A Contender's Salary Structure

[Stephen]

So in the various Stamkos defense threads I came up with a general salary structure anticipating what a cap team might look like in 3-4 years when our current crop of ELC's have expired and we might be looking at big contracts for Matthews, Marner and Nylander as well as notable UFA signings like Stamkos. As the Leafs are starting to lock in their RFAs and with the Andersen signing, I just wanted to revisit what a $77 million salary cap budget might look like:

Forward 1: $10 million
Forward 2: $8 million
Forward 3: $7 million
Forward 4: $5 million
Forward 5: $4 million (Kadri $4.5 million)
Forward 6: $2.5 million
Forward 7: $2 million
Forward 8: $1.5 million Veteran Project
Forward 9: $1.5 million Veteran Project
Forward 10: $1.5 million Veteran Project
Forward 11: $900,000 ELC
Forward 12: $900,000 ELC

Defenseman 1: $8 million
Defenseman 2 $6 million (Rielly $5 million)
Defenseman 3 $5 million (Gardiner $4.05 million)
Defenseman 4 $2 million
Defenseman 5 $2 million
Defenseman 6 $2 million Veteran
Defenseman 7 $900,000 ELC

Goalie 1: $6 million (Andersen $5 million)
Goalie 2: $1 million

James van Riemsdyk isn't accounted for, since we have no idea if he'll be part of the team in 3-4 years and what salary he will command. In any case, there's money for an $8 million defenseman, and $30 million for our top 4 forwards (Matthews, Stamkos, Nylander, Marner).

I haven't factored in the buyouts and retained salary on Kessel, but Gardiner, Rielly and Andersen all came in at a million per less than expected. Kadri came in $0.5 million more than his spot. If Rielly grows into a legit number one, he slides up a spot and we don't need to pay a guy $8 million and can spread it out on depth. Depending on how Matthews, Marner and Nylander play in their ELCs, they could come in much cheaper than the worst case scenarios.

All in all, not bad so far...

Click to read more...

 

[BayStreetBully]

JVR and Komarov are gone in this scenario. We'd have to keep drafting well to have a continuous supply of overachievers on their ELC and second contracts.

 

[Stephen]

JVR and Komarov are gone in this scenario. We'd have to keep drafting well to have a continuous supply of overachievers on their ELC and second contracts.

Yeah I don't really mind if they're gone for the right price. 3-4 years is a long time. If they help bring in cost controlled young players on ELCs to come in behind our current crop, that's ok. But then again, we could keep them if we don't go for the big upgrades.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Yeah I don't really mind if they're gone for the right price. 3-4 years is a long time. If they help bring in cost controlled young players on ELCs to come in behind our current crop, that's ok. But then again, we could keep them if we don't go for the big upgrades.

I think the lineup cost you presented is pretty decent. I think it would be a cup contender if all 4 of Stamkos, Matthews, Marner and Nylander pan out the way we want.

By the time we are good, I think we can convince Ontario boys to take a home town discount to play on the 3rd and 4th lines to be a part of potential history. They won't be stars, and their only real chance at immortality is to be a part of a contending Leafs' team, and be the new set of Tucker and Domi (and more, if we win it all).

Another alternative, if we have the good fortune of watching all 4 of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Stamkos turn into stars, would be to keep 3 of them, and trade 1 away for a good defenceman or blue chip prospects or high picks, to allow for a more well-rounded lineup. But that's a nice luxury to have anyway. We'd have to first get Stamkos, and then watch all 3 youngsters turn into stars.

However, as much as I'd like Stamkos, I don't think the Leafs will pursue him TOO hard. Just basing off Babcock's comments a few weeks ago.

 

[Stephen]

I think the lineup cost you presented is pretty decent. I think it would be a cup contender if all 4 of Stamkos, Matthews, Marner and Nylander pan out the way we want.

By the time we are good, I think we can convince Ontario boys to take a home town discount to play on the 3rd and 4th lines to be a part of potential history. They won't be stars, and their only real chance at immortality is to be a part of a contending Leafs' team, and be the new set of Tucker and Domi (and more, if we win it all).

Another alternative, if we have the good fortune of watching all 4 of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Stamkos turn into stars, would be to keep 3 of them, and trade 1 away for a good defenceman or blue chip prospects or high picks, to allow for a more well-rounded lineup. But that's a nice luxury to have anyway. We'd have to first get Stamkos, and then watch all 3 youngsters turn into stars.

However, as much as I'd like Stamkos, I don't think the Leafs will pursue him TOO hard. Just basing off Babcock's comments a few weeks ago.

Rielly is a bit of a wild card in this instance. If he pans out as an elite number one defenseman, we're laughing - spread that money throughout the rest of the roster.

If he's a great number 2, you'll need to go big game hunting to bring in a big time defenseman, or develop one and then pay him big bucks. In any case the latter scenario for getting a defenseman in front of Rielly means we have to pay upwards of $8 million potentially, but if we draft/develop that guy he likely won't be at that level in 3-4 years time.

 

[Banana Squid]

This is a cool thread. The roster breakdown is interesting. Is Matthews or Stammer the 10m player?

 

[Menzinger]

an interesting breakdown. You can definitely make things work for the next 5ish years, which would be fine for the Leafs primary window of contention with the current core.

Things would be tight mind you - it's definitely a top heavy lineup. You're likely relying on ELC type players to fill out the 4th line.

 

[Daisy Jane]

an interesting breakdown. You can definitely make things work for the next 5ish years, which would be fine for the Leafs primary window of contention with the current core.

Things would be tight mind you - it's definitely a top heavy lineup. You're likely relying on ELC type players to fill out the 4th line.

that shouldn't be a glitch though.
elcs or bare minimum league contracts playing out of their minds.

 

[thewave]

Reworked For Leafs

Forward 1: $10m Stamkos
Forward 2: $6m Mathews @RFA
Forward 3: $5m Marner @RFA
Forward 4: $5m Nylander @RFA
Forward 5: $6.5m JVR @UFA
Forward 6: $4.5m Kadri
Forward 7: $2m
Forward 8: $1.5m Veteran Project
Forward 9: $1.5m Veteran Project
Forward 10: $1.5m Veteran Project
Forward 11: $900,000 ELC
Forward 12: $900,000 ELC
((((45 Million))))

Defenseman 1: $5m Rielly
Defenseman 2: $4m Jake
Defenseman 3: $5m xxxxx
Defenseman 4: $2m xxxxx
Defenseman 5: $2m xxxxx
Defenseman 6: $2m xxxxx
Defenseman 7: $900,000 ELC
((((21 Million))))

Goalie 1: $6m Andersen
Goalie 2: $1m
((((7 Million))))

TOTAL: 73 Million

 

[Jeypic]

Reworked it a little more for Leafs

Forward 1: $10m Stamkos
Forward 2: $6m Mathews @RFA
Forward 3: $5m Marner @RFA
Forward 4: $5m Nylander @RFA
Forward 5: $6.5m JVR @UFA
Forward 6: $4.5m Kadri
Forward 7: $2m kapanen?
Forward 8: $1.5m soshnikov?
Forward 9: $1.5m brown?
Forward 10: $1.5m hyman?
Forward 11: $900,000 ELC
Forward 12: $900,000 ELC
((((45 Million))))

Defenseman 1: $5m Rielly
Defenseman 2: $4m Jake
Defenseman 3: $5m Zaitsev?
Defenseman 4: $2m carrick?
Defenseman 5: $2m marincin?
Defenseman 6: $2m dermott?
Defenseman 7: $900,000 ELC
((((21 Million))))

Goalie 1: $5m Andersen
Goalie 2: $1m
((((6 Million))))

Kessel 1.2m
TOTAL: 73.2 Million

This is assuming the value of leipsic, leivo, percy, corrado, hunwick, komarov, bozack, gauthier, bernier, greening, lyndberg, valiev, Johnson, loov, Harrington, amount to zero increase towards our cap hit.

We have a lot of assets to use towards making this team better. But better players cost more.

The only contracts that look to be over paid on this list 4 years from now are stamkos and Zaitsev, however if we really want to compete in 4 years we'll need a #2 earning that money whether it's Zaitsev or not. The rest of those contracts look kinda cheap for the players attached to them. Especially if they've turned out good enough to make a run with.

We have to be in the mindset that this is our first cup run.. Matthews will only be 22. Stamkos will be 30. and it's only gonna be harder to manage the cap after that.

 

[Menzinger]

that shouldn't be a glitch though.
elcs or bare minimum league contracts playing out of their minds.

Right - and if Hunter and his team do their jobs Leafs should have continued influx of large talent.

That lineup means the third line would also likely have to rely on using one of the Leafs bluechip guys to be on it to elevate the play of the other two forwards since there also isn't a ton of money for those positions as well.

A depth chart structure like this proposed team would need to likely resemble the Pens recent cup team in terms of talent distribution.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It could work out like this - its possible. Hope your right.

Its easier though when forward #7 - 12 and defenders #3 - 7 are hypothetical.

Most teams end up having a veteran or veterans getting paid more (than $1.5m) that underperform. Even teams like Chicago, L.A., Washington and Pittsburgh were unable to avoid that.

Its certainly possible though that a lineup could work out like this as long as there are zero (retrospectively speaking) mistakes made.

 

[Stephen]

It could work out like this - its possible. Hope your right.

Its easier though when forward #7 - 12 and defenders #3 - 7 are hypothetical.

Most teams end up having a veteran or veterans getting paid more (than $1.5m) that underperform. Even teams like Chicago, L.A., Washington and Pittsburgh were unable to avoid that.

Its certainly possible though that a lineup could work out like this as long as there are zero (retrospectively speaking) mistakes made.

Well, if we end up being stingy with the bridge and RFA contracts there will be more money for depth and be less top heavy, but I think it's a good frame work to have to help guide decisions being made. If a guy is the 7th best forward on the team, don't expect a $5 million deal, for example.

If we grab Stamkos at around $9 million, I think that will also help keep the kids from inflating too fast. Just having a pace car type contract will keep a lid on things. Same with the Rielly deal.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Reworked it a little more for Leafs

Forward 1: $10m Stamkos
Forward 2: $6m Mathews @RFA
Forward 3: $5m Marner @RFA
Forward 4: $5m Nylander @RFA
Forward 5: $6.5m JVR @UFA
Forward 6: $4.5m Kadri
Forward 7: $2m kapanen?
Forward 8: $1.5m soshnikov?
Forward 9: $1.5m brown?
Forward 10: $1.5m hyman?
Forward 11: $900,000 ELC
Forward 12: $900,000 ELC
((((45 Million))))

Defenseman 1: $5m Rielly
Defenseman 2: $4m Jake
Defenseman 3: $5m Zaitsev?
Defenseman 4: $2m carrick?
Defenseman 5: $2m marincin?
Defenseman 6: $2m dermott?
Defenseman 7: $900,000 ELC
((((21 Million))))

Goalie 1: $5m Andersen
Goalie 2: $1m
((((6 Million))))

Kessel 1.2m
TOTAL: 73.2 Million

This is assuming the value of leipsic, leivo, percy, corrado, hunwick, komarov, bozack, gauthier, bernier, greening, lyndberg, valiev, Johnson, loov, Harrington, amount to zero increase towards our cap hit.

We have a lot of assets to use towards making this team better. But better players cost more.

The only contracts that look to be over paid on this list 4 years from now are stamkos and Zaitsev, however if we really want to compete in 4 years we'll need a #2 earning that money whether it's Zaitsev or not. The rest of those contracts look kinda cheap for the players attached to them. Especially if they've turned out good enough to make a run with.

We have to be in the mindset that this is our first cup run.. Matthews will only be 22. Stamkos will be 30. and it's only gonna be harder to manage the cap after that.

Interesting and more useful that you put player names into the slots versus hypothetical players.

I would assume the thinking was that these bolded players all ended up with bridge contracts versus a (RFA) contract that would eat into the UFA years.

That would mean these players either underperformed, or minimally, did not break out or over-perform to the extent that they did not warrant a contract that ate into their UFA years.

I believe that's what your saying, and if so, its a reasonable point.

 

[Stephen]

Those are reasonable points, but also reasonable to assume a Soshnikov might be useful for the life of his ELC and a short bridge, then gets swapped out for another kid signed/drafted in 2018 on a new ELC.

But then again, I'm also making room for 5-6 big ticket items, so there could be fewer of those too to give more breathing room.

 

[Duke Silver]

Comes in very close to some calculations I did about a month ago.

Took a look at the four remaining teams in the playoffs and got an average of the percentage breakdown of their salary structure for forwards, defenders and goaltending:

Forwards: 58.5%
Defenders: 32.7%
Goalies: 10.1%

Let's say the cap goes up an average of $1M until Matthews and Marner are due for raises in 2019-20. It will be at $76M by then. Those percentages at $76M are:

Forwards: ~$45M
Defenders: ~$25M
Goalies: ~$7M