Adjusting for Score and Venue

[Eb]

Hi all,

Hoping someone can help me better understand how one adjusts for score and venue when calculation xG?

Thanks

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[Filthy Dangles]

nvm misread

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Hi all,

Hoping someone can help me better understand how one adjusts for score and venue when calculation xG?

Thanks

since a home team or a team that is down are both expected to get more xg, the xg they do get is slightly deflated and vice versa

 

[Eb]

since a home team or a team that is down are both expected to get more xg, the xg they do get is slightly deflated and vice versa

Makes sense. Is there a common factor that is used? If so, how is it determined?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Makes sense. Is there a common factor that is used? If so, how is it determined?

there is i forget what it is. its determined by looking at the unadjusted xGF and xGA in these scenarios iirc

 

[JetsFan815]

Hi all,

Hoping someone can help me better understand how one adjusts for score and venue when calculation xG?

Thanks

The gist of it is:

When a team is up in score, every xGoal event they generate will be slightly boosted, in general, the higher the margin they are up by the more "boost" each xGoal event will get. A similar but different factor boost is applied to each xGoal event generated by the away team.

Conversely when a team is down every xGoal event they generate will be slightly deflated, the more they are down by the higher the deflation. A similar but different factor deflation is applied to each xGoal event generated by the home team.

If you want to understand what the boost and deflation factors are and how they arrived at that, read this article and all the articles it mentions in the introduction HV Article (the article talks about Fenwick but the same principles apply for xGoals).