A SERIOUS DISCUSSION - Justin Faulk

[Boom Boom Apathy]

All defensemen (>1550 minutes all situations):

-Giordano was up there with Brodie, and his circle was larger and darker blue, but the injury probably killed his Norris chances. It's unfortunate, because he was having a great year, even if he had an also excellent partner.

-Letang is the circle directly right of OEL, and you can see that he's excelling. Compare that to Karlsson and Yandle, who don't really kill penalties, and get softer minutes. I would probably call him the best OFD and the Norris winner if I had a vote.

-Faulk shows very well against his contemporaries. The trick will be to see how he handles business without Sekera attached to his hip. In the five games since he's been gone, Faulk is at 64.5 CF% at 5v5 and has more starts in the defensive zone than offensive. He also has 4 total points. So far, so good.

Interesting. In comparison, what does Sekera look like in his games without Faulk?

 

[What the Faulk]

Interesting. In comparison, what does Sekera look like in his games without Faulk?

EDIT: I forgot Sekera wasn't traded on deadline day. This adjusts the numbers a bit.

1 total assist, 56.4 CF% at 5v5, but more offensive zone starts. His most common partner is Brayden McNabb, whose 71 minutes with Sekera makes him his second most common linemate after Faulk.

This is jarring though:

Faulk GF% on the ice: 50%
Carolina GF% Faulk off the ice: 47.6%
Faulk CF% on the ice: 61%
Carolina CF% Faulk off the ice: 53.1%

It's only 7 games, but they're predictably worse when he's been off the ice. For comparison:

Sekera GF% on the ice: 50%
LA GF% Sekera off the ice: 57.1%
Sekera CF% on the ice: 56.4%
LA CF% Sekera off the ice: 53.3%

So LA is still very solid even when Sekera is not on the ice (which we also kind of knew). But he has had a positive impact.

 

[Ole Gil]

When you look at that chart, and see the clear Top left to bottom right red to blue shift, does it make you rethink 'zone starts don't matter much' at all?

And when comparing Faulk to others on Carolina, there should be a way to exclude the McClement line. If you remove them from the equation, I wonder how dramatic those Faulk stats would be.

Dwyer Malone and Bellemore are the only sub 50 CF guys when not playing with Jay. Looking at Riley Nash's splits, it appears he was doing McClement's current role for a while, probably towards the beginning of the year, and Dwyer/Malone were with him at that time.

Unrelated, why is GF% not considered a repackaged +/-. I'm of the opinion +/- isn't that bad in context, so I don't mind. Just funny that goal differential is the worst least useful stupidest stat ever, but goal ratio is 2 legit 2 quit.

 

[nobuddy]

When you look at that chart, and see the clear Top left to bottom right red to blue shift, does it make you rethink 'zone starts don't matter much' at all?

And when comparing Faulk to others on Carolina, there should be a way to exclude the McClement line. If you remove them from the equation, I wonder how dramatic those Faulk stats would be.

Dwyer Malone and Bellemore are the only sub 50 CF guys when not playing with Jay. Looking at Riley Nash's splits, it appears he was doing McClement's current role for a while, probably towards the beginning of the year, and Dwyer/Malone were with him at that time.

Unrelated, why is GF% not considered a repackaged +/-. I'm of the opinion +/- isn't that bad in context, so I don't mind. Just funny that goal differential is the worst least useful stupidest stat ever, but goal ratio is 2 legit 2 quit.

Competition matters a lot more than zone starts. Ex: Brodie has a better CF% rel than Kronwall, because he plays slightly weaker competition even though he has tougher zone starts.

 

[Ole Gil]

Competition matters a lot more than zone starts. Ex: Brodie has a better CF% rel than Kronwall, because he plays slightly weaker competition even though he has tougher zone starts.

Brodie sticks out because Calgary is a terrible possession team. Brodie's actual CF% is only 46.6. His blue'ish circle (compared to Kronwall) isn't about softer competition as much as being on an unnaturally bad possession team.

Kronwall for example is at 50.4%. But the guys getting the easy competition/zstarts in Detroit are actually doing what you'd expect with it, like in most places around the league.