Drew75
Registered User
- Sep 5, 2005
- 2,518
- 0
Times are changing in Leaf Nation, and Shanahan’s management team is leading the charge with a whole (sort of) new approach towards building a team. In reality, it appears that they are using a similar method that Yzerman employed upon his arrival in Tampa Bay, and one could argue that Detroit has been likely doing this for decades. The change in approach is subtle (which Dubas calls “The Programâ€), and requires a different way of looking at players.
Traditionally, NHL Teams tend to build in a backwards method – starting with a vision of what it considers a competitive team, then drafting and acquiring players in an attempt to fulfill that vision on the roster. Everyone has heard the standard mantras that a team should be built ‘from the net out’ and ‘up the middle’, and thus teams search out those elusive top pairing defensemen and first line centres. A team needs size on the wings? Start drafting big wingers to fill those holes on the roster. The only challenge with this approach is you could miss something – for example, like in a card game, you want an ace to make a hand so badly, and you miss the king that could have made a different – but equally effective hand.
This is where the Leafs current approach differs, and while some traditionalists may struggle with it, the approach itself is both creative and intriguing.
To start with, forget the final roster. Don’t worry about what it may look like, what it should look like, or who will be on it. That will become important, but it’s not at the moment, and the first big change is to stop allowing those ‘end goals’ or the vision of future roster impact current decisions.
The second, but related change, is to view players differently as well. The Leafs are no longer viewing players in terms of where they will fit into the future roster, but simply as assets in the same manner as stocks or investments. Just like stocks, when a team is drafting an 18 year old, they are gambling on the future value of that player.
What the Leafs have shown in their new approach, is that want to draft as often as possible, and they want to select the player they feel will have the highest possible future value. Like stocks, when a player is drafted his value is set by the round or number at which he is selected. The player drafted at number 65 and the player drafted at number 67 leave the draft floor with a virtually identical asset value, but not for long.
This is where the Leafs have realized that they have some control over the future value of a young player by providing that player every possible opportunity to reach their maximum potential. Enter the new Sports Science Department, the enhanced relationship with the Orlando Solar Bears, and a full analytics staff. This is also driving the decision around which player to select. The Leafs are drafting not only kids with high end skill, but kids with compete and determination who will be willing to do what it takes to reach their full potential.
So – a player taken in a later round, such as Dmytro Timashov has high end skill and a great work ethic. When drafted, he’s worth essentially a 5th round pick. The Leafs can now take some time and develop this kid with the hopes that reaches his potential of a top 6 dynamic winger. If successful, that 5th round pick just increased in value to a 1st round pick / good prospect in a position of need (the value of a top 6 dynamic winger).
The Leafs are currently working on building asset wealth within the organization – without worrying about which will be on the final roster. They are essentially trying to acquire as many of these assets as they possibly can and turn them into greater value assets in the future. If the team can have a stockpile of top 6 forwards or top 4 Defensemen, they can use that wealth to build whatever team they wish. If you have 3 or 4 Tyler Johnson type wingers – you can keep one and move the rest.
How much value does a young Tyler Johnson on an ELC have on the market? Don’t get me wrong, some of these drafted kids will end up wearing the blue and white and be part of the final solution, but many will be used as banked assets to acquire pieces that are needed elsewhere.
See, rather than focusing on something like “we need centersâ€, when entering the 3rd round of this past draft, and going for a player like Dergachyov – he’s nice and big, but his most likely development path is to that of a #3 checking centre (let’s be realistic – if he has any sort of chance to be a top 6 centre in the NHL, at 6’4 210lbs, he wouldn’t have been there in the 3rd round). Just ahead of him, the Leafs picked what they feel can turn into an offensive top 6 winger and an effective, mobile top 4 defender. From a pure asset wealth perspective – the top 6 winger has > value than the mobile top 4 D, which has > value than a 3rd line checking centre.
The Leafs build will be simple – they are first accumulating as many undervalued / affordable assets they can in any way they can. Once they have acquired significant asset wealth, they will both determine which assets they will keep, and which can be moved for more appropriate assets to build with.
This is also applied to the big club, with assets like Parenteau, Hunwick, and Spaling. These guys are brought at lower value due to various circumstances – provided better ice time, great coaching, and the best support money can buy. If even ¾ of them can turn thing around, they can become 2nd – 5th round draft picks – which can be used to select even more high-end skill guys, etc, etc. (Spaling becomes a 5th, the 5th becomes a Timashov, the Timashov becomes a top 6 winger, the top 6 winger becomes ? )
Now – before everyone starts screaming that you need to draft that #1center and #1defensemen – no one has said they won’t or even haven’t already. It’s a process, and it’s not done yet – but it’ll sure be interesting to watch. I think the key though is that we should stop worrying about where these kids pencil into our future lineup, and more about what value they will have in the future. It my strong belief that is how the Leafs Brass are doing it.
Traditionally, NHL Teams tend to build in a backwards method – starting with a vision of what it considers a competitive team, then drafting and acquiring players in an attempt to fulfill that vision on the roster. Everyone has heard the standard mantras that a team should be built ‘from the net out’ and ‘up the middle’, and thus teams search out those elusive top pairing defensemen and first line centres. A team needs size on the wings? Start drafting big wingers to fill those holes on the roster. The only challenge with this approach is you could miss something – for example, like in a card game, you want an ace to make a hand so badly, and you miss the king that could have made a different – but equally effective hand.
This is where the Leafs current approach differs, and while some traditionalists may struggle with it, the approach itself is both creative and intriguing.
To start with, forget the final roster. Don’t worry about what it may look like, what it should look like, or who will be on it. That will become important, but it’s not at the moment, and the first big change is to stop allowing those ‘end goals’ or the vision of future roster impact current decisions.
The second, but related change, is to view players differently as well. The Leafs are no longer viewing players in terms of where they will fit into the future roster, but simply as assets in the same manner as stocks or investments. Just like stocks, when a team is drafting an 18 year old, they are gambling on the future value of that player.
What the Leafs have shown in their new approach, is that want to draft as often as possible, and they want to select the player they feel will have the highest possible future value. Like stocks, when a player is drafted his value is set by the round or number at which he is selected. The player drafted at number 65 and the player drafted at number 67 leave the draft floor with a virtually identical asset value, but not for long.
This is where the Leafs have realized that they have some control over the future value of a young player by providing that player every possible opportunity to reach their maximum potential. Enter the new Sports Science Department, the enhanced relationship with the Orlando Solar Bears, and a full analytics staff. This is also driving the decision around which player to select. The Leafs are drafting not only kids with high end skill, but kids with compete and determination who will be willing to do what it takes to reach their full potential.
So – a player taken in a later round, such as Dmytro Timashov has high end skill and a great work ethic. When drafted, he’s worth essentially a 5th round pick. The Leafs can now take some time and develop this kid with the hopes that reaches his potential of a top 6 dynamic winger. If successful, that 5th round pick just increased in value to a 1st round pick / good prospect in a position of need (the value of a top 6 dynamic winger).
The Leafs are currently working on building asset wealth within the organization – without worrying about which will be on the final roster. They are essentially trying to acquire as many of these assets as they possibly can and turn them into greater value assets in the future. If the team can have a stockpile of top 6 forwards or top 4 Defensemen, they can use that wealth to build whatever team they wish. If you have 3 or 4 Tyler Johnson type wingers – you can keep one and move the rest.
How much value does a young Tyler Johnson on an ELC have on the market? Don’t get me wrong, some of these drafted kids will end up wearing the blue and white and be part of the final solution, but many will be used as banked assets to acquire pieces that are needed elsewhere.
See, rather than focusing on something like “we need centersâ€, when entering the 3rd round of this past draft, and going for a player like Dergachyov – he’s nice and big, but his most likely development path is to that of a #3 checking centre (let’s be realistic – if he has any sort of chance to be a top 6 centre in the NHL, at 6’4 210lbs, he wouldn’t have been there in the 3rd round). Just ahead of him, the Leafs picked what they feel can turn into an offensive top 6 winger and an effective, mobile top 4 defender. From a pure asset wealth perspective – the top 6 winger has > value than the mobile top 4 D, which has > value than a 3rd line checking centre.
The Leafs build will be simple – they are first accumulating as many undervalued / affordable assets they can in any way they can. Once they have acquired significant asset wealth, they will both determine which assets they will keep, and which can be moved for more appropriate assets to build with.
This is also applied to the big club, with assets like Parenteau, Hunwick, and Spaling. These guys are brought at lower value due to various circumstances – provided better ice time, great coaching, and the best support money can buy. If even ¾ of them can turn thing around, they can become 2nd – 5th round draft picks – which can be used to select even more high-end skill guys, etc, etc. (Spaling becomes a 5th, the 5th becomes a Timashov, the Timashov becomes a top 6 winger, the top 6 winger becomes ? )
Now – before everyone starts screaming that you need to draft that #1center and #1defensemen – no one has said they won’t or even haven’t already. It’s a process, and it’s not done yet – but it’ll sure be interesting to watch. I think the key though is that we should stop worrying about where these kids pencil into our future lineup, and more about what value they will have in the future. It my strong belief that is how the Leafs Brass are doing it.
