A Closer Look at the last 20 Ross Races ('94-'14)

Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,144
14,456
2000-01 scoring race

2001_scoring_race.png


I looked at the scoring results for eight players - Jagr, Sakic, Elias, Allison, Straka, Kovalev, Bure and Weight. (For fun I included Lemieux in the chart to see how quickly he narrowed the gap).

Jason Allison probably led the NHL in scoring from October 5th (his first game, on the second day of the NHL season). I say "probably" because I only looked at the eight players listed above. It's possible someone had a hot streak over the first few games and surpassed all of the NHL's ultimate scoring leaders. Allison was the NHL's scoring leader for 40 days (from October 5th, up to and including November 13th). Doug Weight jumped ahead for two days, then Allison was again in the lead from November 16th to November 24th. In total, Allison was the NHL`s scoring leader for 49 out of the first 52 days of the regular season. He had an awful stretch of 6 points over 17 games (not calendar days - 1 goal and 5 assists over 17 games) that killed his chance of winning the Art Ross.

Doug Weight dominated the second half of November. In a span of 21 days (November 12th to December 2nd) he was the NHL`s scoring leader 13 days (either tied or outright). He tied Allison for the lead on November 12th, broke the tie on the 14th, before Allison jumped back on the 16th. He then tied Allsion again on the 23rd, broke the tie on the 25th, and was beaten by Sakic on December 1st. (He tied Sakic on the 2nd but never caught up).

Joe Sakic led the league in scoring for three months. He took the scoring title from Weight December 1st; Weight tied the next day and Sakic took sole possession of the lead on December 3rd. He maintained sole possession of first place until February 6th (66 days) and was first (either solely or tied) all the way until February 15th (77 days). Jagr briefly jumped ahead on the 16th but Sakic retook the lead the next day and was first (solely or tied) up until March 2nd. Jagr jumped ahead on March 3rd, but Sakic tied on the 4th and maintained a share of the lead until the 6th. In total, Sakic was the leading scorer for 94 out of 96 days (he was tied eight of those 94 days, and otherwise has sole possession of the lead).

Jaromir Jagr had sole possession of the lead for 15 days (March 7th to 21st). From the 22nd to 28th, Sakic kept on jumping ahead, and Jagr kept on tying. Finally, on March 29th, Jagr scored 4 points and held his lead for the rest of the season (which ended April 8th). Prior to Lemieux's return, Jagr had 37 points in 36 games (which was a huge disappointment based on his standards). After Le Magnifique's return, Jagr had 84 points in 45 games.

It was clear by January 27th that this was a two person race. Jagr and Sakic were fighting it out, but nobody else was within 15 points points of the leader. Third place shifted hands a lot - Allison, Weight, Kovalev, Straka and Bure all had possession of it at some point. Patrik Elias, who ultimately finished third, had a great hot streak to end the season (39 points in his last 21 games). As late as February 25th (just over six weeks to go) he 20 points out of third place! He was only actually in third place the last three days of the season.

Pavel Bure was another player with a bipolar season. In his first 50 games he had 25 goals, but only 42 points. Over his last 32 games he had 34 goals and 50 points.

Look at how quickly Lemieux cuts into everyone's lead! I remember there was talk about him catching up and winning the Art Ross. That was almost impossible, given that he didn't start until late December, but he easily could have climbed to third place if he began a month earlier. Here's the craziest Lemieux stat. On December 27th (immediately prior to his return), Weight was 3rd in scoring with 43 points. Lemieux cut that lead to just 16 points in a little over three months!
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Chrisgo

overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
5,271
2,807
Just saw this thread now. It's a fun read.

A note on 2007-08 - Daniel Alfredsson briefly passed Lecavalier for the scoring lead after Game 50 when he scored 7 points against the Lightning.
 

Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
5,169
303
bohemia
Just saw this thread now. It's a fun read.

A note on 2007-08 - Daniel Alfredsson briefly passed Lecavalier for the scoring lead after Game 50 when he scored 7 points against the Lightning.

Thanks, that required a major revision to that tumultuous stage of the race. Not sure what happened, as I don't have access to my original files.

Have you updated your adjusted plus-minus data since 2017? That's one of the best studies I've ever seen. Relatively simple in concept, but at the same time brilliant in both concept and execution.

Is there any place to find the playoff ES data that I've seen posted piecemeal by others in past threads?
 

morehockeystats

Unusual hockey stats
Dec 13, 2016
617
296
Columbus
morehockeystats.com
Thanks, that required a major revision to that tumultuous stage of the race. Not sure what happened, as I don't have access to my original files.

Have you updated your adjusted plus-minus data since 2017? That's one of the best studies I've ever seen. Relatively simple in concept, but at the same time brilliant in both concept and execution.

Is there any place to find the playoff ES data that I've seen posted piecemeal by others in past threads?
what particular data are you looking for?
 

Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
5,169
303
bohemia
what particular data are you looking for?

Mainly the playoff data for even strength (ESGF & ESGA for individual players and for teams). I assume this isn't too difficult to find for recent years, but in past decades it doesn't seem widely available, at least at the individual level (or without tedious and time consuming work in the case of teams).
 

morehockeystats

Unusual hockey stats
Dec 13, 2016
617
296
Columbus
morehockeystats.com
Mainly the playoff data for even strength (ESGF & ESGA for individual players and for teams). I assume this isn't too difficult to find for recent years, but in past decades it doesn't seem widely available, at least at the individual level (or without tedious and time consuming work in the case of teams).
You can get data of on-ice players for all goals starting around 1999. Before that it's only +- which is only aggregate per game and contaminated by SHG.
I can dump for you all the goals that have on ice information. It will be a JSON output from bsondump.
 

Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
5,169
303
bohemia
You can get data of on-ice players for all goals starting around 1999. Before that it's only +- which is only aggregate per game and contaminated by SHG.
I can dump for you all the goals that have on ice information. It will be a JSON output from bsondump.

It seems like there are at least some that have data going back much farther. Maybe it's estimated, as I've tinkered with that myself.
 

Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
5,169
303
bohemia
I wonder how.
The first official reports featuring detailed on-ice situation are from 1999/11/12, BOS-OTT. Some of the 99/00 season reports are missing.

Not sure. My guess is it's been estimated based on the playoff plus-minuses and from more detailed data from regular season it either hasn't been made clear or I missed that part.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad