Boston Bruins Advanced Stat Thread

[neverwatchthegames]

The bolded greatly interests me, I believe I asked in another thread if any models existed like this.

In my head it doesn't seem like it would be impossible to do using a combination of individual shooting% for each different shot type/positions and league average shooting% for those same types of shots/positions. I would think by doing this you can then start to apply a sort of "weight" on each shot based on what each individual does with each shot type and position on the ice compared to what the average player does from that same spot.

Obviously there is a lot of work to hone in the accuracy of such a model, but I look forward to some of these much smarter people working towards this.

I know its just daydreaming at this point, but I'd love to see the directional and temporal components of shooting talent. Time from catch to release, and body motion vector relative to puck release. So much of high skill shooting seems to be wrapped up in these timing and body position factors. Also target visualization from screened position. It would be so fascinating to get a fully chipped up (jersey, stick, puck) World Cup or something to get a peek at some of this stuff.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

They always turned the other guy around and left Forbort on the left because apparently potato hands can't turn towards the boards.

That's not my recollection.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I know its just daydreaming at this point, but I'd love to see the directional and temporal components of shooting talent. Time from catch to release, and body motion vector relative to puck release. So much of high skill shooting seems to be wrapped up in these timing and body position factors. Also target visualization from screened position. It would be so fascinating to get a fully chipped up (jersey, stick, puck) World Cup or something to get a peek at some of this stuff.

This sounds like Sheldon Copper's Fun With Hockey to me.

 

[burstnbloom]

The bolded greatly interests me, I believe I asked in another thread if any models existed like this.

In my head it doesn't seem like it would be impossible to do using a combination of individual shooting% for each different shot type/positions and league average shooting% for those same types of shots/positions. I would think by doing this you can then start to apply a sort of "weight" on each shot based on what each individual does with each shot type and position on the ice compared to what the average player does from that same spot.

Obviously there is a lot of work to hone in the accuracy of such a model, but I look forward to some of these much smarter people working towards this.

I think we are likely quite a bit away from this. First the nhl has to release player tracking to the public. Then someone needs to use all that data to figure out how to isolate shooting talent from the noise. The first few attempts will likely be bad but eventually we will be able to say “player x has shooting talent 50% better than average”.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

He has a decent shot but his skating lacks.

His puck handling and passing under pressure are horrible and that is what makes him a terrible dman.

 

[sarge88]

Another thought just hit me, although it's been covered a bit here.

If the metrics say that Forbort is as bad as people here say and the Bruins have their own metrics, which are reportedly similar to what we have access to, then why aren't they literally running away from the guy?

Everyone is healthy. If he's so abjectly terrible, why do the Bruins even entertain him being in the lineup ---- like ever?

I'm honestly not being a jerk here --- I've read several times here that Mike Rielly's advanced stats aren't bad and the primary issue with him is his salary.

Why isn't Forbort the guy on the outside looking in and Reilly here playing?

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Another thought just hit me, although it's been covered a bit here.

If the metrics say that Forbort is as bad as people here say and the Bruins have their own metrics, which are reportedly similar to what we have access to, then why aren't they literally running away from the guy?

Everyone is healthy. If he's so abjectly terrible, why do the Bruins even entertain him being in the lineup ---- like ever?

I'm honestly not being a jerk here --- I've read several times here that Mike Rielly's advanced stats aren't bad and the primary issue with him is his salary.

Why isn't Forbort the guy on the outside looking in and Reilly here playing?

Because the one thing he does that isn't below average (block shots on the PK and take away more space on it due to wing span) is something Reilly can't do and no one wants Lindholm or now Orlov increasing their chances of getting hurt blocking PK shots.

Whole Forbort thing would be moot if you could dress 21 guys.

 

[sarge88]

Because the one thing he does that isn't below average (block shots on the PK and take away more space on it due to wing span) is something Reilly can't do and no one wants Lindholm or now Orlov increasing their chances of getting hurt blocking PK shots.

Whole Forbort thing would be moot if you could dress 21 guys.

That was my initial instinct too, but there are a lot of people posting that the stats don't support that theory and that his 5 vs 5 play, no matter how limited/sheltered they make it, is so bad it doesn't justify keeping him in the lineup for his PK abilities.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

That was my initial instinct too, but there are a lot of people posting that the stats don't support that theory and that his 5 vs 5 play, no matter how limited/sheltered they make it, is so bad it doesn't justify keeping him in the lineup for his PK abilities.

I don't see how that contradicts what I was saying. In other words if Forbort is one of 7 Dmen dressed he would essentially play on the PK only and Reilly takes the 5\5 shifts. The caveat of course is Reilly puts you over the cap, so would really be talking Zboril.

 

[sarge88]

I don't see how that contradicts what I was saying. In other words if Forbort is one of 7 Dmen dressed he would essentially play on the PK only and Reilly takes the 5\5 shifts.

I understand your point. My point is more in reference to those that say the metrics show that he's so bad, even including his PK work, that he shouldn't be playing at all.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I understand your point. My point is more in reference to those that say the metrics show that he's so bad, even including his PK work, that he shouldn't be playing at all.

I would think they have other metrics that shows how they use him is better
than with Zboril.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I would think they have other metrics that shows how they use him is better
than with Zboril.

We have the advanced stats and/or eye test.

Coaches have that plus the "being there" perspective. None of us have that view.

 

[Almanil]

I think there could be couple reasons why Forbort is still in the lineup. Currently the option is Zboril who did not play much for some reason. I would assume as we are heading to the end of the regular season, now could be good time to give him some space.
1. the coaches might not like the combinations without Forbort
2. they just like him better than the analytics say (that is no criticisim, this is just the way people work, they might feel that he brings some other aspects that outweigh his below average stats)

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I think there could be couple reasons why Forbort is still in the lineup. Currently the option is Zboril who did not play much for some reason. I would assume as we are heading to the end of the regular season, now could be good time to give him some space.
1. the coaches might not like the combinations without Forbort
2. they just like him better than the analytics say (that is no criticisim, this is just the way people work, they might feel that he brings some other aspects that outweigh his below average stats)

Could be true but they have the #1 PK with Forbort getting the primary TOI of the
LD. Forbort even has a really sweet SHG this year...lol.

 

[The Laukomotive]

The bolded greatly interests me, I believe I asked in another thread if any models existed like this.

Some people do track it under the current limitations.

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats has shooting talent stats in the very last columns of the spreadsheet.

Just keep in mind his definitions:

Shooting Talent Above Average: A player's ability to score more goals an average player given the same scoring opportunities. This is based on a player's historical track record of exceeding their expected goals. A player with a shooting talent above average of 20% would have a 12% chance of scoring a goal on a shot with expected goal value of 0.1

Shooting Talent Adjusted Expected Goals: Expected goals * (1 + Shooting Talent Above Average). This is the number of goals a player is expected to score given their expected goals and their shooting talent.

Another example:



The finishing impact on goal odds is also shooting talent.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Could be true but they have the #1 PK with Forbort getting the primary TOI of the
LD. Forbort even has a really sweet SHG this year...lol.

Actually, he has two.

 

[neverwatchthegames]

I don't think it's hard to understand why the coaching staff likes Forbort despite his major shortcomings. He's big and blocks shots. While I don't think those are the best tools for killing a penalty, old habits die hard and NHL teams maintain a great deal of intellectual inertia. It's working for them this year, even though it might not be optimized. To me, the best PK players are forwards who are quick in tight spaces, have the offensive creativity to see opposition plays developing, and have an eye towards the counterattack... think Marchand and Marner.

 

[sarge88]

I don't think it's hard to understand why the coaching staff likes Forbort despite his major shortcomings. He's big and blocks shots. While I don't think those are the best tools for killing a penalty, old habits die hard and NHL teams maintain a great deal of intellectual inertia. It's working for them this year, even though it might not be optimized. To me, the best PK players are forwards who are quick in tight spaces, have the offensive creativity to see opposition plays developing, and have an eye towards the counterattack... think Marchand and Marner.

Hard to quantify -- but for me the most important PK "skill" is the ability to get the puck out of the zone. I think McAvoy and Lindholm do this very well.

Anecdotally, while I like the guy a lot and know he's been good overall on the PK, I think Zacha struggles a bit with this. Not sure if there are stats to back it up or not, but that's my take.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I don't think it's hard to understand why the coaching staff likes Forbort despite his major shortcomings. He's big and blocks shots. While I don't think those are the best tools for killing a penalty, old habits die hard and NHL teams maintain a great deal of intellectual inertia. It's working for them this year, even though it might not be optimized. To me, the best PK players are forwards who are quick in tight spaces, have the offensive creativity to see opposition plays developing, and have an eye towards the counterattack... think Marchand and Marner.

Do you think it would be better to play 4 forwards instead of two defensemen on the PK?

 

[neverwatchthegames]

Do you think it would be better to play 4 forwards instead of two defensemen on the PK?

Is that your take away? It feels like you're intentionally misunderstanding.

 

[neverwatchthegames]

Hard to quantify -- but for me the most important PK "skill" is the ability to get the puck out of the zone. I think McAvoy and Lindholm do this very well.

Anecdotally, while I like the guy a lot and know he's been good overall on the PK, I think Zacha struggles a bit with this. Not sure if there are stats to back it up or not, but that's my take.

For sure. I think there's lots of ways to do this, though. Little flips to the neutral zone are pretty dangerous, as tyhey often results in a quick offensive regrouping and the penalty killers getting caught in a piecemeal line change. Same thing with a giant clear that zips right to the goalie who can fling the puck back up and reenter the zone. A perfect clear sort of dribbles to the the far corner and they have to go get it. Even better is a controlled exit to a counterattacking forward. Shorthanded threats keep the powerplay from getting too comfortable and limit their options.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Is that your take away? It feels like you're intentionally misunderstanding.

No, honestly.

Don't know if anyone has ever tried it. Maybe it would work with the right players and coaching.

Just thinking outside the box.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Another thought just hit me, although it's been covered a bit here.

If the metrics say that Forbort is as bad as people here say and the Bruins have their own metrics, which are reportedly similar to what we have access to, then why aren't they literally running away from the guy?

Everyone is healthy. If he's so abjectly terrible, why do the Bruins even entertain him being in the lineup ---- like ever?

I'm honestly not being a jerk here --- I've read several times here that Mike Rielly's advanced stats aren't bad and the primary issue with him is his salary.

Why isn't Forbort the guy on the outside looking in and Reilly here playing?

because even if a team values analytics more than the average team it's not like they are solely making their decisions based on analytics. These organizations are still made up of mostly old school hockey guys. For better or worse they probably just value Forbort's PK prowess & "stoutness" enough to offset his shortcomings regardless of what the stats say. It's also possible that the non-public stats they have indicate that he has some value that the public models don't capture well (I doubt it, but it's possible). I know he's also seen as a glue guy in the locker room and the coaches probably value that, which obviously isn't showing up in any stats other than their considerably strong W/L record.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

because even if a team values analytics more than the average team it's not like they are solely making their decisions based on analytics. These organizations are still made up of mostly old school hockey guys. For better or worse they probably just value Forbort's PK prowess & "stoutness" enough to offset his shortcomings regardless of what the stats say. It's also possible that the non-public stats they have indicate that he has some value that the public models don't capture well (I doubt it, but it's possible). I know he's also seen as a glue guy in the locker room and the coaches probably value that, which obviously isn't showing up in any stats other than their considerably strong W/L record.

Indeed.

As well as his teammates.

 

[neverwatchthegames]

No, honestly.

Don't know if anyone has ever tried it. Maybe it would work with the right players and coaching.

Just thinking outside the box.

I seriously doubt anyone has or would try it, but I'd certainly love it if someone did. More realistically, I think a pk of Marchand, Bergeron, Coyle, and one of McAvoy/Orlov/Lindolm would be fantastic. Obviously that forward group can't play the whole pk, but that's the type of setup I'd like to see.