Adjusted Even Strength Points

[Sturminator]

Ok, well I have decided to expand the study a bit to achieve some kind of a better overview. Thus far, I have worked through all of the post-expansion ATD wings selected between the 3rd and 18th rounds (well, mostly just wings - I have quite selfishly added the lower line centers who I currently own, Bobby Smith was already in, and for some reason I did the numbers for MacTavish), and I am stopping there, for now. The table is sorted by 10 season weighted average. Here it is:

Player|1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10| Total
Jarome Iginla|85|83|76|71|68|65|58|58|58|54| 68.7
John Leclair|93|86|81|73|70|65|56|54|42|40| 68
Luc Robitaille|74|73|71|70|70|68|64|63|59|54| 67.3
Mark Recchi|75|74|74|66|65|64|61|59|58|58| 66.1
Brett Hull|88|67|66|66|64|62|62|60|56|55| 65.3
Martin St. Louis|78|73|70|70|68|67|65|62|48|38| 65.2
Theo Fleury|83|69|67|66|65|62|58|58|52|46| 63.6
Ken Hodge|103|84|74|59|55|55|52|43|39|36| 61.9
Ilya Kovalchuk|72|72|70|67|60|59|56|54|47|47| 61.5
Paul Kariya|73|71|70|65|63|60|58|51|46|42| 61.2
Keith Tkachuk|75|70|63|62|62|59|58|54|50|48| 60.9
Daniel Alfredsson|74|72|64|61|61|58|56|52|51|50| 60.7
Alex Mogilny|83|76|70|63|61|54|52|47|43|43| 60.6
Pavel Bure|88|76|75|66|63|57|48|46|42|23| 60.5
Marian Hossa|66|65|62|62|59|58|58|55|55|49| 59.5
Tony Amonte|72|68|66|64|60|55|52|51|48|48| 59.4
Dany Heatley|79|75|73|65|62|62|57|41|39|18| 59.3
Patrik Elias|83|78|59|55|55|53|52|50|49|48| 59.1
Pavol Demitra|79|76|64|63|52|51|50|46|46|44| 58.3
Vincent Damphousse|63|63|63|60|57|57|55|52|52|48| 57.6
Michel Goulet|77|72|59|56|54|53|52|49|46|44| 57.1
Markus Naslund|80|77|66|55|52|48|46|45|43|41| 56.6
Brendan Shanahan|69|57|56|56|56|55|54|53|53|51| 56.3
Steve Shutt|86|67|62|62|58|56|51|38|35|28| 56.1
Glenn Anderson|68|65|63|61|57|56|47|46|44|42| 56
Peter Bondra|70|62|61|58|56|52|52|48|47|38| 55.4
Wayne Cashman|78|75|58|58|55|55|43|40|39|37| 55.2
Ziggy Palffy|73|72|64|58|55|54|44|41|40|28| 54.5
Marian Gaborik|76|70|67|56|54|53|43|40|39|31| 54.5
Dino Ciccarelli|64|58|57|54|54|52|52|51|48|46| 54.1
Gary Roberts|71|63|58|55|53|50|48|47|45|42| 54
Mike Gartner|62|57|56|56|55|53|50|48|46|46| 53.5
Glen Murray|84|73|63|56|52|41|41|34|34|34| 52.9
Patrick Marleau|65|57|54|53|52|52|48|47|47|46| 52.6
Yvan Cournoyer|68|64|57|56|49|48|46|44|43|42| 52.6
Rick Middleton|66|59|58|55|54|53|48|44|40|38| 52.5
Steve Thomas|73|60|52|51|50|49|48|48|46|41| 52.4
Bill Guerin|72|65|61|56|51|47|41|41|39|38| 52.3
Dave Taylor|66|62|60|53|50|47|45|44|44|42| 52.2
Bobby Smith|66|61|57|52|50|49|46|44|41|37| 51.2
Rick Tocchet|63|58|57|53|51|47|44|44|43|42| 51
Shane Doan|57|57|55|52|50|49|48|47|47|42| 50.9
Lanny McDonald|62|58|57|54|53|49|45|44|38|38| 50.8
Pat Verbeek|57|53|52|52|50|49|46|45|44|43| 49.6
John Tonelli|64|63|53|49|48|46|44|42|40|38| 49.6
Rick Martin|65|57|57|57|49|48|46|44|36|18| 49.2
Dave Andreychuk|59|55|50|50|49|48|44|43|43|42| 48.8
Brian Propp|56|56|53|51|49|49|46|42|40|38| 48.7
Kevin Stevens|85|65|51|49|46|39|38|34|34|32| 48.6
John MacLean|56|54|53|53|49|45|45|43|40|40| 48.5
Steve Larmer|59|59|55|51|50|42|41|40|39|39| 48.4
Tom Lysiak|59|57|52|49|47|45|44|43|41|38| 48.2
Owen Nolan|60|52|52|49|47|46|43|41|41|38| 47.6
Jean Pronovost|65|56|50|48|46|44|42|41|41|35| 47.6
Danny Gare|60|59|58|53|52|45|42|42|26|21| 47.4
Simon Gagne|67|66|56|54|51|43|32|30|27|25| 46.9
Vic Hadfield|79|53|48|46|45|43|39|36|33|33| 46.5
Craig Ramsay|63|57|50|49|45|43|42|40|38|27| 46.4
Bill Barber|67|50|49|48|43|41|41|41|39|37| 46.3
Kirk Muller|63|59|56|49|48|40|38|35|32|28| 46.1
J.P. Parise|69|60|46|46|45|43|41|40|30|30| 46.1
Terry O'Reilly|68|61|51|48|46|39|36|34|33|27| 45.6
Wilf Paiement|56|53|53|52|44|41|40|39|35|31| 45.4
Don Luce|60|59|56|51|48|42|39|37|22|21| 45.1
Brenden Morrow|59|58|51|50|48|41|38|31|30|24| 44.4
Rene Robert|59|54|54|52|50|46|37|35|18|18| 44
Reggie Leach|70|58|57|39|37|35|33|33|32|30| 43.6
Fred Stanfield|59|58|52|50|48|39|34|31|30|12| 43
Trevor Linden|56|54|47|42|40|39|37|36|36|34| 42.8
Brian Rolston|55|50|45|41|41|40|39|39|36|34| 42.6
Charlie Simmer|59|59|56|47|45|39|34|27|24|16| 42.4
Clark Gillies|59|58|53|47|37|35|34|33|26|24| 42
Kevin Dineen|51|50|50|43|43|37|35|35|33|31| 41.6
Claude Lemieux|50|46|46|45|39|39|39|37|34|34| 41.5
Bob Nystrom|53|50|43|43|39|39|37|36|35|34| 41.5
Mario Tremblay|52|49|48|44|43|40|39|34|28|28| 41.5
Mel Bridgman|53|50|47|40|39|39|37|37|36|28| 41.3
Ross Lonsberry|48|42|41|39|39|38|38|38|36|34| 39.6
Brian Sutter|57|47|46|43|41|41|41|26|24|16| 39.5
Adam Graves|50|47|45|45|40|38|34|30|27|27| 39.3
Tim Kerr|66|56|56|44|34|33|28|27|16|13| 39.2
Esa Tikkanen|60|50|50|44|38|36|31|27|24|17| 39.2
Wendell Clark|48|47|44|44|43|36|35|29|28|26| 39
Jere Lehtinen|55|45|44|41|39|38|36|31|27|23| 38.9
Bobby Schmautz|57|46|42|42|40|37|36|27|26|23| 38.6
Don Marcotte|61|48|45|41|37|36|31|27|24|20| 38.2
Gregg Sheppard|57|49|45|43|43|40|29|23|19|16| 38
Troy Murray|63|51|41|36|34|31|30|28|24|24| 37.2
Yvon Lambert|49|48|46|42|39|38|34|26|17|0| 35.7
Dirk Graham|54|44|39|33|33|31|31|31|29|20| 35.3
Kelly Miller|47|37|37|34|34|34|31|30|29|28| 34.6
Bob Gainey|35|35|34|34|32|32|31|26|24|24| 31.2
Craig MacTavish|38|35|31|31|31|27|26|26|25|24| 29.8
Jan Erixon|24|23|23|23|22|17|16|14|14|13| 19.4

I have also added Glen Murray and Steve Thomas, both players who I knew were much better even-strength producers than is generally credited here. As always, there are qualifiers, provisos and caveats with many of these players, but I think this data is a step forward in terms of dividing the players somewhat by skillset, rather than viewing scoring as a sort of homogenous mass, as we have long done in the ATD.

Well, have at it. I am going to take a break from doing more numbers for now, but anyone who wants to help me by either checking the numbers or running more, feel free to PM me, and I will update the table, as appropriate. Also, please note that these are all numbers from overpass' spreadsheet. I round all the AESP numbers to integers, and this can cause small differences in the calculations.

Again, the formula for the weighting of the seasons is: 18, 19, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13...and then the whole thing divided by 169.

note: I have excluded the following players due to incomplete data: Rod Gilbert, Mats Naslund, B-A Gustafson, John McKenzie, Rick Nash (working on his 10th season now).

Click to read more...

 

[Sturminator]

Players higher than I'd expected:

- John Leclair
- Luc Robitaille
- Keith Tkachuk
- Vincent Damphousse
- Patrick Marleau
- Glen Murray
- Steve Thomas
- Pat Verbeek
- John MacLean
- Tom Lysiak
- J.P. Parise
- Bob Nystrom

Players lower than I'd expected:

- Pavel Bure
- Michel Goulet
- Brendan Shanahan
- Lanny McDonald
- Rick Martin
- Brian Propp
- Bill Barber
- Reggie Leach
- Fred Stanfield
- Clark Gillies
- Adam Graves
- Tim Kerr

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm not really surprised by LeClair's high numbers. I remember overpass posting about how the Legion of Doom was a dominant even strength line, but surprisingly not as impressive on the powerplay as you'd think. This was in reference to Eric Lindros, but I'm not surprised it also applies to John LeClair.

I'm not surprised to see Fred Stanfield so low at even strength - he routinely got fewer accolades than either of his even strength linemates - Johnny Bucyk and Pie McKenzie - and he had to have gotten a ton of points playing the opposite point from Bobby Orr on the power play. Also not surprised to see Clarke Gillies so low at even strength - I know he had a big role on the dominant Islanders power play

I guess I should't be surprised to see Cournoyer so low, as I knew he was a PP specialist early in his career, but I'm still surprised by it.

At first I was surprised to see Andreychuk so far ahead of Kerr, but then I realized that these are per-season numbers, not per-game numbers, so they are merciless towards injury-prone players.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

One thing to remember is that adjusted points tend to be overly harsh on 1980s first line players because of the way they are calulated - basically, the majority of the offensive explosion in the 1980s was inflated scoring by lower play players - but the adjusted points are based off league average scoring and punish the stars as much as they punish the lower line players. Seriously, look at the scoring tables - other than Gretzky and later Lemieux, top line players in the 1980s didn't score any more than they did in the 1970s, even as overall league scoring went up.

Adjusted even strength points are not as bad as adjusted points in general, but they still do underrate 1980s first line forwards, while overrating 1980s role players. Yes, Jan Erixon's low numbers should probably be even lower.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Great work Sturm and good points TDMM. This is extremely helpful in something I'm working on for next year.

 

[Sturminator]

Adjusted even strength points are not as bad as adjusted points in general, but they still do underrate 1980s first line forwards, while overrating 1980s role players. Yes, Jan Erixon's low numbers should probably be even lower.

That's a good point about the 1980's, Devil, and something we have to keep in mind. The presentation of these numbers in this way is meant to be a step forward in our attempt to place these players in some sort of context relative to one another; the above is not a statistical utopia, by any means.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Please delete.

 

[Dreakmur]

Players higher than I'd expected:

- John Leclair
- Luc Robitaille
- Keith Tkachuk
- Vincent Damphousse
- Patrick Marleau
- Glen Murray
- Steve Thomas
- Pat Verbeek
- John MacLean
- Tom Lysiak
- J.P. Parise
- Bob Nystrom

Players lower than I'd expected:

- Pavel Bure
- Michel Goulet
- Brendan Shanahan
- Lanny McDonald
- Rick Martin
- Brian Propp
- Bill Barber
- Reggie Leach
- Fred Stanfield
- Clark Gillies
- Adam Graves
- Tim Kerr

Yeah, a lot of those don't match what I thought of most of those guys.

Was surprised to see Demitra as high as he was.

 

[Sturminator]

Yeah, a lot of those don't match what I thought of most of those guys.

Was surprised to see Demitra as high as he was.

I had thought of Demitra as something more of a powerplay specialist, myself. His is one of the more interesting results. If I were you, I'd try to find a way to use him more often at even strength.

I really like doing this kind of work (and it was work) because it reminds me of how little I really know about all of these players, and that sort of brings back the wonder for me. I feel like a huge ****ing nerd for saying that spending a few hours going through an excel document and hammering out a big table full of data somehow astounds me, but well...I guess I feel that way for a reason.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

I had thought of Demitra as something more of a powerplay specialist, myself. His is one of the more interesting results. If I were you, I'd try to find a way to use him more often at even strength. ...

Agreed. I admit unadjusted PPG is not an accurate system like AESP, but over a 10 year period Demitra tied Doug Gilmour. http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...at=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game

 

[overpass]

I ran the numbers for the best forwards in adjusted even strength points over various five year periods since expansion. The purpose was to examine whether there were any era biases remaining after adjusting for scoring level, and to examine where the numbers differ from traditional ATD valuations.

I included all players who played at least 2.5 seasons out of the 5 year period, and ranked them in $ESP/season.

1971-1975

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Phil Esposito | 90
2 | Ken Hodge | 70
3 | Jean Ratelle | 69
4 | Wayne Cashman | 66
5 | Bobby Clarke | 63
6 | Rod Gilbert | 63
7 | Frank Mahovlich | 62
8 | Stan Mikita | 62
9 | Marcel Dionne | 60
10 | Jacques Lemaire | 60
20 | John Bucyk | 55
30 | Vic Hadfield | 52
40 | Derek Sanderson | 49
50 | Danny Grant | 45
75 | Gordon "Red" Berenson | 39
100 | Larry Romanchych | 34

1976-1980

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Guy Lafleur | 91
2 | Marcel Dionne | 73
3 | Bryan Trottier | 71
4 | Darryl Sittler | 70
5 | Steve Shutt | 68
6 | Peter McNab | 64
7 | Gilbert Perreault | 64
8 | Mike Bossy | 63
9 | Jean Ratelle | 62
10 | Jacques Lemaire | 62
20 | Rick Martin | 53
30 | Orest Kindrachuk | 50
40 | Reggie Leach | 48
50 | Stan Mikita | 45
75 | Ric Seiling | 40
100 | Jack Valiquette | 36

1981-1985

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 118
2 | Mike Bossy | 78
3 | Jari Kurri | 74
4 | Peter Stastny | 73
5 | Michel Goulet | 66
6 | Marcel Dionne | 66
7 | Bryan Trottier | 65
8 | Dale Hawerchuk | 61
9 | Glenn Anderson | 60
10 | Denis Savard | 59
20 | Kent Nilsson | 53
30 | Lanny Mcdonald | 50
40 | Real Cloutier | 48
50 | Paul Maclean | 46
75 | Bengt-Ake Gustafsson | 42
100 | Greg Malone | 38

1986-1990

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 113
2 | Mario Lemieux | 85
3 | Steve Yzerman | 71
4 | Jari Kurri | 67
5 | Mark Messier | 65
6 | Luc Robitaille | 65
7 | Denis Savard | 61
8 | Bernie Nicholls | 61
9 | Dino Ciccarelli | 58
10 | Dale Hawerchuk | 57
20 | Doug Gilmour | 52
30 | Kevin Dineen | 49
40 | Tom Fergus | 48
50 | Jim Peplinski | 46
75 | Pat Verbeek | 43
100 | Sylvain Turgeon | 39

1991-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 73
2 | Adam Oates | 73
3 | Jaromir Jagr | 72
4 | Cam Neely | 69
5 | Steve Yzerman | 68
6 | Alexei Zhamnov | 68
7 | Mark Recchi | 67
8 | Joe Sakic | 67
9 | Teemu Selanne | 67
10 | Luc Robitaille | 66
20 | Theoren Fleury | 61
30 | Jeremy Roenick | 55
40 | Valeri Zelepukin | 51
50 | Mike Ridley | 49
75 | Stephan Lebeau | 45
100 | John Druce | 40

1996-2000

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Jaromir Jagr | 104
2 | Eric Lindros | 90
3 | Teemu Selanne | 82
4 | John Leclair | 80
5 | Paul Kariya | 78
6 | Peter Forsberg | 77
7 | Pavel Bure | 77
8 | Pierre Turgeon | 74
9 | Mats Sundin | 72
10 | Joe Sakic | 72
20 | Alexander Mogilny | 64
30 | Gary Roberts | 58
40 | Vincent Damphousse | 53
50 | Daniel Alfredsson | 50
75 | Jason Arnott | 46
100 | Niklas Sundstrom | 43

2001-2006

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Peter Forsberg | 84
2 | Jaromir Jagr | 83
3 | Joe Thornton | 83
4 | Joe Sakic | 73
5 | Alex Tanguay | 70
6 | Patrik Elias | 69
7 | Zigmund Palffy | 68
8 | Pavol Demitra | 68
9 | Markus Naslund | 67
10 | Glen Murray | 66
20 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 62
30 | Saku Koivu | 60
40 | Alexei Yashin | 56
50 | Keith Primeau | 53
75 | Radek Dvorak | 49
100 | Rod Brind'Amour | 45

2007-2011

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Sidney Crosby | 87
2 | Alex Ovechkin | 85
3 | Jarome Iginla | 74
4 | Evgeni Malkin | 73
5 | Marian Gaborik | 72
6 | Daniel Sedin | 72
7 | Henrik Sedin | 72
8 | Martin St. Louis | 69
9 | Pavel Datsyuk | 69
10 | Jason Spezza | 67
20 | Zach Parise | 61
30 | Marc Savard | 58
40 | Steven Stamkos | 56
50 | Olli Jokinen | 53
75 | Phil Kessel | 49
100 | Andrew Ladd | 45

Looking at the different eras, there appears to be a sharp break in traditional ATD perception and adjusted even strength scoring in the mid-90s. 8 players from the 1996-2000 period had higher numbers than anyone from the 1991-1995 period - but the 1991-1995 group was drafted higher on average.

And if we look at the top 5-year periods pre-1995 and post-1995, the difference in the numbers vs traditional ATD perception is striking.

Pre-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 118 | 1981-1985
2 | Wayne Gretzky | 113 | 1986-1990
3 | Guy Lafleur | 91 | 1976-1980
4 | Phil Esposito | 90 | 1971-1975
5 | Mario Lemieux | 85 | 1986-1990
6 | Mike Bossy | 78 | 1981-1985
7 | Jari Kurri | 74 | 1981-1985
8 | Peter Stastny | 73 | 1981-1985
9 | Wayne Gretzky | 73 | 1991-1995
10 | Marcel Dionne | 73 | 1976-1980
11 | Adam Oates | 73 | 1991-1995
12 | Jaromir Jagr | 72 | 1991-1995
13 | Steve Yzerman | 71 | 1986-1990
14 | Bryan Trottier | 71 | 1976-1980
15 | Ken Hodge | 70 | 1971-1975
16 | Darryl Sittler | 70 | 1976-1980
17 | Cam Neely | 69 | 1991-1995
18 | Jean Ratelle | 69 | 1971-1975
19 | Steve Yzerman | 68 | 1991-1995
20 | Steve Shutt | 68 | 1976-1980

Post-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Jaromir Jagr | 104 | 1996-2000
2 | Eric Lindros | 90 | 1996-2000
3 | Sidney Crosby | 87 | 2007-2011
4 | Alex Ovechkin | 85 | 2007-2011
5 | Peter Forsberg | 84 | 2001-2006
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 83 | 2001-2006
7 | Joe Thornton | 83 | 2001-2006
8 | Teemu Selanne | 82 | 1996-2000
9 | John Leclair | 80 | 1996-2000
10 | Paul Kariya | 78 | 1996-2000
11 | Peter Forsberg | 77 | 1996-2000
12 | Pavel Bure | 77 | 1996-2000
13 | Pierre Turgeon | 74 | 1996-2000
14 | Jarome Iginla | 74 | 2007-2011
15 | Evgeni Malkin | 73 | 2007-2011
16 | Joe Sakic | 73 | 2001-2006
17 | Marian Gaborik | 72 | 2007-2011
18 | Mats Sundin | 72 | 1996-2000
19 | Daniel Sedin | 72 | 2007-2011
20 | Joe Sakic | 72 | 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.

 

[overpass]

Actually, the change appears to have started already in the 1991-1995 period. See Hawerchuk at #10 for 1986-1990 with 57 $ESP/S, and Robitaille at #10 for 1991-1995 with 66 $ESP/S.

 

[Czech Your Math]

What is the methodology being used?

I'm particularly curious as to how Crosby ends up with a higher average than Ovechkin for the period 2007-2011.

 

[overpass]

What is the methodology being used?

I'm particularly curious as to how Crosby ends up with a higher average than Ovechkin for the period 2007-2011.

1. Adjust all seasonal ESP (and ESG, ESA) totals to a scoring level of 200 ESG per team per season.

2. For the five year period, for each forward, 1. find the sum of adjusted ESP, 2. find the sum of games played (expressed as fractions of a season played), 3. Divide result from 1 by result from 2.

Sidney Crosby, 2006-07 through 2010-11

Year | Seasons | ESP | LgESG | $ESP | $ESP/S
2006-07 | 0.96 | 59 | 157 | 75 | 78
2007-08 | 0.65 | 44 | 153 | 58 | 89
2008-09 | 0.94 | 62 | 161 | 77 | 82
2009-10 | 0.99 | 72 | 165 | 87 | 88
2010-11 | 0.50 | 46 | 165 | 56 | 112
2007-2011 | 4.04 | 283 | 160 | 353 | 87

Alex Ovechkin, 2006-07 through 2010-11

Year | Seasons | ESP | LgESG | $ESP | $ESP/S
2006-07 | 1.00 | 55 | 157 | 70 | 70
2007-08 | 1.00 | 75 | 153 | 98 | 98
2008-09 | 0.96 | 63 | 161 | 78 | 81
2009-10 | 0.88 | 73 | 165 | 88 | 101
2010-11 | 0.96 | 61 | 165 | 74 | 77
2007-2011 | 4.80 | 327 | 160 | 409 | 85

The scoring level adjustment has very little effect on this result. Looking at unadjusted even strength points, Crosby had 283 in 331 GP over this time period (0.85 ESP/G) and Ovechkin had 327 in 394 GP (0.83 ESP/G).

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Please delete.

 

[BraveCanadian]

The scoring level adjustment has very little effect on this result. Looking at unadjusted even strength points, Crosby had 283 in 331 GP over this time period (0.85 ESP/G) and Ovechkin had 327 in 394 GP (0.83 ESP/G).

I guess it wasn't clear that it was a per season rate and not a per season actual.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Actually, the change appears to have started already in the 1991-1995 period. See Hawerchuk at #10 for 1986-1990 with 57 $ESP/S, and Robitaille at #10 for 1991-1995 with 66 $ESP/S.

Interesting. That pretty much exactly corresponds to the European influx to to NHL in the early 90s, but in increase in adjusted scoring among top players is way too high to be entirely accounted for by an increase in scoring talent.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Bringing this one to the surface, now that it's been moved to "By The Numbers".

 

[tombombadil]

more depth = less separation.

good thread. I wish i understood more of it.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Pre-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 118 | 1981-1985
2 | Wayne Gretzky | 113 | 1986-1990
3 | Guy Lafleur | 91 | 1976-1980
4 | Phil Esposito | 90 | 1971-1975
5 | Mario Lemieux | 85 | 1986-1990
6 | Mike Bossy | 78 | 1981-1985
7 | Jari Kurri | 74 | 1981-1985
8 | Peter Stastny | 73 | 1981-1985
9 | Wayne Gretzky | 73 | 1991-1995
10 | Marcel Dionne | 73 | 1976-1980
11 | Adam Oates | 73 | 1991-1995
12 | Jaromir Jagr | 72 | 1991-1995
13 | Steve Yzerman | 71 | 1986-1990
14 | Bryan Trottier | 71 | 1976-1980
15 | Ken Hodge | 70 | 1971-1975
16 | Darryl Sittler | 70 | 1976-1980
17 | Cam Neely | 69 | 1991-1995
18 | Jean Ratelle | 69 | 1971-1975
19 | Steve Yzerman | 68 | 1991-1995
20 | Steve Shutt | 68 | 1976-1980

Post-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Jaromir Jagr | 104 | 1996-2000
2 | Eric Lindros | 90 | 1996-2000
3 | Sidney Crosby | 87 | 2007-2011
4 | Alex Ovechkin | 85 | 2007-2011
5 | Peter Forsberg | 84 | 2001-2006
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 83 | 2001-2006
7 | Joe Thornton | 83 | 2001-2006
8 | Teemu Selanne | 82 | 1996-2000
9 | John Leclair | 80 | 1996-2000
10 | Paul Kariya | 78 | 1996-2000
11 | Peter Forsberg | 77 | 1996-2000
12 | Pavel Bure | 77 | 1996-2000
13 | Pierre Turgeon | 74 | 1996-2000
14 | Jarome Iginla | 74 | 2007-2011
15 | Evgeni Malkin | 73 | 2007-2011
16 | Joe Sakic | 73 | 2001-2006
17 | Marian Gaborik | 72 | 2007-2011
18 | Mats Sundin | 72 | 1996-2000
19 | Daniel Sedin | 72 | 2007-2011
20 | Joe Sakic | 72 | 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.

If we take out peak Gretzky and the non-North Americans:

Pre-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Guy Lafleur | 91 | 1976-1980
2 | Phil Esposito | 90 | 1971-1975
3 | Mario Lemieux | 85 | 1986-1990
4 | Mike Bossy | 78 | 1981-1985
5 | Wayne Gretzky | 73 | 1991-1995
6 | Marcel Dionne | 73 | 1976-1980
7 | Adam Oates | 73 | 1991-1995
8 | Steve Yzerman | 71 | 1986-1990
9 | Bryan Trottier | 71 | 1976-1980

Post-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Eric Lindros | 90 | 1996-2000
2 | Sidney Crosby | 87 | 2007-2011
3 | Joe Thornton | 83 | 2001-2006
4 | John Leclair | 80 | 1996-2000
5 | Paul Kariya | 78 | 1996-2000
6 | Pierre Turgeon | 74 | 1996-2000
7 | Jarome Iginla | 74 | 2007-2011
8 | Joe Sakic | 73 | 2001-2006
9 | Joe Sakic | 72 | 1996-2000

I have no trouble believing Lindros and Crosby were as good or better on a per-game even strength basis than Lafleur and Esposito were.

It's been shown that first liners' proportion of (total and) ES points changed from the 80s to more recent seasons, but the reasons for such change are important. When players started flocking in droves from overseas, the distribution of forward talent became more top-loaded than it had been previously. It hasn't been shown that it became "easier" for first liners to score points the past two decades, only that they scored a higher proportion than their 80s counterparts.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I ran the numbers for the best forwards in adjusted even strength points over various five year periods since expansion. The purpose was to examine whether there were any era biases remaining after adjusting for scoring level, and to examine where the numbers differ from traditional ATD valuations.

I included all players who played at least 2.5 seasons out of the 5 year period, and ranked them in $ESP/season.

1971-1975

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Phil Esposito | 90
2 | Ken Hodge | 70
3 | Jean Ratelle | 69
4 | Wayne Cashman | 66
5 | Bobby Clarke | 63
6 | Rod Gilbert | 63
7 | Frank Mahovlich | 62
8 | Stan Mikita | 62
9 | Marcel Dionne | 60
10 | Jacques Lemaire | 60
20 | John Bucyk | 55
30 | Vic Hadfield | 52
40 | Derek Sanderson | 49
50 | Danny Grant | 45
75 | Gordon "Red" Berenson | 39
100 | Larry Romanchych | 34

1976-1980

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Guy Lafleur | 91
2 | Marcel Dionne | 73
3 | Bryan Trottier | 71
4 | Darryl Sittler | 70
5 | Steve Shutt | 68
6 | Peter McNab | 64
7 | Gilbert Perreault | 64
8 | Mike Bossy | 63
9 | Jean Ratelle | 62
10 | Jacques Lemaire | 62
20 | Rick Martin | 53
30 | Orest Kindrachuk | 50
40 | Reggie Leach | 48
50 | Stan Mikita | 45
75 | Ric Seiling | 40
100 | Jack Valiquette | 36

1981-1985

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 118
2 | Mike Bossy | 78
3 | Jari Kurri | 74
4 | Peter Stastny | 73
5 | Michel Goulet | 66
6 | Marcel Dionne | 66
7 | Bryan Trottier | 65
8 | Dale Hawerchuk | 61
9 | Glenn Anderson | 60
10 | Denis Savard | 59
20 | Kent Nilsson | 53
30 | Lanny Mcdonald | 50
40 | Real Cloutier | 48
50 | Paul Maclean | 46
75 | Bengt-Ake Gustafsson | 42
100 | Greg Malone | 38

1986-1990

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 113
2 | Mario Lemieux | 85
3 | Steve Yzerman | 71
4 | Jari Kurri | 67
5 | Mark Messier | 65
6 | Luc Robitaille | 65
7 | Denis Savard | 61
8 | Bernie Nicholls | 61
9 | Dino Ciccarelli | 58
10 | Dale Hawerchuk | 57
20 | Doug Gilmour | 52
30 | Kevin Dineen | 49
40 | Tom Fergus | 48
50 | Jim Peplinski | 46
75 | Pat Verbeek | 43
100 | Sylvain Turgeon | 39

1991-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 73
2 | Adam Oates | 73
3 | Jaromir Jagr | 72
4 | Cam Neely | 69
5 | Steve Yzerman | 68
6 | Alexei Zhamnov | 68
7 | Mark Recchi | 67
8 | Joe Sakic | 67
9 | Teemu Selanne | 67
10 | Luc Robitaille | 66
20 | Theoren Fleury | 61
30 | Jeremy Roenick | 55
40 | Valeri Zelepukin | 51
50 | Mike Ridley | 49
75 | Stephan Lebeau | 45
100 | John Druce | 40

1996-2000

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Jaromir Jagr | 104
2 | Eric Lindros | 90
3 | Teemu Selanne | 82
4 | John Leclair | 80
5 | Paul Kariya | 78
6 | Peter Forsberg | 77
7 | Pavel Bure | 77
8 | Pierre Turgeon | 74
9 | Mats Sundin | 72
10 | Joe Sakic | 72
20 | Alexander Mogilny | 64
30 | Gary Roberts | 58
40 | Vincent Damphousse | 53
50 | Daniel Alfredsson | 50
75 | Jason Arnott | 46
100 | Niklas Sundstrom | 43

2001-2006

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Peter Forsberg | 84
2 | Jaromir Jagr | 83
3 | Joe Thornton | 83
4 | Joe Sakic | 73
5 | Alex Tanguay | 70
6 | Patrik Elias | 69
7 | Zigmund Palffy | 68
8 | Pavol Demitra | 68
9 | Markus Naslund | 67
10 | Glen Murray | 66
20 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 62
30 | Saku Koivu | 60
40 | Alexei Yashin | 56
50 | Keith Primeau | 53
75 | Radek Dvorak | 49
100 | Rod Brind'Amour | 45

2007-2011

Rank | Player | $ESP
1 | Sidney Crosby | 87
2 | Alex Ovechkin | 85
3 | Jarome Iginla | 74
4 | Evgeni Malkin | 73
5 | Marian Gaborik | 72
6 | Daniel Sedin | 72
7 | Henrik Sedin | 72
8 | Martin St. Louis | 69
9 | Pavel Datsyuk | 69
10 | Jason Spezza | 67
20 | Zach Parise | 61
30 | Marc Savard | 58
40 | Steven Stamkos | 56
50 | Olli Jokinen | 53
75 | Phil Kessel | 49
100 | Andrew Ladd | 45

Looking at the different eras, there appears to be a sharp break in traditional ATD perception and adjusted even strength scoring in the mid-90s. 8 players from the 1996-2000 period had higher numbers than anyone from the 1991-1995 period - but the 1991-1995 group was drafted higher on average.

And if we look at the top 5-year periods pre-1995 and post-1995, the difference in the numbers vs traditional ATD perception is striking.

Pre-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 118 | 1981-1985
2 | Wayne Gretzky | 113 | 1986-1990
3 | Guy Lafleur | 91 | 1976-1980
4 | Phil Esposito | 90 | 1971-1975
5 | Mario Lemieux | 85 | 1986-1990
6 | Mike Bossy | 78 | 1981-1985
7 | Jari Kurri | 74 | 1981-1985
8 | Peter Stastny | 73 | 1981-1985
9 | Wayne Gretzky | 73 | 1991-1995
10 | Marcel Dionne | 73 | 1976-1980
11 | Adam Oates | 73 | 1991-1995
12 | Jaromir Jagr | 72 | 1991-1995
13 | Steve Yzerman | 71 | 1986-1990
14 | Bryan Trottier | 71 | 1976-1980
15 | Ken Hodge | 70 | 1971-1975
16 | Darryl Sittler | 70 | 1976-1980
17 | Cam Neely | 69 | 1991-1995
18 | Jean Ratelle | 69 | 1971-1975
19 | Steve Yzerman | 68 | 1991-1995
20 | Steve Shutt | 68 | 1976-1980

Post-1995

Rank | Player | $ESP | Years
1 | Jaromir Jagr | 104 | 1996-2000
2 | Eric Lindros | 90 | 1996-2000
3 | Sidney Crosby | 87 | 2007-2011
4 | Alex Ovechkin | 85 | 2007-2011
5 | Peter Forsberg | 84 | 2001-2006
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 83 | 2001-2006
7 | Joe Thornton | 83 | 2001-2006
8 | Teemu Selanne | 82 | 1996-2000
9 | John Leclair | 80 | 1996-2000
10 | Paul Kariya | 78 | 1996-2000
11 | Peter Forsberg | 77 | 1996-2000
12 | Pavel Bure | 77 | 1996-2000
13 | Pierre Turgeon | 74 | 1996-2000
14 | Jarome Iginla | 74 | 2007-2011
15 | Evgeni Malkin | 73 | 2007-2011
16 | Joe Sakic | 73 | 2001-2006
17 | Marian Gaborik | 72 | 2007-2011
18 | Mats Sundin | 72 | 1996-2000
19 | Daniel Sedin | 72 | 2007-2011
20 | Joe Sakic | 72 | 1996-2000

After the top 5, the post-1995 group's numbers are better all the way down the list. The median draft position for the pre-1995 group is Steve Yzerman at 39. The median draft position for the post-1995 group is midway between Jarome Iginla (111) and Eric Lindros (116).

So, if you are going to use adjusted even strength points, be aware that for post-1995 players the results differ quite a bit from traditional ATD standards.

Could the increased number of teams account for part of the better numbers? ie more top line positions available than previously?

Also as a 2nd point the role of Dmen has become more defensive 1st and less offensive, at least at ES, could some of the previous ES points from those Dmen be going to top forwards on each team?

I don't know the answers to these questions but I did notice that the number and frequency of Dmen in top 50 scoring from year to year went down drastically during Lidstroms career (on an old Bourque/Lidstrom thread).

It seems plausible though.

 

[#66]

Where are you guys finding PP assist totals?

Another thing to remember about current players is that they play less mins a game that the older players. Top player now, like Sid and Ovy, play about 20-23 mins per game as opposed to Gretz and Lemieux's 30-35 min nights. Nevermind Espo playing 40.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Where are you guys finding PP assist totals?

There are spreadsheets floating around. This should link to a good one: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1278617 I believe overpass's spreadsheet is the source for the adjusted numbers in the OP here.

I think hockey-reference.com finally started showing PP assists, too.

Another thing to remember about current players is that they play less mins a game that the older players. Top player now, like Sid and Ovy, play about 20-23 mins per game as opposed to Gretz and Lemieux's 30-35 min nights. Nevermind Espo playing 40.

Those numbers are probably the max that Gretzky/Lemieux/Espo played. Their average minutes per game were almost certainly much lower.

 

[#66]

There are spreadsheets floating around. This should link to a good one: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1278617 I believe overpass's spreadsheet is the source for the adjusted numbers in the OP here.

I think hockey-reference.com finally started showing PP assists, too.



Those numbers are probably the max that Gretzky/Lemieux/Espo played. Their average minutes per game were almost certainly much lower.

Thanks for the link.

As someone who watch a lot of 80's Gretz and Lemieux, that was about average for them. The game was more about 3 lines and played at a slower pace back then. A lot of the stars played around 25-30 mins a night.