Speculation: 50-in-50 Episode IV - A New Hope

[Black Gold Extractor]

Edmonton has had a player score 50 goals in his team's first 50 games three times in its history: Wayne Gretzky in 1981-82 (61 in 50), Wayne Gretzky in 1983-84 (61 in 50), and Wayne Gretzky in 1984-85 (53 in 50). (Kurri gets an "unofficial" 50-in-50 in 1984-85, scoring his 50th in Edmonton's 53rd game, but he missed three with injury at that point.)

So, how's Draisaitl doing so far? He's so far Edmonton's best hope for a fourth 50-in-50 season.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	13	14	14	28	11	4	8	6	0	5	44	31.8
Maurice Richard (1944-45)	13	12	3	15		8	9	3	0	2
Mike Bossy (1980-81)	13	10	7	17	-1	2	4	6	0	3	58	17.2
Wayne Gretzky (1981-82)	13	13	14	27	5	4	9	4	0	3	48	27.1
Wayne Gretzky (1983-84)	13	15	17	32	9	4	8	5	2	2	58	25.9
Wayne Gretzky (1984-85)	13	13	21	34	26	4	11	0	2	1	68	19.1
Mario Lemieux (1988-89)	13	18	23	41	13	14	11	4	3	2	61	29.5
Brett Hull (1990-91)	13	16	4	20	2	2	10	6	0	4	61	26.2
Brett Hull (1991-92)	13	8	7	15	1	6	5	2	1	2	73	11
AVERAGE (50-in-50 players)	13.0	13.1	12.0	25.1	7.9	5.5	8.4	3.8	1.0	2.4	61.0	22.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the average number of goals of the historical 50-in-50 scorers after 13 games is 13.1 goals. The biggest thing for continued success is likely going to be his willingness to shoot the puck more. On average, everyone else averaged 4.7 shots on goal per game while Draisaitl so far has averaged 3.4.

Actually surprisingly, though, Draisaitl is outpacing Gretzky's 1981-82 start when Gretzky ended up with 50 in 39. Perhaps it's a warning about small sample sizes. Perhaps it's a sign of better things yet to come.

Click to read more...

 

[Aerchon]

Im a numbers guy but this is just too premature.

Game 40 would be when I would start counting down a potential 50 in 50.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Im a numbers guy but this is just too premature.

Game 40 would be when I would start counting down a potential 50 in 50.

I know. I was mostly just curious about how well Draisaitl was doing so far relative to the all-time greats in raw numbers. If Draisaitl reverts to his career shooting percentage (18%) starting next game and continues with 3.4 shots on goal per game, he likely ends up with 37 in 50, which would be pretty close to Ovechkin's 39 in 50 in 2007-08 and 2009-10.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	13	14	14	28	11	4	8	6	0	5	44	31.8
Alex Ovechkin (2009-10)	13	14	9	23	10	8	11	3	0	2	85	16.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

An update, after tonight's win against St. Louis. Against all previous players with 50 goals in their team's first 50 games:

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	14	15	16	31	12	6	8	7	0	5	47	31.9
Maurice Richard (1944-45)	14	13	4	17		10	10	3	0	2
Mike Bossy (1980-81)	14	12	8	20	-1	2	4	8	0	3	61	19.7
Wayne Gretzky (1981-82)	14	15	14	29	6	6	11	4	0	3	51	29.4
Wayne Gretzky (1983-84)	14	15	20	35	12	4	8	5	2	2	60	25
Wayne Gretzky (1984-85)	14	13	24	37	27	6	11	0	2	1	70	18.6
Mario Lemieux (1988-89)	14	18	23	41	13	14	11	4	3	2	61	29.5
Brett Hull (1990-91)	14	16	5	21	3	2	10	6	0	4	64	25
Brett Hull (1991-92)	14	8	8	16	3	6	5	2	1	2	86	9.3
AVERAGE (50-in-50 players)	14.0	13.8	13.3	27.0	9.0	6.3	8.8	4.0	1.0	2.4	64.7	22.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lots of game-winning goals for Draisaitl so far, and he's still outpacing Gretzky's 1981-82 start. Now, here's Draisaitl versus Ovechkin:

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	14	15	16	31	12	6	8	7	0	5	47	31.9
Alex Ovechkin (2007-08)	14	9	7	16	3	6	4	5	0	1	73	12.3
Alex Ovechkin (2009-10)	14	14	9	23	10	12	11	3	0	2	86	16.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Wouldn't that be something? Imagine is Leon went for 50 in 50 and Connor and Leon both end up around 2 points a game!

 

[McJadeddog]

Way too early, but interesting nonetheless, thanks for doing this.

He certainly has a legit chance of getting 50 on the season again. Having 2 50+ goal seasons in a career is not a common thing to say the least, so that would be a monumental accomplishment. Crosby has 1, Stamkos has 2, Iginla has 2, Kovalchuk has 2, Heatley has 2, Jagr has 3, and Sakic has 2. Those are the more recent players with 2 or more, other than Ovi who has a ridiculous 8 (and looks to be adding a 9th this year). If Drai can manage to get his second this year, and yes, there is a long ways to go still, he'll cement himself as one of his generations most prolific scorers.

 

[ZJuice]

Is this what the 80’s were like? A little less mullet now and more pixels on the tv for sure

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Is this what the 80’s were like? A little less mullet now and more pixels on the tv for sure

I don't know. Mullets are making a comeback in a big way.

 

[ZJuice]

I don't know. Mullets are making a comeback in a big way.

I believe it. I’m essentially related to Joe Dirt now … he had one 10 years ago when it was still out of style and he’s brought it back

 

[Oilhawks]

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

After 15 games in,

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	15	17	16	33	11	10	8	9	0	5	51	33.3
Maurice Richard (1944-45)	15	14	4	18		10	11	3	0	2
Mike Bossy (1980-81)	15	15	8	23	3	2	7	8	0	3	68	22.1
Wayne Gretzky (1981-82)	15	15	14	29	5	6	11	4	0	3	59	25.4
Wayne Gretzky (1983-84)	15	19	23	42	16	4	11	5	3	2	66	28.8
Wayne Gretzky (1984-85)	15	15	28	43	32	6	12	0	3	2	79	19
Mario Lemieux (1988-89)	15	19	24	43	10	14	11	5	3	2	63	30.2
Brett Hull (1990-91)	15	17	5	22	3	2	10	7	0	4	69	24.6
Brett Hull (1991-92)	15	10	8	18	5	6	7	2	1	2	95	10.5
AVERAGE (50-in-50 players)	15.0	15.5	14.3	29.8	10.6	6.3	10.0	4.3	1.3	2.5	71.3	22.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	15	17	16	33	11	10	8	9	0	5	51	33.3
Alex Ovechkin (2007-08)	15	9	7	16	2	6	4	5	0	1	75	12
Alex Ovechkin (2009-10)	15	15	9	24	9	12	11	4	0	2	87	17.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I suppose that it's worth noting that the 15th game the Oilers played in 1983-84 was against Winnipeg. Gretzky scored 4 goals, tallied 3 assists, and went +4 en route to an 8-5 win.

 

[dark]

After 15 games in,

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	15	17	16	33	11	10	8	9	0	5	51	33.3
Maurice Richard (1944-45)	15	14	4	18		10	11	3	0	2
Mike Bossy (1980-81)	15	15	8	23	3	2	7	8	0	3	68	22.1
Wayne Gretzky (1981-82)	15	15	14	29	5	6	11	4	0	3	59	25.4
Wayne Gretzky (1983-84)	15	19	23	42	16	4	11	5	3	2	66	28.8
Wayne Gretzky (1984-85)	15	15	28	43	32	6	12	0	3	2	79	19
Mario Lemieux (1988-89)	15	19	24	43	10	14	11	5	3	2	63	30.2
Brett Hull (1990-91)	15	17	5	22	3	2	10	7	0	4	69	24.6
Brett Hull (1991-92)	15	10	8	18	5	6	7	2	1	2	95	10.5
AVERAGE (50-in-50 players)	15.0	15.5	14.3	29.8	10.6	6.3	10.0	4.3	1.3	2.5	71.3	22.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	15	17	16	33	11	10	8	9	0	5	51	33.3
Alex Ovechkin (2007-08)	15	9	7	16	2	6	4	5	0	1	75	12
Alex Ovechkin (2009-10)	15	15	9	24	9	12	11	4	0	2	87	17.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I suppose that it's worth noting that the 15th game the Oilers played in 1983-84 was against Winnipeg. Gretzky scored 4 goals, tallied 3 assists, and went +4 en route to an 8-5 win.

May I ask you where these stats are from?
Wanted to have a look myself who else got 17 G, 33 P in 15 GP. Believe I used to do this at hockey-reference.com but it seems you have to pay now for stats like that, yay.
And I can't find another source where I could filter that out.

Leon is the second Oiler to score 33+ P in 15 GP, but I wanted to see how that looks league-wide, for instance.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

May I ask you where these stats are from?
Wanted to have a look myself who else got 17 G, 33 P in 15 GP. Believe I used to do this at hockey-reference.com but it seems you have to pay now for stats like that, yay.
And I can't find another source where I could filter that out.

Leon is the second Oiler to score 33+ P in 15 GP, but I wanted to see how that looks league-wide, for instance.

Hockey-Reference still has data for individual players, but it no longer allows for combined season searches, etc., so it is a bit of a bother.

For example, here's the link for Maurice Richard's 1944-45 campaign.

 

[dark]

Hockey-Reference still has data for individual players, but it no longer allows for combined season searches, etc., so it is a bit of a bother.
...

Thanks, yea, that's what I was looking for. I believe it was possible to set it up to search for i.e. who ever scored 17+ goals in first 15 gp, or 33+ points in 15 gp. Stuff like that. Almost impossible to research those things manually lol.
Briefly thought about subscribing, but 8 bucks per month for a feature I'd probably use 5 to 10 times a year is way too much.
Shame that there's no (free) alternative

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Update after tonight's win in Arizona. Against players who scored 50 goals in their team's first 50 games:

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	19	20	20	40	13	14	9	10	1	6	67	29.9
Maurice Richard (1944-45)	19	19	6	25		27	14	5	0	2
Mike Bossy (1980-81)	19	19	11	30	7	2	8	11	0	3	83	22.9
Wayne Gretzky (1981-82)	19	19	22	41	9	6	15	4	0	3	76	25
Wayne Gretzky (1983-84)	19	24	30	54	23	4	15	5	4	2	79	30.4
Wayne Gretzky (1984-85)	19	18	33	51	32	6	14	0	4	2	100	18
Mario Lemieux (1988-89)	19	22	35	57	14	16	12	7	3	2	77	28.6
Brett Hull (1990-91)	19	19	7	26	3	4	12	7	0	5	83	22.9
Brett Hull (1991-92)	19	16	8	24	0	10	10	5	1	2	129	12.4
AVERAGE (50-in-50 players)	19.0	19.5	19.0	38.5	12.6	9.4	12.5	5.5	1.5	2.6	89.6	22.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Of the 50-in-50 players, only Gretzky in 1983-84 (24 in 19) and Lemieux in 1988-89 (22 in 19) had a faster goal-scoring start than Draisaitl this season. Draisaitl is also ahead of everyone in game-winning goals.

Against Ovechkin's couple of best seasons:

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV G	PP G	SH G	GW G	S	S%
Leon Draisaitl (2021-22)	19	20	20	40	13	14	9	10	1	6	67	29.9
Alex Ovechkin (2007-08)	19	13	8	21	3	6	8	5	0	1	107	12.1
Alex Ovechkin (2009-10)	19	17	10	27	11	29	13	4	0	3	104	16.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[dark]

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Im a numbers guy but this is just too premature.

Game 40 would be when I would start counting down a potential 50 in 50.

We’re halfway there now.

Consider me transfixed.