A test of a new way to compare players at ES

[Jacob8hockey*]

Hey guys so I've attempted to do a stat which ranks the players on how well they performed overall at even strength with a couple different factors (even strength goals for and against along with even strength TOI and QoC).

Here is Boston, Toronto, and NYR. No point in comparing across teams as it only shows comparisons within one team. Red is defense and Blue in offense.

NOTE: These have been updated. About the first page and half would be discussion on my older post. The final column is the results. Disregard the 2nd last as I forgot to delete it.

Click to read more...

 

[ChuckWoods]

Hey guys so I've attempted to do a stat which ranks the players on how well they performed overall at even strength with a couple different factors. Ill post the order of the players by position. I think it turned out well but i'd like a couple other voices. Try to take away any player biases for this. The only player who may have benefited from this was Clarkson and Bodie but other than that I think it is pretty good.

Forwards:
Kessel
Bozak
JVR
Bodie
Kadri
Raymond
Holland
Lupul
Kulemin
Clarkson
Bolland
Ashton
Smith
McClement
D'Amigo
Orr
Smithson

Defense:
Gardiner
Phaneuf
Gunnarsson
Ranger
Rielly
Franson

So what do you guys think. Accurate at all?

Care to list the factors and what was taken into account?


I can compile a list to and say "I've calculated a formula to show the best player in the league" then put Kessel over Crosby on my list.

 

[King85Kong]

Not really sure how they're being judged and ranked. What is the breakdown.

 

[diceman934]

Care to list the factors and what was taken into account?


I can compile a list to and say "I've calculated a formula to show the best player in the league" then put Kessel over Crosby on my list.

You beat me to it.

Hard to comment if we do not have a clue about what was used and how the data was collected.

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

The goals scored on and off the ice at even strength along with their TOI. Pretty much how productive are the players in their offense compared to their defense all at even strength.

I was hoping you guys would comment on the list WITHOUT any more information to see if it was accurate in how their performed overall.

All data used if based on even strength stats relative to their own team. Ill post the actual data afterwards I am just testing out the LA Kings first too to see how it works. I am hoping that the stats will be comparable between teams.


NOTE: I know advanced stat might not be the best thing to call it but I didn't really know what else to.

 

[diceman934]

The goals scored on and off the ice at even strength along with their TOI. Pretty much how productive are the players in their offense compared to their defense all at even strength.

I was hoping you guys would comment on the list WITHOUT any more information to see if it was accurate in how their performed overall.

All data used if based on even strength stats relative to their own team. Ill post the actual data afterwards I am just testing out the LA Kings first too to see how it works. I am hoping that the stats will be comparable between teams.


NOTE: I know advanced stat might not be the best thing to call it but I didn't really know what else to.

G/60

I do not know how you are calculating this nor the weight given for each piece of data....but when you are taking data and putting different pieces together it changes the intent in most cases.

 

[yubbers]

Phaneufs a number 2?
Bullet proof work sir

Joking aside I'd say it stacked up the team quite well

 

[Teeder9]

Are you telling us that every single player on the Leafs had more goals scored against them then they contributed?

 

[King85Kong]

The goals scored on and off the ice at even strength along with their TOI. Pretty much how productive are the players in their offense compared to their defense all at even strength.

I was hoping you guys would comment on the list WITHOUT any more information to see if it was accurate in how their performed overall.

All data used if based on even strength stats relative to their own team. Ill post the actual data afterwards I am just testing out the LA Kings first too to see how it works. I am hoping that the stats will be comparable between teams.


NOTE: I know advanced stat might not be the best thing to call it but I didn't really know what else to.

Still not getting how exactly it was calculated. Is it GF-GA/TOI? Sorry don't mean to be rude, just confused. Hard to judge when you don't know the criteria. If you just want to know how we felt they played last year then I would go;

(Quick List)
Kessel
JVR
Kadri
Bozak
Lupul
Kulemin
Holland
Raymond
Bolland
McClement
Bodie
Clarkson
Ashton
Smith
D'Amigo
Orr
Smithson

Defense:
Phaneuf
Gardiner
Gunnarsson
Rielly
Franson
Ranger

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

G/60

I do not know how you are calculating this nor the weight given for each piece of data....but when you are taking data and putting different pieces together it changes the intent in most cases.

Goals for that the player is on the ice for(ES)/Goals for whole team (ES) (Data 1)
Goals against that player on the ice (ES)/Goals against whole team (ES) (Data 2)

Data 1/Data 2 = Data 3

Data 3 x Player's ES TOI.

Heres an example for Kessel and Clarkson


69 GF 61 GA (Kessel) 181 GF 198 GA (Team)
19 GF 31 GA (Clarkson)

69/181 = 0.38 [How many teams total goals for ES they were on the ice for]
61/198 = 0.31 [How many teams total goals against ES they were on the ice for]
0.38/0.31 = 1.24 [Was it a positive outcome (1+) or a negative outcome (0.99-)]
1.24 x 17.30 (ES TOI) = 21.41 [Multiply by TOI to represent how much of the ice time was theirs to compare between players]

19/181 = .10
31/198 = .16
.10/.16 = 0.67
0.67 x 14.01 = 9.39


Once you get that number you rank the players from highest to lowest.

Are you telling us that every single player on the Leafs had more goals scored against them then they contributed?

No.



Also the stat doesn't seem to transfer well between teams.

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Still not getting how exactly it was calculated. Is it GF-GA/TOI? Sorry don't mean to be rude, just confused. Hard to judge when you don't know the criteria. If you just want to know how we felt they played last year then I would go;

Posted now, sorry my data may seem stupid but I just threw it together while I was bored and felt it had legs.

 

[diceman934]

Goals for that the player is on the ice for(ES)/Goals for whole team (ES) (Data 1)
Goals against that player on the ice (ES)/Goals against whole team (ES) (Data 2)

Data 1/Data 2 = Data 3

Data 3 x Player's ES TOI.

Heres an example for Kessel and Clarkson


69 GF 61 GA (Kessel) 181 GF 198 GA (Team)
19 GF 31 GA (Clarkson)

69/181 = 0.38 [How many teams total goals for ES they were on the ice for]
61/198 = 0.31 [How many teams total goals against ES they were on the ice for]
0.38/0.31 = 1.24 [Was it a positive outcome (1+) or a negative outcome (0.99-)]
1.24 x 17.30 (ES TOI) = 21.41 [Multiply by TOI to represent how much of the ice time was theirs to compare between players]

19/181 = .10
31/198 = .16
.10/.16 = 0.67
0.67 x 14.01 = 9.39


Once you get that number you rank the players from highest to lowest.


No.



Also the stat doesn't seem to transfer well between teams.

Where are you getting your stats from for ES GF and ES GA

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Where are you getting your stats from for ES GF and ES GA

http://www.extraskater.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs/2013
Possession stats 5 on 5

Its about half way down the page.

For the Leaf total I just took their total goals and subtracted the power play and penalty kill goals.

 

[King85Kong]

Posted now, sorry my data may seem stupid but I just threw it together while I was bored and felt it had legs.

No worries. Think you had good intentions but the data will be flawed. Part A and B compares total goals for/against vs the team, then later x by TOI. But if a player is out for games then their individual numbers would not match up to the teams in the first part. Then when you x by TOI it will further not match up. Don't think it is an accurate way to judge players.

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

No worries. Think you had good intentions but the data will be flawed. Part A and B compares total goals for/against vs the team, then later x by TOI. But if a player is out for games then their individual numbers would not match up to the teams in the first part. Then when you x by TOI it will further not match up. Don't think it is an accurate way to judge players.

Thanks. Ya I didn't think of injury time. I originally calculated it as total time on ice (ES) but changed it back.

It is pretty much pointless after the GP though so ya it is flawed. I still feel it gave a decent list for the players.
It might have been better if I removed the team component and just used TOI and GF (ES) and GA (ES). This was more or less just something I threw together when trying to debate +/- and it turned out better than I expected.
Heres the Kings as well.

Forward:
Kopitar
Gaborik
Toffoli
Williams
King
Carter
Stoll
Brown
Clifford
Pearson
Vey
Carcillo
Richards
Nolan
Lewis
Frattin
Fraser

Defense:
Doughty
Mitchell
Martinez
Muzzin
Voynov
Regehr
Greene

Thanks everyone.

 

[diceman934]

http://www.extraskater.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs/2013
Possession stats 5 on 5

Its about half way down the page.

For the Leaf total I just took their total goals and subtracted the power play and penalty kill goals.

Ok, because that is not all the even strengths goals, it is just 5 on 5 numbers.


I think you are on to something, it just needs more data

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Ok, because that is not all the even strengths goals, it is just 5 on 5 numbers.


I think you are on to something, it just needs more data

It works well within one team but not between 2.

For example it still had Crosby/Malkin/Neal in that order (I didnt do them all just those 3)but it also had Niskanen as their top D man (and he blew everyone else out of the water).


I am going out now but Im going to follow up with this and try and polish it up.

 

[Cor]

Sooooo +/-????

 

[King85Kong]

Sooooo +/-????

And we all know how flawed that can be.

 

[crump]

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...d=28&type=individual&sort=icorsi&sortdir=DESC

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Sooooo +/-????

And we all know how flawed that can be.

It was pretty much suppose to be an alternative to +/-

 

[Rogie]

Isnt the GF% stat the same or close to what you are doing. It has TOI built into the stat.
GFper 20 to GA per 20 = GF%

And you can control for 5 on 5, or close- or ahead or behind by goals etc
or ANY number of situations.

I think BODIE and ASHTON come out on top likely a surprise to most.

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Isnt the GF% stat the same or close to what you are doing. It has TOI built into the stat.
GFper 20 to GA per 20 = GF%

And you can control for 5 on 5, or close- or ahead or behind by goals etc
or ANY number of situations.

I think BODIE and ASHTON come out on top likely a surprise to most.

Its very close yes but comparing the lists I have made they are similar but mine are different.

Same idea as it though.

Also Santorelli is the 2nd most useful (VAN) 5 on 5 when it comes to offense and defense according to these numbers

 

[bpower]

The formula is highly skewed towards players who play a lot of minutes. The G% is a much better stat for doing this. Although that doesn't really take in to account QoC (Quality of Competition)

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

The formula is highly skewed towards players who play a lot of minutes. The G% is a much better stat for doing this. Although that doesn't really take in to account QoC (Quality of Competition)

Actually the TOI plays less of a role than you would think. It may seem like a lot but because of Lupul's "poor performance" he drops drastically while being 4th on avg ES TOI. Same as Clarkson.

Where as someone like Holland and Bodie see a rise because of their "good performance" despite their lack of ice time compared to some others.