Aaron Ekblad, too much, too fast

[FlaPanthers11]

The team isn't in a position to sign or trade for additional players with long-term deals this season because the effect his contract has next year. The team is already handcuffed.

That's great but if he starts playing like he's worth the deal between now and when the deal sets in then the team will gladly be "handcuffed" by a number 1 d man.

 

[Sky04]

He's going to be elite but there's going to be growing pains along the way, not sure why they rushed to sign him to a long term deal that fast.

He's had 2 good seasons, not great and nothing to give him leverage over the next signing, Florida easily could've signed for a few cheap years and try to build a contender in that time.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I don't understand why this deal gets such scrutiny. Considering where the cap is now the deal is in line with what other top flight young defensemen have gotten. Karlsson, Doughty, Petriangelo, etc. Unlike some of those deals, it is 8 years long so it buys more UFA years.

There are some aspects of the deal that are questionable on a greater level like offering a bonus during the lockout year as GMs doing that will bite owners in the ass and remove leverage for the lockout.

 

[scrubadam]

So either we overpay to lock up his prime years or we wait, have him earn it then reward him so we're overpaying him past his prime years? Can't have it both ways. Management took the smart gamble in my opinion based on his play so far.

Well I think it would of been better to for him to take a bridge at about 2-4 and then sign him longer at 6-9 rather than than his contract now which could take years for him to live up to. Nothing to do with his talent, Ekblad is very talented but it would be better to have him on cheaper deals until he gets to 25 or older.

And I think that for all young players. Don't like these long term big money deals gets rid of the savings you have with RFA's. If they were all like Gallagher deals fine, but once you start paying 6+ on long term you aren't really saving that much money by giving up on a bridge deal. Just my opinion.

 

[Spade]

For me, the contract concerns are simply this: is he worth $7.5 million per year, on average, over the term of the deal? If the answer is yes, it's a fair deal. If the answer is a no, it's not a great deal either for the team or for the player.

I can see him being one of the top 10 blueliners in the game at some point, absolutely, the question is whether or not he will be a top 10 player at his position next year? Because most second contracts that work out tend to end up looking like bargains, while with third contracts the overpayment happens after the Cup window. This deal puts the overpayment prior to the Cup window. I don't believe he is currently one of the top 10 defensemen in the NHL, at least not next year. And I don't believe the cap is or will be rising fast enough to offset that value in the future like it did for Tavares, Karlsson, Seguin, Hall, Ekman-Larsson, Kane and Toews coming out of their first contracts.

The biggest complaint I can have is that it looks like the team bargained against itself, because if he wanted a Doughty contract he could have had it exactly, and it would have been fair and reasonable for both sides. He gets a little overpaid for the first couple of years relative to actual play and then is underpaid in his prime, which could afford the team savings that help the team build a contending roster and raise his status as a potential Cup champion, before getting a still very lucrative third contract that likely results in him being paid fairly before tailing off and being overpaid relative to ability.

The extra $4 million over the life of the deal doesn't look like much, but it's just another one of those little things that handcuff a team's options in terms of managing the cap. It might be the difference between getting a third liner player or a second line player when the team is at its peak. When you've won a Cup or 2 and are post-window, I don't think fans mind as much paying guys for past success, but now Florida isn't saving money in the shorter term and it's not like Ekblad will give them any major discount at 29 either.

I don't fault Ekblad, he has a short window to earn major money, but this is how teams start mismanaging the cap, except that the Panthers haven't won anything yet to justify paying players what they are worth. Sounds bad but it's the reality. The best teams and the Cup winners tend to have a lot of players playing above their pay grade, and oftentimes those guys playing above their pay grade are their best players too, but Ekblad now needs to be a top-3 player at his position to do that in his case, and that's a lot to ask for out of a 19-year old.



EDIT: Took a more in-depth look at Ekblad's contract, and it's very odd because the Panthers gave a lot of ground in many key areas. There's a pretty hefty signing bonus every year of the contract, the salary jumps up and down at basically random intervals instead of a steady progression upwards as the player theoretically improves, and there's a no-movement clause the first year it's eligible.

Doughty's contract as a comparison starts at $6,000,000 in salary, slowly rising each year until it peaks at $7,650,000, has no such NMC or NTC at any point and has no signing bonus, his entire contract is based on salary earned over the season. At the time of his contract signing (not when the contract was kicking in), it was worth 10.89% of the salary cap, while Ekblad's at the time of the signing would have taken up 10.27% of the cap.

Now, I like Ekblad, but Doughty had been nominated for a Norris by the time he signed his second contract, so unless you think saving 0.62% of total cap percentage is worth giving up the signing bonuses, NMC and non-linear progression of salary then Ekblad really got a great deal here for himself. I can only imagine that Tom Rowe was drunk out of his mind because there's no other explanation for why this deal is structured the way it is, even if they were trying to make Ekblad sure of his status as the man in Florida.

 

[MessierII]

He will be fine. Kid is a stud.

 

[fredligh]

They gambled a little bit on the fact that while he may not be worth 7.5M now, he'll be worth more than that not too far into the future.

Can someone explain why they gave him this contract so long before his ELC was up? You can argue that he would have developed further and was going to be a top 15 defenseman in the league by the time his ELC was up. But still a lot can happen until then.

And another point is the taxes, Look at Tampas newly signed contracts with Hedman, Stamkos and Kucherov, makes Ekblads contract look even worse. And Risto and Klingberg at 5.4 and 4.25. For me this a bad contract in so many ways. It is like a high risk-medium reward contract

 

[Sky04]

For me, the contract concerns are simply this: is he worth $7.5 million per year, on average, over the term of the deal? If the answer is yes, it's a fair deal. If the answer is a no, it's not a great deal either for the team or for the player.

I can see him being one of the top 10 blueliners in the game at some point, absolutely, the question is whether or not he will be a top 10 player at his position next year? Because most second contracts that work out tend to end up looking like bargains, while with third contracts the overpayment happens after the Cup window. This deal puts the overpayment prior to the Cup window. I don't believe he is currently one of the top 10 defensemen in the NHL, at least not next year. And I don't believe the cap is or will be rising fast enough to offset that value in the future like it did for Tavares, Karlsson, Seguin, Hall, Ekman-Larsson, Kane and Toews coming out of their first contracts.

The biggest complaint I can have is that it looks like the team bargained against itself, because if he wanted a Doughty contract he could have had it exactly, and it would have been fair and reasonable for both sides. He gets a little overpaid for the first couple of years relative to actual play and then is underpaid in his prime, which could afford the team savings that help the team build a contending roster and raise his status as a potential Cup champion, before getting a still very lucrative third contract that likely results in him being paid fairly before tailing off and being overpaid relative to ability.

The extra $4 million over the life of the deal doesn't look like much, but it's just another one of those little things that handcuff a team's options in terms of managing the cap. It might be the difference between getting a third liner player or a second line player when the team is at its peak. When you've won a Cup or 2 and are post-window, I don't think fans mind as much paying guys for past success, but now Florida isn't saving money in the shorter term and it's not like Ekblad will give them any major discount at 29 either.

I don't fault Ekblad, he has a short window to earn major money, but this is how teams start mismanaging the cap, except that the Panthers haven't won anything yet to justify paying players what they are worth. Sounds bad but it's the reality. The best teams and the Cup winners tend to have a lot of players playing above their pay grade, and oftentimes those guys playing above their pay grade are their best players too, but Ekblad now needs to be a top-3 player at his position to do that in his case, and that's a lot to ask for out of a 19-year old.



EDIT: Took a more in-depth look at Ekblad's contract, and it's very odd because the Panthers gave a lot of ground in many key areas. There's a pretty hefty signing bonus every year of the contract, the salary jumps up and down at basically random intervals instead of a steady progression upwards as the player theoretically improves, and there's a no-movement clause the first year it's eligible.

Doughty's contract as a comparison starts at $6,000,000 in salary, slowly rising each year until it peaks at $7,650,000, has no such NMC or NTC at any point and has no signing bonus, his entire contract is based on salary earned over the season. At the time of his contract signing (not when the contract was kicking in), it was worth 10.89% of the salary cap, while Ekblad's at the time of the signing would have taken up 10.27% of the cap.

Now, I like Ekblad, but Doughty had been nominated for a Norris by the time he signed his second contract, so unless you think saving 0.62% of total cap percentage is worth giving up the signing bonuses, NMC and non-linear progression of salary then Ekblad really got a great deal here for himself. I can only imagine that Tom Rowe was drunk out of his mind because there's no other explanation for why this deal is structured the way it is, even if they were trying to make Ekblad sure of his status as the man in Florida.

Exactly, I don't think it's going to be a "bad" deal but a much more cap efficient one could've been done. As a TB fan, we've been extremely lucky to have Hedman at 4m the previous 5 years, had he made 3.5m more this season, we wouldn't have been able to sign Killorn and Kucherov together. That caphit is going to matter once you need to expand your depth.

 

[Sky04]

Can someone explain why they gave him this contract so long before his ELC was up? You can argue that he would have developed further and was going to be a top 15 defenseman in the league by the time his ELC was up. But still a lot can happen until then.

And another point is the taxes, Look at Tampas newly signed contracts with Hedman, Stamkos and Kucherov, makes Ekblads contract look even worse. And Risto and Klingberg at 5.4 and 4.25. For me this a bad contract in so many ways. It is like a high risk-medium reward contract

It's not a "bad" contract in terms of value, because Ekblad will be worth it by year 2 or 3. But as far as cap management goes, why on Earth did they sign him to a long term deal with a high caphit so early.

He didn't even have "great" seasons to leverage them with.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Yeah, lets look at this around game 50.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

It's not a "bad" contract in terms of value, because Ekblad will be worth it by year 2 or 3. But as far as cap management goes, why on Earth did they sign him to a long term deal with a high caphit so early.

He didn't even have "great" seasons to leverage them with.

Kind of the same reason we gave Hedman 4 million so fast, and people yelled "too much! too soon!". Within a season and a half that deal looked like a complete steal.

 

[DickSmehlik]

Who would you rather have?

Ekblad at 7.5 or Jones, Lindhom, Risto at around 5.5?

Ekblad may turn out to be the best of the bunch but I think it is fair to say Florida jumped the gun with his contract.

 

[NotYou]

The advantage of having young, cheap players who are contributors on your team is you don't have to pay them as much as experienced vets. It's how Chicago did it when Kane and Toews did it when they were underpaid. It allowed you to spend elsewhere.

Florida isn't taking advantage of this situation.

And it isn't a "little gamble." It's a pretty big one. He'loves be the 5th highest paid defenseman in the league, which is more than Drew Doughty.

And Chicago is paying for that now with almost 30% of cap space spent on two guys. The ekblad contract was clearly a gamble. They don't expect him to be worth 7.5m today but they do think he would've gotten subban money+ if they went a conventional route. It'll be a few years before judgment can be passed on this one. Their other young guys are on relatively low cap hit contracts so they can afford to overpay ekblad for now

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

Exactly, I don't think it's going to be a "bad" deal but a much more cap efficient one could've been done. As a TB fan, we've been extremely lucky to have Hedman at 4m the previous 5 years, had he made 3.5m more this season, we wouldn't have been able to sign Killorn and Kucherov together. That caphit is going to matter once you need to expand your depth.

On the other side Tamp got into their cap issues with bridge contracts and FA spending. Panthers have their entire core locked up long term, could spend this year in FA and still have plenty of space in years to come to account for prospects.

Again the team is betting on Ekblad and that cap hit will be great with rising ceiling and his skill level.

 

[Rufus]

They gambled a little bit on the fact that while he may not be worth 7.5M now, he'll be worth more than that not too far into the future.

This. If he plays up to his potential for another couple of years, he could be worth 10 mil+. Better to get players of his caliber signed to long term deals at a reasonable cap hit while you can. That contract is going to look really nice in a few years, IMO

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

On the other side Tamp got into their cap issues with bridge contracts and FA spending. Panthers have their entire core locked up long term, could spend this year in FA and still have plenty of space in years to come to account for prospects.

Again the team is betting on Ekblad and that cap hit will be great with rising ceiling and his skill level.

I respectfully disagree about the bridge contracts. If we didn't have Palat and Johnson signed on their bridge deals, we don't have enough room for Stamkos/Kucherov and likely lose some guys a year earlier. It's also looking like Johnson may not be worth the 6 year deal he probably could have earned after his rookie year.

I don't think it's relative to Ekblad at all though. He is the absolute centerpiece of the franchise and will be a fixture in the budget regardless of timing. This is a calculated risk that isn't designed to pay off in year two, but will look favourable later on in the deal.

 

[JarvisFunk]

Who would you rather have?

Ekblad at 7.5 or Jones, Lindhom, Risto at around 5.5?

Ekblad may turn out to be the best of the bunch but I think it is fair to say Florida jumped the gun with his contract.

He is $2 mil "better" than Jones, but not the other two

 

[nbducksfan19]

im sure this was answered, but couldn't find it. How many UFA years does this contract include?

whether it is right or wrong, NHL contracts are so skewed by the value of UFA years. Look at the signings, almost every RFA signing gets praised by HF, and UFA deals get hammered.

 

[I am not exposed]

So everyone knows Ekblad was extended for 8 years at 7,5 mil per year. Surprisingly many on this board seemed to be fine with it. I have watched many Florida games last season and this season. I was very surprised Florida gave a contract that is that huge so fast. Even last year he was beaten to pucks and even downright made fool of. Now that's not rare for a young defensemen but the same thing has happened this year even more often and has looked even downright brutal.

Having read Florida's GDT i know there are many fans that aren't that happy with the contract. At the moment he's not defensively even close to what he's going to be paid. The biggest weakness is his skating. Blatantly speaking it's bad, not really bad but just bad especially for a guy who just made a deal like that. I don't remember a defenceman who had as bad skating as Ekblad but was given a franchise contract. He's not even close skating wise to the other young coming star defensemen like Lindholm, Ristolainen, Rielly etc. If Ekblad has to turn and defend at the same time the guy looks like old Orpik. Then there's the concussion issues that he has..


Did Florida got impatient with one good season From Ekblad even though his shortcomings were always quite clear?

Were you reading my posts! lol

With the Lindholm signing, the Ekblad contract looks even more ridiculous. Lindholm is a far more accomplished defenseman so far in their careers. I know he is older, but progression isn't linear. In fact, I would say Ebklad has not improved since his rookie year. His skating is not good enough to be a number 1/elite defenseman. It is a concern for a few on the Panthers board.

Jones, Reilly, Lindholm, Risto are Ekblad's contemporaries, and their contacts are around $2m less per year! You could make an argument he has been better, but not $2m per year better! $6.5m per year would have been my max offer. It seems the Panthers didn't even bother to negotiate, and just gave him exactly what he asked for straight away.

 

[I am not exposed]

im sure this was answered, but couldn't find it. How many UFA years does this contract include?

whether it is right or wrong, NHL contracts are so skewed by the value of UFA years. Look at the signings, almost every RFA signing gets praised by HF, and UFA deals get hammered.

4 UFA years as I recall.

 

[I am not exposed]

He is $2 mil "better" than Jones, but not the other two

I would argue he isn't $2m better than Jones.

 

[MintyFresh88]

Yeah, lets look at this around game 50.

Or when the contract actually takes effect, maybe?

 

[Don Corleone]

It is like a high risk-medium reward contract

Exactly. Even if Ekblad becomes a true number 1 D the contract barely saves the Panthers anything. High risk but little reward is not the way to go especially for a guy still on his rookie contract. Not impressed in the way Florida handled the contract extensions for some of their players.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Draisaitl is looking like the best player in the draft all of a sudden

 

[57special]

Ekblad sure looked good on the WCH U23 team.