6 of the bottom 10 teams in CF% 5on5 have a record above .500.

[GoldOnGold]

Preds are an amazing team when tied, a good team when trailing, and are almost the worst team in the league when leading.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Pretty much confirms what I have seen from Devils games visually. They are happy to concede shots from the outside at a high volume, but play to try and protect the middle. At the other end, they tend to hold onto the puck to try and get a good scoring chance instead of throwing the puck at the net.

I have a problem with this kind of system. All teams generate and allow between 9 and 12 HD chances per 60 minutes depaending on your source. So no matter what system you use, it makes very little difference in HD chance percentage. All that work a team does in order to prevent HD chances has very little effect overall, and all it does is allow the opposition to wear you down in the defensive zone.

But that being said, I'm of the belief there is no such thing as a zero danger shot. Not to mention it's essentially a given you will still get and allow 9-12 HD chances. So why not improve your chances of scoring by taking more lower danger shots? Again it won't affect your ability to still get HD chances.

BTW, this also explains why goalies who have a larger percentage of low shot volume games have deflated SV%'s, ie Quick, Brodeur, Osgood, and Belfour. Every goalie will on average face about 10-ish HD chances per game no matter how many total shots he faces. Goalies who face 30 shots on a regular basis will face 9-12 HD chances per game, and goalies who face 25 shots on a regular basis will face 9-12 HD chances per game.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Part of this is score effect as well. Often teams end up getting outshot while defending a lead, good teams tend to lead more often.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Part of this is score effect as well. Often teams end up getting outshot while defending a lead, good teams tend to lead more often.

This is true too. But teams most of the time don't hold leads for the full 60 minutes.

 

[snipes]

but it is easy to see why the Oilers are in the position they are in despite good 5 on 5 possession metrics... They have a terrible PP and a terrible PK and their goaltending has been sub par. Doesn't really matter if you are winning 5 on 5 if you are giving up some soft goals and losing the special teams battle most nights.

Bingo, and to me special teams results are on the coaches and their systems. Some firings need to happen yesterday.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Corsi is as overrated as plus minus used to be

The game is about scoring and preventing goals. Not getting and preventing shots.

Why is that so hard to understand?

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Corsi is as overrated as plus minus used to be

The game is about scoring and preventing goals. Not getting and preventing shots.

Why is that so hard to understand?

Well with bounces and s***, more shots usually = more goals, and vice versa.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Well with bounces and s***, more shots usually = more goals, and vice versa.

It’s not a direct relationship though.

It’s kinsa like Basketball in a way. Look at Steph Curry, you give him ten shots he’s going to score on a lot more of his shots then another player.

Sean Monahan/Gaudreau. Give them a hundred shots and they are going to score on probably 13-15. Where low end guys will score 6ish.

Look at Dennis Widemam. Stat community said he was okay because of his shot differentials. Realistically he was a train wreck because his mistakes were often and the type that lead to goals (ie leaving the cross ice pass open). I’ll take a Kris Russell or Mike Stone over a Dennis Wideman any day.

You need to get as many of those players that can finish plays and create goals with their chances. That’s what really matters.

Plus some teams tend to hold onto the puck more, get less shots but more high quality ones.

Plus there is the fact that good teams often go into a defensive shell more often.

There are so many factors. Shots is just the big craze right now. But it’s more complex than that.

 

[aufheben]

Corsi is as overrated as plus minus used to be

The game is about scoring and preventing goals. Not getting and preventing shots.

Why is that so hard to understand?

You can't score without shooting.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I have a problem with this kind of system. All teams generate and allow between 9 and 12 HD chances per 60 minutes depaending on your source. So no matter what system you use, it makes very little difference in HD chance percentage. All that work a team does in order to prevent HD chances has very little effect overall, and all it does is allow the opposition to wear you down in the defensive zone.

But that being said, I'm of the belief there is no such thing as a zero danger shot. Not to mention it's essentially a given you will still get and allow 9-12 HD chances. So why not improve your chances of scoring by taking more lower danger shots? Again it won't affect your ability to still get HD chances.

BTW, this also explains why goalies who have a larger percentage of low shot volume games have deflated SV%'s, ie Quick, Brodeur, Osgood, and Belfour. Every goalie will on average face about 10-ish HD chances per game no matter how many total shots he faces. Goalies who face 30 shots on a regular basis will face 9-12 HD chances per game, and goalies who face 25 shots on a regular basis will face 9-12 HD chances per game.

Based on naturalstattrick...you are wrong because some teams have very large % of shots genetated as hd ones and limit hd shots against.

 

[FinRanger]

I don't have the stats right now but I know that Rangers are in the top 3 in high danger scoring chances for. Quality > quantity for rangers.

 

[TT1]

Montreal is a top 2 advanced stats team in the NHL yet HF makes fun of us for how bad we are . Which is it, are we a good/unlucky team (according to advanced stats) or are we terrible (according to HF)?

 

[Gurilla]

How will the analytics crowd ever recover?

 

[Ducks in a row]

Top 10 worst teams in CF% 5on5 (From worst to best):
1. Anaheim: 11-11-6 45.61%
2. Minnesota: 13-11-3 46.54%
3. New Jersey: 16-7-4 46.55%
4. Arizona: 7-18-5 47.03%
5. NY Rangers: 15-10-2 47.76%
6. Colorado: 12-12-2 47.81%
7. Vancouver: 14-10-4 47.91%
8. Ottawa: 9-10-6 47.98%
9. Washington: 16-11-1 47.99%
10. Nashville: 18-7-3 48.42%

In fact, New Jersey, Washington, Nashville, and the Rangers are all doing very well in their conference. What gives?

What gives is that you don't win or lose game based on your CF% 5on5 or any other advanced stat you win and lose based on the score of a game which comes from goals and a lot of goals are scored outside of 5on5.

 

[Pookie]

What gives?

1. Corsi is a shot counting stat. Only weakly correlated with outcomes

2. Ranking teams according to their possession assumes (falsely) that all teams play the game the same way. Every game. Every shift. And never adjust

3. Score effects aren't a thing. They are an adjustment made up to account for the variations we see. The rationale behind weighting shots taken while behind as less signicant has no purpose other than applying a factor to help explain results.

A shot is a shot. If more shots win games, report that. Don't fudge the numbers to fit the theory.

4. No one seems to be willing to tell us whether the variation within the range of data is actually statistically significant (ie a t test). Is a 49.8 much better than a 48.8? If so, what does it mean to wins? Odds of winning the Cup?

These "advanced" stats are so rudimentary it's really just a conversation piece at this point. Wouldn't put much stock in them.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Based on naturalstattrick...you are wrong because some teams have very large % of shots genetated as hd ones and limit hd shots against.

All teams generate between 9 and 12 HD chances.
All teams allow between 9 and 12 HD chances.

On top of that, most teams seem to allow as many chances as they generate.

 

[DJJones]

Corsi is a useless lie

 

[PerdFan]

In Nashville this season, the Preds find themselves most of the time playing with a 2-3+ goal lead. Of course, the score-adjusted shots against numbers are much better.

Their problem is not figuring out how they want to play with a lead. Do they want to keep their foot on the gas and keep pushing or turtle? So far turtling has not been working for them. They aren't the defensive minded Pred's teams of old. If they can keep pushing for 60 min their overall corsi numbers will improve. If not, the cardiac event statistics in Nashville are going to rise substantially starting around April.

 

[Syckle78]

Montreal is a top 2 advanced stats team in the NHL yet HF makes fun of us for how bad we are . Which is it, are we a good/unlucky team (according to advanced stats) or are we terrible (according to HF)?

Somewhere in the middle. Mediocre.

 

[Morgs]

NJ is being held together by high sh% and Cory Schneider's jockstrap.

Min is as per usual a Bruce Boudreau coached team.

Washington is being carried by their top-6 forwards, top-2 defenseman, and Holtby.

The Rangers are always a mystery.

 

[The Macho King]

NJ is being held together by high sh% and Cory Schneider's jockstrap.

Min is as per usual a Bruce Boudreau coached team.

Washington is being carried by their top-6 forwards, top-2 defenseman, and Holtby.

The Rangers are always a mystery.

NYR are missing Girardi.

 

[Coffey]

Montreal is a top 2 advanced stats team in the NHL yet HF makes fun of us for how bad we are . Which is it, are we a good/unlucky team (according to advanced stats) or are we terrible (according to HF)?

Oilers are top in 5 advanced stats or something.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Interesting article on Corsi:

Has team Corsi% lost its predictive nature? - Article - TSN

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

In Nashville this season, the Preds find themselves most of the time playing with a 2-3+ goal lead. Of course, the score-adjusted shots against numbers are much better.

Their problem is not figuring out how they want to play with a lead. Do they want to keep their foot on the gas and keep pushing or turtle? So far turtling has not been working for them. They aren't the defensive minded Pred's teams of old. If they can keep pushing for 60 min their overall corsi numbers will improve. If not, the cardiac event statistics in Nashville are going to rise substantially starting around April.

I get they're missing Ellis, but even their trailing stats have been worse than previous seasons by a lot. Still best record in the West, can't complain. Great special teams, and elite goaltending from Rinne thus far. Saros is also improving and was one of the best players during his last 3 starts.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Pretty much confirms what I have seen from Devils games visually. They are happy to concede shots from the outside at a high volume, but play to try and protect the middle. At the other end, they tend to hold onto the puck to try and get a good scoring chance instead of throwing the puck at the net.

Huh?

Hynes’ systems even before the NHL are notorious for leaving the middle point/high slot shots open constantly. The reason I believe being because Schneider is squared to the shot with vision, where he seems to shine. Hynes’ true fascination is with protecting the half-walls. Idk why.