booyakasha
Registered User
He's shown to be a real good Dman, so no reason to think he can't.
This season though, he just started bad, and hasn't recovered.
Player Discussion Adam Larsson (Mod Warning in OP)
- Thread starter herm1978
- Start date
This season though, he just started bad, and hasn't recovered.
VoluntaryDom
Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
booyakasha
Registered User
He satarted the year with some really bad reads, and bad pinches which lead to goals against...then he trys to overcompensate which completly derails him.
.. and I think mistakes compounded into fractured confidence.
no reason he can't turn it around if he simplifies his play, and starts hitting the target, and confidence slowly increases.
Eberle wasn't run out of town for not being physical. He was run out of town for not showing up.
There are non-physical players that know how to take the puck away from the opposition or at least pressure the opposing puck carriers. Eberle showed us that he either didn't know how to do this or didn't care to try.
Eye of Ra
Grandmaster General of the International boards
If he can learn to get his shot off from more areas of the ice, I don't see why not.
NotNotALeafsFan
Registered User
Zaddy
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2013
- 13,058
- 5,850
Meh, why mess with what works?
Nurse-Larsson
Sekera-Russell
Klefbom-Benning
Three quite capable pairings. Give offensive zone push to Klef and Benning.
EDIT: Forgot about Davidson, might have him in there instead of Benning or have them rotate.
Last edited:
harpoon
Registered User
- Dec 23, 2005
- 14,276
- 11,536
Uhhh ... This is a thread about Adam Larsson. The I hate Eberle thread is somewhere else.
The way Nurse has been playing...if Larsson is at 90% or better on his return, i would definitely like Nurse paired with Adam. I think Nurse has been our top dog in quite a few games and with Larsson at his side...he can continue his trajectory. I still believe, even in an off year, Larsson is the Dman i am most comfortable with in every situation and definitely the guy i want helping Nurse achieve his potential.
backhandsauce
Registered User
- Oct 19, 2009
- 4,735
- 1,499
Larsson is a stud and is still young. He’s going to play in this league till he’s 40. He’s a horse. I still think he has some untapped offense too. I’d like to see him get a shot on the PP at some point.
McFlyingV
Registered User
The Nurse-Larsson pairing is money. Great shutdown pair that can move the puck well and skate it out. Thats the pairing I want out there when McDavid line is out because they will absolutely massacre the other team possession wise, and it gets McDavid more touches with the puck because they rarely get hemmed in.
Gonna be interesting to see the D core when everyone's healthy. Sekera will anchor the 2nd pair, but I'm not sure with who. He made a great pairing with Russell last year, but could also look good with Davidson or Klefbom. Actually wouldn't mind a Klefbom-Davidson pairing with Benning and Russell fighting with the spot with Sekera.
Sekera did a good job covering Russell last season so i expect to see the same this year.
He has had some time on the PP in blow outs and when the PP really REALLY crapped the bed. He is simple and effective. i seem to recall him even being used on a PP late in a playoff game and made a couple big blue line plays/reads to keep pressure on for what was maybe one of the best PPs i had ever seen. I think it was versus SJ. His shot was simple and to the net...with Looch and others right there to bang. I imagine Woodcroft might ruin his naturl PP instincts of "create mayhem" though. I thought his Powerplay game was simple, effective.
he is an intelligent guy who can read plays and make adjustments too. so i suspect if he sees we are dominating the wall and not-so-much net front...than he will adapt
It's so refreshing having Adam back in the line up. The physicality, the way he separates his man from the puck. Just the calmness and steadiness he brings to the line up. He's a favorite of mine for sure.
Asiaoil
Vperod Bizona!
Woodguy has an outstanding bunch of info in today's Lowetide on using relative GF% to assess dmen - and as some of you know - I think using GF% with lots of context is one of the best tools out there to assess the net contribution of what players create AND what they give up.
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Adam Larsson is the stud dman on this team, and good god, if you gave him an equally good 2 way partner who has a bit more offense in his game they would be a legit top tier pair in the league. Some real food for thought on what we should do with the defense - and see below for the start of the conversation.
-------------------------
If you were to look at a single metric that tells you how a player changes the goal share for his team when he is on the ice, that metric is Relative Teammate GF%.
Its not a “player on”/player off” metric like normal Relative metrics, rather its the aggregation of the WOWYS.
I think its a very interesting and informative stat.
Like all stats, its needs a lot of context.
In this case, very good players on bad teams will always look very good as their team mates’ GF% will be better when on with the better players.
You also have to be careful about Dmen. A Dman’s results are also that of his partner, and I don’t know how to get Relative Team mate GF% for pairs of players.
You also need large sample sizes. One season is not enough to account for PDO heaters etc.
You also need to discount the results of 3rd pairing Dmen a bit on when they play on a team when the coach hard matches Dpairs (which is usually all teams)
When a top 6 forward plays with a 3rd pairing Dman its usually vs lesser comp and a top 6 forward will have a better GF% vs lesser comp.
All that being said, here is the EDM results of 5v5 Relative Teammate GF% using the last two years as the sample:
(all traded players only have their EDM results in the sample)
Player RelT GF%
CONNOR.MCDAVID 15.4
PATRICK.MAROON 4.8
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 4.3
JESSE.PULJUJARVI 4.2
JORDAN.EBERLE 3.8
LEON.DRAISAITL 0.7
ZACK.KASSIAN 0.3
RYAN.STROME 0.3
MILAN.LUCIC 0.2
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS -0.6
MIKE.CAMMALLERI -1.0
JUJHAR.KHAIRA -4.3
ERIC.GRYBA -5.6
DRAKE.CAGGIULA -7.1
BENOIT.POULIOT -7.2
MARK.LETESTU -7.4
MATT.BENNING 7.4
DARNELL.NURSE 6.4
ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
KRIS.RUSSELL -2.1
OSCAR.KLEFBOM -2.1
ANDREJ.SEKERA -4.3
BRANDON.DAVIDSON -5.9
Some thoughts on these results:
1) McDavid is from another dimension.
2) RNH had tough matchups for most of last year and some of this year, but had better help this year (esp. with McDavid….duh)
RNH’s RelTGF% from year to year:
16/17 -9.24
17/18 +9.20
Wild. Maybe leave RNH on 97’s wing eh?
3) Sekera is similar to RNH, but in reverse. His injury was a real bitch:
16/17 +5.38
17/18 -28.1
4) Adam Larsson is the best Dman on the team.
Look at Nurse’s and Klefbom’s GF% splits with him over the last two years:
16/17
Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF
17/18
Klef w/ Larsson 39.1% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 44.93 GF
Larsson w/o Klef 53.4% GF
That’s crazy.
Klefbom might be the player to trade to get the 2RD.
His best season was last year and he was still below 45% GF away from Larsson. Not good.
I like Klef, but I think its becoming clear that he gives up more than he creates.
To be fair to Klef, he was hurt this year, but last year he wasn’t and his injury history is growing…..
Might be the exact right guy to cash in this summer.
Nurse’s splits with Larsson this year:
Nurse w/ Larsson 56.9%
Nurse w/o Larsson 53.7%
Larsson w/o Nurse 39.5% (see results with Klef above)
5) The Drake Caggiula Experience should probably end.
16/17 -1.99
17/18 -10.0
6) Benning results are always way better than the visual
7) Despite not scoring at all, Lucic didn’t drag down GF% too much for his team mates
16/17 +1.68
17/18 -0.52
8) Russell rode the PDO pony hard last year, not so much this year:
16/17 +2.47
17/18 -4.98
Interesting stuff.
Not the burning bush, but interesting nonetheless
I prefer to use actual goal share when the sample is large enough rather than Expected Goal metrics.
I find expected goal metrics over state the value of shot volume vis a vis goals.
There is skill is scoring goals and stopping goals that shot metrics don’t capture.
They’re great for what they are, but they have their limitations.
They are still the best we have for predicting future goal share, but I don’t think they describe play as well as goal share in 2 season + samples.
They’re great in samples smaller than a season though.
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Adam Larsson is the stud dman on this team, and good god, if you gave him an equally good 2 way partner who has a bit more offense in his game they would be a legit top tier pair in the league. Some real food for thought on what we should do with the defense - and see below for the start of the conversation.
-------------------------
If you were to look at a single metric that tells you how a player changes the goal share for his team when he is on the ice, that metric is Relative Teammate GF%.
Its not a “player on”/player off” metric like normal Relative metrics, rather its the aggregation of the WOWYS.
I think its a very interesting and informative stat.
Like all stats, its needs a lot of context.
In this case, very good players on bad teams will always look very good as their team mates’ GF% will be better when on with the better players.
You also have to be careful about Dmen. A Dman’s results are also that of his partner, and I don’t know how to get Relative Team mate GF% for pairs of players.
You also need large sample sizes. One season is not enough to account for PDO heaters etc.
You also need to discount the results of 3rd pairing Dmen a bit on when they play on a team when the coach hard matches Dpairs (which is usually all teams)
When a top 6 forward plays with a 3rd pairing Dman its usually vs lesser comp and a top 6 forward will have a better GF% vs lesser comp.
All that being said, here is the EDM results of 5v5 Relative Teammate GF% using the last two years as the sample:
(all traded players only have their EDM results in the sample)
Player RelT GF%
CONNOR.MCDAVID 15.4
PATRICK.MAROON 4.8
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 4.3
JESSE.PULJUJARVI 4.2
JORDAN.EBERLE 3.8
LEON.DRAISAITL 0.7
ZACK.KASSIAN 0.3
RYAN.STROME 0.3
MILAN.LUCIC 0.2
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS -0.6
MIKE.CAMMALLERI -1.0
JUJHAR.KHAIRA -4.3
ERIC.GRYBA -5.6
DRAKE.CAGGIULA -7.1
BENOIT.POULIOT -7.2
MARK.LETESTU -7.4
MATT.BENNING 7.4
DARNELL.NURSE 6.4
ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
KRIS.RUSSELL -2.1
OSCAR.KLEFBOM -2.1
ANDREJ.SEKERA -4.3
BRANDON.DAVIDSON -5.9
Some thoughts on these results:
1) McDavid is from another dimension.
2) RNH had tough matchups for most of last year and some of this year, but had better help this year (esp. with McDavid….duh)
RNH’s RelTGF% from year to year:
16/17 -9.24
17/18 +9.20
Wild. Maybe leave RNH on 97’s wing eh?
3) Sekera is similar to RNH, but in reverse. His injury was a real bitch:
16/17 +5.38
17/18 -28.1
4) Adam Larsson is the best Dman on the team.
Look at Nurse’s and Klefbom’s GF% splits with him over the last two years:
16/17
Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF
17/18
Klef w/ Larsson 39.1% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 44.93 GF
Larsson w/o Klef 53.4% GF
That’s crazy.
Klefbom might be the player to trade to get the 2RD.
His best season was last year and he was still below 45% GF away from Larsson. Not good.
I like Klef, but I think its becoming clear that he gives up more than he creates.
To be fair to Klef, he was hurt this year, but last year he wasn’t and his injury history is growing…..
Might be the exact right guy to cash in this summer.
Nurse’s splits with Larsson this year:
Nurse w/ Larsson 56.9%
Nurse w/o Larsson 53.7%
Larsson w/o Nurse 39.5% (see results with Klef above)
5) The Drake Caggiula Experience should probably end.
16/17 -1.99
17/18 -10.0
6) Benning results are always way better than the visual
7) Despite not scoring at all, Lucic didn’t drag down GF% too much for his team mates
16/17 +1.68
17/18 -0.52
8) Russell rode the PDO pony hard last year, not so much this year:
16/17 +2.47
17/18 -4.98
Interesting stuff.
Not the burning bush, but interesting nonetheless
I prefer to use actual goal share when the sample is large enough rather than Expected Goal metrics.
I find expected goal metrics over state the value of shot volume vis a vis goals.
There is skill is scoring goals and stopping goals that shot metrics don’t capture.
They’re great for what they are, but they have their limitations.
They are still the best we have for predicting future goal share, but I don’t think they describe play as well as goal share in 2 season + samples.
They’re great in samples smaller than a season though.
MettleMcOiler
5-14-6-1
Mcnotloilersfan
I'm here, I'm bored
I still think OEL-Larsson would be one of the best pairings in the league. I would trade Nurse + in a heartbeat to make it happen.
MettleMcOiler
5-14-6-1
Would rather be Klefbom, but not completely opposed trading Nurse for OEL.
Mcnotloilersfan
I'm here, I'm bored
I hope Klef can be that guy too. Which is why if we get OEL, I wouldn't want Klef to be the dman that we move in the deal.
Nurse is on an upward trajectory. I'm not sure it would be worth losing him given cap / contract situations. When is the last time we really drafted a good defenseman that we developed in our own system? I think Nurse is the type of player we need to keep to grow as an Oiler and hope that he wants to stay here for the long term if he continues improving his game
Mr Positive
Cap Crunch Incoming
- Nov 20, 2013
- 36,075
- 16,515
I think that ship is sailing. I was hopeful to get OEL somehow, but Arizona has good vibes going now. True, they are low in the standings, but Raanta had a great year and re-signed, and their last quarter or so they seemed to hit their stride and hockey was fun for them again. I bet we see OEL re-sign this July when he becomes eligible to re-sign
MettleMcOiler
5-14-6-1
This is also why I am little hesitant in trading Nurse, there are signs that he may become a consistent top 2 d but I'm still little skeptical about some of his decision making for him to get there.
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