AAA 2013 F. McLaughlin divisional semi-final: Atlanta Knights vs. Rideau Hall Rebels
- Thread starter VanIslander
- Start date
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
) and cat goalie versus the league MVP and sugar in net.
tony d
Registered User
Looking forward to a good series Van Islander, here are my special teams:
PP1: George Richardson, Alexei Zhamnov, Rick Kehoe, Robert Picard, Janne Ninimaa
PP 2: Alexander Bodunov, Tim Young, John Anderson, Sergei Starikov, Tom Kurvers
PK 1: Don Grosso, Stephane Yelle, Sergei Starikov, Bret Hedican
PK 2: Peter Zezel, Martin Lapointe, Robert Picard, Bob Plager
PP1: George Richardson, Alexei Zhamnov, Rick Kehoe, Robert Picard, Janne Ninimaa
PP 2: Alexander Bodunov, Tim Young, John Anderson, Sergei Starikov, Tom Kurvers
PK 1: Don Grosso, Stephane Yelle, Sergei Starikov, Bret Hedican
PK 2: Peter Zezel, Martin Lapointe, Robert Picard, Bob Plager
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
This series' special teams is a wash tony d, imo:
PP1: Martin Rucinsky, Billy Barlow, Serge Bernier, Sergei Babinov, Leo Reise Sr.
PP2: Ryan Malone, Cliff Ronning, Eduard Novak, Barney Holden, Hal Laycoe
PK1: Kevin Miller, Dave Hunter, Sergei Babinov, Leo Fogolin, Jr.
PK2: Greg Malone, Randy Cunneyworth, Curtis Leschshyn, Barney Holden
PP1: Martin Rucinsky, Billy Barlow, Serge Bernier, Sergei Babinov, Leo Reise Sr.
PP2: Ryan Malone, Cliff Ronning, Eduard Novak, Barney Holden, Hal Laycoe
PK1: Kevin Miller, Dave Hunter, Sergei Babinov, Leo Fogolin, Jr.
PK2: Greg Malone, Randy Cunneyworth, Curtis Leschshyn, Barney Holden
tony d
Registered User
Let's get some debate going:
1st Line:
My 1st line is more of a traditional scoring 1st line with natural goal scorers Richardson and Kehoe paired with the playmaker, Zhamnov. While my opponent has gone for the classic grinder (Malone), goal scorer (Barlow), play maker (Bernier) 1st line. I think that Bernier is probably the best offensive guy on either of our 1st lines but there's a little drop off after Bernier for offense on your 1st line. With my team you have multi-time 30 goal scorer Rick Kehoe plus a great playmaker in Zhamnov. I really think my 1st line is better as there are more offensive weapons on the Knights than on the Rebels.
2nd Line:
Our 2nd lines are close and more offensively oriented. I expect both 2nd lines to play run and gun hockey as all 6 guys are more offensively oriented. Bodunov and Novak are going to be the goal scorers. Ronning and Young are going to be the playmakers. Rucinsky's also going to be a playmaker for your team while Anderson gives my team the ability to score goals and get assists. I think both 2nd lines are going to be great offensively but would suffer when going against the tougher lines. As things stand though right now I like your 2nd line better as Ronning is one of the better 2nd line centres in this draft and should have went in the MLD (Me and Dave got him in the ATD in 2011), Rucinsky is pretty good as well, I don't know much about Novak. My 2nd line are no slouches as Bodunov is a good goal scorer and Young is a decent playmaker while Anderson is versatile but I do like your 2nd line a little more.
3rd Line:
My 3rd line is going to be heck to play against. You have the tough as nails Lapointe and Kelly all patrolling my 3rd line as well as a guy like Peter Zezel who is the classic do it all 3rd line centre. Your 3rd line is good as well except that you have Peltonen on your 3rd line and I see nothing 3rd line about him. Still you have Dave Hunter and Greg Malone, both guys are like Kelly and Zezel in all 4 guys are tough and with Malone and Zezel they're good offensively as well. The 3rd line battle would be a wash but Lapointe is more of a classic 3rd liner than Peltonen so that gives the 3rd line battle to me ever so slightly.
4th Line:
Our 4th lines are a wash as well as they're built in a similar fashion. The tough left winger (Grosso vs.Cunneyworth), the defensive centre (Yelle vs. Miller) and the goal scorer who can play agressive (Gionta vs. Ridpath). The battle here is thisclose because I can say Grosso is better than Cunneyworth but then Ridpath is a little better than Gionta (I thought of picking Ridpath in the MLD) and Yelle is similar to Miller. The 4th lines are to close to call here.
That's my thoughts on the forward lines, I'll be back later with my thoughts on the defensive pairings.
1st Line:
My 1st line is more of a traditional scoring 1st line with natural goal scorers Richardson and Kehoe paired with the playmaker, Zhamnov. While my opponent has gone for the classic grinder (Malone), goal scorer (Barlow), play maker (Bernier) 1st line. I think that Bernier is probably the best offensive guy on either of our 1st lines but there's a little drop off after Bernier for offense on your 1st line. With my team you have multi-time 30 goal scorer Rick Kehoe plus a great playmaker in Zhamnov. I really think my 1st line is better as there are more offensive weapons on the Knights than on the Rebels.
2nd Line:
Our 2nd lines are close and more offensively oriented. I expect both 2nd lines to play run and gun hockey as all 6 guys are more offensively oriented. Bodunov and Novak are going to be the goal scorers. Ronning and Young are going to be the playmakers. Rucinsky's also going to be a playmaker for your team while Anderson gives my team the ability to score goals and get assists. I think both 2nd lines are going to be great offensively but would suffer when going against the tougher lines. As things stand though right now I like your 2nd line better as Ronning is one of the better 2nd line centres in this draft and should have went in the MLD (Me and Dave got him in the ATD in 2011), Rucinsky is pretty good as well, I don't know much about Novak. My 2nd line are no slouches as Bodunov is a good goal scorer and Young is a decent playmaker while Anderson is versatile but I do like your 2nd line a little more.
3rd Line:
My 3rd line is going to be heck to play against. You have the tough as nails Lapointe and Kelly all patrolling my 3rd line as well as a guy like Peter Zezel who is the classic do it all 3rd line centre. Your 3rd line is good as well except that you have Peltonen on your 3rd line and I see nothing 3rd line about him. Still you have Dave Hunter and Greg Malone, both guys are like Kelly and Zezel in all 4 guys are tough and with Malone and Zezel they're good offensively as well. The 3rd line battle would be a wash but Lapointe is more of a classic 3rd liner than Peltonen so that gives the 3rd line battle to me ever so slightly.
4th Line:
Our 4th lines are a wash as well as they're built in a similar fashion. The tough left winger (Grosso vs.Cunneyworth), the defensive centre (Yelle vs. Miller) and the goal scorer who can play agressive (Gionta vs. Ridpath). The battle here is thisclose because I can say Grosso is better than Cunneyworth but then Ridpath is a little better than Gionta (I thought of picking Ridpath in the MLD) and Yelle is similar to Miller. The 4th lines are to close to call here.
That's my thoughts on the forward lines, I'll be back later with my thoughts on the defensive pairings.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
I wouldn't say your 4th lines are built in a similar fashion, at least not when you compare position to position. Grosso isn't tough and doesn't have the same checking pedigree that cunneyworth has, but he is definitely the more talented player. At center, Yelle is a pure defensive guy and Miller an all around player who doesn't specialize in anything. Ridpath and Gionta seem more similar in style. I guess in achievements they are pretty close, too. That's one comparison that is pretty close.
tony d
Registered User
Time to debate the defensive pairings:
1st Pairing:
The Rebels 1st defensive pairing of Babinov and Reise is probably the best #1 defensive pairing in the whole draft, you did quite well in getting both. Reise was judged the league MVP and I agree with that sentiment. That's a super pairing and you did well in drafting both. My 1st pairing is strong as well with the 2-way Starikov and the offensive Robert Picard. Obviously starikov and Picard are not Babinov and Reise but I still expect to hold their own in this series.
2nd Pairing:
The 2nd pairing features the 2 way play of both Laycoe and Holden for my opponents and the classic defensive and offensive pairing of Hedican and Ninimaa for the Knights. Like other areas of our lineups this battle should be close as well. Ninimaa will obviously be the best offensive defenseman among the 2 pairing in this series having 4 seasons of 40 or more points. Hedican was more defensively oriented but he should chip in offensively from time to time. I expect this battle to be close and really do think the 2nd defensive pairings matchup in this series are going to be close to call.
3rd pairing:
My 3rd pairing features Plager and Kurvers, it is not a classic shutdown pairing as Kurvers was more offensive oriented but Plager should do more than his fair share of playing good defensive hockey. For my opponents there's Curtis Leschyshyn and Lee Fogolin Jr. I'm glad to see Curtis Leschshyn get drafted here in the 3rd draft, the guy was such a good defenseman for so long that he deserves selection here. Foglin Jr. is also defensive oriented and should deliver a lot of hard hits. I expect this matchup to be very physical but as I have an offensive presence here that may give me a slight advantage.
I'll be back tomorrow to debate the goaltending and coaching matchups. Hopefully I'll get a rebuttal soon from my worthy opponent here.
1st Pairing:
The Rebels 1st defensive pairing of Babinov and Reise is probably the best #1 defensive pairing in the whole draft, you did quite well in getting both. Reise was judged the league MVP and I agree with that sentiment. That's a super pairing and you did well in drafting both. My 1st pairing is strong as well with the 2-way Starikov and the offensive Robert Picard. Obviously starikov and Picard are not Babinov and Reise but I still expect to hold their own in this series.
2nd Pairing:
The 2nd pairing features the 2 way play of both Laycoe and Holden for my opponents and the classic defensive and offensive pairing of Hedican and Ninimaa for the Knights. Like other areas of our lineups this battle should be close as well. Ninimaa will obviously be the best offensive defenseman among the 2 pairing in this series having 4 seasons of 40 or more points. Hedican was more defensively oriented but he should chip in offensively from time to time. I expect this battle to be close and really do think the 2nd defensive pairings matchup in this series are going to be close to call.
3rd pairing:
My 3rd pairing features Plager and Kurvers, it is not a classic shutdown pairing as Kurvers was more offensive oriented but Plager should do more than his fair share of playing good defensive hockey. For my opponents there's Curtis Leschyshyn and Lee Fogolin Jr. I'm glad to see Curtis Leschshyn get drafted here in the 3rd draft, the guy was such a good defenseman for so long that he deserves selection here. Foglin Jr. is also defensive oriented and should deliver a lot of hard hits. I expect this matchup to be very physical but as I have an offensive presence here that may give me a slight advantage.
I'll be back tomorrow to debate the goaltending and coaching matchups. Hopefully I'll get a rebuttal soon from my worthy opponent here.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
How the Atlanta Knights could easily win the series...
6'1 HHOFer Richardson won three collegiate championships, then the OHL, Allan Cup and challenged Ottawa for the Stanley Cup and so he with seven-time 60+ point NHLer Zhamnov and Kehoe who basically was a 30-goal scorer for a decade, in conjunction with blueliners like skilled Starikov (the Soviets 2nd pair stalwart in the eighties) and Picard, who had an awesome sophomore and decent enough third year to have back-to-back all-star game selections, together could do some serious damage. Moreover, Lapointe is a multi-cup winning legend at the Memorial Cup and international level who is a legitimate all-time great Bottom-6 forward who ought to rock and roll at this level of competition. And lets not overlook Potvin, who may have been the opposite of clutch in many a big game but who was one of the rising stars his first four seasons in T.O. before fading away into obscurity. The Knights are like lightning in a bottle: at their peak they could win this series in 5 or 6 games. It'll probably go seven games.
6'1 HHOFer Richardson won three collegiate championships, then the OHL, Allan Cup and challenged Ottawa for the Stanley Cup and so he with seven-time 60+ point NHLer Zhamnov and Kehoe who basically was a 30-goal scorer for a decade, in conjunction with blueliners like skilled Starikov (the Soviets 2nd pair stalwart in the eighties) and Picard, who had an awesome sophomore and decent enough third year to have back-to-back all-star game selections, together could do some serious damage. Moreover, Lapointe is a multi-cup winning legend at the Memorial Cup and international level who is a legitimate all-time great Bottom-6 forward who ought to rock and roll at this level of competition. And lets not overlook Potvin, who may have been the opposite of clutch in many a big game but who was one of the rising stars his first four seasons in T.O. before fading away into obscurity. The Knights are like lightning in a bottle: at their peak they could win this series in 5 or 6 games. It'll probably go seven games.
tony d
Registered User
Thanks vanislander for the complements on my team and I agree that I think my 1st line is explosive enough to win games by itself and my 1st pairing is good as well. That said I'd be interested to see how your team plans to battle vs. mine and how your team can win the series.
I'll be back later today to debate the goaltending, coaching and special teams for both teams.
I'll be back later today to debate the goaltending, coaching and special teams for both teams.
tony d
Registered User
Time to debate the goaltending, coaching and special teams in this series
Goaltending: Both #1's are among the best in the whole draft as was evidenced in the all star voting. Potvin appears to be the strongest given the fact that during his career he often gave strong performances especially during his time with Toronto and Los Angeles. Henry should perform quite well for the Rebels as well. The backup spot though should be an advantage for the Knights. Hal Winkler is a great backup goalie and should be able to spell Potvin should he falter, I don't know if the Rebels will be in the same shape should Henry go down with injury as Wakely is a weaker backup. Should be an interesting battle.
Coaching: Both coaches are similar in that they always got the best out of their teams. Hartley led the Colorado Avalanche to 4 straight West finals and also is the only coach to lead the Thrashers/Jets franchise to the playoffs. Tessier had the reputation for getting the most out of his teams. I think this should be a good coaching battle and both teams are made better by their coaches.
Special Teams: Nothing to say here other than that both teams have strong special teams that won't hurt our lineups.
Final Thoughts: This is an extremely evenly matched series with both teams having advantages and disadvantages over the other, VanIslander you where right this series could go the distance, I wish you both good luck and hope to see a rebuttal from you soon.
Goaltending: Both #1's are among the best in the whole draft as was evidenced in the all star voting. Potvin appears to be the strongest given the fact that during his career he often gave strong performances especially during his time with Toronto and Los Angeles. Henry should perform quite well for the Rebels as well. The backup spot though should be an advantage for the Knights. Hal Winkler is a great backup goalie and should be able to spell Potvin should he falter, I don't know if the Rebels will be in the same shape should Henry go down with injury as Wakely is a weaker backup. Should be an interesting battle.
Coaching: Both coaches are similar in that they always got the best out of their teams. Hartley led the Colorado Avalanche to 4 straight West finals and also is the only coach to lead the Thrashers/Jets franchise to the playoffs. Tessier had the reputation for getting the most out of his teams. I think this should be a good coaching battle and both teams are made better by their coaches.
Special Teams: Nothing to say here other than that both teams have strong special teams that won't hurt our lineups.
Final Thoughts: This is an extremely evenly matched series with both teams having advantages and disadvantages over the other, VanIslander you where right this series could go the distance, I wish you both good luck and hope to see a rebuttal from you soon.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Such reasonable analyses tony d! 
My Rebels might upset the higher-seeded Knights if... if the blueline advantage my team has is the difference. That's about it.
George Richardson, Rick Kehoe, Tim Young, Bob Kelly, Martin Lapointe, Don Grosso, Petr Klima, Sergei Starikov, Bret Hedican and Felix Potvin would have all made my squad in one capacity or another, and thus I tip my hat to your team
(an early eggnog and rum).
I also appreciate coach Hartley as his years in the NHL has always seen a high compete level by his guys. Getting millionaires to sweat, go into high-traffic areas and give it their all game in and game out is a real skill in the modern NHL.
My Rebels might upset the higher-seeded Knights if... if the blueline advantage my team has is the difference. That's about it.
George Richardson, Rick Kehoe, Tim Young, Bob Kelly, Martin Lapointe, Don Grosso, Petr Klima, Sergei Starikov, Bret Hedican and Felix Potvin would have all made my squad in one capacity or another, and thus I tip my hat to your team
(an early eggnog and rum). I also appreciate coach Hartley as his years in the NHL has always seen a high compete level by his guys. Getting millionaires to sweat, go into high-traffic areas and give it their all game in and game out is a real skill in the modern NHL.
tony d
Registered User
Such reasonable analyses tony d!
My Rebels might upset the higher-seeded Knights if... if the blueline advantage my team has is the difference. That's about it.
George Richardson, Rick Kehoe, Tim Young, Bob Kelly, Martin Lapointe, Don Grosso, Petr Klima, Sergei Starikov, Bret Hedican and Felix Potvin would have all made my squad in one capacity or another, and thus I tip my hat to your team
I also appreciate coach Hartley as his years in the NHL has always seen a high compete level by his guys. Getting millionaires to sweat, go into high-traffic areas and give it their all game in and game out is a real skill in the modern NHL.
Thanks and I do think your team has a nice advantage on defense. The Babinov Reise pairing is one of the better defensive pairings I've seen in all my yrs. of being involved with this.
I'd also argue that Serge Bernier should help your team as well. He's been on my radar for selection in these drafts for a long time.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
According to seventieslord he's nothing special by some sort of formula to discount WHA performances.
I've always thought of him as certainly a legitimate MLDer (Tardif, Cloutier respected as legit MLD top liners) and comparable with ATD extra skaters like Nilsson, Richer. At the AAA level, where he has never fallen before, he shines: top-5 in WHA career assists and points, WHA all-star and playoff MVP, champion. Scratch and sniff his accomplishments if one was judging the ATD or MLD level, but he was a touted 5th over NHL pick who went on to a great career in the more financially lucrative WHA after 164 NHL points over three years in the NHL to begin his pro career. He was well respected and accomplished. he was an all-time great at some level above Double-A Draft, given other picks.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Serge Bernier’s offensive value
I got the impression that I was being challenged/questioned on my assertion about Bernier so I thought I’d take some time to put a WHA comparison system (and what I’ve said about Bernier) to the test. In the past in this section, I have seen WHA conversion factors of anywhere from 0.60 to 0.75 suggested, and both were based on some degree of research and real-life results, not just gut feelings. That said, they also come pretty close to matching the gut feelings of most of us in this section, from what I can tell. However, that’s a fairly wide range, so maybe I can narrow it down.
I recall in 2010 I did a study where I compared the career PPG of players who played a certain number of games in both the WHA and NHL, and averaged out the decline in point totals that were typically observed. It was the first time I had seen such a thing done, and it yielded a result closer to that 0.60 mark; however, I can’t find the spreadsheet and I think I only publicly released the final results as opposed to “showing my work”. Also, IIRC, it was not that scientific as it was based on career totals; I think specifically targeting the seasons directly before/after a player’s WHA stint makes more sense even if it is more difficult.
I took a long list of players to determine the appropriate factor to use. To qualify, a player had to have at least two WHA seasons if they were primarily an NHL player, and at least two NHL seasons if they were primarily a WHA player. They had to be a player typically discussed in this section (arguably ATD/MLD/AAA/AA caliber) and had to be a forward, as forwards can be judged primarily on offensive numbers, and defensemen can’t (and their offensive totals are hugely dependent on whether they got PP time in a given season or not). Players whose positional integrity was uncertain were dropped to be safe (Mark Howe, for example). If a player went “NHL-WHA-NHL” then I used their last two in the NHL, first two in the WHA, last two in the WHA, first two in the NHL. If their career started or ended with the WHA, then there is only one point of comparison instead of two, so I used their first/last two in the respective leagues. If one of the “adjacent” seasons was less than a half season I added the next one in as well, to ensure I was getting a solid sample size. The smaller of the two samples (either WHA or NHL) had to be at least 125 games; if it wasn’t, I would take the next season to make it at least that large. If that was not possible, the player was thrown out (Tom Webster, Gordie Howe). I also left out Wayne Gretzky because he is an extreme outlier in just about any model and this one is no exception.
After collecting who I could off the top of my head, I found the rest of these players by scanning the top-50 all-time leaders for career WHA GP and Pts, then looking at the year by year all-star teams and top-20 in points. Then I looked at the “skater statistics” pages on WHA, checking the oldest and youngest blocks of players for guys who were working their way up to the NHL, or taking it easy after their prime was over. I hope I got everyone. If I didn’t, please let me know.
Name | NHL GP | NHL Pts | WHA GP | WHA Pts | NHL PPG | WHA PPG | Diff
Tardif | 272 | 225 | 303 | 409 | 0.83 | 1.35 | 0.61
Keon | 308 | 221 | 301 | 291 | 0.72 | 0.97 | 0.74
Walton | 292 | 247 | 211 | 281 | 0.85 | 1.33 | 0.64
Dudley | 303 | 173 | 270 | 277 | 0.57 | 1.03 | 0.56
Hull | 183 | 206 | 253 | 373 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 0.76
Bernier | 223 | 145 | 273 | 368 | 0.65 | 1.35 | 0.48
Lacroix | 158 | 70 | 312 | 436 | 0.44 | 1.40 | 0.32
Ftorek | 145 | 131 | 293 | 406 | 0.90 | 1.39 | 0.65
Houle | 290 | 186 | 214 | 257 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 0.53
Stoughton | 272 | 227 | 219 | 179 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.02
Henderson | 212 | 159 | 279 | 235 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.89
Cloutier | 168 | 217 | 150 | 258 | 1.29 | 1.72 | 0.75
K.Nilsson | 160 | 222 | 158 | 214 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.02
Nilsson | 160 | 163 | 144 | 250 | 1.02 | 1.74 | 0.59
Hedberg | 160 | 149 | 145 | 253 | 0.93 | 1.74 | 0.53
Flett | 199 | 95 | 195 | 187 | 0.48 | 0.96 | 0.50
Rogers | 160 | 210 | 160 | 143 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 1.47
McKenzie | 142 | 146 | 179 | 190 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 0.97
Mahovlich | 149 | 173 | 148 | 171 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.00
Lukowich | 158 | 141 | 160 | 174 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.82
MacDonald | 143 | 151 | 160 | 139 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 1.22
Preston | 202 | 125 | 153 | 110 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.86
Nedomansky | 143 | 101 | 174 | 172 | 0.71 | 0.99 | 0.71
Ruskowski | 146 | 129 | 153 | 158 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.86
Bordeleau | 144 | 84 | 153 | 176 | 0.58 | 1.15 | 0.51
Williams | 198 | 131 | 139 | 89 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 1.03
Connelly | 147 | 86 | 156 | 165 | 0.59 | 1.06 | 0.55
Lawson | 156 | 39 | 156 | 194 | 0.25 | 1.24 | 0.20
MacMillan | 182 | 113 | 153 | 88 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 1.08
Ullman | 158 | 104 | 144 | 130 | 0.66 | 0.90 | 0.73
Backstrom | 155 | 110 | 148 | 122 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.86
Napier | 130 | 80 | 159 | 161 | 0.62 | 1.01 | 0.61
Tonelli | 150 | 100 | 145 | 119 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.81
MacGregor | 193 | 110 | 135 | 75 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 1.03
Joyal | 139 | 62 | 194 | 103 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.84
McDonald | 171 | 107 | 147 | 70 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1.31
Hampson | 156 | 59 | 154 | 117 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.50
Boudrias | 149 | 106 | 140 | 70 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.42
Gendron | 132 | 55 | 127 | 69 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.77
Fonteyne | 138 | 32 | 149 | 61 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.57
Semenko | 125 | 32 | 142 | 36 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 1.01
Total | 7371 | 5422 | 7548 | 7776 | 0.74 | 1.03 | 0.71
It’s not particularly hard to put together something even more “scientific” than this; however, this is a great improvement on what I did before and it appears intuitively sound, fitting in with what the consensus tends to be about WHA offensive totals.
A couple of notes:
- I probably should have included all players, not just the ones who were at least AA draft caliber. I’m not interested in going back and finding them all, but to be honest I can’t quite justify why their results should not be relevant in a study of how much easier it is to score in the WHA than the NHL. These players would tend to drag that 0.71 figure down, as they are guys who were not special NHL players, hence why we’ve never selected them here.
- Another factor that would technically drag this 0.71 down is that so many of these players played at ages where we know there were likely not in their offensive primes – either quite old or quite young. And then they’re being compared to NHL seasons that were closer to, or in, their prime. If an age-adjusted analysis was possible it would surely drag the final answer down just a bit.
- If you were to “weigh” each player’s factor based on the number of games played and points (i.e. which samples are more significant) the final factor that the table would determine would be 0.76. However, these were arbitrarily selected samples to begin with so I didn’t see the point in adding that factor into it. It could be argued that even if this is valid, the two points above offset that to about the same degree.
- My conclusion as of now (and I welcome comments and criticisms) is that WHA scoring achievements are worth about 71% what NHL scoring achievements in the 1970-1982 range are.
With that all done, how does this apply to Bernier?
What we tend to use for NHL players is a Vs2, VsX, or “percentage” method, whatever you want to call it, there are a couple systems in use but they have the same principle to them. Most of us tend to speak in terms of “best 6 scores” and though I try not to adhere to that too strictly in cases of outstanding (or poor) consistency/longevity, it has proven to be a solid barometer of offensive peak.
Bernier’s best NHL scores by my methodology are: 68, 60, 42. If I was to calculate his WHA percentage scores I would do the following:
1974: 86/100 = 86 (both 1st and 2nd are outliers this year)
1975: 122/122 = 100 (used Bernier as the benchmark as 1st and 2nd are outliers from him)
1976: 102/123 = 83
1977: 96/131 = 73
1978: 78/129 = 60
1979: 82/116 = 71
Multiplied by 0.71 to account for the relative ease in posting these figures, Bernier’s 6 WHA percentage scores would be 61, 71, 59, 52, 43, and 50.
So his best six percentage scores with his NHL days also counted, would be 71, 68, 61, 60, 59, 52, for a total of 371. That’s pretty strong, and no one available comes close to this (I see 350 or so as the gold standard heading into the AA) so it’s safe to say that Bernier absolutely belongs at least in the AAA. But where?
Ignoring for now the facts that there are mitigating factors leading to some of the percentage scores of these wingers, both good and bad (some of them achieved these scores despite injuries cutting some of their best seasons a bit short, some of them benefitted from a clearly superior center), here are the best north American AAA scoring line wingers based on the same metric. Everyone listed here is currently on a AAA scoring line, except for Havlat and McDonald, the only two wingers I can see on the bottom half of anyone’s roster who have the offensive credentials to hang with these guys.
Pre-expansion players have a 15% boost added to their score. This has been discussed many times and not everyone agrees with it; however, I still believe it intuitively makes sense as it tends to reflect at any given time in the MLD or AAA what the best available post-expansion players seem to outpace the best available pre-expansion players by. (no one disagrees that VsX will favour the modern player from a bigger league, particularly when we’re at this caliber of player).
Note that Boldirev is mostly a center and should be discounted to some degree based on personal preference. Note that starting around Christmas, Kessel will be making his “best 6” score go up by one every time he scores another point, as his 2014 season will eclipse his 2008 season as his sixth best. Also, note that Tobin’s score of 373 really means “at least 373” because he played defense 20% of the time (though I am not sure how much defense he played in the seasons identified as his six best, it could be none and in all likelihood it is lower than his career average of 20%) Fourthly, note that Liscombe is adjusted for WW2 so as not to give him too much, or too little credit for those seasons. And lastly, I should mention that I see three other wingers in the AAA who, despite being next to impossible to compare straight up, certainly belong somewhere on this list – Golikov, Richardson and Routh.
Also please do note that this is not meant to be a definitive ranking of AAA wingers, for one thing it only takes offensive numbers into account, doesn’t consider playoffs, doesn’t consider who was helped by superior linemates versus being a catalyst themselves, and it’s only based on six seasons. Players who are in the same range for best 6 seasons should be given a closer look, and the most important thing to look at is probably what else happened outside those six seasons. For a guy like Earl Robinson, the answer is absolutely nothing, for a guy like Bernier, it’s decent, and for Kehoe and Boldirev it’s quite a lot. On the other side of the coin, it weighs a player’s best couple of seasons only as highly as their fifth and sixth best, and from what I can tell, most of us do place a higher value on how good a player was at his very best (see: the assertion of Kessel as possibly the top winger here, the fact that Neal and Kunitz were selected at all, the emphasis on one season of a few all-star votes for a defenseman)
Anyway, here’s the list:
Sorrell | 435
Murray | 418
Grant | 415
Robinson | 403
McDonald | 392
Liscombe | 391
Kaleta | 389
Brunette | 382
Kessel | 381
Poile | 377
Havlat | 374
Kehoe | 374
Tobin | 373
Bernier | 371
Courtnall | 370
Boldirev | 370
Sanderson | 370
R.Sheppard | 367
Depending on some other factors, it’s relatively safe to say Bernier is the 10th-21st best scoring winger in the AAA. Considering there are 14 teams and therefore 28 scoring line wingers, even after accounting for some complementary players, Bernier is a good fit as an AAA 1st line winger – but also not by any means a special one. Somewhere between average and bargain basement. It certainly would not be a misappropriation of votes to put him on the 3rd all-star team for this draft… 2nd is pushing it, and 1st team I don’t see as a particularly defendable when you look at the other names there. I think you’ve got him more or less where he belongs.
I got the impression that I was being challenged/questioned on my assertion about Bernier so I thought I’d take some time to put a WHA comparison system (and what I’ve said about Bernier) to the test. In the past in this section, I have seen WHA conversion factors of anywhere from 0.60 to 0.75 suggested, and both were based on some degree of research and real-life results, not just gut feelings. That said, they also come pretty close to matching the gut feelings of most of us in this section, from what I can tell. However, that’s a fairly wide range, so maybe I can narrow it down.
I recall in 2010 I did a study where I compared the career PPG of players who played a certain number of games in both the WHA and NHL, and averaged out the decline in point totals that were typically observed. It was the first time I had seen such a thing done, and it yielded a result closer to that 0.60 mark; however, I can’t find the spreadsheet and I think I only publicly released the final results as opposed to “showing my work”. Also, IIRC, it was not that scientific as it was based on career totals; I think specifically targeting the seasons directly before/after a player’s WHA stint makes more sense even if it is more difficult.
I took a long list of players to determine the appropriate factor to use. To qualify, a player had to have at least two WHA seasons if they were primarily an NHL player, and at least two NHL seasons if they were primarily a WHA player. They had to be a player typically discussed in this section (arguably ATD/MLD/AAA/AA caliber) and had to be a forward, as forwards can be judged primarily on offensive numbers, and defensemen can’t (and their offensive totals are hugely dependent on whether they got PP time in a given season or not). Players whose positional integrity was uncertain were dropped to be safe (Mark Howe, for example). If a player went “NHL-WHA-NHL” then I used their last two in the NHL, first two in the WHA, last two in the WHA, first two in the NHL. If their career started or ended with the WHA, then there is only one point of comparison instead of two, so I used their first/last two in the respective leagues. If one of the “adjacent” seasons was less than a half season I added the next one in as well, to ensure I was getting a solid sample size. The smaller of the two samples (either WHA or NHL) had to be at least 125 games; if it wasn’t, I would take the next season to make it at least that large. If that was not possible, the player was thrown out (Tom Webster, Gordie Howe). I also left out Wayne Gretzky because he is an extreme outlier in just about any model and this one is no exception.
After collecting who I could off the top of my head, I found the rest of these players by scanning the top-50 all-time leaders for career WHA GP and Pts, then looking at the year by year all-star teams and top-20 in points. Then I looked at the “skater statistics” pages on WHA, checking the oldest and youngest blocks of players for guys who were working their way up to the NHL, or taking it easy after their prime was over. I hope I got everyone. If I didn’t, please let me know.
Tardif | 272 | 225 | 303 | 409 | 0.83 | 1.35 | 0.61
Keon | 308 | 221 | 301 | 291 | 0.72 | 0.97 | 0.74
Walton | 292 | 247 | 211 | 281 | 0.85 | 1.33 | 0.64
Dudley | 303 | 173 | 270 | 277 | 0.57 | 1.03 | 0.56
Hull | 183 | 206 | 253 | 373 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 0.76
Bernier | 223 | 145 | 273 | 368 | 0.65 | 1.35 | 0.48
Lacroix | 158 | 70 | 312 | 436 | 0.44 | 1.40 | 0.32
Ftorek | 145 | 131 | 293 | 406 | 0.90 | 1.39 | 0.65
Houle | 290 | 186 | 214 | 257 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 0.53
Stoughton | 272 | 227 | 219 | 179 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.02
Henderson | 212 | 159 | 279 | 235 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.89
Cloutier | 168 | 217 | 150 | 258 | 1.29 | 1.72 | 0.75
K.Nilsson | 160 | 222 | 158 | 214 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.02
Nilsson | 160 | 163 | 144 | 250 | 1.02 | 1.74 | 0.59
Hedberg | 160 | 149 | 145 | 253 | 0.93 | 1.74 | 0.53
Flett | 199 | 95 | 195 | 187 | 0.48 | 0.96 | 0.50
Rogers | 160 | 210 | 160 | 143 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 1.47
McKenzie | 142 | 146 | 179 | 190 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 0.97
Mahovlich | 149 | 173 | 148 | 171 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.00
Lukowich | 158 | 141 | 160 | 174 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.82
MacDonald | 143 | 151 | 160 | 139 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 1.22
Preston | 202 | 125 | 153 | 110 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.86
Nedomansky | 143 | 101 | 174 | 172 | 0.71 | 0.99 | 0.71
Ruskowski | 146 | 129 | 153 | 158 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.86
Bordeleau | 144 | 84 | 153 | 176 | 0.58 | 1.15 | 0.51
Williams | 198 | 131 | 139 | 89 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 1.03
Connelly | 147 | 86 | 156 | 165 | 0.59 | 1.06 | 0.55
Lawson | 156 | 39 | 156 | 194 | 0.25 | 1.24 | 0.20
MacMillan | 182 | 113 | 153 | 88 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 1.08
Ullman | 158 | 104 | 144 | 130 | 0.66 | 0.90 | 0.73
Backstrom | 155 | 110 | 148 | 122 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.86
Napier | 130 | 80 | 159 | 161 | 0.62 | 1.01 | 0.61
Tonelli | 150 | 100 | 145 | 119 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.81
MacGregor | 193 | 110 | 135 | 75 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 1.03
Joyal | 139 | 62 | 194 | 103 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.84
McDonald | 171 | 107 | 147 | 70 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1.31
Hampson | 156 | 59 | 154 | 117 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.50
Boudrias | 149 | 106 | 140 | 70 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.42
Gendron | 132 | 55 | 127 | 69 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.77
Fonteyne | 138 | 32 | 149 | 61 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.57
Semenko | 125 | 32 | 142 | 36 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 1.01
Total | 7371 | 5422 | 7548 | 7776 | 0.74 | 1.03 | 0.71
It’s not particularly hard to put together something even more “scientific” than this; however, this is a great improvement on what I did before and it appears intuitively sound, fitting in with what the consensus tends to be about WHA offensive totals.
A couple of notes:
- I probably should have included all players, not just the ones who were at least AA draft caliber. I’m not interested in going back and finding them all, but to be honest I can’t quite justify why their results should not be relevant in a study of how much easier it is to score in the WHA than the NHL. These players would tend to drag that 0.71 figure down, as they are guys who were not special NHL players, hence why we’ve never selected them here.
- Another factor that would technically drag this 0.71 down is that so many of these players played at ages where we know there were likely not in their offensive primes – either quite old or quite young. And then they’re being compared to NHL seasons that were closer to, or in, their prime. If an age-adjusted analysis was possible it would surely drag the final answer down just a bit.
- If you were to “weigh” each player’s factor based on the number of games played and points (i.e. which samples are more significant) the final factor that the table would determine would be 0.76. However, these were arbitrarily selected samples to begin with so I didn’t see the point in adding that factor into it. It could be argued that even if this is valid, the two points above offset that to about the same degree.
- My conclusion as of now (and I welcome comments and criticisms) is that WHA scoring achievements are worth about 71% what NHL scoring achievements in the 1970-1982 range are.
With that all done, how does this apply to Bernier?
What we tend to use for NHL players is a Vs2, VsX, or “percentage” method, whatever you want to call it, there are a couple systems in use but they have the same principle to them. Most of us tend to speak in terms of “best 6 scores” and though I try not to adhere to that too strictly in cases of outstanding (or poor) consistency/longevity, it has proven to be a solid barometer of offensive peak.
Bernier’s best NHL scores by my methodology are: 68, 60, 42. If I was to calculate his WHA percentage scores I would do the following:
1974: 86/100 = 86 (both 1st and 2nd are outliers this year)
1975: 122/122 = 100 (used Bernier as the benchmark as 1st and 2nd are outliers from him)
1976: 102/123 = 83
1977: 96/131 = 73
1978: 78/129 = 60
1979: 82/116 = 71
Multiplied by 0.71 to account for the relative ease in posting these figures, Bernier’s 6 WHA percentage scores would be 61, 71, 59, 52, 43, and 50.
So his best six percentage scores with his NHL days also counted, would be 71, 68, 61, 60, 59, 52, for a total of 371. That’s pretty strong, and no one available comes close to this (I see 350 or so as the gold standard heading into the AA) so it’s safe to say that Bernier absolutely belongs at least in the AAA. But where?
Ignoring for now the facts that there are mitigating factors leading to some of the percentage scores of these wingers, both good and bad (some of them achieved these scores despite injuries cutting some of their best seasons a bit short, some of them benefitted from a clearly superior center), here are the best north American AAA scoring line wingers based on the same metric. Everyone listed here is currently on a AAA scoring line, except for Havlat and McDonald, the only two wingers I can see on the bottom half of anyone’s roster who have the offensive credentials to hang with these guys.
Pre-expansion players have a 15% boost added to their score. This has been discussed many times and not everyone agrees with it; however, I still believe it intuitively makes sense as it tends to reflect at any given time in the MLD or AAA what the best available post-expansion players seem to outpace the best available pre-expansion players by. (no one disagrees that VsX will favour the modern player from a bigger league, particularly when we’re at this caliber of player).
Note that Boldirev is mostly a center and should be discounted to some degree based on personal preference. Note that starting around Christmas, Kessel will be making his “best 6” score go up by one every time he scores another point, as his 2014 season will eclipse his 2008 season as his sixth best. Also, note that Tobin’s score of 373 really means “at least 373” because he played defense 20% of the time (though I am not sure how much defense he played in the seasons identified as his six best, it could be none and in all likelihood it is lower than his career average of 20%) Fourthly, note that Liscombe is adjusted for WW2 so as not to give him too much, or too little credit for those seasons. And lastly, I should mention that I see three other wingers in the AAA who, despite being next to impossible to compare straight up, certainly belong somewhere on this list – Golikov, Richardson and Routh.
Also please do note that this is not meant to be a definitive ranking of AAA wingers, for one thing it only takes offensive numbers into account, doesn’t consider playoffs, doesn’t consider who was helped by superior linemates versus being a catalyst themselves, and it’s only based on six seasons. Players who are in the same range for best 6 seasons should be given a closer look, and the most important thing to look at is probably what else happened outside those six seasons. For a guy like Earl Robinson, the answer is absolutely nothing, for a guy like Bernier, it’s decent, and for Kehoe and Boldirev it’s quite a lot. On the other side of the coin, it weighs a player’s best couple of seasons only as highly as their fifth and sixth best, and from what I can tell, most of us do place a higher value on how good a player was at his very best (see: the assertion of Kessel as possibly the top winger here, the fact that Neal and Kunitz were selected at all, the emphasis on one season of a few all-star votes for a defenseman)
Anyway, here’s the list:
Murray | 418
Grant | 415
Robinson | 403
McDonald | 392
Liscombe | 391
Kaleta | 389
Brunette | 382
Kessel | 381
Poile | 377
Havlat | 374
Kehoe | 374
Tobin | 373
Bernier | 371
Courtnall | 370
Boldirev | 370
Sanderson | 370
R.Sheppard | 367
Depending on some other factors, it’s relatively safe to say Bernier is the 10th-21st best scoring winger in the AAA. Considering there are 14 teams and therefore 28 scoring line wingers, even after accounting for some complementary players, Bernier is a good fit as an AAA 1st line winger – but also not by any means a special one. Somewhere between average and bargain basement. It certainly would not be a misappropriation of votes to put him on the 3rd all-star team for this draft… 2nd is pushing it, and 1st team I don’t see as a particularly defendable when you look at the other names there. I think you’ve got him more or less where he belongs.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Bernier suffers from simply having a long career by that analysis if it is using NHL stats from BEFORE and AFTER the WHA years (unlike most), given he had a decent couple of NHL years, then went to be a career leader in the WHA and then in his 13th year of pro hockey he returned to two very unimpressive partial seasons in the NHL at the tailend of his career.
Kehoe is listed higher than Bernier by that analysis, suggesting Rideau Hall has the lesser right winger.
Anyways, there's no reason to expect an upset in this series unless the Rebels defense (bottom-6 and blueline) can pretty much shut down the higher seed in four of seven games.
Kehoe is listed higher than Bernier by that analysis, suggesting Rideau Hall has the lesser right winger.
Anyways, there's no reason to expect an upset in this series unless the Rebels defense (bottom-6 and blueline) can pretty much shut down the higher seed in four of seven games.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
No, sadly, you've misunderstood the study. You must be referring to the fact that Bernier's NHL to WHA PPG ratio is 0.48, quite low for this group of players. If this study was coming to a conclusion about Bernier based on that, then what you would be saying would be a good point. It's not always apples-to-apples if we're talking about players at different points in their careers. But that's not what I was doing. Bernier is, on that chart, nothing more than a data point in a very large set of data being used to establish the value of a WHA point compared to an NHL point. That value is 0.71. He's such a small part of the study that even if he was removed, that value would still show to be 0.71.
Does that make sense? If not, please re-read.
No, not necessarily. No one should ever claim one player to be better than another simply because his "best 6" scores are 3 points higher than the other in total. What this tells us is that they're essentially equal as prime regular season point producers. It's simply a starting point. There's much more to consider:
- Is there reason to believe either of them had their numbers boosted or dragged down by linemates?
- What did they do outside of those best 6 seasons?
- How did they do in the playoffs?
- Is one of them particularly goals-heavy compared to the other?
- What do they have for intangibles?
If we're talking about a larger gap, then maybe all this stuff doesn't matter.
Whatever happens, it won't be an upset. We all saw how close you guys were in the standings.
Good luck to both of you. tony d, you fought an honorable battle, and VI, if nothing else you can take the Miss Congeniality award.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Well, I did get a sportsmanship trophy in midget hockey. I'm not powdering up to be Miss AAA.
BillyShoe1721
Terriers
Atlanta defeats Rideau in 7 games.
3 Stars:
1. Alexei Zhamnov
2. Leo Reise Sr.
3. George Richardson
3 Stars:
1. Alexei Zhamnov
2. Leo Reise Sr.
3. George Richardson
BubbaBoot
Registered User
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Agreed. Either team would have been a solid winner and #2 seed in the division.
tony d
Registered User
Thanks to vanislander for a great series and the good debate. Looking forward to my first appearance in the final 4 in these drafts. What's the hold up on the other series? Be nice to get those going if we hope to get an AA draft started soon.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
I am proud of my guys. Every one I believe deserving of selection in this draft, at some point.
I do wonder if it would have been wiser to play Kelly Miller at right wing, where he has played siginificant time, and dressed Billy Harris as the fourth line center.
I am also appreciative of every one of the Atlanta Knights (well, the starting line-up anyways; my quibbles with one of the bench players isn't significant).
I may not like Janne Niinimaa in a top-4 role (an overhyped youth who never lived up to his potential) and Bodunov only spent two years on the Soviet national team so I wouldn't have him a starter in this draft (I might have let him slip to the Double-A), but Petr Klima - who averaged 30 goals a year over his first nine NHL seasons - is on the bench and I'm sure coach Hartley would live up to his reputation and play the veteran in clutch situations, Klima being a renowned scorer in big games, with, among his efforts when it counts, three of his five goals in the 1990 Stanley Cup championship being huge and following that up with a 40-goal season, before injury and hotheaded up-and-down play made the rest of his career less than it could've been. If he had more heart night in and night out and a stronger constitution he might have been a HHOFer, his talent level was that good. He could at least be a worthy playoff fourth liner in this draft.
Every one I believe deserving of selection in this draft, at some point. I do wonder if it would have been wiser to play Kelly Miller at right wing, where he has played siginificant time, and dressed Billy Harris as the fourth line center.
I am also appreciative of every one of the Atlanta Knights (well, the starting line-up anyways; my quibbles with one of the bench players isn't significant).
I may not like Janne Niinimaa in a top-4 role (an overhyped youth who never lived up to his potential) and Bodunov only spent two years on the Soviet national team so I wouldn't have him a starter in this draft (I might have let him slip to the Double-A), but Petr Klima - who averaged 30 goals a year over his first nine NHL seasons - is on the bench and I'm sure coach Hartley would live up to his reputation and play the veteran in clutch situations, Klima being a renowned scorer in big games, with, among his efforts when it counts, three of his five goals in the 1990 Stanley Cup championship being huge and following that up with a 40-goal season, before injury and hotheaded up-and-down play made the rest of his career less than it could've been. If he had more heart night in and night out and a stronger constitution he might have been a HHOFer, his talent level was that good. He could at least be a worthy playoff fourth liner in this draft.
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