60 Goals for Drai?

[User9992]

Will Leon Draisaitl score 60 Goals this season or not?

Leon currently has 20 Goals in 20 Games. He has to score 40 Goals in remaining 62 Games to reach '60 Goals' mark.

Also another question...


Will he win Maurice 'Rocket' Richard too?

Leon currently has 20 Goals in 20 Games, Ovechkin is 2'd with 19 Goals in 22 Games.

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[Sweetpotato]

66 is my random guess this season for Leon.

 

[bobholly39]

He won't score 60 goals and won't win the Rocket.

Ovechkin is usually a slow starter and a strong finisher - so his hot start actually bodes very well for goals scored. Very good chance his point scoring pace slows down a lot, but this hot start should be enough to finish ahead for goals as he usually does.

I also think Matthews will come roaring back and make a race of it before it's all said and done.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I think Leon hits low 60s, Ovechkin still wins Rocket though.

 

[AvroArrow]

He's given himself a great start, I think he does it. The PP is rolling and clearly this isn't some "hot stretch" It's about 80 consecutive games now that he's been on a tear.

 

[filinski77]

He's given himself a great start, I think he does it. The PP is rolling and clearly this isn't some "hot stretch" It's about 80 consecutive games now that he's been on a tear.

From a goal-scoring perspective, this is absolutely a "hot stretch". Nothing about his goal/gp rate is sustainable when you consider his inflated shooting% AND shooting volume.

He has a great shot at 60 goals and the rocket, but it's still definitely a hot stretch lol.

	Games	Goals	G/GP	Shooting%	Shots/gp
18/19	82	50	0.61	21.60%	2.82
19/20	71	43	0.61	19.70%	3.07
20/21	56	31	0.55	18.50%	3.00
21/22	20	20	1.00	28.60%	3.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[sr edler]

Sure, he can score 60 goals, there's a good chance. He's already scored 50 in a year in this league, so this isn't some novice like Michael Grabner or Brandon Pirri on a hot streak.

If he scores at a 0.64 GPG rate from here on and in, which is very similar to his pace from his 18–19 & 19–20 seasons, then he hits 60.

 

[Regal]

I doubt he hits 60. He’s not a volume shooter and while he’ll keep a high shooting percentage, he won’t keep up where he is now. If he keeps up his current shots per game (3.5), which is already higher than usual, and shoots his career best (21.6), he’d be at 62 goals, so it’d be a close call even under the best circumstances. I suspect he’ll more likely be in the 50s.

As for the Richard, he certainly has a good chance, but hard to say. I think Ovechkin is more likely at this point given his history and where they both are currently.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Neither.

As already mentioned, his sh % will come down and he's not a volume shooter. PPs also tend to go down as the season goes on and I doubt the Oilers keep their current success rate. OV is shooting a sustainable % and will score more PPGs as the caps get healthy.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think he'll score 60, assuming he is healthy for all 82 games.

Obviously yes his shooting% will come down, but its not like this is a player coming out of nowhere. He's been sniping at around the 20% mark for the past 3 years. If he stayed at this shooting percentage he'd score 82 goals in 82 games, so even with the planned regression I think he has a great shot at scoring 40 goals in his next 62 games.

I don't think theres any chance he scores 60 and that doesn't win the rocket. 61 goals would be the highest goal total of the past 14 years, no way more than 1 player eclipses that mark.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

He won't score 60 goals and won't win the Rocket.

Ovechkin is usually a slow starter and a strong finisher - so his hot start actually bodes very well for goals scored. Very good chance his point scoring pace slows down a lot, but this hot start should be enough to finish ahead for goals as he usually does.

I also think Matthews will come roaring back and make a race of it before it's all said and done.

You honestly believe that a 36 year old Ovi is more sustainable than 26 year old Draisaitl? I think on pure age alone Draisaitl has a better chance to maintain his offense as the 82 game season goes along.

It's also pretty weird logic to suggest that:

Normally
Ovi starts slow --> finishes hot
must mean that this year
Ovi starts hot --> finishes hotter

 

[filinski77]

You honestly believe that a 36 year old Ovi is more sustainable than 26 year old Draisaitl? I think on pure age alone Draisaitl has a better chance to maintain his offense as the 82 game season goes along.

It's also pretty weird logic to suggest that:

Normally
Ovi starts slow --> finishes hot
must mean that this year
Ovi starts hot --> finishes hotter

I think both of their paces are unsustainable, but Drai's is more unsustainable.

Ovechkin:

Year	Shooting %	Shots/gp
2019	15.1%	4.17
2020	15.4%	4.57
2021	13.2%	4.04
3Y avg	14.6%	4.26
2022	20.0%	4.32
2022 increase	37%	1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Draisaitl:

Year	Shooting %	Shots/gp
2019	21.6%	2.82
2020	19.7%	3.07
2021	18.5%	3.00
3Y avg	19.9%	2.96
2022	28.6%	3.50
2022 increase	43%	18%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Khomutov]

Neither.

As already mentioned, his sh % will come down and he's not a volume shooter. PPs also tend to go down as the season goes on and I doubt the Oilers keep their current success rate. OV is shooting a sustainable % and will score more PPGs as the caps get healthy.

I don't know, he is shooting right now at 20%. Ovechkins career average is 12.9

 

[34]

Neither.

 

[Regal]

I think both of their paces are unsustainable, but Drai's is more unsustainable.

Ovechkin:

Year	Shooting %	Shots/gp
2019	15.1%	4.17
2020	15.4%	4.57
2021	13.2%	4.04
3Y avg	14.6%	4.26
2022	20.0%	4.32
2022 increase	37%	1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Draisaitl:

Year	Shooting %	Shots/gp
2019	21.6%	2.82
2020	19.7%	3.07
2021	18.5%	3.00
3Y avg	19.9%	2.96
2022	28.6%	3.50
2022 increase	43%	18%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I think the shots is the big one. Ovechkin always shoots a ton. This is basically the bare minimum Draisaitl would have to shoot to score 60, and it’s already higher than usual.

 

[bobbyking]

stamkos scored 60 in a lower scoring season and Stamkos at his best is nowhere near what draisatl currently is.... I'd say no just because the consistency needed is absurd..but hes definitely got the talent to get close.... I think he finishes with 55

 

[jetsforever]

I'll say Rocket but not 60 goals

 

[leafsfan5]

stamkos scored 60 in a lower scoring season and Stamkos at his best is nowhere near what draisatl currently is.... I'd say no just because the consistency needed is absurd..but hes definitely got the talent to get close.... I think he finishes with 55

Stamkos at his best was a better goal scorer than Draisaitl currently is

 

[jetsforever]

stamkos scored 60 in a lower scoring season and Stamkos at his best is nowhere near what draisatl currently is.... I'd say no just because the consistency needed is absurd..but hes definitely got the talent to get close.... I think he finishes with 55

Stamkos might not have been as good overall but as a goal-scorer he was insane.

 

[ESH]

He won't score 60 goals and won't win the Rocket.

Ovechkin is usually a slow starter and a strong finisher - so his hot start actually bodes very well for goals scored. Very good chance his point scoring pace slows down a lot, but this hot start should be enough to finish ahead for goals as he usually does.

I also think Matthews will come roaring back and make a race of it before it's all said and done.

If you look at his splits the last few seasons, there’s not really any evidence he finishes seasons stronger than he starts them.

 

[JoVel]

stamkos scored 60 in a lower scoring season and Stamkos at his best is nowhere near what draisatl currently is.... I'd say no just because the consistency needed is absurd..but hes definitely got the talent to get close.... I think he finishes with 55

Peak Stamkos is only 2nd to Ovechkin when it comes to goal scorers in the 21st century.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

I don't know, he is shooting right now at 20%. Ovechkins career average is 12.9

Meant to say more sustainable sh % lol.

 

[Kerberos]

He'll score 60 and he'll win the Rocket while finishing with 140 points.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

He's doing amazing but shooting percentage will drop, pp will cool off, and schedule will get much tougher. 50-55 should be doable though.

 

[Aceboogie]

50-55. Draisaitl also does have stretches where he goes cold. The PP will also cool off