.500 hockey for the balance of the season could mean playoffs

[Healfezza]

As the Senators finish off their 5th straight win, they have earned a good 7 point cusion in the hunt for a playoff birth. The team is depleated, but spirited in their quest to play each game like it is their last. Some days we get bailed out by goaltending, some days our team outplays opponents through effort and hard work.

In the past few seasons teams have been able to get into the playoffs with around 92pts in 82 games (sometimes less). If we convert that into a point-per-game ratio we would only need 28 points out of our remaining 28 games in order to make the playoffs.

All this being said I think it will be a tall task for the Senators to get enough wins, but at least due to their strong start they have a little more leeway in their ability to make the post season.

Click to read more...

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

If we go on another 3-4 game winning streak soon, do you see Murray making a move early to help this team rather than trade deadline? It;s not uncommon with Bryan Murray.

 

[Healfezza]

If we go on another 3-4 game winning streak soon, do you see Murray making a move early to help this team rather than trade deadline? It;s not uncommon with Bryan Murray.

I think the only moves Murray would make at the deadline are ones that would increase our team strength moving forward into the future, something like the Turris trade. In the past Murray has made short term moves to solidify our team going into the postseason, but I think it was more based on the team's mentality of "win now". I think Murray knows the organization is looking to be stronger moving forward and won't sacrifice futures for short term assets.

If the right deal comes along that helps us now, but is also a young asset that we can control then he may pull the trigger.

 

[HavlatMach9]

If Spezza returns with a good amount of games left to play in the season, our playoff chances could be good. Michalek and Lats should hopefully return soon.

 

[Tundraman]

Funny I just looked at that earlier. I based it on 94 points and your in for an 82 game schedule. With 28 games left and 26 points in the bank they would need to win the equivalent of 14 games (28 points) + 1 more point for a total of 55 points over the 48 game schedule.

Earned points %
48 x 2 = 096 max points 55/096 =0.5729 or 57%
82 x 2 = 164 max points 94/164 =0.5732 or 57%

An extra win or 2 would be nice but it is certainly within reach now.

 

[Rumcajs]

Unless the deadline player will go long-term I doubt Murray will pull another Matt Cullen.

 

[SilverSeven]

Odds are certainly that they make it. I dont know what to think though. IMO this team is just as likely to continue its torrid pace as it is to crash and burn starting next game.

 

[danishh]

you're both right, i guess.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Ottawa.html

55pts = 90% chance of playoffs.
54pts = 76.8% chance of playoffs
53pts = 57% chance of playoffs.
52 pts = 35% chance of playoffs.

 

[Step]

I was reluctant to think that Murray might grab someone for the playoffs. Actually...how much room do we have, cap-wise?

 

[Topside]

I was reluctant to think that Murray might grab someone for the playoffs. Actually...how much room do we have, cap-wise?

The cap floor is more of an issue than the cap ceiling.

 

[Step]

The cap floor is more of an issue than the cap ceiling.

But don't Spezza's and Karlsson' salaries still count?

 

[bacon25]

In the easy East I think the Sens will have a good chance to sliding into the playoffs. Lots of bottom feeders right now that need to blow things up (looking at you Buffalo, Washington).

 

[danishh]

But don't Spezza's and Karlsson' salaries still count?

we can add 68M at the deadline, in other words, we can do whatever we want.
we can lose only ~20M (we dont have 20M to sell, dont worry).

basically, anything is possible for the sens under the cap.

 

[BonkTastic]

we can add 68M at the deadline, in other words, we can do whatever we want.
we can lose only ~20M (we dont have 20M to sell, dont worry).

basically, anything is possible for the sens under the cap.

The infinite is possible... the only limit is yourself.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

I was reluctant to think that Murray might grab someone for the playoffs. Actually...how much room do we have, cap-wise?

I'm pretty sure with prorating we could trade for the New York islanders and be under the cap still

 

[BonkTastic]

I'm pretty sure with prorating we could trade for the New York islanders and be under the cap still

NYI gets:
Bishop, Puempel, 2013 1st rounder, conditional 2014 2nd rounder

OTT gets:
NYI

 

[NyQuil]

That Tavares is looking good.

I saw a bit of him during the Spengler and he was awesome.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

NYI gets:
Bishop, Puempel, 2013 1st rounder, conditional 2014 2nd rounder

OTT gets:
NYI

If there's one franchise that would get in on that trade it's the NYI.

 

[OgieO]

We play the next 5 and 7 of our next 8 on the road. If we can get through this stretch at or above .500, we'll be in great shape for the playoffs.

Next 8 games:
@ Boston
@ Philly
@ NYI
@ Toronto
@ NYR
vs Boston
@ Montreal
@ Buffalo

Hoping we can squeak 4 wins out of that stretch of games, but it's going to be tough.

 

[Flamingo]

We play the next 5 and 7 of our next 8 on the road. If we can get through this stretch at or above .500, we'll be in great shape for the playoffs.

Next 8 games:
@ Boston
@ Philly
@ NYI
@ Toronto
@ NYR
vs Boston
@ Montreal
@ Buffalo

Hoping we can squeak 4 wins out of that stretch of games, but it's going to be tough.

A road trip is exactly what this squad needs right now. They were flat last night. Time to get the energy level back up with some elevator races and hallway ice fights.

 

[BondraTime]

The SE is really helping us out this year as well.

 

[Flamingo]

The SE is really helping us out this year as well.

Not if they keep handing points to our rivals in the Atlantic and NE.

 

[BondraTime]

Not if they keep handing points to our rivals in the Atlantic and NE.

It is better to have 1 terrible division, like the SE, then have 2 good teams in it. Even if they give those points out the teams in Atlantic and NE will even out through the more divisional games they play. It then basically becomes a 10 team race for 7 spots. Take out the Islanders and Sabres, and the odds look pretty good when you consider someone in those divisional games must lose points.

 

[mat_sens]

Right now, the 8th place is on pace for 51 points. Does the 54-55 point some of the guys are talking about factor in that they are only playing their own conference? or does it even change anything?

 

[koreaboy]

We play the next 5 and 7 of our next 8 on the road. If we can get through this stretch at or above .500, we'll be in great shape for the playoffs.

Next 8 games:
@ Boston
@ Philly
@ NYI
@ Toronto
@ NYR
vs Boston
@ Montreal
@ Buffalo

Hoping we can squeak 4 wins out of that stretch of games, but it's going to be tough.

if you gave me 8 pts out of this stretch right now i'd run with it and thank god.