I guess for me, I really only need 2 categories. Ceiling, and liklihood of reaching it. Or Talent and Projection, in your system. I really already take development into consideration when coming up with my projection. If I see someone is not developing properly, then I'm lowering my projection. Or if I see someone is developing quickly or at least on schedule, then the projection remains up around "likely to reach ceiling".
I don't really see logically how I would rank someone as not developing but still likely to reach ceiling in projection. Or rather, I could see and accept that someone may not be developing properly at this point in time but if I subjectively think he's still going to reach his ceiling regardless, I wouldn't care how is development is going at this point in time in my ranking. When development becomes a problem, it shows up in my projection rating. Likewise, if I project a prospect to fall below his ceiling, I wouldn't care if he's going through accelerated development right now if I think he's going to eventually hit a wall and not be able to make the jump to become a regular NHL-er. I mean, how else do you jugde projection if not by looking at things like development?
So in your system, in most cases projection + development is double dipping. Someone developing well is already likely to have a good projection, while if a prospects development is suffering, their projection will likely lower as a result. It is good that combined they are weighted equally to talent, reducing the effect. That makes it kinda like development + projection = likelihood of reaching ceiling and its only really the 2 categories effectively.
But in other cases (see: grigs vs. girgs), it can tend to steer the ratings subjectively, rather than objectively
(I assume the goal here is to be objective). It just seems like - well everyone has their own subjective opinion on how likely a prospect is to reach their ceiling. If I'm being honest in my rankings, this system would downweight "my" subjective opinion on projection by "your" subjective opinion that development matters independently from projection. I want to be clear I'm not saying you're doing this intentionally or maliciously or that it is a bad opinion, just that it seems to be a side effect of the system as presented and I'm not sure if its what you were going for or not. You didn't end up with grigs and girgs ranked even based on ceiling and projection and needed a reason to rank girgs higher than grigs today, did you?
To use your system, I'd have to change how I think about projection - mainly that I'd have to come up with a way to give a projection rating that is not affected by the prospect's current development, and I'm not sure I could do that.
I think if I wanted a 3rd category other than talent and projection, it would be "intangibles". Is a player a good leader, is a player locker room cancer, is the "Russian factor" in affect, does the player exude poise and confidence on and off the ice, etc. Probably would weight them 45% talent, 45% projection, 10% intangibles.
I guess tl;dr: I don't really see development being separate from projection