Salary Cap: AA and Mantha's next contracts

[Ulysses31]

How would you handle this? Get them signed early or let them prove themselves this year?

I think mantha is going to score 30 plus goals so i think if the wings could get him signed for something like 5x5 or 6x6 it might be worth it. AA on the other hand I wouldn't want to give that much term or money at the moment.

EDIT: also Bertuzzi, who i also think would be worth signing early, maybe at 4milx5 or 6 years

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[Mlotek]

How would you handle this? Get them signed early or let them prove themselves this year?

I think mantha is going to score 30 plus goals so i think if the wings could get him signed for something like 5x5 or 6x6 it might be worth it. AA on the other hand I wouldn't want to give that much term or money at the moment.

EDIT: also Bertuzzi, who i also think would be worth signing early, maybe at 4milx5 or 6 years

I have serious doubts Mantha can stay consistent/motivated throughout the entire season to score 30 goals. Keep in mind 15 of his points came in the last 8 games, a quite unsustainable pace.

I see Konecny's 5.5x6 as the low end for Mantha, but he is probably going to ask for considerably more. Asking something like Evander Kane's 7x7 wouldn't be unreasonable.

Kane never hit 60 points in the league, but can score 30 goals. Not to mention goalscorers tend to get paid at a premium.

AA's offence is predicated 100% on his speed. Once that declines so does his offence. I would consider any contract going past age 30/31 to be risky, at least on the back end of the deal.

Forwards also tend to hit their offensive peaks by the time they are 27. Meaning you can probably expect career highs from Mantha/AA over the next 2 seasons before the plateau and inevitable decline (regression).

 

[Ricelund]

I've always had the feeling that AA isn't a long-term piece in Detroit. I think Yzerman will trade him in the next year or two.

 

[BinCookin]

You know i look at these really long deals, and quite frankly the team often overpays more often than under pays. I mean if you can get Mantha Longterm on 4.8M or 5.2M... do it. but if the long term is 6M, 6.5M, 7M... Id prefer he prove he is worth that by scoring 30 this year.

I think Yzerman negotiated good contracts in TB, but Detroit may not get the same leverage.

Also we should ask ourselves... is Mantha going to be our 2nd line RW, or 1st line RW. Because if you pay him for 1st line RW, then demote him when Zadina gets good. You will likely be overpaying him.

 

[Ulysses31]

mantha ended season strong, was great at worlds and been good in preseason
i would consider a 6x6. could score 40 goals and 80 points.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

If we can get Mantha at 6 x 6 and AA 6 x 5.5 and Bertuzzi 6 x 4 that would be pretty decent. Possibly AA is moved for top 4 D help in a year or so.

 

[wingfan]

I have a feeling that a lot of it is going to be predicated on the excellent deal Larkin is signed to. I can see Mantha signing no problems for a 5x5 or 6x6 type deal depending on how the season goes. With AA's past history, I feel like he's going to go the "f*** you, pay me" route and that's when Yzerman ships him out.

 

[MBH]

6 years for AA or Mantha would be smart.
If you go 2-3 years on either and decide to trade one... you might not have much value if you go the trade route. Look at the Nyquist vs Tatar trade returns.


I also disagree with any assessment that puts Athanasiou well below Mantha.
Despite Mantha playing much of his career with whoever happened to be Detroit's #1 center, and AA playing with the leftovers, here are there stats.
Athanasiou 3573 minutes 73 goals 57 assists 130 points
Mantha 3649 minutes 68 goals 67 assists 135 points.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

I have a feeling that a lot of it is going to be predicated on the excellent deal Larkin is signed to. I can see Mantha signing no problems for a 5x5 or 6x6 type deal depending on how the season goes. With AA's past history, I feel like he's going to go the "**** you, pay me" route and that's when Yzerman ships him out.

AA has scored at a 20-goal/season pace since the first season he stepped into the NHL, and scored 30 goals in 76 games at the age of 24. Most 30 goal scorers in the NHL last season were making at least 5.5 million. AA also scores most of his goals at ES and scores at the same pace no matter which line he is on. If he ups his goals/points numbers and compete level again this season he will easily be able to command 6.5/year and I don't think it would be ridiculous for him to do so. Having AA on a line automatically makes that line dangerous and hard to play against and that is worth a lot of money.

Mantha is great but I really believe AA is the more valuable player.

 

[MBH]

I have a feeling that a lot of it is going to be predicated on the excellent deal Larkin is signed to. I can see Mantha signing no problems for a 5x5 or 6x6 type deal depending on how the season goes. With AA's past history, I feel like he's going to go the "**** you, pay me" route and that's when Yzerman ships him out.

Larkin's deal eats how many UFA years?
1? 2?
Doesn't compare.
I don't think AA will be easy to sign. But there's no f***ing reason on earth for any NHLer to take a discount to play in Detroit right now.

 

[masta8]

30-35 goal scorers are rare to come by and AA with his skill and speed his floor may be 30 goals every year based on just his skillset. Mantha is important but AA is certainly extremely valuable imo.

 

[Henkka]

Current values:

Mantha 6-7M player
Athanasiou 5-6M player
Bertuzzi 3-4M player.

Mantha signed long-term, Bertuzzi short-term.

Athanasiou traded at some point.

 

[Shaman464]

6 years for AA or Mantha would be smart.
If you go 2-3 years on either and decide to trade one... you might not have much value if you go the trade route. Look at the Nyquist vs Tatar trade returns.


I also disagree with any assessment that puts Athanasiou well below Mantha.
Despite Mantha playing much of his career with whoever happened to be Detroit's #1 center, and AA playing with the leftovers, here are there stats.
Athanasiou 3573 minutes 73 goals 57 assists 130 points
Mantha 3649 minutes 68 goals 67 assists 135 points.

I don't think playing with Larkin would change much, as most of AA's goals and points are from the rush, and rarely are because of effective use of teammates.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

30-35 goal scorers are rare to come by and AA with his skill and speed his floor may be 30 goals every year based on just his skillset. Mantha is important but AA is certainly extremely valuable imo.

Slow your roll a little bit. 30 is his floor? He literally just hit that as his career high last season. Floor does not mean something that you did once.
With that being the case, Abdelkader's floor should be 20 goals... we know that's clearly not the case.

One of Mantha or AA should be dealt. Optimally, you have a top line with guys who are better than them and then you have one of them at around 5.5-6.5 as a key on the second line. If Zadina, Berggren, Veleno, perhaps 2020 #1pick are here and top 6 material, you're getting dangerously close to paying ~6M for a 3rd line wing. It isn't that they're not valuable, but if you can deal them and address your D like you haven't in 25 years and trust in your forward drafting and developing, it would probably be a good idea.

Lil Bert should be locked up. I'd see if he'd do long term at around 4M now, because he'll become a bargain at that price if he keeps going up and will be valued about right if he just plateaus. I don't like putting 14-16M into the three of them, even if it's fair market value for them all. I'd rather have the flexibility cap wise and personnel wise that dealing one of them + for a defensive upgrade would give you.

 

[Tetsuo]

Current values:

Mantha 6-7M player
Athanasiou 5-6M player
Bertuzzi 3-4M player.

Mantha signed long-term, Bertuzzi short-term.

Athanasiou traded at some point.

Much of their value is going to depend on how well this season goes. If all three eclipse 50 points or even 60 (with AA and/or Mantha scoring 30 goals) their values could skyrocket. 30 goal scorers are always paid premium. I could see Bert getting into the 4.5 mil range too. At this point in the rebuild, I wouldn't bet on any one player on the team today, other than Larkin or Hronek, being above the trade block. AA or Mantha are easily worth a 1st+ on a contender being cost controlled top 6 wingers in their prime.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Larkin's deal eats how many UFA years?
1? 2?
Doesn't compare.
I don't think AA will be easy to sign. But there's no ****ing reason on earth for any NHLer to take a discount to play in Detroit right now.

If we're being truly honest, there shouldn't ever be a reason for any NHL player to take a discount to play anywhere. The only reason they should take one is if they're still being made reasonably whole (like getting 50M instead of 60M if they went balls to the wall in negotiation) or it's like Stamkos in Tampa or Ovi in Washington (pre Cup) or whatever. If you're comfortable on the team you're playing on and like the city, I can see it, even if the team sucks.

 

[Tetsuo]

I think the player that will be on the move will be AA. He already has a 30 goal season and he can be just as effective on a contender's 3rd line vs a bottom-tier 1st or 2nd line. He is like the anti-Nyquist in that sense, who is a pretty decent secondary scoring option but needs to be carried by his center to maximize his effectiveness. AA just needs players to clean up after him and he can put on a show.

 

[Henkka]

Much of their value is going to depend on how well this season goes.

Just sign them early. I don't think Bertuzzi is problematic ever with his production, but Mantha could be.

 

[SirloinUB]

Just sign them early. I don't think Bertuzzi is problematic ever with his production, but Mantha could be.

They have to want to sign. Most young players these days are betting on themselves to up their value through their play.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

I think the player that will be on the move will be AA. He already has a 30 goal season and he can be just as effective on a contender's 3rd line vs a bottom-tier 1st or 2nd line. He is like the anti-Nyquist in that sense, who is a pretty decent secondary scoring option but needs to be carried by his center to maximize his effectiveness. AA just needs players to clean up after him and he can put on a show.

Athanasiou's speed and ability to make plays at high speed make every line he is on a scoring threat. He is a lot more than secondary scoring. He is the definition of primary scoring.

Detroit fans rag on him because he stood up for himself in contract negotiations but at this point in time he is absolutely worth more than Mantha. Detroit fans need to remember that this team isn't a contender anymore and no one owes them any hometown discounts. Holland tried to low-ball him because he's a fool but AA has earned every penny of his contract.

If Athanasiou played in front of defensemen who could headman the puck he would be a 20 goal scorer on just the break-in. His speed alone gives him 40 goal potential and if he had linemates he could actually pass to he would be a 80 point player at peak.

I dont see Yzerman trading him unless it's for a top-5 pick or signed first-pair defenseman. In short, I don't see Yzerman trading him. I would give Mantha 5.5x4, Bertuzzi 4.5x4, and AA 6.5x4 (provided they repeat last season's numbers). That puts about 22.5 million long-term on their top four offensive forwards.

 

[MBH]

One of Mantha or AA should be dealt. Optimally, you have a top line with guys who are better than them and then you have one of them at around 5.5-6.5 as a key on the second line. If Zadina, Berggren, Veleno, perhaps 2020 #1pick are here and top 6 material, you're getting dangerously close to paying ~6M for a 3rd line wing.

No point in trading either until one of the other guys cracks 20-25G.
Trading AA, probably a top 15 5-on-5 goal scorer in the NHL...I just don't get the sense in it.
For a draft pick?

We don't yet know if Zadina will ever be a 30-goal man.
Mantha couldn't hit it either of the last two years despite spending most of his time on Line 1. Berggren has yet to score in 30 Swede league games. Veleno is a center. Svechnikov is still a giant IF. Rasmussen is apparently moving to C, and even if he moves back to Wing, he might never be a 5-on-5 producer.

I don't know if there's a good enough reason to trade AA or Mantha.
A similarly aged top 4 defense, I'd guess.

 

[The Red Line]

I do worry about RFA negotiations after how things went around the league this off season.

 

[Tetsuo]

Athanasiou's speed and ability to make plays at high speed make every line he is on a scoring threat. He is a lot more than secondary scoring. He is the definition of primary scoring.

Detroit fans rag on him because he stood up for himself in contract negotiations but at this point in time he is absolutely worth more than Mantha. Detroit fans need to remember that this team isn't a contender anymore and no one owes them any hometown discounts. Holland tried to low-ball him because he's a fool but AA has earned every penny of his contract.

If Athanasiou played in front of defensemen who could headman the puck he would be a 20 goal scorer on just the break-in. His speed alone gives him 40 goal potential and if he had linemates he could actually pass to he would be a 80 point player at peak.

I dont see Yzerman trading him unless it's for a top-5 pick or signed first-pair defenseman. In short, I don't see Yzerman trading him. I would give Mantha 5.5x4, Bertuzzi 4.5x4, and AA 6.5x4 (provided they repeat last season's numbers). That puts about 22.5 million long-term on their top four offensive forwards.

Gonna have to disagree on AA being an 80 point player. His Hockey IQ will never be good enough to be a 40/40 type player. I could see him peaking as a faster Jeff Skinner, who has great quickness and goal scoring ability, but his overall play is not well rounded enough (again IMO) to be one of the key players on a team. Admittedly, this year will be a huge year for him, I think he has potential still to be a 35+ goal scorer, but at this point I feel like we have seen the kind of player AA is.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No point in trading either until one of the other guys cracks 20-25G.
Trading AA, probably a top 15 5-on-5 goal scorer in the NHL...I just don't get the sense in it.
For a draft pick?

We don't yet know if Zadina will ever be a 30-goal man.
Mantha couldn't hit it either of the last two years despite spending most of his time on Line 1. Berggren has yet to score in 30 Swede league games. Veleno is a center. Svechnikov is still a giant IF. Rasmussen is apparently moving to C, and even if he moves back to Wing, he might never be a 5-on-5 producer.

I don't know if there's a good enough reason to trade AA or Mantha.
A similarly aged top 4 defense, I'd guess.

No, not for a draft pick. For a similarly aged, similarly talented D. That's why I'd trade them. It wouldn't be for a magic bean or a package of magic beans. It would be for a guy in the ilk of a Justin Faulk (better than him because Faulk was one dimensional) For more balance in the roster. A trade of something like AA now for Adam Larsson then would probably have been more equal to the value than Hall for Larsson. Jersey wouldn't have done it because in the Hall for Larsson trade they made out like bandits and that would be at best a wash and likely them taking the loss in the deal.

It's more that I don't necessarily feel that interested in having those three (Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi) making 15-18M combined long term. 5.5-6.5 for AA, 5.5-6.5 Mantha, 4.5-5 Bertuzzi. I don't think you should necessarily pay them just because they're the best guys we have right now. Particularly if they could be useful assets to supplement the defense.

 

[Konnan511]

AA and Mantha are going going to pushing 6mil a season, if not more, especially if they aren't signed until after this season. They about to have career years.