289 Forwards scored 10 or more goals last year. 32 teams x 12 forwards = 384. So there's roughly 100 players that won't meet that bar. Roughly 3 per team on average.
In other words, 4th liners aren't expected to score 10 goals.
Interesting way of breaking down stats.
It's also a great methodology to follow if you plan to ice a team that is 'average' (median).
Not that I looked this up, or care too deeply, but you might want to compare the differences between contending teams (top 5 teams) vs bottom 5, and see if you notice any difference.
And as a second excercise, see how many of those non-10 goal scoring forwards who are free agents are extended, or if these contending teams try to improve on them?
Also.. you're looking at raw stats, whereas I'm including players who "track" for 10 goals in a season
More specifically, players who score 0.122 goals per game.
I honestly feel forwards who can't hit the 0.122 GPG are not NHL caliber players.
Let me run through the first example:
Last year the Bruins had 16 forwards who paced for 10 goals.
The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2022-23 Boston Bruins playing in the NHL.
www.hockeydb.com
The 2 notable forwards who did NOT pace for 10 goals?
AJ Greer - now a Flame
Craig Smith - Now a Star
Interesting thing about Smith, is that he did pace for 10 after being traded to Washington, and has a very long career of scoring 20. He's 34, and Boston didn't wanna make that bet.
So... EVERY Boston Bruin forward, and several replacements scored at a 10 goal per game pace.