Miscellaneous (but certainly not unimportant) Matters
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Previously I demonstrated that although our teams are a wash at even strength on the blueline and on the fourth line, my forwards on the first three lines do hold a significant and measurable advantage, and Kelly Hrudey is a clearly better goalie than Jose Theodore. Let’s look at some more details:
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Coaching:
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I don’t see it being a major factor in the series. These are two of the best coaches in the draft (3rd and 4th in all-star voting) and had similarly long careers. They both had a better win% in the regular season than the playoffs, where their teams tended to disappoint. Both have excellent Jack Adams voting records for this level. Martin’s specialty is boring defense and Sutter’s is in intensity and motivation.
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In Sutter’s bio I showed what happened to the teams he coached for, both before and after he arrived. Except in the case of Calgary, he demonstrated great improvements in the teams he coached, gains which were subsequently lost after he left. Using the same methodology for Martin:
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St. Louis: .529 before Martin, .485 with Martin, .504 after Martin.
Ottawa: .218 before Martin, .560 with Martin, .665 after Martin.
Florida: .442 before Martin, .520 with Martin, .455 after Martin.
Montreal: .601 before Martin, .533 with Martin, .654 after Martin.
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In St. Louis, Martin did not seem to make the situation any better. They got worse when he was there, and they got better after he left.
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Ottawa was an expansion team clearly on the rise, but credit is due to Martin for the turnaround he helped with. The .218 record represents 1995 and the part of the 1996 season that he did not coach. Specifically in that season, the other two coaches went .193, then he came in and went .316. By the time he left, they had amassed such a collection of talent, though, that they weren’t any worse off without him. This tenure was long and maybe the numbers are polluted by the middle years. It might best be described as, .218 before Martin, .421 after hiring Martin, .655 before firing Martin, .665 after firing Martin. Conclusion: in Ottawa, he clearly made the team better when he got there but they continued to improve even after he left.
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In Florida, it’s clearly demonstrable that he came in and made the team better than they were, and they declined after he left. (like Sutter did three times)
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In Montreal, it certainly appears the team got worse when he was there, and better after he left, like the St. Louis situation.
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Conclusion: Although Martin has demonstrated a clear ability to improve a team, he does not appear to have been as consistent at it as Sutter was.
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Power Play:
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The potential success of our power plays can be best ascertained by the raw offensive abilities of the players on our units, coupled with the skill set blend.
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On Birmingham’s PP1 we have:
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Name|Career $PPP|$PPP/S|6 season Peak $PPP
Greg Adams|229|17|109
Dan Quinn|260|25|165
Phil Kessel|152|23|148
Jaroslav Spacek|179|17|123
Mark Hardy|113|10|93
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On Regina we have:
Name|Career $PPP|$PPP/S|6 season Peak $PPP
Billy Harris|151|13|132
Petr Nedved|239|19|147
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Regina also has John Sorrell and Art Jackson, whose PP numbers are incomparable because the 1930s did not have PP stats tracked. We would only be able to go by their raw statistics. We also have Ivan Tregubov, whose numbers from the USSR and international tournaments are even more impossible to compare. All we know is that as an overall player he is likely well overqualified for this draft, in international tournaments he scored at 90% of the rate of Russia’s Bobby Orr, Nikolai Sologubov, and at about 2/3 his rate in the soviet league while both were in their primes (1955-1964), and that they said his shot could cut off a leg.
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Off the bat I see Adams and Harris as comparables. Adams has a longer and more established history of being used on the PP. However, Harris’ peak PP production was much better. Both guys aren’t here to be big scorers but assumedly the digger and net presence. They should be reasonably close in effectiveness. Jackson is a guy who I’d say is about 20% more potent offensively than Quinn with all things considered, but Quinn was pretty much a PP specialist so if we’re going to criticize him as an ES 2nd liner we should at least give credit where it’s due on the PP. Quinn should be able to equal Jackson. Kessel and Sorrell, as I’ve been saying, are about equal as PP performers since they are as overall performers. So we’re even at forward. At the point, Spacek is a pretty good pointman for the AAA level. So is Nedved. Nedved is a legitimate QB with elite vision though – is Spacek a QB or was he just a guy with a big shot? Mark Hardy is a very weak 1st unit PP guy for the AAA, with just 113 career adjusted PP points – he’s the lowest on either list in career total, career average, and 6 year peak. He’s not going to be very effective on the PP. Tregubov is, of course, a question mark, but he appears to have the offensive instincts to score points and the shot to both make use of Nedved’s vision and make up for Nedved’s lack of a slapshot in his arsenal. Our first PP unit should perform better thanks to better pointmen.
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On the second unit we have for Birmingham:
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Name|Career $PPP|$PPP/S|6 season Peak $PPP
Randy Burridge|116|13|91
John Cullen|205|26|179
Wayne Connelly*|161|15|153
Brad Stuart|100|9|92
Paul Martin|116|16|101
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*Connelly’s numbers are estimated using a reasonable proportion of PP to ES points and WHA adjustments.
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On Regina:
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Name|Career $PPP|$PPP/S|6 season Peak $PPP
Patrice Brisebois|227|18|137
Al Hamilton*|99|11|80
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*Hamilton’s are estimated the same way as Connelly’s.
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Analysis: Again, Regina’s forwards are stacked with older offensive players so all we have is raw stats to go by. Cullen is much more of a PP specialist than I ever realized. He shows up well here in all PP metrics. This is similar to the Quinn/Jackson comparison. Though Boll is approximately as potent overall, Cullen did appear to specialize on the PP and there’s no evidence that Boll did. Cullen should be more effective. On the LW, we’re comparing Burridge, whose career numbers for the PP are very weak, with a guy whose offensive stats put him up in first line territory when it comes to this draft. Obviously there is no way to judge McDonald as a PP scorer specifically, but he is immensely more talented than Burridge. Connelly is an OK PP player but he’s up against a Kessel-level talent in Sorrell. Advantage to Regina there. On the points, Brisebois has, by far, the best PP peak, the best career average (better than Martin who hasn’t gotten old enough to decline) and more career points than Stuart and Martin combined. Brisebois is, simply put, an outstanding AAA 2nd unit PP QB. Stuart and Martin are both quite underwhelming in that regard. Note that Stuart is not even a regular PP player in real life; almost all of his career PP points came in 6 of his 13 seasons. That said, Hamilton is not particularly impressive in this regard, either. He’s more similar to Stuart and Martin – passable but nothing special. Brisebois on the point is the trump card for the Regina unit.
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So in both cases it really comes down to superior pointmen. Birmingham just can’t touch ours.
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Penalty Kills
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On Birmingham’s 1st unit:
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Name|Career GP|Usage|Success
Tomas Plekanec|628|32%|+15%
Matt Cooke|965|30%|+14%
Barret Jackman|670|48%|+10%
Paul Martin|607|45%|+16%
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On Regina’s:
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Name|Career GP|Usage|Success
Lorne Henning|543|57%|+25%
Mike Murphy|965|36%|-6%
Brad Marsh|1086|49%|+10%
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Reg Hamilton, a 1930s player, is not included. All we can go by is his team’s defensive results. Looking at the 8 seasons in which he played the most games, his teams averaged 9% better than the league average defensively, so it’s a reasonable assumption that they were about that good on the PK. Hamilton played 8.64 seasons worth of games. He was one of four main defensemen on the team and one of the more defensively oriented ones. On the other hand, teams split PK minutes among six defensemen now instead of 4. If I had to estimate, Hamilton’s numbers would read “708/50%/+9%â€. Hamilton and Jackman would approximately wash out. Marsh is better than Martin. If you take his best 600 games, to put them on an even playing field for averages, he was killing 43% for teams 22% better than average. Martin is good though. Up front, Cooke has had more success than Murphy (Murphy’s greater usage doesn’t outweigh the team success) but Henning absolutely destroys Plekanec and every other AAA forward. The minor advantages for Marsh and Cooke wash out, leaving Regina with a huge edge at center. As good as Plekanec is, Henning is a pure PK specialist who will be far more successful.
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On Birmingham’s 2nd unit:
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Name|Career GP|Usage|Success
Radek Bonk|969|17%|+6%
Pat Boutette|756|27%|-16%
Brad Stuart|946|47%|+2%
Lyle Odelein|1056|27%|0
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Regina has:
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Name|Career GP|Usage|Success
Tony Granato|774|20%|-4%[/quote]
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Also on the Regina unit: Cully Dahlstrom (pre-expansion), Ivan Tregubov (soviet), and Art Moore (pre-NHL).
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Boutette and Granato are about a wash. They are similarly styled players and I think Boutette’s slight edge in usage is offset by the fact that his teams were terrible on the PK and Granato’s were about average. From there we’re comparing Bonk and Dahlstrom. Bonk was an excellent ES player and I gave him credit for that in the 4th line comparisons. But as a PKer, he’s pretty weak. Passable at best on a AAA 2nd unit. 17% usage is the big problem here. Dahlstrom, on the other hand, is frequently mentioned as a penalty killer in contemporary reports, which is very significant considering it’s rare that you see specific mentions of it. It’s reasonable to assume he was one of the best PK forwards of his day. Big advantage for Dahlstrom. On D, Stuart is solid, with good usage for average teams. Odelein’s 27% usage means he didn’t even kill more than his share of penalties (33% if it was split evenly among defensemen). He’s quite underwhelming here. On the other hand, Regina’s got two guys for whom a lot of guesswork must be done. Moore was a stay at home physical player who helped anchor an early dynasty. Tregubov, again, as an overall player, is overqualified for this draft. His bio discusses his physical strength, smarts in his own zone, knocking the puck away, speed and one-on-one defense. With those skills, it’s safe to say that, at a minimum, he is a good AAA PKer. He and Stuart wash out. Moore, question marks and all, should be at least average, which is more than I can say for the little-used Odelein. Thanks to advantages at Moore and especially Dahlstrom, Regina’s 2nd unit is better.
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Special teams conclusions
: Regina’s pointmen make their 1st unit better. Wingers plus Brisebois make the 2nd unit easily better. Henning is the trump card on the first PK units and Dahlstrom on the 2nd.
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Leadership
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Regina’s significantly stacked in terms of leadership. This is important in a playoff series as you want the guys who know how to motivate the team and smooth out those highs and lows – people who won’t let the team lose, or will will them to win. We have so many leaders we couldn’t even give them a letter. Birmingham struggled to even figure out who could wear a C:
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Regina’s leaders:
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1.****** Mike Murphy (C) – captained the LA kings for six seasons, scouting reports said he was “very respected in NHL circlesâ€
2.****** Brad Marsh (A) – outstanding leadership skills well-supported in his bio. Wore the C for a season in Atlanta and again in Ottawa
3.****** Al Hamilton (A) – 4 year Edmonton captain in the WHA
4.****** Art Moore – captained the Ottawa Silver Seven for their last Stanley Cup
5.****** Tony Granato – outstanding leadership skills well-supported in his bio, wore an A most of his career.
6.****** Ivan Tregubov – “dedication, ruthlessness, loathing for defeatâ€
7.****** Billy Harris – some decent mention of leadership in his bio
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Birmingham’s leaders:
1.****** Rick Dudley (C) – captained Cincinnati in the WHA for 2 seasons
2.****** Barret Jackman (A) – usually wears an A in St. Louis
3.****** Paul Martin (A) – has he even worn an A in real life???
4.****** Lyle Odelein – first captain of Columbus
5.****** Matt Cooke – good dressing room guy, I did find one picture with an A
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I searched really hard but could not find pictures of most of Birmingham’s guys even wearing an A. the best 4 leaders in this series are all on Regina.
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Defense from the forwards
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We’ve agreed our defensive corps are about equal in terms of overall ability. My forwards enjoy a sizeable edge offensively. But how do they stack up defensively against this team of grinders? I’ll try to isolate even strength play as best as I can. Rankings are based on the player’s reputations based on quotes, stats, and whatever else is relevant.
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Radek Bonk
Tomas Plekanec
Mike Murphy
Billy Harris
Art Jackson
Lorne Henning
Cully Dahlstrom
Buzz Boll
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Matt Cooke
Pat Boutette
Randy Burridge
Tony Granato
Greg Adams
Rick Dudley
Jack McDonald
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Justin Williams
John Cullen
Willi Plett
Alexander Golikov
Wayne Connelly
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John Sorrell
Petr Nedved
Phil Kessel
Dan Quinn
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Explanations: I think stats, award voting and recognition support Bonk and Plekanec being the best defensive players here. However, Regina’s forward corps is filled with guys (Murphy, Harris, Jackson, Henning, Dahlstrom and Boll) that have good to great quotes supporting their defensive, checking, or two way play. The next tier is filled with guys who are more on the “plus†side but not great. Cooke, Boutette and Burridge make it this high by being gritty hard working players who killed some penalties but not known as “checking guys†per se. Granato belongs with them, as shown by his quotes in his bio. Not skilled defensively, but works hard enough to be in the right places. Adams and Dudley are a bit lesser version of those guys; their extremely low PK numbers (9%, 5%) indicate their defensive resumes are not particularly strong. The next tier is guys who have some reason to believe they can be good or bad. Williams plays with strong defensive forwards so he doesn’t have to be one, but my opponent thinks he’s great, but the first scouting report I pulled said he was bad. Cullen was better when his offense faded, worse when he was scoring. Plett was called a two-way player early in his career but was called weak later. Golikov was criticized for his work ethic earlier but became a valuable penalty killer later. Connelly reads as a one-dimensional goal-scoring forward, except I’m pretty sure I read he actually played defense for a short time, so some ability exists there. The last group is guys who we have no reason to believe are any good. Sorrell tops the list as he’s at least called a hustling player. Nedved had the size to be effective if he had to be, plus his excellent faceoff skills are a defensive asset. Kessel was known to be bad his whole career and is still not yet average. Quinn… was always bad.
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Conclusion: Regina should receive better defensive play throughout its lineup.
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Toughness at forward:
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We’ve already touched on toughness on defense and it’s about even. Does anyone have the edge in toughness/grit/physicality at forward? Same type of exercise I used regarding defense:
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Willi Plett
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Pat Boutette
Tony Granato
Matt Cooke
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Mike Murphy
Rick Dudley
Randy Burridge
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Greg Adams
Billy Harris
Jack McDonald
Cully Dahlstrom
Buzz Boll
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John Cullen
Radek Bonk
Tomas Plekanec
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Art Jackson
Lorne Henning
Justin Williams
Wayne Connelly
Petr Nedved
Alexander Golikov
Dan Quinn
John Sorrell
Phil Kessel
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Explanations: Plett is on another level for toughness here, easily. Boutette, Granato and Cooke are all pretty similar and I think belong in this order. Murphy, Dudley and Burridge belong in the “pretty physical†range. Adams, Harris, McDonald, Dahlstrom and Boll are there for a variety of reasons. Adams was physical and inconsistent, Harris was physical but not mean, McDonald was “powerful†yet extremely small, Dahlstrom was courageous but not necessarily physical, and Boll was an all-around player with no real weaknesses. The next group is guys who were more or less average. Cullen showed some grit later. Bonk was big and could be physical but usually wasn’t. Plekanec isn’t soft but certainly isn’t physical.* The last group is guys with no physicality to speak of. Jackson and Henningwere checkers but relied on smarts. Williams is quite docile. Connelly we know little to nothing about. Nedved at least had size. Golikov is a mystery. Quinn was very non-physical. Sorrell is never mentioned as physical at all, and has tiny PIM numbers. Kessel is not quite “soft†but is the least physical player here.
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Conclusion: There is no discernable edge in physicality/grit/toughness among forwards or defensemen on these teams.
