the year. thinking the leafs were a top team for the majority of the season raises expectations that teams around us will continue to have poor overtime records.

consider:

The devils are 9-16, detriot is 9-14, ottawa is 8-14, carolina is 5-11.

Toronto being 14-8 in overtime has really carried this team - without overtime, Toronto has only won 24 games all season. that's just mind boggling. Consider that in the history of the leafs over a 80-82 season, there's only been a handful of teams that posted 24 wins or less. We're talking at this team has sucked as badly as some of the early 80' teams under ballard.

also curious is that Toronto is 11-1 at home in overtime, and 3-7 on the road - the only team in the league to show such a disparity.

Also even more curious is the fact that Reimer has only lost 1 overtime game and is 4-0 in the shootouts.

bernier has lost 3 times in OT 5 minute play and 4 times in shootouts.

I think bernier is 7-7 in over time, and reimer is 7-1 in overtime.

Perhaps those also blaming reimer for not making the playoffs should consider that the leafs wouldn't even be sniffing a playoff spot without him.

 

[achtungbaby]

There were a lot of warning signs that most folk didn't want to consider because it was too negative or, in advanced stats case, they simply didn't understand. Each alone proves nothing but they're a tool to use with your eyes.

 

[Faltorvo]

Not really advanced stats, but something i've been watching this season with the leafs. I have been for the most part less than dazzled by their record, not even mentioning the fact that they are heavily outplayed most games.

I think the leafs had alot of luck moreso than others around us this year.

If the situation was more balanced the leafs simply would not have been in a playoff hunt for the majority of the year. thinking the leafs were a top team for the majority of the season raises expectations that teams around us will continue to have poor overtime records.

consider:

The devils are 9-16, detriot is 9-14, ottawa is 8-14, carolina is 5-11.

Toronto being 14-8 in overtime has really carried this team - without overtime, Toronto has only won 24 games all season. that's just mind boggling. Consider that in the history of the leafs over a 80-82 season, there's only been a handful of teams that posted 24 wins or less. We're talking at this team has sucked as badly as some of the early 80' teams under ballard.

also curious is that Toronto is 11-1 at home in overtime, and 3-7 on the road - the only team in the league to show such a disparity.

Also even more curious is the fact that Reimer has only lost 1 overtime game and is 4-0 in the shootouts.

bernier has lost 3 times in OT 5 minute play and 4 times in shootouts.

I think bernier is 7-7 in over time, and reimer is 7-1 in overtime.

Perhaps those also blaming reimer for not making the playoffs should consider that the leafs wouldn't even be sniffing a playoff spot without him.

JR with .910 sv % and no Berny and this team is back to drafting top 5 just like the season before the lock out anomaly.

 

[Faltorvo]

There were a lot of warning signs that most folk didn't want to consider because it was too negative or, in advanced stats case, they simply didn't understand. Each alone proves nothing but they're a tool to use with your eyes.

It's much to hard to point these things out when they are winning.

No offense to the mods but, they do let the "haters gonna hate" mobs run amok on "the warners" when the team is winning.

You basically have to sit back and wait for the inevitable to happen first.

At least we get to see those"haters gonna hate" crew scurry off and hide and name change . Kinda like the core of this team.

 

[Mess]

There were a lot of warning signs that most folk didn't want to consider because it was too negative or, in advanced stats case, they simply didn't understand. Each alone proves nothing but they're a tool to use with your eyes.

I believe more Leaf fans will put merit into the value in advanced stats in the future as this year was a valuable learning experience that they are relevant.

There are recognizable patterns. If you're near the bottom in shots against (Leafs were 30th), that there is a likelihood you will be near the bottom in goals against, and by extension be in danger on not making the playoffs. Teams in the bottom 5 goals against seldom if ever make the playoffs.

Leafs look as poor defensively yesterday, trapped in their own zone and being outshot 41-25 like they have all year and the odds are that you are going to lose more than you win when you play like this.

This ending is really only surprising to those that believed the Leafs were beating the Corsi odds or they don't matter as opposed to those that used them to support their positions that poor play will lead to disappointing end results eventually.

 

[Daisy Jane]

It's much to hard to point these things out when they are winning.

No offense to the mods but, they do let the "haters gonna hate" mobs run amok on "the warners" when the team is winning.

You basically have to sit back and wait for the inevitable to happen first.

At least we get to see those"haters gonna hate" crew scurry off and hide and name change . Kinda like the core of this team.

that's not fair - as the mods also let "I [insert word here] told you so." on those who like to have a healthy dose of optimism

And I can, as always speak only for me - as optimistic as I was, my eyes always told me I didn't like what I saw either. We stank. I personally hoped that it was a little bit of being inexperienced, a little bit of whatever crap system Carlyle had, and a little bit of "well, you know sometimes you have the variable that you can never account for". I always ran across it when doing my studies.

We have a very long summer if someone(someones) will be willing to teach me about Corsi and Fenwick, and others, I'll be happy to learn it and apply it on how I view the team. I suck at numbers as I suffer from dyscalculia but I am a quick study

 

[Morbo]

Perhaps those also blaming reimer for not making the playoffs should consider that the leafs wouldn't even be sniffing a playoff spot without him.

Hilarious. Unless by Reimer you meant Bernier.

 

[Badger Mayhew*]

that's not fair - as the mods also let "I [insert word here] told you so." on those who like to have a healthy dose of optimism

And I can, as always speak only for me - as optimistic as I was, my eyes always told me I didn't like what I saw either. We stank. I personally hoped that it was a little bit of being inexperienced, a little bit of whatever crap system Carlyle had, and a little bit of "well, you know sometimes you have the variable that you can never account for". I always ran across it when doing my studies.

We have a very long summer if someone(someones) will be willing to teach me about Corsi and Fenwick, and others, I'll be happy to learn it and apply it on how I view the team. I suck at numbers as I suffer from dyscalculia but I am a quick study

To sum it up:

Corsi = All shot attempts (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots)
Fenwick = Shots + Missed Shots

Both stats have a high correlation with puck possession (aka, higher corsi = having the puck more)

You'll see it's often measured as a percent.

For a player: Corsi % = The percent of shot attempts that player was on the ice for
For a team: Corsi % = The percent of shot attempts that team took

So if a team has 50% corsi in a game, that means that both teams took the same amount of shot attempts, and had roughly equal puck possession.

Also note: Corsi/Fenwick only take into account shot attempts at even strength.

 

[Morbo]

I also find it funny how the Corsi people now blithely refer to an 8 game losing streak with no points at game 70 of an 82 game season as somehow "proof" that they were right all along about longterm unsustainable trends. It doesn't work like that, but keep patting yourselves on the back.

 

[rrc1967]

To sum it up:

Corsi = All shot attempts (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots)
Fenwick = Shots + Missed Shots

Both stats have a high correlation with puck possession (aka, higher corsi = having the puck more)

also the net effect of wearing down the goaltenders as well. the more shots directed at the net, far more effort is required by the goaltenders in general.

 

[Mess]

I also find it funny how the Corsi people now blithely refer to an 8 game losing streak with no points at game 70 of an 82 game season as somehow "proof" that they were right all along about longterm unsustainable trends. It doesn't work like that, but keep patting yourselves on the back.

Corsi predicted it was likely going to fail eventually not when it was going to fail.

Does it really matter where along the way of an 82 game season it occurs as its based on the premise of an entire season?.

Things have a way of balancing themselves out over time and our Leafs seem to go by extremes of highs and lows on performance and not following the average.

So are you suggesting those people that support advanced stats are wrong, despite the ending as predicted happening as expected? The stats suggested a crash and burn and a crash and burn happened.

 

[achtungbaby]

I also find it funny how the Corsi people now blithely refer to an 8 game losing streak with no points at game 70 of an 82 game season as somehow "proof" that they were right all along about longterm unsustainable trends. It doesn't work like that, but keep patting yourselves on the back.

Take it easy, no one said that an 8 game winning, or losing, streak proved anything. All advanced stats have said is that the leafs are outshot, play without the puck a lot and that winning like that was unsustainable.

 

[Faltorvo]

that's not fair - as the mods also let "I [insert word here] told you so." on those who like to have a healthy dose of optimism

And I can, as always speak only for me - as optimistic as I was, my eyes always told me I didn't like what I saw either. We stank. I personally hoped that it was a little bit of being inexperienced, a little bit of whatever crap system Carlyle had, and a little bit of "well, you know sometimes you have the variable that you can never account for". I always ran across it when doing my studies.

We have a very long summer if someone(someones) will be willing to teach me about Corsi and Fenwick, and others, I'll be happy to learn it and apply it on how I view the team. I suck at numbers as I suffer from dyscalculia but I am a quick study

I to struggle with the corsi/fens

I suggest you adopt my strategy on that front

just keep an eye on those that understand the numbers and who you trust to speak the truth against the mobs and grain of public sentiment.

 

[Faltorvo]

that's not fair - as the mods also let "I [insert word here] told you so." on those who like to have a healthy dose of optimism

And I can, as always speak only for me - as optimistic as I was, my eyes always told me I didn't like what I saw either. We stank. I personally hoped that it was a little bit of being inexperienced, a little bit of whatever crap system Carlyle had, and a little bit of "well, you know sometimes you have the variable that you can never account for". I always ran across it when doing my studies.

We have a very long summer if someone(someones) will be willing to teach me about Corsi and Fenwick, and others, I'll be happy to learn it and apply it on how I view the team. I suck at numbers as I suffer from dyscalculia but I am a quick study

DJ ,I would argue on the whole, when things are going "good" the "haters gonna hate" crew get far more leeway and grace then the "shift disturbers" and I get it.

It's a natural reflex to embrace those that are positive over the negative.

 

[number72]

GAA and shots against were a concern all year for the leafs. This corsi and fenwick just confuses things. Occam's razor - simpler is better.

 

[Faltorvo]

I also find it funny how the Corsi people now blithely refer to an 8 game losing streak with no points at game 70 of an 82 game season as somehow "proof" that they were right all along about longterm unsustainable trends. It doesn't work like that, but keep patting yourselves on the back.

What about the run that saw them fall out of a po spot earlier this season, that was one heck of a run down,no?

 

[Faltorvo]

I also find it funny how the Corsi people now blithely refer to an 8 game losing streak with no points at game 70 of an 82 game season as somehow "proof" that they were right all along about longterm unsustainable trends. It doesn't work like that, but keep patting yourselves on the back.

You should read this

http://www.recover-from-grief.com/7-stages-of-grief.html

here is a hint, your in stage 1.

 

[Mess]

Take it easy, no one said that an 8 game winning, or losing, streak proved anything. All advanced stats have said is that the leafs are outshot, play without the puck a lot and that it's unsustainable.

Its unsustainable because the team was giving up on average 36 shots per game.

If a goalie stops 33 of 36 shots that equals and .917 sv% but also a 3.0 GAA.

Bernier exceeded that with a top 10 sv% of .923 sv% but his GAA still ranked him #34 overall (2.69 average) based purly on the high volume of shots against not his own play. Bernier would have to record an off the charts .940 sv% unsustainable over time to bring that goals against number down.

Bottom line if your team is giving up on average +3.0 goal against a game (248 GA / 79 games = 3.14 GA/g) no matter how well your goalie plays then its unsustainable and unrealistic to believe the Leafs will consistently score 4 goals a game to win games by outscoring their mistakes (229 GF / 79 games = 2.9 GF/g). Particularly when their goal differential is -19 on the season.

No NHL team can sustain a 4 GF/g mark as Chicago leads the league at 3.27 mark.

To make matter worse the Leafs are badly outshot themselves which means in a limited shots on net themselves, their shooters need to have extremely high unsustainable shooting % to compensate and score 3 or more goals a game.

This is what Corsi has been suggesting.