We know a higher percentage of overall offense comes from first liners now than in the 1980s. Is this not still true at even strength?
This is true at even strength. The distribution question is an interesting one.
Here are some numbers for a selection of NHL seasons since expansion.
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
1968 | 28.8% | 25.9% | 23.7% | 22.1% | 19.7% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.6%
1973 | 30.0% | 27.0% | 24.3% | 21.7% | 20.3% | 18.2% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.9%
1978 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 21.1% | 19.2% | 17.7% | 16.6% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.9%
1983 | 27.9% | 24.4% | 21.6% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.4%
1988 | 28.8% | 24.5% | 21.4% | 19.5% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.3%
1993 | 30.4% | 24.8% | 21.4% | 19.8% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2%
1998 | 31.9% | 24.6% | 21.3% | 19.3% | 17.3% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.0%
2003 | 30.9% | 26.6% | 23.5% | 20.0% | 17.5% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2%
2008 | 32.6% | 27.5% | 24.0% | 21.1% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.2%
2012 | 30.5% | 26.4% | 23.6% | 21.0% | 18.1% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2%
Year | 1-3 (First line) | 4-6 (Second line) | 7-9 (Third line) | 10-12 (Fourth line) | 1-6 (Top six) | 7-12 (Bottom six)
1968 | 26.1% | 19.9% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 11.0%
1973 | 27.1% | 20.0% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 23.6% | 10.6%
1978 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 10.7%
1983 | 24.7% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 20.9% | 10.3%
1988 | 24.9% | 17.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 21.1% | 10.0%
1993 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 21.5% | 9.5%
1998 | 26.0% | 17.4% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 21.7% | 9.4%
2003 | 27.0% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 22.3% | 9.9%
2008 | 28.0% | 18.3% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 23.2% | 10.1%
2012 | 26.8% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 22.5% | 9.3%
The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.
So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.
Compare Wayne Gretzky's 1982-83 season to Jaromir Jagr's 1997-98 season.
Gretzky scored 133 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 228.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 27.9% of team ES goals.
Jagr scored 64 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 148.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 31.9% of team ES goals.
These simple adjusted points adjust for 1. but not 2.