AAA 2014 Quarterfinals: Regina Pats vs. Edinburgh Capitals

[seventieslord]

Regina Capitals

coach: Brian Sutter

Morris Lukowich (A) - Alexei Zhamnov - Alex Golikov
Don Smith - Alexander Kozhevnikov - Billy Harris
Dave Hunter - Tomas Plekanec - Ric Seiling
Curt Fraser - Kelly Kisio (C) - Martin Lapointe

Alex Smith (A) - Keith Brown
Harold Snepsts - Jim McKenny
Sheldon Souray - Rick Smith

Viktor Konovalenko
Marc-Andre Fleury

spares:
Lucien DeBlois (F)
James Stewart (D)
Fred Whitcroft (F)
Murray Henderson (D)

PP1 - D.Smith - Kozhevnikov - Golikov - Souray - McKenny
PP2 - Lukowich - Kisio - Plekanec - Zhamnov - A.Smith
PK1 - Plekanec - Seiling - A.Smith - Snepsts
PK2 - Harris - Hunter - R.Smith - Brown
PK3 - Kisio - Zhamnov - Souray - Snepsts

VS

Edinburgh Capitals

Alain Vigneault, Coach

John Sorrell - Pierre Larouche - Scott Young
Andrew Brunette - Olli Jokinen (C) - Mikael Renberg
Dave Reid - Peter Zezel - Anders Kallur
Fredrik Modin - Robert Reichel - Mark Hunter
Eric Daze, Johan Franzen

Marcus Ragnarsson (A) - Derek Morris
Bob Rouse (A) - Tobias Enström
Kyle McLaren - Risto Siltanen
Philippe Boucher

Felix Potvin
Jon Casey

PP1. John Sorrell - Pierre Larouche - Scott Young Derek Morris - Risto Siltanen
PP2. Andrew Brunette - Olli Jokinen - Mikael Renberg Marcus Ragnarsson - Tobias Enström

PK1. Peter Zezel - Anders Kallur Bob Rouse - Marcus Ragnarsson
PK2. Dave Reid - Scott Young Kyle McLaren - Derek Morris
​

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[Hobnobs]

Apparently I had forgotten to update my roster post.

Edinburgh Capitals

Alain Vigneault, Coach

John Sorrell - Pierre Larouche - Scott Young
Andrew Brunette - Olli Jokinen (C) - Mikael Renberg
Dave Reid - Peter Zezel - Anders Kallur
Fredrik Modin - Robert Reichel - Mark Hunter
Eric Daze, Johan Franzen

Marcus Ragnarsson (A) - Derek Morris
Bob Rouse (A) - Tobias Enström
Kyle McLaren - Risto Siltanen
Philippe Boucher

Felix Potvin
Jon Casey

PP1. John Sorrell - Pierre Larouche - Scott Young Derek Morris - Risto Siltanen
PP2. Andrew Brunette - Olli Jokinen - Mikael Renberg Marcus Ragnarsson - Tobias Enström

PK1. Peter Zezel - Anders Kallur Bob Rouse - Marcus Ragnarsson
PK2. Dave Reid - Scott Young Kyle McLaren - Derek Morris
​

 

[seventieslord]

Ug, sorry, I've been a terrible opponent. Really busy time of year here. The next two days aren't looking any better. But I'll throw something together, somehow.

 

[seventieslord]

- I like your team better with the little tweaks you made here and there following the one and a half reviews you received from Rob and I.

- This is probably my least dominant defense of the MLDs and AAAs of 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, in terms of how it stacks up to the rest of the league. Whereas I always make it top priority and come out with a corps that I believe to be the best in the league, in this case, I'm just in the mix for third. All-star voting confirms this, with Rob and Dave both owning half the 1st and 2nd teams, respectively. Alex Smith can play with anyone here, and it's competent at worst (excellent at best) throughout, but this is not a star defense. i made it clear throughout the draft as others sniped the guys I wanted left and right.

- Anyway, the point I was leading towards is, though I'm not as thrilled at my defense as I usually am, I would still put it up against Edinburgh's, man for man, and not be worried. Edinburgh lacks a solid two-way #1 like Smith, and although Siltanen is close to Souray as an offensive/PP guy, Morris can't compare to McKenny in any respect except defensively, and even there they aren't that far apart, realistically.

- You do have a slight coaching advantage, but I have a good goaltending advantage to cancel that out.

- Your forwards are pretty well-built. You have two offensive weak links but one of them (Renberg) is useful as a puck winner. that second line is actually admittedly excellent, but if you go man-to-man versus Regina, you've got slightly lesser versions of everything there... glue guy, goal scoring center with size, and balanced consistent producer.

- if you're not splitting hairs, you can pretty much say Golikov/Sorrell/Larouche/Zhamnov cancel out, leaving Lukowich up against Young. Young actually has a better offensive record than Lukowich overall (though I think he had more help), but he's just not the overall performer Lukowich is, right? Not as good defensively, definitely not as determined, competitive, physical, etc.

- You know what could have honestly won this series for Edinburgh? Some real skilled defensive specialists. Then you could play the angle that Vigneault would ride his offensive horses in the offensive zone (and you have those), and rely on a few defensive studs to protect leads. But Zezel is a middling defensive AAA player, and Reid and Kallur are pretty good, but not the cream of the crop here either. Your 4th line is almost a non-factor in this regard. If you could have gotten yourself a Plekanec/Dahlstrom/Schock and a Dave Hunter/Hiller/Callahan, then it would be a different story here. But then, you might not even be up against Regina in round 1!

- our penalty killing defensemen match up pretty well statistically, just based on usage and team results, if you add up and average the modern guys in each of our top 2 units. Then I have Smith, who's a wildcard (as no stats exist) but was a solid player, and I am pretty sure Snepsts is better than those stats. Regina's PK forwards are better (28% usage, 11% better than league average performance compared to 26% adn 10% better) - though, admittedly, that's not really that huge.

- PPs are fairly close. I may have slightly more potent forwards, but the big key is I have McKenny and you have Morris on the top unit. We each have a less-than-ideal-but competent guy manning the 2nd unit (Brown, Ragnarsson).

I like Regina here, obviously, but ya done good, kid. I really can't pick apart your lineup in any profound way, other than to say I have no idea what you are sending your 4th line out there to do.

 

[Hobnobs]

I did a poor job on my defense this year and didnt get the right players there.

I do think our forwards stack up pretty well. Young vs Lukowich? Hm. Offensively young is prolly slightly better as you said. Both had good help in their best seasons Luko playing with Hawerchuk for example and Young with Turgeon. I see the both as a wash. They both saw the same kind of recognition. Both were fierce competitors and glue guys. Young did it for longer tho.

4th line will score goals with a bit of protection from Hunter.

 

[seventieslord]

Hunter is not really a protector, though... he's not line the other hunters, from what I can gather.

 

[Hobnobs]

Hunter is not really a protector, though... he's not line the other hunters, from what I can gather.

He dropped em decently often during his career but I meant his the physical aspect of the line. Making room for Reichel. Hes decent on offense too so he wont drag the others down.

 

[seventieslord]

He dropped em decently often during his career but I meant his the physical aspect of the line. Making room for Reichel. Hes decent on offense too so he wont drag the others down.

He could fight, this much is true. He had over 100 NHL fights.

But yeah, I'm not sure of either of those other things, to be honest.

Physically, he was inconsistent. it was the first thing I saw about him when researching him a few years ago. It was surprising because, hey, he's a Hunter. and had high PIMs. But he was apparently not the physical wrecking ball the others were. I like getting physical wrecking balls for 4th lines too, so I appreciate what you were going for, but I'd prefer a guy who was always on.

Offensively, it's really weird. He was a very mediocre offensive player with 127 ESP in 410 games aside from his STL years (0.31/game). Looking at a guy like Dave Hunter, he had 298 in 746 games (0.40/game and over double the sample). But in STL, he played with Federko and cashed in big time, bringing his career offensive totals and averages ahead of Dave. But was he actually a better scorer than Dave - who is a very mediocre scorer himself? You can't pretend STL didn't happen, but at the same time you have to think it's the exception and not the rule. There are others who we tend to view the same way - Pat Boutette (Sittler), Kevin Stevens (Lemieux), Gerard Gallant (Yzerman), Dutch Reibel (Lindsay/Howe) - because a good enough sample exists to demonstrate the linemate effect.

Defensively, he has no resume to speak of and was on the ice for 15 PPGA in his whole career - Dave had nine seasons with at least that many.

Discipline-wise, he took 1.68 PIM per game that were not from fighting - even though he was inconsistent physically. Dave took just 1.15, despite being described as mean, extremely physical and even dirty (sneaky maybe?)

This wasn't meant to turn into a massive comparison of Dave and Mark, but I guess it did. It does kinda irk me to see Mark in the same draft as Dave because his skill set is just so lacking compared to Dave's.

I made it sound like he sucked offensively, defensively and physically and was only good at fighting. that couldn't be the case. Goons who could only hit and fight averaged 6-10 minutes a game in the 1980s. More useful goons like Nilan and Semenko averaged 10-11. Despite not making massive contributions offensively or defensively, Mark averaged 12 minutes outside of his STL years so he was a lower-line role player, but not a "mostly useless" guy, either. So, perhaps his inconsistent physical game was still very good!

 

[Hobnobs]

He could fight, this much is true. He had over 100 NHL fights.

But yeah, I'm not sure of either of those other things, to be honest.

Physically, he was inconsistent. it was the first thing I saw about him when researching him a few years ago. It was surprising because, hey, he's a Hunter. and had high PIMs. But he was apparently not the physical wrecking ball the others were. I like getting physical wrecking balls for 4th lines too, so I appreciate what you were going for, but I'd prefer a guy who was always on.

Offensively, it's really weird. He was a very mediocre offensive player with 127 ESP in 410 games aside from his STL years (0.31/game). Looking at a guy like Dave Hunter, he had 298 in 746 games (0.40/game and over double the sample). But in STL, he played with Federko and cashed in big time, bringing his career offensive totals and averages ahead of Dave. But was he actually a better scorer than Dave - who is a very mediocre scorer himself? You can't pretend STL didn't happen, but at the same time you have to think it's the exception and not the rule. There are others who we tend to view the same way - Pat Boutette (Sittler), Kevin Stevens (Lemieux), Gerard Gallant (Yzerman), Dutch Reibel (Lindsay/Howe) - because a good enough sample exists to demonstrate the linemate effect.

Defensively, he has no resume to speak of and was on the ice for 15 PPGA in his whole career - Dave had nine seasons with at least that many.

Discipline-wise, he took 1.68 PIM per game that were not from fighting - even though he was inconsistent physically. Dave took just 1.15, despite being described as mean, extremely physical and even dirty (sneaky maybe?)

This wasn't meant to turn into a massive comparison of Dave and Mark, but I guess it did. It does kinda irk me to see Mark in the same draft as Dave because his skill set is just so lacking compared to Dave's.

I made it sound like he sucked offensively, defensively and physically and was only good at fighting. that couldn't be the case. Goons who could only hit and fight averaged 6-10 minutes a game in the 1980s. More useful goons like Nilan and Semenko averaged 10-11. Despite not making massive contributions offensively or defensively, Mark averaged 12 minutes outside of his STL years so he was a lower-line role player, but not a "mostly useless" guy, either. So, perhaps his inconsistent physical game was still very good!

I think Marks physical inconsistency has more to do with all the injuries he had. Hes a shooter/banger who should fit well on a fourth line.

Dave sits on your third line so it doesnt really matter how much better he was

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Regina Wins in 4 Games

3 Stars
1. Konovalenko
2. Zhamnov
3. Alex Smith